Amazon HQ2: Vancouver as a candidate?

[Delirium]

Sorry to burst any bubble here but it'll never be in Canada. Period.
American cities are offering incentives Canadian cities just can't compete with. Trump is transitory - Amazon is not.

[cornholio]

One also must remember this is a second global headquarter, not a regional one. Locating across the border doesn't make sense as it complicates operations and adds tremendous risk over the coming decades as regulations change. Canada is not particularly stable in their relation ship to the US and its why companies generally move from Canada to the US, not the other way around. Really it makes no sense to operate in Canada if you don't have to and I don't see why they would have to. (keep in mind this is their headquarters and different from their distribution and outsourced development offices that try to tap workers but can be shut down on a moments notice without disrupting the company..the Amazon offices in Vancouver are temporary and any sort of restructure or downsize / ramp down can mean they close doors overnight)

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture

Trump is a blip on the radar for a company like Amazon. he will be around for a MAX of 8 years. their HQ will be around for decades. it would be a dumb idea to base your location off of Trump since that is such a short term issue.

but amazon may look at Canada/Vancouver due to US immigration/visa issues, which will likely be resistant to change for a long time to come.

proximity to seattle is key. IMO Vancouver isn't a strong candidate for HQ2 for this reason, but has a good chance as a Canadian campus of the seattle HQ. if HQ2 is located elsewhere in the US, but not in toronto, Vancouver may have a niche.

[nds88]

Originally Posted by VancouverOfTheFuture

Trump is a blip on the radar for a company like Amazon. he will be around for a MAX of 8 years. their HQ will be around for decades. it would be a dumb idea to base your location off of Trump since that is such a short term issue.

Trump is pro business. He's attempting to lower taxes and reduce regulation. It doesn't matter if he says goofy stuff on Twitter, this is huge from an economic perspective and very attractive to companies. Although he is not a fan of Bezos owned Washington Post, I doubt he can target Amazon directly.

I'm not sure of Trump's specific immigration/visa policies, but regarding the temporary "travel ban" strictly from a business perspective (which is something Amazon and other tech giants balk about....imo just to be PC)....really, how much tech talent comes out of Syria and North Korea??? I think some tech talent might come out of Iran, but other than that, I don't think the travel ban will have a huge effect regarding tech talent supply. Certainly not enough to sway Amazon's decision to move out of the US because individuals from "volatile" countries can't come in for a while.

Our new Provincial government and municipal leader (Vancouver) are not business friendly enough. Trudeau is also attempting to raise taxes and sank low enough to try and tax employee discounts. Not attractive to be starting business in Canada at the moment.

[Pinion]

Trump is nothing but pro-Trump. These supposed pro-business politicians always tank the economy.

[nds88]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Trump is nothing but pro-Trump. These supposed pro-business politicians always tank the economy.

I couldn't care less if Trump is pro-Trump...as long as more money is put in my pocket and my wealth goes up. North America is dying while Asia rises. I'm fearful of a return to the dark ages when the NDP (and that mentality in general is taking over) was in power over 15 years ago.

Amazon won't touch Vancouver for HQ2 now. I can just image the insane demands the Vancouver proposal will want of Amazon. We can't even build a tower without them trying to extort ridiculousness out of developers....which just results in costs being passed on to buyers. Vancouver is attractive as a satellite site by taking over existing space. If Amazon were to locate here and get a foothold with the intention of building a comparable HQ, the City will be nothing but a hinderance of bureaucracy (at least under Gregor and Horgan) and Amazon will want to expand and get things done quickly.

I wonder how difficult it was for Hootsuite to get their new campus? Amazon HQ2 would be over 10 times that.

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by nds88

I couldn't care less if Trump is pro-Trump...as long as more money is put in my pocket and my wealth goes up.

Well that ain't happening due to Trump's decisions.

Vancouver is a lost cause due to unchecked global "free market" capitalism, not the two-faced, fake environmentalists on Vancouver city council. If we had regulated housing we'd still be a relatively happy little town with a normal, healthy economy.

[Cypherus]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Well that ain't happening due to Trump's decisions.

Vancouver is a lost cause due to unchecked global "free market" capitalism, not the two-faced, fake environmentalists on Vancouver city council. If we had regulated housing we'd still be a relatively happy little town with a normal, healthy economy.

Actually Vancouver is the subject of unchecked Globalism, which is a Liberal ideology. If "free market" capitalism ran its course with no money laundering or wealth parking, you wouldn't see bid wars above fair market value. In other words, acquisition of property exceeding its free market price in Vancouver is not the fault of "capitalism", but globalism (i.e. open borders for money and open bank accounts to allow money from overseas through). I am sure Amazon and most corporations know this, because Vancouver is nothing more than a bedroom community with empty condos whose local grassroots population actually can't afford to live there.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Well that ain't happening due to Trump's decisions.

Vancouver is a lost cause due to unchecked global "free market" capitalism, not the two-faced, fake environmentalists on Vancouver city council. If we had regulated housing we'd still be a relatively happy little town with a normal, healthy economy.

