No guarantees that Stage 3 LRT funding is a short-term lock in Liberal minority
Jon Willing, Ottawa Citizen
Updated: October 22, 2019
Don’t think that three levels of government will quickly come up with a plan to fund LRT extensions to Kanata and Barrhaven.
The re-election of a federal Liberal government, which was knocked down to minority status after Monday’s vote, should give city hall some security on funding from the upper-tier level of government for a few years.
But the federal election doesn’t make Stage 3 O-Train funding a sure thing during the next term of government, mostly because there’s a huge amount of transit-planning work still to be done by city hall and there’s a chance another federal election could happen before the work is done.
It’s even remarkable that the city in 2019 has been talking about the real prospect of starting a Stage 3 expansion. The city is just learning how to run a LRT-backboned transit system and it recently started clearing trees and digging up land for the Stage 2 expansion, whose contracts only received council’s blessing last spring.
A Stage 3 isn’t in the city’s plans until sometime after 2031, but communities are eager to get LRT access.
When the city broke ground on Stage 1 in 2013, people already wanted to know when trains would travel farther past Tunney’s Pasture and Blair stations. It took about six years until Stage 2 started construction. The full Stage 2 project, which has O-Train extensions in four directions, is scheduled to be done in 2025.
If, like Stage 2, the city wants to begin construction on Stage 3 when the previous stage opens, it would need to move fast to complete the ground work.
The environmental assessment for Kanata LRT is done, which means it has been the first in line for funding. But the city is keen on having a Stage 3 with both Kanata and Barrhaven receiving LRT links at the same time. A Barrhaven LRT environmental assessment is scheduled to be wrapped up near the end of 2020.
The cost of the Barrhaven LRT extension to Chapman Mills Drive will be estimated in the environmental assessment. The full Kanata LRT extension to Hazeldean Road, south of the Canadian Tire Centre, has been ballparked at $1.85 billion.
The city is counting on the two upper levels of government to pay for Stage 3 with no property tax money contributed.
While the Barrhaven study is happening, the city needs to update its authoritative guide to expanding transportation infrastructure.
A refresh of the transportation master plan isn’t scheduled to be complete until spring 2022. The policy document, which will require council’s approval, is the ultimate blueprint for how and when the city builds new roads, cycling lanes and LRT lines.
Making things more complicated is a provincial Progressive Conservative government that’s interested in expanding public transit (certainly in the Toronto area) but trying to manage spending.
Elections can work in cities’ favour, though.
The next provincial election is scheduled for spring 2022 and a Stage 3 funding commitment is something that could help PC incumbents in the west and south ends of Ottawa.
There could be another federal election in that rough timeframe, depending on the stability of the Liberal minority.
Mayor Jim Watson pressed federal candidates in recent weeks to support Stage 3, but it might have been too early to make that play, especially without having a full cost estimate ready for Barrrhaven LRT. The soft answers by local Liberal candidates to a question in Watson’s survey regarding their commitment to Stage 3 funding might indicate just that.
So, despite a degree of comfort with a Liberal minority government at city hall, there are still questions on Stage 3 funding.
There are other questions Ottawa residents might have with a new federal government coming in. Here are two in particular.
Who will be the political master of the National Capital Commission?
The Liberals gave the heritage minister the responsibility for the NCC in the most recent federal government, where the former Conservative government chose cabinet ministers from the National Capital Region to oversee the agency, such as Pierre Polievre, John Baird and Lawrence Cannon. Montreal MP Pablo Rodriguez is currently in charge as heritage minister. Another Montreal MP, Mélanie Joly, was previously in charge before cabinet portfolios were changed.
What’s really going to happen with the Prince of Wales Bridge?
Watson said trains will never run across the old Ottawa River crossing because Bayview Station would be overloaded with transit customers. Federal Liberal candidates promised support to help turn the bridge into a multi-use interprovincial pathway. The transportation master plan includes the city-owned bridge as a future rail link to Gatineau, which is why the city bought it in the first place. Coun. Theresa Kavanagh wants to know on what basis the city has decided the bridge won’t be used for rail. She’s not the only one at city hall who will be interested in the answer from staff.
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