CHICAGO | General Discussions

[SamInTheLoop]

^ Chicago did not lose population in the last decade!

Low bar.....but at least got over it.

[Randomguy34]

Census 2020 population: 2,746,388

White: 863622 (31%)
Latino: 819518 (30%)
Black: 787551 (29%)
Asian: 189857 (7%)
Native: 3332
Pacific Islander: 529
Other: 11536
Two or More Races: 70443

https://twitter.com/FrankCalabrese/s...69771594158083

[sentinel]

Well shit, that's really good news.

[marothisu]

Some new 2020 Census numbers are out. Chicago grew by about 50,000 people from 2010 to 2020. It didn't lose people. Can people now finally realize that ACS has different methodology than the actual Census and you should take it with a grain of salt?

[dewbs]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Some new 2020 Census numbers are out. Chicago grew by about 50,000 people from 2010 to 2020. It didn't lose people. Can people now finally realize that ACS has different methodology than the actual Census and you should take it with a grain of salt?

Genuine question: why is the census preferred to the ACS?

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by dewbs

Genuine question: why is the census preferred to the ACS?

I believe the ACS uses the previous census to make some calculations. So the ACS compounds any errors that were in the census.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by dewbs

Genuine question: why is the census preferred to the ACS?

Because it's an actual count of people whereas the ACS is a sample estimate based a small percentage of the population who gets something in the mail. The study then tries to extrapolate information.. that's why ACS comes with Margin of Error for everything. Dicennial Census is always more accurate than a sample survey such as ACS.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

I believe the ACS uses the previous census to make some calculations. So the ACS compounds any errors that were in the census.

The ACS does not actually adjust for what the actual Census has. I asked this question a handful of years ago to some at the Census and they confirmed it. If the Census shows that a tract was undercounted by 500 people, the ACS doesn't actually adjust to the new information. The next survey is tied to the previous one.
They're complete different studies with different methodologies so they don't mix. That would be bad science.

Census is an actual count whereas ACS is a sample survey from a small percentage of the actual population.

The issue is that you are supposed to only compare ACS to ACS. you aren't supposed to compare ACS to Dicennial Census. All the media does this and they aren't supposed to. The Census will tell you this, but they aren't assertive enough to give everyone shit for erroneously doing it.

[sentinel]

Hmmmm, I couldn't find metropolitan area data; does it show anywhere what the Chicago MSA is, or however it's defined by the Census?

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by sentinel

Hmmmm, I couldn't find metropolitan area data; does it show anywhere what the Chicago MSA is, or however it's defined by the Census?

For the MSA:

Total population (2020): 9,618,502
Total population (2010): 9,461,105
Numeric change (2010–2020): 157,397
Percent change (2010–2020): 1.7

Census source

[marothisu]

I hope this wakes some people up to the fact that 99% of the media here has been misusing Census-based data for years. We can look at both Chicago and NYC as examples. Recent estimates have both losing population. While Chicago's underestimation is moderate, New York's is downright a lot.

"Everyone is leaving NYC! Everyone is leaving Chicago" - NYC's population was under estimated by something like 500,000 people. That's just crazy.

One of the most hilarious things I see is people who always wondered why such and such developer kept building things in Chicago, NYC, etc citing Census estimates. Gee, I don't know. Maybe these companies putting millions on the line in investments here who have actual local people on the ground might have a better sense of the current conditions in these areas better than a survey who sends 1% or 5% of the population a survey in the mail and extrapolates data?

[sentinel]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

For the MSA:



Census source

Thanks for finding that - good to see the metro area is growing a little too.

[Steely Dan]

I'm cross-posting this here from the main census 2020 thread in city discussions:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

so for the past handful of years, the local media in IL (based on mostly bogus census estimates) have droned on and on and on about "The Great Illinois Exodus".

and while it is true that the state was one of only 3 that posted negative growth for the past decade, the great exodus is really just a downstate thing.



