The US Census Bureau thread

[ITB495]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I'm looking at Detroit, and wondering:

Will Detroit ever stop shrinking?

There were 3 decades since 1950 (the 1950s, 1960s, and 1990s) that it shrank slower than the most recent one, and in each case shrinkage accelerated in the decades after.

So Detroit is not showing a consistent, steady slowdown in its shrinkage.

Will it ever? Where the hell is the bottom for this place?

While it's possible Detroit will begin to tick up this decade, the opposite is more probable. Population growth usually doesn't turn on a dime. For decades Detroit has had population losses, as we commonly know. It lost a stunning 25% between 2000 and 2010. Between 2010 and 2020, the percentage loss was significantly pared to only 10.5%. Some would say that's a success. Considering the bankruptcy, it could have been much worse. The remarkable endeavors of Dan Gilbert and other like him helped stem the loss, but their efforts only reached so far.

Sadly, a shrinking population usually engenders more shrinkage, as schools are consolidated, fire stations closed, and less people are needed to staff government. Detroit's always been more working class city than not. Its working class jobs are now largely gone ... long gone! And, in all likelihood, they're never coming back. The people who had those jobs have either left the city for better opportunities elsewhere or are aging in place and eventually passing.

People need a reason to live in Detroit. Cheap housing might be a draw for some, but, so far, it hasn't nudged the needle all that much. Again, it comes down to jobs. If the jobs aren't there, if people see few opportunities to better their lives for themselves and their children, they won't be coming back.

At some point Detroit will bottom out. When exactly that will happen remains to be seen.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by ITB495

At some point Detroit will bottom out. When exactly that will happen remains to be seen.

FWIW, The planning agency SEMCOG (SouthEast Michigan Council Of Governments) is now forecasting that Detroit will bottom out around 2025 at ~631,000, after which they project that the city's population will finally start slowly rising again.

How accurate are SEMCOG's estimates/forecasts.

Well, they released a 2020 city of Detroit estimate last year of 642,508, which is pretty damn close (within 0.5%) to the official census 2020 count of 639,111, and much more on target than the Census Bureau's own estimates, so.........

[ITB495]

Originally Posted by Handro

I'm a tiny bit surprised by Baltimore's continued decline in light of DC's continued growth. Is it possible that sometime soon DC's growth+housing costs could start to benefit Baltimore? I'm not really familiar with the mid-Atlantic region.

Baltimore is just a little too far to be a bedroom community to the job centers of the Washington, DC area. While it's only 23 miles between the two beltways, a lot of drive time is chewed up getting in and out of each city. The commute's probably doable for the FDA campus in White Oak or the IRS facility in New Carrollton, but not so much for the employment centers of Silver Spring, Bethesda, the I-270 corridor, or DC itself. And anywhere in Virginia is a non-starter. So if one lands a job with Amazon in Crystal City, living in Baltimore is going to be a real challenge unless some sort of special work arrangement can be worked out, for instance telecommuting.

Also, Baltimore as a city is facing some tremendous challenges. To be sure, it's a lovely city with outstanding bones, but as a former working class city, it suffers from the same issues that plague other once powerhouse industrial cities, such as Pittsburgh and Cleveland. The number one issue is, of course, jobs. They just aren't there like they used to be. Case in point: Bethlehem Steel's complex at Sparrow's Point which once employed more than 30,000. After years of shrinkage, it closed up shop for good in 2012.

A lot of housing in Baltimore is working class, typically a two-story rowhouse. Thousands of these houses are vacant, in dilapidated condition. Ever hear the term "formstone." If not look it up. Baltimore is the king of formstone. Not everyone is fond of formstone. By and large, a good chunk of Baltimore's housing stock is just not what people want today.

Last year, I believe, I noticed a quote from a Baltimore resident in an article about crime in the city and other issues. It was simply, "Why stay?" It struck a chord with its preciseness. Obviously, many others have similar sentiments, as the city continues to lose population.

[ITB495]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

FWIW, The planning agency SEMCOG (SouthEast Michigan Council Of Governments) is now forecasting that Detroit will bottom out around 2025 at ~631,000, after which they project that the city's population will finally start slowly rising again.

