The US Census Bureau thread

[badrunner]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I think something is off with your 2010 numbers.

CA became a majority minority-state around 2000. I cannot believe that LA county was still majority white in 2010. It should have one of the lower white proportions of any major CA urban county. I don't think even Orange County was 50% white in 2010.

And LA city's white population seems pretty stable, and that's 40% of LA County. It would mean that LA County outside LA city basically had a mass evacuation of whites, Armenians and Persians included.

Yeah those numbers are misleading. LA county obviously wasn't 50% white ten years ago. In the 2010 census LA county was 4,936,599 (50%) white but Non-Hispanic whites numbered 2,728,321 (28%) with Hispanic or Latino residents of any race at 4,687,889 (48%). The shift in the white percentage results from Hispanic/Latinos who previously identified as white now identifying as multiracial, which is an interesting trend.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Boisebro

that is surprising, particularly since capital cities are typically healthy when it comes to population.

makes me wonder how all 50 capital cities fared in the last 10 years. seems as though capital cities like Austin, Madison, Boise, De Moines, Sacramento, etc. have all been trending upward.

The highest population declines by percentage are actually mostly southern rural counties this go around.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Boisebro

that is surprising, particularly since capital cities are typically healthy when it comes to population.

makes me wonder how all 50 capital cities fared in the last 10 years. seems as though capital cities like Austin, Madison, Boise, De Moines, Sacramento, etc. have all been trending upward.

Springfield, IL also fell slightly (to 114,394 from 116,250, a 1.6% decline).

[craigs]

Originally Posted by edale

I'd love to see a map of this! In addition to a large concentration in central LA, I imagine there are other 20k clusters in Long Beach and Santa Ana. And I bet a fair amount of these tracts are not especially 'urban' looking or pedestrian friendly.

There are some 20,000+ ppsm tracts in almost all areas of LA. For example, some 210,908 people live in such tracts just in the San Fernando Valley.

That said, the main clusters are indeed where one would expect, flowing northwest, west, southwest, south, and southeast of downtown, Long Beach, and to a lesser extent, Santa Ana. I was perhaps most surprised at how far the high density tracts extended south alongside the 110--that goes on for quite a distance.

The highest density tract in the LA MSA, 2073.04, is a couple big blocks bounded by S. Broadway, 5th, S. Spring, and 7th streets, and has a population density of 109,329 ppsm.

Originally Posted by mhays

I tallied 10,000/sm densities for Seattle as well.

Within city limits, I get 394,106 living at 10,000/sm or more. If I recall that's more than double the number from the last census. A lot of it was infill in tracts that weren't far off before.

Elsewhere in the metro I get 104,260 people.

That's solid density and a good start on the road to further densification. I wanted to tally the 10,000+ ppsm tracts for LA, but I soon realized I simply don't have the patience.

[ChiSoxRox]

Chicago - 1,236,115 in census tracts over 20,000 people per square mile.

That is the MSA; 60,860 outside the city limits.

I would be curious where the combined San Francisco and San Jose MSAs are in comparison. If still an open question for this weekend, I might tally that.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Chicago - 1,236,115 in census tracts over 20,000 people per square mile.

That is the MSA; 60,860 outside the city limits.

Good job! I know how tedious it is.

Were the tracts outside of Chicago proper along the lakeshore mostly?

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by craigs

Good job! I know how tedious it is.

Were the tracts outside of Chicago proper along the lakeshore mostly?

Aside from Evanston, the lakeshore outside of the city gets sparse. Large, forested wealthy commuter lots. The suburban density are inner ring municipalities like Oak Park and Berwyn. A random high density tract in Des Plaines as well.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Chicago - 1,236,115 in census tracts over 20,000 people per square mile.

That is the MSA; 60,860 outside the city limits.

I would be curious where the combined San Francisco and San Jose MSAs are in comparison. If still an open question for this weekend, I might tally that.

How are you guys doing that calculation? Just clicking around on the map? Is there a place where you can download the data in a tabular format? From the map would take forever in a place like Miami (or LA). The dense tracts are just all over the place. There are 50k density tracts way out in the burbs and 20k tracts literally spread out everywhere with no rhyme or reason.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by dave8721

How are you guys doing that calculation? Just clicking around on the map? Is there a place where you can download the data in a tabular format? From the map would take forever in a place like Miami (or LA). The dense tracts are just all over the place. There are 50k density tracts way out in the burbs and 20k tracts literally spread out everywhere with no rhyme or reason.

