Quote:
Originally Posted by sentinel
The BIGGER issue to me is who can possibly be a good enough candidate to end Johnson's tenure so that he is only a one-term mayor? I cannot think of anyone right now, and THAT is what concerns me.
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Crudely, we can think of Chicago as five constituencies: North Side progressives, Loop business folks, Hispanics, Blacks, South Side St Patrick's Day Parade attendees
Johnson won because he was progressive and black and turnout was suppressed for his opponent. Both Vallas and Johnson has support that was broad, but quite shallow, coming out of a deep field, competitive field.
A candidate who can beat Johnson pretty easily would be 1) a black politician who appealed to the business community and who wasn't hated by progressives. 2) A hispanic politician who wasn't hated by the business community and appealed to progressives. The first candidate would split the black vote. The second candidate would get massive support from latinos. Both would turn out the anti-Johnson vote in the Loop and Jefferson Park.
Johnson would be easy to beat if the primary against him isn't too deep again. If there's rapid consolidation around any anti-Jonhson candidate, I think he's toast. If there's six black and six Latino candidates running, he'll still win the primary.
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