How accurate are SEMCOG's estimates/forecasts.

Well, they released a 2020 city of Detroit estimate last year of 642,508, which is pretty damn close (within 0.5%) to the official census 2020 count of 639,111, and much more on target than the Census Bureau's own estimates, so.........

The 639,111 figure seems reasonable. To see Detroit rebound and show some population growth in the 2020s would be a nice turn of event. Ultimately, it may depend on how robust the American automobile industry is and whether the city can attract new corporate investment.

By the way, it was a pleasant surprise to see Chicago grow. The U.S. really needs a healthy, vibrant Chicago. It's such an important city to the fabric of our country.

[Crawford]

Re. Detroit, SEMCOG has been predicting a population turnaround "in five years" for many years now. I wouldn't put much stock in their (constantly updated) long-term predictions. I feel some of their work kinda crosses the line between regional planning agency and regional booster agency.

Also, I feel the national media has gone a bit overboard with the Detroit boosting, creating an expectation that there will be a population turnaround. Detroit still doesn't get many immigrants (and the main group, Mexicans, don't immigrate in same numbers as in the past), Detroit still has emptying neighborhoods, Detroit still looks worse than ever, except in the core neighborhoods and a few nice residential areas on the fringe.

There are lots of positive things happening, but the city overall has never felt emptier.

[the urban politician]

^ Well, maybe they are all moving to Schaumburg.

6% growth!

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by ITB495

The remarkable endeavors of Dan Gilbert and other like him helped stem the loss, but their efforts only reached so far.

Yeah, there's tons of good stuff happening in/around downtown Detroit, but this isn't really relevant to a discussion of Detroit population trends. The city isn't gonna grow because of some young, highly paid professionals living in core housing.

Detroit is a black city. The population trends are largely fueled by black migration trends. Detroit is surrounded by cheap, working class white ethnic suburbs with aging populations. As these grannies die out, the home is often sold to a young black household from Detroit. This is why southern Macomb county is shifting majority black, when the black population was basically 0, 20 years ago. There are tons of safe, decent suburbs, very close to Detroit, that are generally no longer desirable for white suburbanites, and that are rapidly transitioning to black (and in S/SW directionals, Arab or Mexican).

A good example is Eastpointe. This town was all white a few years ago. I remember playing them in high school sports, and all the kids had Polish or Italian last names. Now Eastpointe is majority black.

[PHL10]

Originally Posted by ITB495

A lot of housing in Baltimore is working class, typically a two-story rowhouse. Thousands of these houses are vacant, in dilapidated condition. Ever hear the term "foamstone." If not look it up. Baltimore is the king of foamstone. Not everyone is fond of foamstone. By and large, a good chunk of Baltimore's housing stock is just not what people want today.

I think you mean “formstone”. 25 years ago, I had doubted that those 2-story rowhome neighborhoods in Phila. would ever come back to due their size and layout but I was wrong. Hopefully Baltimore can pull off the same trick.


Mentioning Detroit, I think that wood-framed housing stock covering so much of the City is the problem – not particularly urban and not conducive for easy renovation/restoration. It almost seems that they need to completely rebuild out from the core. I like that new development by the new arena as a model for the future.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Re. Detroit, SEMCOG has been predicting a population turnaround "in five years" for many years now. I wouldn't put much stock in their (constantly updated) long-term predictions.

Well, I prefaced my comment about SEMCOG with a "FWIW".

I don't know much about their pattern of predicting a population turnaround "in five years", but I was quite impressed with how damn close their own 2020 estimate came to the actual 2020 count, which is why I brought it up.

They seem to have a fairly decent grasp on what's actually happening in Detroit.

Originally Posted by PHL10

Mentioning Detroit, I think that wood-framed housing stock covering so much of the City is the problem – not particularly urban and not conducive for easy renovation/restoration.

I don't think you can blame it on the wood-frame itself.

SF is almost exclusively wood-frame residential vernacular and that city seems to do just fine with it.

