The US Census Bureau thread

[chris08876]

Just an idea: Lots in store for Jersey City.

Population bound to rise!

City pound for pound is exceling compared to similar sized cities. The whole county is.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Removing the Green Belt area, London's density would be roughly 19,000 ppsm, which is similar to San Francisco. New York's density is 29,000 ppsm, which includes low density Staten Island. NYC without Staten Island, which is only 6% of the city's population, has a density of 34k ppsm. Nearly twice London.

Using weighted density removes this “what to include” and “what to exclude” problem altogether.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Removing the Green Belt area, London's density would be roughly 19,000 ppsm, which is similar to San Francisco. New York's density is 29,000 ppsm, which includes low density Staten Island. NYC without Staten Island, which is only 6% of the city's population, has a density of 34k ppsm. Nearly twice London.

Daytime population is massive as well, one of the highest in the world.

This is a fun little map: http://manpopex.us/

I'm curious what the latest data would be though as its based on this study back in March 2012: https://wagner.nyu.edu/files/rudincenter/dynamic_pop_manhattan.pdf

[dave8721]

I wish the Census Demographic Data viewer had density categories above 10k or let you set your own density breaks.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by dave8721

I wish the Census Demographic Data viewer had density categories above 10k or let you set your own density breaks.

Also, if they let you download a CSV of the data. It would be trivial to calculate weighted population density off a CSV of the tracts.

[the urban politician]

I'm looking at Detroit, and wondering:

Will Detroit ever stop shrinking?

There were 3 decades since 1950 (the 1950s, 1960s, and 1990s) that it shrank slower than the most recent one, and in each case shrinkage accelerated in the decades after.

So Detroit is not showing a consistent, steady slowdown in its shrinkage.

Will it ever? Where the hell is the bottom for this place?

[Camelback]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I'm looking at Detroit, and wondering:

Will Detroit ever stop shrinking?

There were 3 decades since 1950 (the 1950s, 1960s, and 1990s) that it shrank slower than the most recent one, and in each case shrinkage accelerated in the decades after.

So Detroit is not showing a consistent, steady slowdown in its shrinkage.

Will it ever? Where the hell is the bottom for this place?

7 straight decades of population loss. wow.

[the urban politician]

^ Same for St Louis. No other American city over 100,000 has lost more % of its population over the past 70 years than St Louis

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ Same for St Louis. No other American city over 100,000 has lost more % of its population over the past 70 years than St Louis

Detroit now has that title.


Detroit:
1950 - 1,849,568
2020 - 639,111
Change: -65.4%

St. Louis
1950 - 856,796
2020 - 301,578
Change: -64.8%

[Camelback]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Detroit now has that title.


Detroit:
1950 - 1,849,568
2020 - 639,111
Change: -65.4%

St. Louis
1950 - 856,796
2020 - 301,578
Change: -64.8%

Pitt, Cleve and Cincy are probably in that ballpark too.

[Steely Dan]

^^ those two are awfully neck and neck.

Who's number 3 by %? Cleveland?

[38 Geary]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Detroit now has that title.


Detroit:
1950 - 1,849,568
2020 - 639,111
Change: -65.4%

St. Louis
1950 - 856,796
2020 - 301,578
Change: -64.8%

How about the MSA figures?

[Buckeye Native 001]

Originally Posted by Camelback

Pitt, Cleve and Cincy are probably in that ballpark too.

Cleveland definitely. Cincinnati? At it's peak (1950), population was around 500,000. By 2010 it was 296,000. A pretty significant loss, but it was never really as populous as Cleveland, St. Louis or Detroit to begin with.

According to the 2020 census, its now up at around 309,000.

I don't know why I'm surprised, but here we are. The city's been on a nice rebound the past decade (spurred in part by gentrification of OTR, for better or for worse) and most estimates had its population back above 300,000 but I'm not sure anyone anticipated that much of a population jump? Of course, that's just city numbers, not metro.

The one I'm still trying to figure out is Metro Phoenix. With all the people moving there, how has it not yet surpassed 5 million? I'm awful with numbers and projections.

[ChiSoxRox]

#3 does appear to be Cleveland. This should be all of the currently over 100k cities that are less than two-thirds of their historic peaks.