Illinois 2010: 12,830,632

Illinois 2020: 12,812,508

growth: -18,124 (−0.1%)




9 Chicago MSA counties in IL 2010: 8,586,609

9 Chicago MSA counties in IL 2020: 8,730,688

growth: +144,079 (+1.7%)




the rest of IL 2010: 4,244,023

the rest of IL 2020: 4,081,820

growth: -162,203 (−3.8%)



chicagoland's modest growth is the only thing keeping IL barely treading water.






another popular narrative in the local media pertaining to the "The Great Illinois Exodus" is that everyone and their brother in Chicagoland is jumping the border over to NW Indiana because taxes.

but in reality, the 5 counties of NW Indiana (Lake, Porter, LaPorte, Newton & Japser Counties) only gained a combined total of ~11,800 people over the past decade, hardly some earth-shattering, dynamic-changing, mass migration within a CSA of nearly 10M people.

[marothisu]

Just to show you the differences between the last estimates for 2020 and the actual Census counts, here you go. Only a few places out of these were actually estimated fairly well:

Cities With Underestimated Populations:
- NYC: by 550,977 people (6.46%)
- Chicago: by 68,745 people (2.53%)
- Philadelphia: by 25,310 people (1.59%)
- San Francisco: by 7359 people (0.85%)
- Columbus, OH: by 1896 people (0.21%)

Cities with Overestimated populations
- San Antonio: by 132,493 people (8.83%)
- Phoenix: by 99,988 people (6.03%)
- Los Angeles: by 71,472 people (1.82%)
- Dallas: by 38,887 people (2.94%)
- San Diego: by 35,488 people (2.53%)
- Austin, TX: by 33,629 people (3.44%)
- Detroit: by 26,258 people (4.03%)
- Boston: by 15,884 people (2.32%)
- Milwaukeee: by 11,845 people (2.03%)
- Houston: by 11,540 people (0.50%)
- Cleveland: by 5965 people (1.59%)
- Baltimore: by 423 people (0.07%)
- San Jose: by 376 people (0.04%)

[Steely Dan]

^ seeing NYC, Chicago, and Philly top that first list, one could almost get the impression that the census bureau's estimating algorithms have a built-in bias against big old dense urban cities.

holy shit did the CB ever swing and miss on NYC. it's like they showed up to a baseball game, but thought they were playing soccer or some shit. not. even. close.

[Randomguy34]

Right now I'm counting community area population from the census tracts map. Something interesting is how much Near North Side was underestimate in ACS. Near North Side is now the densest community area in Chicago: https://mtgis-portal.geo.census.gov/...ed2b2fd7ff6eb7

Census 2020 population: 105,481 people - density: 38780 pp/sqmi
ACS 2019 population: 93,318 people - density: 34308 pp/sqmi

Mid-South Side neighborhoods also generally have slightly higher population than estimate from the ACS, some are closer to their 2000 populations

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ seeing NYC, Chicago, and Philly top that first list, one could almost get the impression that the census bureau's estimating algorithms have a built-in bias against big old dense urban cities.

holy shit did the CB ever swing and miss on NYC. it's like they showed up to a baseball game, but thought they were playing soccer or some shit. not. even. close.

It's pretty incredible how far they were off by some. They basically overestimated for the most part the amount of people who moved to some of the Texas cities, especially San Antonio, and completely missed on NYC and missed by a decent amount on Chicago. The entire narrative of how people are leaving cities like NYC, Chicago, SF, and Philadelphia due to the pandemic is basically bullshit. Now, there's some nuance and although the Census started in April 2020 it also went through October basically. I would be shocked if most people filled these things in right away especially if they were planning to move.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

Right now I'm counting community area population from the census tracts map. Something interesting is how much Near North Side was underestimate in ACS. Near North Side is now the densest community area in Chicago: https://mtgis-portal.geo.census.gov/...ed2b2fd7ff6eb7

Census 2020 population: 105,481 people - density: 38780 pp/sqmi
ACS 2019 population: 93,318 people - density: 34308 pp/sqmi

Mid-South Side neighborhoods also generally have slightly higher population than estimate from the ACS, some are closer to their 2000 populations

Hah we've been doing the same thing. Here's populations I have so far with their changes from the 2010 Census..