[Crawford]

Detroit isn't really overwhelmingly wood frame, like a Cleveland. Most of the West Side is brick, and most has been hit hard.

Granted, the brick areas have fared better than the wood frame areas, but the brick areas have always been somewhat more desirable.

[ITB495]

Originally Posted by PHL10

I think you mean “formstone”. 25 years ago, I had doubted that those 2-story rowhome neighborhoods in Phila. would ever come back to due their size and layout but I was wrong. Hopefully Baltimore can pull off the same trick.

Yup. I work up this morning and realized I screwed up. Indeed it's "formstone" not "foamstone," the word I used repeatedly in the previous post, and have now corrected. Wikipedia has a nice summary of formstone.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by ITB495

it was a pleasant surprise to see Chicago grow.

It was more like outright shock for me.

Here's my off the cuff reaction from 20 pages ago in this thread when I first read the news:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

HOLY MOTHERFUCKING SHIT!!!!!!!!

CHICAGO ACTUALLY GREW?!?!?!?!?


how?

[benp]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

I found the list I made with the 2015 estimates. The top 6 went Highland Park, Johnstown, PA, East St. Louis, McKeesport, PA, Detroit, St. Louis.

Two pages later in that thread were constant area MSA calculations. For over 500k: Scranton, Youngstown, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland. However. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre is growing again, so Youngstown might have fallen below it.

Here is your 2015 list and 2020 updates with 2020 population gains in GREEN and cities with 2020 population losses in RED:

Updating to 2015 estimates:
City..........Peak..........2015........Percentage Drop

Highland Park, MI.............52,959..........10,949.......79.3%
Johnstown, PA................19,966...........67,327......70.3%
East St. Louis, IL.............82,366...........26,790......67.5%
McKeesport, PA...............55,355...........19,453......64.9%
Detroit, MI.....................1,849,568.......677,116.....63.4%
St. Louis, MO..................856,796.........315,685.....63.2%
Youngstown, OH..............170,002.........64,628.......62.0%
Hamtramck, MI................56,268...........22,002.......60.9%
Cleveland, OH.................914,808.........388,072......57.6%
Gary, IN.........................178,320.........77,156.......56.7%
Buffalo, NY.....................580,132.........258,071......55.5%
Wheeling, WV..................61,659...........27,648......55.2%
Pittsburgh, PA.................676,806.........304,391.....55.0%
Wilkes-Barre, PA..............86,626..........40,780.......52.9%
Niagara Falls, NY..............102,394.........48,916.......52.2%
East Chicago, IN..............57,669...........28,699......50.2%
Flint, MI.........................196,940.........98,310.......50.1%
Saginaw, MI....................98,265..........49,347.......49.8%

City................................Peak..........2020......Percentage Drop

Highland Park, MI.............52,959..........8,977.......83.0%
East St. Louis, IL.............82,366...........18,469......77.6%
Johnstown, PA................67, 327..........18,411......72.7%
McKeesport, PA...............55,355...........17,727......68.0%
Detroit, MI.....................1,849,568.......639,111.....65.4%
St. Louis, MO..................856,796.........301,578.....64.8%
Youngstown, OH..............170,002.........60,068.......64.7%
Gary, IN.........................178,320.........69,093.......61.3%
Cleveland, OH.................914,808.........372,624......59.3%
Flint, MI.........................196,940.........81,252.......58.7%
Wheeling, WV..................61,659...........27,052......56.1%
Pittsburgh, PA.................676,806.........302,971.....55.2%
Saginaw, MI....................98,265..........44,202.......55.0%
East Chicago, IN..............57,669...........26,370......54.3%
Niagara Falls, NY..............102,394.........48,671.......52.5%
Buffalo, NY.....................580,132.........278,349......52.0%
Hamtramck, MI................56,268...........28,433.......49.5%
Wilkes-Barre, PA..............86,626..........44,328.......48.8%

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by benp

Here is your 2015 list and 2020 updates with 2020 population gains in GREEN and cities with 2020 population losses in RED:


