Federal Government & Politics II

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Originally Posted by Hecate

Yet housing was still relatively affordable back in 2011. So who was it that decided we should double down on increasing immigration in 2020? Harper? lol

And supply and demand isn’t rocket science. The liberals knew there was an under supply of housing when they decided to more than quadruple the amount of people coming here. They didn’t give two shits about the living conditions of Canadians.

We have a great natural experiment here. Did the Liberals decide to quadruple immigration to Canada? If they did, then it would be exceedingly unlikely that the UK Torys would have done the same. Like I said, these is market forces at work that only patient, deliberate regulation, honed over time, will tame. It's nothing short of a fantasy that the Liberals created this problem, or that results would have been different with a different government.

It's the same with the pandemic and ensuing inflation. Governments all over the west took different approaches and ended up with basically the same results.

It's funny that your takeaway from "housing bubble" is "affordable housing"

Originally Posted by lio45

Just because some problems were created by Trudeau, doesn’t automatically mean they won’t outlast him by a long time.

As I’ve opined for a while now, I think JT’s Pet Scheme of Great Real Estate Enrichment has reached near-unreversable levels at this point (which is why I’ve decided I’m not selling all my Canadian RE, despite the looming change in Federal government.)

Like that thread linked above ought to demonstrate, the Great Canadian Real Estate Ponzi Scheme predates Trudeau. Realistically, Canadian real estate should have collapsed in 2008.

For what it's worth, I ascribe tent cities more to acute COVID disruptions than expensive housing. They exploded here with the first lockdown and only now are things about back to normal.

I was recently in Victoria and Vancouver, where the homelessness situation seemed worse than and about the same as I remembered, respectively. I was also recently in Anchorage, which has an absolutely embarrassing tent-city right on the city's front lawn, so to speak. The city also had more people in obvious mental distress than even Vancouver. I'm confident this has nothing to do with Trudeau or Canada's housing crisis.

It's worth noting that most homeless aren't visible. So, while expensive housing causes homelessness, by now tent cities probably indicate over-capacity shelters and generally shit local government more than anything.

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

I think you're getting a bit too caught up in framing this as a partisan, left/right culture wars issue. And for some, it certainly is - but the prevailing criticism both here and across the country right now seems to moreso be one of basic government competence: something which knows no particular ideology - and something that both the British Tories and Canadian Liberals currently lack.

I think for most people, competence & good governance trumps ideology or partisanship when it comes to supporting (or not) a government. Will the Conservatives be any better on this front? I doubt it. But in a democracy, the only way to affect change is to vote out then incumbent - the Conservatives in this case are just the most viable alternative.

If the NDP hadn't completely shit the bed, they might have actually had a shot at forming government in this moment. Trudeau's Liberals are reviled and no one is particularly enthusiastic for PP's Conservatives - but alas, Jagmeet & the NDP braintrust have conspired to ensure they remain a perpetual third party. Realistically, our best case scenario is that PP runs an okay-but-not-great government for 4 years, and then a refreshed Liberal Party comes back in 2029 with some improved leadership and actual vision.

I'm happy to see you and Lio talk about this. I agree, and I think the balance of my post brought around my framing to the reality of creating competent government--it's not something that just happens. Representative democracy calls on us to endorse simple, ideologically driven non-solutions. But competently dealing with problems calls for a deliberate, iterative approach.

Going back to that natural experiment I talked about above, no matter who was in power in 2020, and whether they've stayed in power or not, the sweeping opinion across western democracies is that everyone was and is uniquely incompetent. My point is that, given the wealth and diversity of control groups, this nearly impossible. And, in fact, we've recently seen the fruits of competent government--controlled inflation and a return to economic growth. With time, we'll probably see governments take a similarly competent, drama-free approach to managing housing and immigration. And, just like managing inflation no longer involves breaking union workers' skulls or fixing prices, it won't involve drowning anyone or mass deportations.

Here, people say "Ampel stoppen", which is cute and all because the Red-Yellow-Green "Ampel" coalition government looks like a stoplight. But what have they done that needs stopping? If anything, they need go faster towards competently managing today's problems. The impending change of government here won't help. But the endless bullshit from Russia and the right ensures we'll have to endure more lost years before we get it right.

I do agree that it's time to change government in Canada. It's just a shame it'll mean one of the most poorly suited people for leadership to have ever entered Canadian politics will become PM and have four years to really hurt people, really make things worse, and profoundly embarrass us all. Hopefully the Liberals and NDP can clean house in the meantime.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I know others disagree but we never had an incompetent government in the way they have had over the past 5 years in the UK.

Thanks for your posts. You're right. I'd only argue that the UK's streak of incredible incompetence goes back to Cameron's stroke of self-defeating hubris in 2016. Each of the cast of oafs playing PM musical chairs since has only made it more obvious. As much as you want Trudeau out, I'm sure you agree that replacing him with a clown car of unelected bozos wouldn't improve anything.