Cleveland
1950: 914,808
2010: 372,624
-59.3%

Pittsburgh
1950: 676,806
2020: 302,971
-55.2%

Buffalo (first gain since 1950!)
1950: 580,132
2020: 278,349
-52.0%

Dayton
1960: 262,332
2020: 137,644
-47.5%

Birmingham
1960: 340,887
2020: 200,733
-41.1%

New Orleans (growing strongly)
1960: 627,525
2020: 383,997
-38.8%

Cincinnati has fared somewhat better, especially with its 2020 growth:
1950: 503,998
2020: 309,317
-38.6%

Baltimore is still dropping in contrast:
1950: 949,708
2020: 585,708
-38.3%

Rochester, NY (also first growth since 1950):
1960: 332,488
2020: 211,328
-36.4%

Newark's 12.4% gain in the 2010s means it is only 29% off of its 1950 peak.

On the other hand, Flint crashed well below the 100k mark. In the next few days I'll compile a similar list for any cities ever over 50k.

[Camelback]

^excellent response, thanks!

[Camelback]

Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001

Cleveland definitely. Cincinnati? At it's peak (1950), population was around 500,000. By 2010 it was 296,000. A pretty significant loss, but it was never really as populous as Cleveland, St. Louis or Detroit to begin with.

According to the 2020 census, its now up at around 309,000.

I don't know why I'm surprised, but here we are. The city's been on a nice rebound the past decade (spurred in part by gentrification of OTR, for better or for worse) and most estimates had its population back above 300,000 but I'm not sure anyone anticipated that much of a population jump? Of course, that's just city numbers, not metro.

The one I'm still trying to figure out is Metro Phoenix. With all the people moving there, how has it not yet surpassed 5 million? I'm awful with numbers and projections.

Ah Ok, so it seems Cincy bottomed out and is on the rebound now, or at least we hope so.

Also, yeah, I'm confused how (metro) Phoenix seemed to come in lower than what was expected given what's going on, on the ground all over the Valley.

[Buckeye Native 001]

I think metro-wise, Cincinnati finally overtook Cleveland, with Columbus not too far behind. Problem is, a good chunk of that is in another state (okay, Commonwealth if the Kentuckians want to get technical...), but Warren County is, or was, at one point the fastest-growing county in Ohio and includes parts of both metro Cincinnati and metro Dayton.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by homebucket

How about the MSA figures?

A trickier question to answer, with shifting MSA boundaries. My instinct for 1M+ metros is either Buffalo or Pittsburgh. I'll see if I can pin down more solid numbers.

Edit: Nice work by Yuri. Using his numbers:

Pittsburgh: -14.4%
Buffalo: -13.5%
Cleveland: -8.0%
Detroit: -0.6%

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by homebucket

How about the MSA figures?

Buffalo
1960: 1.306.957
1970: 1.349.211 +3,23%
1980: 1.242.826 -7,88%
1990: 1.189.288 -4,31%
2000: 1.170.111 -1,61%
2010: 1.135.509 -2,96%
2020: 1.166.902 +2,76%

Pittsburgh
1960: 2.768.938
1970: 2.759.443 -0,34%
1980: 2.648.991 -4,00%
1990: 2.468.289 -6,82%
2000: 2.431.088 -1,51%
2010: 2.356.285 -3,08%
2020: 2.370.930 +0,62%

Cleveland
1960: 2.732.350
1970: 3.000.276 +9,81%
1980: 2.834.062 -5,54%
1990: 2.759.823 -2,62%
2000: 2.843.103 +3,02%
2010: 2.780.440 -2,20%
2020: 2.790.470 +0,36%

Detroit
1960: 4.597.593
1970: 5.228.313 +13,72%
1980: 5.203.221 -0,48%
1990: 5.095.695 -2,07%
2000: 5.357.538 +5,14%
2010: 5.218.852 -2,59%
2020: 5.325.319 +2,04%

St. Louis
1960: 2.184.761
1970: 2.456.395 +12,43%
1980: 2.414.811 -1,69%
1990: 2.492.525 +3,22%
2000: 2.648.607 +6,26%
2010: 2.717.079 +2,59%
2020: 2.754.124 +1,36%

Fix boundaries. The worst cases are Pittsburgh and Buffalo and they interrupted their decades decline now. Detroit and Cleveland with ups and downs and St. Louis only one negative.

[Handro]

I'm a tiny bit surprised by Baltimore's continued decline in light of DC's continued growth. Is it possible that sometime soon DC's growth+housing costs could start to benefit Baltimore? I'm not really familiar with the mid-Atlantic region.