TCH east of Nipigon (La route transcanadienne à l'est de Nipigon)

[sonysnob]

Originally Posted by vid

I've driven Highway 7 between Guelph and Kitchener during rush hour so I understand their position on which highway should be twinned, but in their case, there is an alternate route.

We don't have that.

Even if it's twinned one lane roads, we need some kind of duplication to prevent totally cutting off parts of this region.

The Maryhill Road, (the first major road to the north) is quite a ways out of the way for most K/W to Guelph traffic. Plus, since the Maryhill Road doesn't cross the Grand River, a motorist still has to get to Fountain Street, which either via Victoria, Northfield or 85 isn't always the most pleasant itself. County Road 124 sucks too. Back before Highway 24 was downloaded, there were active plans to build a new four lane highway on a mostly new alignment between Guelph and Cambridge, but of course that's dead now too.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

This is proof to my of why I hate twinning. If thy instead build a new divided 4 lane highway and cris cross the old highway then you have a detour route when something inevitably happens.

Twinning is the cheaper option, so they do it.

Or twinning while bridging the fragmented side roads

Ps: I had a hard time trying to figure out what you were saying.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by sonysnob

The Maryhill Road, (the first major road to the north) is quite a ways out of the way for most K/W to Guelph traffic. Plus, since the Maryhill Road doesn't cross the Grand River, a motorist still has to get to Fountain Street, which either via Victoria, Northfield or 85 isn't always the most pleasant itself. County Road 124 sucks too. Back before Highway 24 was downloaded, there were active plans to build a new four lane highway on a mostly new alignment between Guelph and Cambridge, but of course that's dead now too.

Yea Old 24 should be widened too but that’s a different story.

Ps: No wonder Hespeler Road between 401 and Maple Grove Road felt like a freeway.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

I probably asked a question that wasn’t meant to be taken seriously, so better question:

The parts where TCH’s the only way between western and eastern Canada get closed every now and then, as can be seen from local news and from OPP Communications NWR’s tweets, but why is the failure of Nipigon Bridge the only one that garnered attention? When will the days come when media question why eastern and western Canada aren’t well connected, as Loco101 said?

A traffic accident/weather isn't usually much of a story - there's no "angle" to it; it's fairly mundane news. The press releases tend to be pretty dry, unless there is something notable about it - ex. A beer truck accident spills thousands of bottles of beer or something like that and the locals enjoy free beer.

The Nipigon bridge thing had angle to it - major visible failure on a new bridge. You can make hay about multiple things there and have pretty pictures for your story.

The second bit is that nationally, the traffic between Western and Eastern Canada doesn't really make a blip on the radar with respect to either the economy or most Canadians. The locals are the ones most upset because they're the ones most affected.

Shutting down the 401 in Toronto would be headline news because that highway carries hundreds of thousands of vehicles and indirectly affects millions of people. Shutting down highway 17 or 11 in Northern Ontario affects the local region and the truckers who are on that highway. Once other truckers know about the closure, they can detour (remember, goods can travel through the US to get between eastern and western Canada) or just wait it out. For the handful of people who are travelling long distances it sucks, but that's a handful of people.

I would venture that more people travel by air between the east and points west than drive on any given day.

An example - on Wednesday, Sept 11: From Thunder Bay to Toronto there are:

6 Porter flights/day on Q400s = 6 X 74 seats = 444 seats
2 Air Canada Rouge flights on A321s = 2X 200 seats = 400 seats
1 Air Canada flight on an E190 = 97 seats
3 Westjet Encore flights = 3 X 78 seats = 234 seats.

So, that's 1175 seats. On one day. Even if that's half full, that's probably the bulk of the people who are travelling between those destinations. I imagine the numbers get more skewed towards flying as the distance traveled increases. Greyhound couldn't make bus service work.

The lowest AADT portions of highways 11 and 17 probably have a combined traffic volume of ~3500 vehicles per day (I'm using the most remote sections of the highways, because that tends to be more long-distance travelers and not local commuters). Basically, that's the whole bulk of people who are travelling from the eastern portion of the country to the western part (excluding those who travel through the US).

Compared to the tens of thousands who fly each day, it's peanuts. Again - there are 22+ flights of jets from Calgary to Toronto each day - jets that hold between 150-300+ passengers. That's one city pair.

[vid]

September 11 is a quiet day for air travel (for reasons you might be aware of), on peak days Porter has 8 flights. After a storm that causes cancellations, they can have 10-15 flights as they play catch up. The Air Canada and WestJet flights are primarily for people travelling beyond Toronto, while Porter is mainly people going to Toronto or Ottawa.

