Downtowns are back

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by IluvATX

I always liked this thread. Keep ‘em coming Yuri. Do you have any info on Southeast Asia cities?

I can do it! The thing is, all those areas have been densely populated since ever, so we cannot expect a population surge. Moreover, they haven't experienced urban decline in the same degree of Northern American, European and Brazilian cities, paving the way for an urban renaissance that started in the 1990's.

In fact, many East Asian cities work as a big Downtown themselves, like:

--- Tokyo squeezing 9,733,276 people in only 627 km² (15,511 inh./km² density) and growing.

--- Kowloon plus northern half of Hong Kong Island: 3,164,590 in mere 88 km² for a super density of 35,961 inh./km², putting Manhattan and Paris to a shame;

--- Shanghai inner city: 6,683,712 in 289 km² for a density of 23,127 inh./km²;

--- Guangzhou inner city: 6,337,811 in 280 km² for a density of 22,635 inh./km²;

--- Seoul 9,586,195 people in 605 km² (15,839 inh./km² density).

[Yuri]

City Centre, Sheffield


Expedia

--------------------------------- 2021 ------ 2011 ------ 2001 ------ Growth -------- Area -------- Density

City Centre --------------------- 21,477 ----- 19,868 ------ 5,534 --------- (-) -------- 8.1% -- 259.0% ---- (-) -------- 3.6 km² -- 5,916 inh./km²

Sheffield ----------------------- 556,521 ---- 551,756 ---- 513,100 ---- 520,100 ----- 0.9% ---- 7.5% --- -1.3% ----- 368 km² ---- 1,513 inh./km²

Sheffield Urban Area ---------- 822,328 ---- 809,472 ---- 761,400 ---- 773,800 ----- 1.6% ---- 6.3% --- -1.6% ----- 654 km²

Sheffield Metro Area -------- 1,660,849 -- 1,622,722 -- 1,534,100 -- 1,557,200 ----- 2.3% ---- 5.8% --- -1.5% --- 2,054 km²

As they released more details of their census, we can see British cities, that also experienced urban decline in the 1970's are now seen their city centres booming. Things could be even worse as Covid really hit British urban areas hard.

Sheffield, the most typical rust belt city, centre of British steel industry, not only resumed its growth (immigration, take notice US) and saw its centre population to growth four fold. From 5,000 to 21,000 in mere 20 years.

[Yuri]

Resurrecting the thread almost three years later:

Downtown Montreal

------------------------------ 2021 ------ 2011 ------ 2001 ------ Growth ------ Density

Downtown --------------------- 25,680 ----- 15,530 ----- 10,350 ----- 65.4% --- 50.0% ------ 2.96 km² --- 8,667 inh./km²

Ville-Marie ----------------- 104,944 ----- 84,013 ----- 74,832 ----- 24.9% --- 12.3% ----- 16.5 km² ---- 6,360 inh./km²

Montreal ------------------ 1.762.949 -- 1.649.519 -- 1.584.400 ------ 6.9% ---- 4.1% ---- 364.7 km² ---- 4,834 inh./km²

Montreal CMA -------------- 4,291,732 -- 3,824,221 -- 3,426,350 ----- 12.2% --- 11.6% -- 4,604 km²

I commented elsewhere in thread that Canadian city centres would probably experience a less dramatic rise as they haven't experienced as much as urban decline as the US ones.

Their central cores are growing fast regardless.

[Yuri]

Downtown Vancouver

------------------------------ 2021 ------ 2011 ------ 2001 ------ Growth ------ Density

Downtown --------------------- 74,974 ----- 58,625 ----- 27,990 ----- 27.9% -- 109.4% ------ 4.32 km² -- 17,363 inh./km²

West End --------------------- 37,533 ----- 35,082 ----- 33,655 ----- 24.9% --- 12.3% ------ 1.61 km² -- 23,284 inh./km²

Vancouver ------------------- 662,248 ---- 603,502 ---- 545,671 ------ 9.7% --- 10.6% ---- 115 km² ------ 5,759 inh./km²

Vancouver Metro Area* --- 2,838,551 -- 2,483,519 -- 2,134,335 ----- 14.3% --- 16.4% -- 3,490 km²

Sadly Canadian Stats divided lots of census tracts Downtown Vancouver (due fast growth) and I couldn't find their numbers for 2001. I might be wrong, but from the curve and some 2006 numbers available, I would guess it had around 25,000 people in 2001. Another case of dramatic rise.

I brought West End too. As a consolidated and very dense residential area (23,000 people/km² !!!), it's not growing anymore. Similar to Westside in LA: very dense and flat growth as opposed to booming Downtown.