City................................Peak..........2020......Percentage Drop

Highland Park, MI.............52,959..........8,977.......83.0%
East St. Louis, IL.............82,366...........18,469......77.6%
Johnstown, PA................67, 327..........18,411......72.7%
McKeesport, PA...............55,355...........17,727......68.0%
Detroit, MI.....................1,849,568.......639,111.....65.4%
St. Louis, MO..................856,796.........301,578.....64.8%
Youngstown, OH..............170,002.........60,068.......64.7%
Gary, IN.........................178,320.........69,093.......61.3%
Cleveland, OH.................914,808.........372,624......59.3%
Flint, MI.........................196,940.........81,252.......58.7%
Wheeling, WV..................61,659...........27,052......56.1%
Pittsburgh, PA.................676,806.........302,971.....55.2%
Saginaw, MI....................98,265..........44,202.......55.0%
East Chicago, IN..............57,669...........26,370......54.3%
Niagara Falls, NY..............102,394.........48,671.......52.5%
Buffalo, NY.....................580,132.........278,349......52.0%
Hamtramck, MI................56,268...........28,433.......49.5%
Wilkes-Barre, PA..............86,626..........44,328.......48.8%

It's crazy to me that Detroit has declined in population more than Flint.

Also, this should underscore the point about Michigan's terrible land management, since the state is home to over 1/4 of the cities on this list.

[Crawford]

Flint has some suburban-y tracts, so I could see it.

Also, Flint is dirt-poor, so probably less flight, bc people can't move anywhere. This is also why Flint is much whiter. The white areas are as poor as the black areas. Less postwar white flight.

[Crawford]

To me, Saginaw is the most epically screwed MI city. The downtown is just gone. There's nothing to revitalize, really.

[ITB495]

Speaking of the older housing stock of a city or a town, I tend to believe it plays a factor in some census tabulations, and not in a positive way. I used to be puzzled why, in some cases, a pleasant, small town was losing population while the county surrounding it was growing. Delving into Google Maps and Streetview it became apparent that, again and again, new, larger houses were generally being built on the periphery, while closer to the core the housing stock was more modest and, importantly, located on much smaller lots.

To be sure, this is nothing new. It's the story of suburbia in the U.S. Given a choice, it's natural for people to select the newer and larger. People desire that big lot and the big house plopped down on it. Moreover, in many cases, it's cheaper to build new, particularly when land is plentiful, than to renovate and rehab the old. And what is it about the lawn? It's mind boggling the untold billions spent on lawn care in the U.S.

[sopas ej]

From California News Times:

Multiracial boom reflects US racial, ethnic complexity

"Yes, the country is diversifying. But also, there is much less stigma associated with being multi-ethnic and there is more conversation about it. As a result, those who marked themselves strictly white in 2010 may have chosen more than one race this time, partly due to social changes..."

Link: https://californianewstimes.com/multirac...es-sentinel-los-angeles-sentinel/485822/

[Crawford]

Some of this "multiracial boom" is just cultural/social evolution rather than demographic change. I'm in a "nonwhite" household even though I'm a dirty blond of full German descent, bc my wife is Mexican and our son is Hispanic per Census.

None of us look particularly "nonwhite". Most people guess my wife is from Italy, Spain or Southern France. If she's been in the sun we might get Greece or Lebanon. My son just looks like a typical white 4 yo. He's brown-eyed/haired due to his mom, but barely even tans.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Some of this "multiracial boom" is just cultural/social evolution rather than demographic change. I'm in a "nonwhite" household even though I'm a dirty blond of full German descent, bc my wife is Mexican and our son is Hispanic per Census.

None of us look particularly "nonwhite". Most people guess my wife is from Italy, Spain or Southern France. If she's been in the sun we might get Greece or Lebanon. My son just looks like a typical white 4 yo. He's brown-eyed/haired due to his mom, but barely even tans.

Is your wife bothered that many people don't get it right, or does she like that she "passes" for "white" in the US? If I were to look at her and her body language and listen to her Spanish, would she be bothered if I told her that I got right away that she's Mexican? She's a Chilanga, right?