Speaking for myself, yes--clicking every tract of 10,000+ ppsm or more, and I'm not aware of any tables yet. And I think I speak for everyone: yes, it does indeed take forever.

So far, we've got three calculations of MSA total population in Census tracts with 20,000+ ppsm:

Los Angeles: 1,832,775
Chicago: 1,236,115
Seattle: 156,537

Thanks to ChiSoxRocks and mhays

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by craigs

Speaking for myself, yes--clicking every tract of 10,000+ ppsm or more, and I'm not aware of any tables yet. And I think I speak for everyone: yes, it does indeed take forever.

So far, we've got three calculations of MSA total population in Census tracts with 20,000+ ppsm:

Los Angeles: 1,832,775
Chicago: 1,236,115
Seattle: 156,537

Thanks to ChiSoxRocks and mhays

The Chicago clicking took probably three hours in total, but spread over two days due to the tediousness. On the Midwestern thread I also calculated (much quicker) figures for other Midwestern metros.

Twin Cities - 51,643
Milwaukee - 41,037
Madison - 35,514
Columbus - 31,592
Champaign - 22,271

Other metros had only a handful of tracts -- or zero. Since the others are so much smaller, we can leave them off the list. But they do put into stark perspective just how behemoth Chicago is for the Midwest.

[dimondpark]

In the 2020 Census, Alameda County, CA became only the 2nd in the US Mainland after neighboring Santa Clara, to have an Asian plurality---at 32% of census respondents claiming "Asian alone" as their race.



I live in Alameda County I think this is a very cool development, but I dont really notice this change in Oakland-Berkeley tbh---I think it's more pronounced down closer to San Jose and also in the inland areas of Pleasanton, Dublin and Livermore.

[Crawford]

Queens County will join Alameda and Santa Clara Counties very shortly. When you look at the rate of Asian growth, Queens might already be there in 2021.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Queens County will join Alameda and Santa Clara Counties very shortly. When you look at the rate of Asian growth, Queens might already be there in 2021.

Yeah, I would have thought this was already the case.

[Crawford]

Fremont is in Alameda County. Fremont feels super-Asian, and I think is culturally-economically more tied to Santa Clara County. It's expensive but much cheaper than the Peninsula and attracts a ton of techies.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Fremont is in Alameda County. Fremont feels super-Asian, and I think is culturally-economically more tied to Santa Clara County. It's expensive but much cheaper than the Peninsula and attracts a ton of techies.

Yes, Northern Alameda County where I live is like 15% Asian, but Fremont, Union City and Newark are like majority Asian----but also, Pleasanton, Dublin and San Ramon in the interior East Bay have very high Asian populations as well.

I must say, I was rather surprised that SF and San Mateo didnt beat Alameda to this milestone.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Aside from Evanston, the lakeshore outside of the city gets sparse. Large, forested wealthy commuter lots. The suburban density are inner ring municipalities like Oak Park and Berwyn. A random high density tract in Des Plaines as well.

Do you happen to have a list of the suburban Chicago tracts over 20K ppsm? I'm curious to know where the ones outside of Evanston and the Oak Oark/Cicero/Berwyn cluster are.



And yeah, once you're north of Evanston, the north shore burbs are not particularly dense. They go from streetcar suburb density tracts of around 6,000 ppsm in Wilmette to full blown mansion estate areas up in lake forest around 1,000 ppsm.

And going south/east out of the city, the lakefront in Indiana is gigantic steel mill industrial complexes and Indiana Dunes National Park, little if any high d nsity down there

[Crawford]

Maybe those increasingly Mexican west side inner burbs like Bridgeview, Burbank, Oak Lawn, etc. Bungalow belt areas that likely have higher than average household sizes.

