From Vox:
Business owners are buying into a bogus myth about driving
NYC’s very good plan to fix traffic fell victim to a very bad argument. And it's not just New York.
by David Zipper
Jun 11, 2024, 4:30 AM PDT
A street corner in Lower Manhattan, which would have been affected by the congestion pricing policy scuttled last week by New York Gov. Kathy Hochul. Research consistently shows that business owners overestimate how many of their customers arrive by car. Maremagnum/Getty Images
Facing a barrage of criticism following her 11th-hour turn against congestion pricing in Manhattan, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul held a hastily planned press conference last Friday evening — not a time when politicians tend to spotlight issues they’re glad to talk about. Trying to justify her about-face, she invoked Manhattan merchants fearful that congestion pricing would cripple them by deterring suburban patrons unwilling to pay a $15 weekday toll on vehicles entering Manhattan south of 60th Street.
Small business owners are “deathly afraid that they’ll lose their customers who may come in from places like New Jersey,” she said, mentioning Comfort Diner, Townhouse Diner, and Pershing Square, whose owner is apparently “very happy” with her decision to slam the brakes on congestion pricing. Answering a question from the press, she added, “I encourage you to go to the next diner with me … watch the people come over and thank me.”
Hochul’s claims drew eyerolls from those wondering how many people were using a car to reach diners in the densest, most transit-rich county in the country — particularly Pershing Square, which is across the street from Grand Central Station. Transportation outlet Streetsblog accused the governor of “plutocratic populism” — deferring to the preferences of the affluent over the public interest — while a Gothamist reporter who visited all three of the restaurants spoke with one owner who vehemently denied ever discussing congestion pricing with her.
In New York City, where the majority of residents don’t own a car, it seems odd to assert that a policy benefitting transit users, pedestrians, and cyclists is bad for attracting customers. Commuters who drive into Manhattan have significantly higher incomes than others who work in the borough, so Hochul’s claim that killing congestion pricing would relieve New York’s cost of living crisis is just as suspect.
Even if Hochul is telling the truth about restaurateurs’ complaints, they're still a terrible justification for her flip-flop on congestion pricing. The same goes for public leaders elsewhere who scuttle other urban transportation reforms that merchants often loathe, such as replacing street parking with dedicated lanes for bikes and buses. When it comes to shoppers’ travel habits, small business owners simply don’t know what they’re talking about — and not just in New York.
Small business owners wildly overestimate how many customers arrive by car
In study after study in city after city around the world, researchers have found that merchants exaggerate the share of patrons who arrive by car and undercount those who walk, bike, or ride transit. Those misperceptions lead them to oppose transportation reforms that would limit the presence of cars and make urban neighborhoods cleaner, more pleasant, and less polluted — and would likely increase spending at their business, too.
Consider a 2021 study in Berlin, in which researchers asked 145 shopkeepers and over 2,000 shoppers about travel behavior. The share of shoppers who drove was 15 percent below what shopkeepers predicted, while the portion who took transit, walked, and biked was higher (by 8.1 percent, 6.2 percent, and 3 percent, respectively). Similarly, a 2011 study of Dublin concluded that business owners overestimated the percentage of customers arriving by car and undercounted those who didn’t. The same bias has been observed in Graz, Austria, and Bristol, England.
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