*Vancouver and Abbotsford CMAs.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Resurrecting the thread almost three years later:

Downtown Montreal

------------------------------ 2021 ------ 2011 ------ 2001 ------ Growth ------ Density

Downtown --------------------- 25,680 ----- 15,530 ----- 10,350 ----- 65.4% --- 50.0% ------ 2.96 km² --- 8,667 inh./km²

Ville-Marie ----------------- 104,944 ----- 84,013 ----- 74,832 ----- 24.9% --- 12.3% ----- 16.5 km² ---- 6,360 inh./km²

Montreal ------------------ 1.762.949 -- 1.649.519 -- 1.584.400 ------ 6.9% ---- 4.1% ---- 364.7 km² ---- 4,834 inh./km²

Montreal CMA -------------- 4,291,732 -- 3,824,221 -- 3,426,350 ----- 12.2% --- 11.6% -- 4,604 km²

I commented elsewhere in thread that Canadian city centres would probably experience a less dramatic rise as they haven't experienced as much as urban decline as the US ones.

Their central cores are growing fast regardless.

I'd love to see the stats (when available) for Montreal from 2021-2025. The pace of construction has been scorching.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I'd love to see the stats (when available) for Montreal from 2021-2025. The pace of construction has been scorching.

Toronto and Vancouver Census tracts based so it will available only after 2026 Census. Ditto for Montreal Downtown.

On Google I found estimates for Ville-Marie borough though: 117,823 (2023).

[Riverranchdrone]

Austin Tx in 1950 had a downtown population of 10,000 people. By 2000 that fell to only 4,000 people. The city council then came up with a plan to have 25000 people by 2015. In 2024 we were only able to get our population of downtown to 15360. Still a big change.

[Docere]

Canadian downtown populations, as defined by Statistics Canada:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail.../t005b-eng.htm

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Docere

Canadian downtown populations, as defined by Statistics Canada:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail.../t005b-eng.htm

Do they provide definitions for those Downtowns?

[Docere]

In the Appendix they have all the downtowns mapped:

https://www.150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub...021001-eng.htm

[Yuri]

Maps are tiny, hard to see. Montreal has a weird shape. It's not Ville-Marie or anything Google call "Downtown".

Vancouver boundaries looks ok (Downtown+West End) but numbers don't match. I left Stanley Park out and they have a tract inside West End, but not enough to explain the difference: 112k vs 121k.

I have Toronto done. I'll post it later. I checked on my one drive and it's a perfect match: 275,931. StatCan and I had to make a compromise though due the tracts shape: a piece of Summerhill is considered downtown. The Annex and Yorkville were considered Downtown by us, but not by Google Maps: the northern border ends at Bloor Street.

[Docere]

Ville-Marie is arguably more sensible than the Statistics Canada definition.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Docere

Ville-Marie is arguably more sensible than the Statistics Canada definition.

It's always better to stick with official jurisdiction when it's possible. I brought small versions of "Downtown" to keep consistency of my initial idea of the thread.

I had in mind places like Manhattan's Financial District and Chicago's Loop, that has always been full of offices and had virtually no one living there and welcomed tens of thousands of residents in this century. The phenomenon is broader though and even with larger definitions of Downtowns we can see a fast growth. Heck, even city propers started to grow faster than their suburbs for the first time ever.

Anyway, for Montreal I decided to use what Google called Downtown/Centre-Ville for the strict definition and I assume that's Montreal's financial district. Very health growth 10k to 25k in this century, mirroring NY and Chicago.

For Toronto, the Financial District takes only one tract (CT 0014) and it's tiny: only 0.4727 km². But they also experienced strong growth there: from 515 (2001) to 2,382 (2021).

[Yuri]

Downtown Toronto

------------------------------ 2021 ------ 2011 ------ 2001 ------ Growth ------ Density

Downtown ------------------- 275,931 ---- 177,446 ----- (?) ------- 55.5% ----- (?) ----- 16.7 km² --- 16,523 inh./km²

Old Toronto ----------------- 841,236 ---- 730,656 ---- 612,925 ----- 15.1% -- 19.2% ----- 97.1 km² ---- 8,664 inh./km²

Toronto ------------------- 2,794,356 -- 2,615,060 -- 2,481,494 ------ 6.9% --- 5.4% ---- 630 km² ------- 4,435 inh./km²

Toronto CMA -------------- 6,202,225 -- 5,583,064 -- 4,682,897 ----- 11.1% -- 19.2% -- 5,906 km²

Toronto Metro Area* ------ 7,568,308 -- 6,801,391 -- 5,758,940 ----- 11.3% -- 18.1% -- 8,775 km²

* Toronto, Hamilton, Oshawa and Guelph CMAs

Explosive growth on Downtown Toronto even though they already had a quite high density back in 2011. Unfortunately lots of tracts were split and I didn't find data for 2001.

Later I'll sort out tracts to get this inverted "T" shape to exclude the traditional residential/horizontal areas in northeast and northwest sections of Downtown.

[Docere]

To get more of a "proper" downtown definition for Toronto I'd probably have the western border shift from Bathurst to University Ave/Queen's Park once north of Queen and probably Jarvis on the east. Northern border at Davenport Rd.

[Wigs]

It's safe to say around 300,000 live in downtown Toronto. People can argue all day about what they think the boundaries should be