[Urbanguy]

Top 100 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (M.S.A.) 2020 | 2010 | (% Growth)

1 . New York City-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA 20,140,470 18,897,109 ( 6.58% )
2 . Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA 13,200,998 12,828,837 ( 2.90% )
3 . Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 9,618,502 9,461,105 ( 1.66% )
4 . Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 7,637,387 6,366,542 ( 19.96% )
5 . Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 7,122,240 5,920,416 ( 20.30% )
6 . Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA 6,385,162 5,649,540 ( 13.02% )
7 . Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA 6,245,051 5,965,343 ( 4.69% )
8 . Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA 6,138,333 5,564,635 ( 10.31% )
9 . Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA MSA 6,089,815 5,286,728 ( 15.19% )
10 . Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH MSA 4,941,632 4,552,402 ( 8.55% )
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
11 . Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA 4,845,832 4,192,887 ( 15.57% )
12 . San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA MSA 4,749,008 4,335,391 ( 9.54% )
13 . Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 4,599,839 4,224,851 ( 8.88% )
14 . Detroit–Warren–Dearborn, MI MSA 4,392,041 4,296,250 ( 2.23% )
15 . Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 4,018,762 3,439,809 ( 16.83% )
16 . Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 3,690,261 3,346,859 ( 10.26% )
17 . San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA MSA 3,298,634 3,095,313 ( 6.57% )
18 . Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 3,175,275 2,783,243 ( 14.09% )
19 . Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA 2,963,821 2,543,482 ( 16.53% )
20 . Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA 2,844,510 2,710,489 ( 4.94% )
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
21 . St. Louis, MO-IL MSA 2,820,253 2,787,701 ( 1.17% )
22 . Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA 2,673,376 2,134,411 ( 25.25% )
23 . Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA 2,660,329 2,243,960 ( 18.56% )
24 . San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX MSA 2,558,143 2,142,508 ( 19.40% )
25 . Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA 2,512,859 2,226,009 ( 12.89% )
26 . Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA MSA 2,397,382 2,149,127 ( 11.55% )
27 . Pittsburgh, PA MSA 2,370,930 2,356,285 ( 0.62% )
28 . Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX MSA 2,283,371 1,716,289 ( 33.04% )
29 . Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV MSA 2,265,461 1,951,269 ( 16.10% )
30 . Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN MSA 2,256,884 2,137,667 ( 5.58% )
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
31 . Kansas City, MO-KS MSA 2,192,035 2,009,342 ( 9.09% )
32 . Columbus, OH MSA 2,138,926 1,901,974 ( 12.46% )
33 . Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN MSA 2,111,040 1,887,877 ( 11.82% )
34 . Cleveland-Elyria, OH MSA 2,088,251 2,077,240 ( 0.53% )
35 . San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA 2,000,468 1,836,911 ( 8.90% )
36 . Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN MSA 1,989,519 1,646,200 ( 20.86% )
37 . Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC MSA 1,799,674 1,713,954 ( 5.00% )
38 . Providence-Warwick, RI-MA MSA 1,676,579 1,600,852 ( 4.73% )
39 . Jacksonville, FL MSA 1,605,848 1,345,596 ( 19.34% )
40 . Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI MSA 1,574,731 1,555,908 ( 1.21% )
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
41 . Oklahoma City, OK MSA 1,425,695 1,252,987 ( 13.78% )
42 . Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA 1,413,982 1,130,490 ( 25.08% )
43 . Memphis, TN-MS-AR MSA 1,337,779 1,316,100 ( 1.65% )
44 . Richmond, VA MSA 1,314,434 1,186,501 ( 10.78% )
45 . Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN MSA 1,285,439 1,202,718 ( 6.88% )
46 . New Orleans-Metairie, LA MSA 1,271,845 1,189,866 ( 6.89% )
47 . Salt Lake City, UT MSA 1,257,936 1,087,873 ( 15.63% )
48 . Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT MSA 1,213,531 1,212,381 ( 0.09% )
49 . Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY MSA 1,166,902 1,135,509 ( 2.76% )
50 . Birmingham-Hoover, AL MSA 1,115,289 1,061,024 ( 5.11% )