Of those 3,500 vehicles, about 2,000 are transports. And while there are around 1,000 daily seats between here and Toronto, there is another 1,000 seats on all the smaller planes flying north throughout the day. Thunder Bay Airport has an average of 273 craft movements per day. That's 12 an hour, or one plane every 5 minutes. During the peak of the day, a plane goes overhead every 30 seconds or so. I live right below the flight path so I get to see and hear most of it. The majority of people coming and going from Thunder Bay are doing so by air. It's all but certain. The airport passed 800,000 passengers last year, I think they're closing in on 900,000 this year, that's around 2,100 people per day in and out.

Based on my truck's mileage, fuel prices and my current wage, a round-trip flight to Toronto is about 50-70% cheaper than driving, and flying to Winnipeg is 30-60% cheaper than driving. It's also much safer, less time consuming, and more relaxing. Sure, it contributes more to global warming, but we're feeling the bulk of that so we might as well contribute our fair share.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by vid

Of those 3,500 vehicles, about 2,000 are transports. And while there are around 1,000 daily seats between here and Toronto, there is another 1,000 seats on all the smaller planes flying north throughout the day. Thunder Bay Airport has an average of 273 craft movements per day. That's 12 an hour, or one plane every 5 minutes. During the peak of the day, a plane goes overhead every 30 seconds or so. I live right below the flight path so I get to see and hear most of it. The majority of people coming and going from Thunder Bay are doing so by air. It's all but certain.

Based on my truck's mileage, fuel prices and my current wage, a round-trip flight to Toronto is about 50-70% cheaper than driving, and flying to Winnipeg is 30-60% cheaper than driving. It's also much safer, less time consuming, and more relaxing. Sure, it contributes more to global warming, but we're feeling the bulk of that so we might as well contribute our fair share.

I think driving a ~3500 lb vehicle 1400km with one person in it emits more CO2 per capita than a jet with 200 people going ~1000ish km by air (the straight line distance is shorter).

So, you're saving the planet by flying (unless you're packing the truck with people, which changes the equation).

Anyway, thanks for the TBay airport stats! As a fellow numbers person, I appreciate it.

Edit: I picked Sept. 11 by fluke. Whoops. That was not intentional.

[vid]

Originally Posted by wave46

I think driving a ~3500 lb vehicle 1400km with one person in it emits more CO2 per capita than a jet with 200 people going ~1000ish km by air (the straight line distance is shorter).

That's true, highway mileage of my truck is hovering around 16-17L/100km.

Originally Posted by wave46

So, you're saving the planet by flying (unless you're packing the truck with people, which changes the equation).

It seats two.

Originally Posted by wave46

Edit: I picked Sept. 11 by fluke. Whoops. That was not intentional.

Tuesday is the cheapest day to fly. Sometimes half the price compared to Saturday. When September 11th happens on a Tuesday (as it did in 2001, 2007, 2012 and 2018 and will again in 2024 and 2029) the effect is amplified.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by vid

Tuesday is the cheapest day to fly. Sometimes half the price compared to Saturday. When September 11th happens on a Tuesday (as it did in 2001, 2007, 2012 and 2018 and will again in 2024 and 2029) the effect is amplified.

Q: Guess who's flying to Thunder Bay those days!

A: I don't know. Somebody else, probably.

I am running out of inane numbers to play this game.

[vid]

We have a very nice airport and it's in the city, you don't have to drive down a scary highway to get there. Only one in Northern Ontario where the airport is surrounded by urban sprawl. I was discussing with a friend recently that they should formally name it after Elizabeth Smellie. "Smellie International Airport".

[Dengler Avenue]

So really, the story goes like this:
TCH in Northern Ontario used to be of local function, more or less.
Then we privatized rail, increasing the number of trucks that use TCH.
The truck volume, though peanuts compared to that in GTA, is making the locals uneasy, rightfully or wrongfully so.
The problem that TCH has no EDR isn’t really ignorable anymore.

So autonomous trucks are the way forward?

[sonysnob]

Privatization of rail was as a result of increased trucking volumes, it didn't cause it. Many goods are still shipped cross-country via rail. For long-distance freight that isn't time sensitive, rail is most often the cheapest way to have goods shipped.