- Near North Side: 105,481 people (+24,997 people or +31.06%)
- The Loop: 42,298 people (+13,015 people or +44.45%)
- Near West Side: 67,881 people (+13,000 people or +23.69%)
- Lake View: 103,050 people (+8682 people or +9.2%)
- Near South Side: 28,795 people (+7405 people or +34.62%)
- Lincoln Park: 70,492 people (+6376 people or +9.94%)
- West Ridge: 77,122 people (+5180 people or +7.2%)
- Hyde Park: 29,456 people (+3775 people or +14.7%)
- North Center: 35,114 people (+3247 people or +5.71%)
- Grand Boulevard: 24,589 people (+2660 people or +12.13%)
- Douglas: 20,291 people (+2053 people or +11.26%)
- Bridgeport: 33,747 people (+1822 people or +5.71%)
- Clearing: 24,468 people (+1329 people or +5.74%)
- Kenwood: 19,116 people (+1275 people or +7.15%)
- Dunning: 43,147 people (+1215 people or +2.9%)
- Forest Glen: 19,596 people (+1088 people or +5.88%)
- Lincoln Square: 40,494 people (+1001 people or +2.53%)
- Washington Park: 12,707 people (+990 people or +8.45%)
- Montclare: 14,401 people (+975 people or +7.26%)
- Garfield Ridge: 35,444 people (+931 people or +2.7%)
- Oakland: 6799 people (+881 people or +14.89%)
- Uptown: 57,182 people (+820 people or +1.45%)
- Archer Heights: 14,196 people (+803 people or +6%)
- Riverdale: 7262 people (+780 people or +12.03%)
- Jefferson Park: 26,216 people (+768 people or +3.02%)
- Rogers Park: 55,628 people (+637 people or +1.16%)
- Chatham: 31,626 people (+598 people or +1.93%)
- Hegewisch: 9988 people (+562 people or +5.96%)
- McKinley Park: 15,923 people (+311 people or +1.99%)
- West Lawn: 33,662 people (+307 people or +0.92%)
- West Elsdon: 18,394 people (+285 people or +1.57%)
- Armour Square: 13,845 people (+247 people or +1.82%)


- Edgewater: 56,296 people (-225 people or -0.40%)
- Brighton Park: 45,043 people (-315 people or -0.69%)
- Gage Park: 39,540 people (-354 people or -0.89%)
- North Park: 17,559 people (-372 people or -2.07%)
- Burnside: 2527 people (-388 people or -13.31%)
- Fuller Park: 2482 people (-394 people or -13.7%)
- Pullman: 6820 people (-505 people or -6.89%)
- East Garfield Park: 19,992 people (-575 people or -2.8%)
- Belmont Cragin: 78,116 people (-627 people or -0.8%)
- New City: 43,713 people (-664 people or -1.5%)
- Avalon Park: 9492 people (-693 people or -6.8%)
- Near South Side: 20,547 people (-843 people or -3.94%)
- South Deering: 14,105 people (-1004 people or -6.65%)
- Portage Park: 63,020 people (-1104 people or -1.72%)
- Irving Park: 51,940 people (-1419 people or -2.66%)
- Greater Grand Crossing: 31,471 people (-1131 people or -3.47%)
- Lower West Side: 33,751 people (-2018 people or -5.64%)
- Avondale: 36,257 people (-3005 people or -7.65%)
- Albany Park: 48,396 people (-3146 people or -6.1%)
- West Englewood: 29,647 people (-5858 people or -16.5%)
- Englewood: 24,369 people (-6285 people or -20.5%)

[Randomguy34]

^ I found a population increase for the Near South Side: 28,795 people

The lack of font borders has been giving me a headache. I've had to triple check some calculations I made.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

^ I found a population increase for the Near South Side: 28,795 people

The lack of font borders has been giving me a headache. I've had to triple check some calculations I made.

Tract 3301.01 (split from 3301): 4592 people
Tract 3301.02 (split from 3301): 10,811
Tract 3302: 4008
Tract 8410: 1136
------
20,547 people


What am I missing?