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
51 . Rochester, NY MSA 1,090,135 1,079,671 ( 0.97% )
52 . Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI MSA 1,087,592 993,670 ( 9.45% )
53 . Tucson, AZ MSA 1,043,433 980,263 ( 6.44% )
54 . Urban Honolulu, HI MSA 1,016,508 953,207 ( 6.64% )
55 . Tulsa, OK MSA 1,015,331 937,478 ( 8.30% )
56 . Fresno, CA MSA 1,008,654 930,450 ( 8.40% )
|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
57 . Worcester, MA-CT MSA 978,529 916,980 ( 6.71% )
58 . Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA MSA 967,604 865,350 ( 11.82% )
59 . Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT MSA 957,419 916,829 ( 4.43% )
60 . Greenville-Anderson, SC MSA 928,195 824,112 ( 12.63% )
61 . Albuquerque, NM MSA 916,528 887,077 ( 3.32% )
62 . Bakersfield, CA MSA 909,235 839,631 ( 8.29% )
63 . Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY MSA 899,262 870,716 ( 3.28% )
64 . Knoxville, TN MSA 879,773 814,914 ( 7.96% )
65 . McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX MSA 870,781 774,769 ( 12.39% )
66 . Baton Rouge, LA MSA 870,569 825,905 ( 5.41% )
67 . El Paso, TX MSA 868,859 804,123 ( 8.05% )
68 . New Haven-Milford, CT MSA 864,835 862,477 ( 0.27% )
69 . Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ MSA 861,889 821,173 ( 4.96% )
70 . Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA MSA 843,843 823,318 ( 2.49% )
71 . North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL MSA 833,716 702,281 ( 18.72% )
72 . Columbia, SC MSA 829,470 767,598 ( 8.06% )
73 . Dayton-Kettering, OH MSA 814,049 799,232 ( 1.85% )
74 . Charleston-North Charleston, SC MSA 799,636 664,607 ( 20.32% )
75 . Stockton, CA MSA 779,233 685,306 ( 13.71% )
76 . Greensboro-High Point, NC MSA 776,566 723,801 ( 7.29% )
77 . Boise City, ID MSA 764,718 616,561 ( 24.03% )
78 . Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL MSA 760,822 618,754 ( 22.96% )
79 . Colorado Springs, CO MSA 755,105 645,613 ( 16.96% )
80 . Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR MSA 748,031 699,757 ( 6.90% )
81 . Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL MSA 725,046 602,095 ( 20.42% )
82 . Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA MSA 709,466 606,475 ( 16.98% )
83 . Akron, OH MSA 702,219 703,200 ( -0.14% )
84 . Springfield, MA MSA 699,162 692,942 ( 0.90% )
85 . Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY MSA 697,221 670,301 ( 4.02% )
86 . Ogden-Clearfield, UT MSA 694,863 597,159 ( 16.36% )
87 . Madison, WI MSA 680,796 605,435 ( 12.45% )
88 . Winston-Salem, NC MSA 675,966 640,595 ( 5.52% )
89 . Provo-Orem, UT MSA 671,185 526,810 ( 27.41% )
90 . Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL MSA 668,921 590,289 ( 13.32% )
91 . Syracuse, NY MSA 662,057 662,577 ( -0.08% )
92 . Durham-Chapel Hill, NC MSA 649,903 564,273 ( 15.18% )
93 . Wichita, KS MSA 647,610 623,061 ( 3.94% )
94 . Toledo, OH MSA 646,604 651,429 ( -0.74% )
95 . Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC MSA 611,000 564,873 ( 8.17% )
96 . Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL MSA 606,612 543,376 ( 11.64% )
97 . Jackson, MS MSA 591,978 586,320 ( 0.97% )
98 . Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA MSA 591,712 549,475 ( 7.69% )
99 . Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA MSA 585,784 514,752 ( 13.80% )
100 . Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, PA MSA 567,559 563,631 ( 0.70% )

[Yuri]

I guess we've examined 2020 numbers from all angles possible. What about 2030?

We can assume 6% of growth (optimistic) or 5% (neutral), with the country between 347-351 million.

And then we have some metropolitan areas that will reach another level, specially in Texas. I'll use CSA numbers as by the 2030 that will probably be the MSAs. While the South Atlantic slowed down, Texas keeps growing undisturbed.

If we assume 16% of growth for Dallas, Houston and San Antonio (they've grown 19%), we would have a 9.42 million people Dallas, getting very close to become a megacity, a 8.48 million Houston and a 2.99 million San Antonio. For Austin, let's go with 24% (33% this decade), to reach 2.83 million.

[dave8721]

Broward county will probably join the group on that map with Hispanic/Latino as the largest group by next census.
2020:
White - 34.8%
Hispanic - 31.1%
Black- 30.2%

2010:
White: 42.5%
Hispanic: 26.9%
Black: 26.7%

2000:
White: 58%
Black: 20.5%
Hispanic: 16.7%