There are lots of trucks across northern Ontario, but like most highways, the bulk of the traffic is more locally oriented. It's not that the delays of road closures don't have a real cost. Of course they do. It's just that the economic loss that comes from freight delays from highway closures isn't as high as the capital cost that would be required to construct a full length divided highway along with a full length EDR route.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

So really, the story goes like this:
TCH in Northern Ontario used to be of local function, more or less.
Then we privatized rail, increasing the number of trucks that use TCH.
The truck volume, though peanuts compared to that in GTA, is making the locals uneasy, rightfully or wrongfully so.
The problem that TCH has no EDR isn’t really ignorable anymore.

So autonomous trucks are the way forward?

Everything except that last 2 points is right. It it quite ignorable - we had been ignoring it since the 1960s.

To be fair, there's only a couple of stretches in which there's absolutely no detour: 11-17 between Thunder Bay and Nipigon and 17 between Kenora and Manitoba. Those stretches are either being 4-laned (which mitigates the closure problem) or are planned to be fixed (whenever they feel like getting to it).

I don't see how autonomous trucks really factor into it.

The TCH works fine 363+ days of the year on most stretches. It is like buying a generator for your house for another blackout like the one that happened in 2003. Yeah, a major failure could happen again, but who knows when and is that money better spent elsewhere, like in your retirement savings account?

[vid]

Privatized rail caused a decline in passenger rail traffic and an increase in freight rail traffic, which is increasing further with more technology allowing longer trains spaced more closely together. There is a lot of traffic that is not destined for this region driving through it, though. The traffic on Dawson Road attests to that.

The fact that there is no EDR isn't an issue here because the value of the people and goods in the north aren't worth as much as the same things in the south. That's why we get a 50% discount on licence renewal fees. And sure, if one person dies because the only ambulance is stuck on the other end of a closed highway with no detour that's sad, but has it ever happened??????

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by vid

Privatized rail caused a decline in passenger rail traffic and an increase in freight rail traffic, which is increasing further with more technology allowing longer trains spaced more closely together. There is a lot of traffic that is not destined for this region driving through it, though. The traffic on Dawson Road attests to that.

The fact that there is no EDR isn't an issue here because the value of the people and goods in the north aren't worth as much as the same things in the south. That's why we get a 50% discount on licence renewal fees. And sure, if one person dies because the only ambulance is stuck on the other end of a closed highway with no detour that's sad, but has it ever happened??????

I have always thought it would be a great thing if VIA officially carried mail. Even if it is a bag per major station, then.... they could cause all other trains to yield.

[vid]

I'm sure CP and CN have enough money and connections to prevent that from happening.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by vid

I'm sure CP and CN have enough money and connections to prevent that from happening.

But there is a law that all other trains must yield mail trains.

[vid]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

But there is a law that all other trains must yield mail trains.

Yes, and there will be a law that VIA Rail trains cannot carry mail if politicians try to do anything to the detriment of CP and CN profit margins. Regardless, VIA doesn't go to Thunder Bay.

The best option would be complete and total nationalization of the country's rail infrastructure but we know that will never happen.

[sonysnob]

Originally Posted by vid

Privatized rail caused a decline in passenger rail traffic and an increase in freight rail traffic, which is increasing further with more technology allowing longer trains spaced more closely together. There is a lot of traffic that is not destined for this region driving through it, though. The traffic on Dawson Road attests to that.

The fact that there is no EDR isn't an issue here because the value of the people and goods in the north aren't worth as much as the same things in the south. That's why we get a 50% discount on licence renewal fees. And sure, if one person dies because the only ambulance is stuck on the other end of a closed highway with no detour that's sad, but has it ever happened??????

Does the Dawson Road really attest to that? The final western 18km of Hwy 102 only carries 2500 vehicles per day.

The privatization of rail may have been the final nail in the coffin for most passenger rail services across the country. But really, that just ended a decades long decline that had been ongoing for decades. Passenger rail service wasn't exactly flourishing before the services were cut.

[Dengler Avenue]

I wonder why there isn't that much interaction between Western Canada (i.e. Prairies) and Eastern Canada (i.e. Ontario and points east). I assume that, if the two aren't well connected, it's because there isn't that much interaction between them after all.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

I wonder why there isn't that much interaction between Western Canada (i.e. Prairies) and Eastern Canada (i.e. Ontario and points east). I assume that, if the two aren't well connected, it's because there isn't that much interaction between them after all.

Thousands of people fly between Western Canada and Eastern Canada daily.

Billions of dollars of trade occurs between them via road, rail and pipeline.

People just don't drive much between them because the distance across Northern Ontario is vast and not very populated.