This is a question of curiosity, not a criticism in any way: Could you please tell me how housing in Vancouver could / would be regulated? It's a critical issue and any ideas are appreciated.
I have only vague, general ideas how this could be done, and they're probably inaccurate, but if you could specify points and and ways to regulate housing here, that'd be great. Thanx

[Cypherus]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

This is a question of curiosity, not a criticism in any way: Could you please tell me how housing in Vancouver could / would be regulated? It's a critical issue and any ideas are appreciated.
I have only vague, general ideas how this could be done, and they're probably inaccurate, but if you could specify points and and ways to regulate housing here, that'd be great. Thanx

I don't know why you're asking a forumer for suggestions to regulate housing market as there have already been a few recommendations made by tax regulators:

1)Houses selling for more than $750K no longer are qualify for principle residence exemption. As such, the whole property would be subject to capital gains instead of current tax free system (i.e. wealth family uses son/daughter in Canada who is attending UBC, for example, to buy a wealthy home in affluent neighborhood using family wealth, for son/daughter to live in; son/daughter sells property later as a principle residence and repatriates to home country with no taxation paid).
2)Secondary use property should be subject to capital gains inclusion rate of 75% instead of 50%.
3)No vacation homes in Vancouver - secondary property must be used for rental (Mayor Moonbeam).
4)No more allowing corporations to acquire residential real estate unless to rent it out or redevelop under a bona fide business. Current system has corporations being used to avoid foreign buyers tax and taxes. Generally, these corporations were owned by non-residents where the corporation buys the property, then flips the property later for capital appreciation. The non-residents sell shares of the corporation equal to the fair value of the corporation (i.e. its cash after selling the home above cost) to other non-residents, experiencing capital gains on their shares but no taxes paid to Canada (done willfully). Corporation still owns property but shares owned by new non-residents who repeat the process.

[djmk]

How is Vancouver's link to Asia compared to Seattle? And if there is a difference, would it matter to Amazon?

[nds88]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Well that ain't happening due to Trump's decisions.

Vancouver is a lost cause due to unchecked global "free market" capitalism, not the two-faced, fake environmentalists on Vancouver city council. If we had regulated housing we'd still be a relatively happy little town with a normal, healthy economy.

I'm referring to the hypothetical if I were a business owner in the US. If Trump lowers my taxes and reduces regulation so its easier for me to conduct my business, then he has my vote and he can Tweet whatever he wants.

Getting slightly off topic from Amazon HQ. Vancouver has the same global "free market" capitalism as any other North American city. We do not offer any favourable laws to buy Vancouver real estate over any other city. Its a great city to live in, I can't deny that. We should be encouraging high income jobs (tech and resources) to increase incomes to better sustain the global competition for our housing. To do this, our leaders need to start building our infrastructure better (rapid transit), more density, tax incentive, less micro managing, better night life etc to attract companies like Amazon setting up shop here. Purposely crashing/regulating the market is stealing wealth from property owners and won't solve anything.

We have low supply (land and zoning constraints) and the "most livable city" in North America = high demand...therefore price increases. We have no special incentives for any one from any where to buy here. Calgary, Winnipeg, Montreal, Seattle, San Diego, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta etc anyone can buy a home there. One can claim money laundering and wealth parking etc is behind Van real estate....but this can be done in any city. Why should Vancouver be the only regulated city with regard to housing?

In fact, American cities are more favorable to invest in real estate. I can sell a rental property in the US, and roll the profits into something more expensive and I DON'T PAY TAXES on the gains from property one. In Canada, I need to pay capital gains taxes...two steps forward one step back. In the US, I can compound my money in real estate without having to take a step back. You can also write off the interest portion of a mortgage. This can be argued that our real estate is already relatively regulated. Any more regulation then I might as well be in Venezuela.

Regulating housing will be very dangerous. Eventually things will cool, and when that happens and we need the growth in housing to sustain (it will be a gong show because people borrow from equity), the regulations will be in place and good luck getting our leaders to undo it at that time. When a recession hits and we need capital coming back in, those that invested before won't dare to touch us again after bending them over once.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by nds88

I'm referring to the hypothetical if I were a business owner in the US. If Trump lowers my taxes and reduces regulation so its easier for me to conduct my business, then he has my vote and he can Tweet whatever he wants.

Getting slightly off topic from Amazon HQ. Vancouver has the same global "free market" capitalism as any other North American city. We do not offer any favourable laws to buy Vancouver real estate over any other city. Its a great city to live in, I can't deny that. We should be encouraging high income jobs (tech and resources) to increase incomes to better sustain the global competition for our housing. To do this, our leaders need to start building our infrastructure better (rapid transit), more density, tax incentive, less micro managing, better night life etc to attract companies like Amazon setting up shop here. Purposely crashing/regulating the market is stealing wealth from property owners and won't solve anything.

We have low supply (land and zoning constraints) and the "most livable city" in North America = high demand...therefore price increases. We have no special incentives for any one from any where to buy here. Calgary, Winnipeg, Montreal, Seattle, San Diego, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta etc anyone can buy a home there. One can claim money laundering and wealth parking etc is behind Van real estate....but this can be done in any city. Why should Vancouver be the only regulated city with regard to housing?

In fact, American cities are more favorable to invest in real estate. I can sell a rental property in the US, and roll the profits into something more expensive and I DON'T PAY TAXES on the gains from property one. In Canada, I need to pay capital gains taxes...two steps forward one step back. In the US, I can compound my money in real estate without having to take a step back. You can also write off the interest portion of a mortgage. This can be argued that our real estate is already relatively regulated. Any more regulation then I might as well be in Venezuela.

Regulating housing will be very dangerous. Eventually things will cool, and when that happens and we need the growth in housing to sustain (it will be a gong show because people borrow from equity), the regulations will be in place and good luck getting our leaders to undo it at that time. When a recession hits and we need capital coming back in, those that invested before won't dare to touch us again after bending them over once.

Good ideas in principle - one thing I would like to clarify though.

This idea of bringing "high earning" jobs is a bit of a fallacy.

Let me preface this by saying, I am absolutely in favour of fostering growth in industries of the future, this is not a vote against that.

The issue is the actual level of pricing vs income.

Our costs have gotten so astronomical that no legal industry is capable of supporting our market.

Specifically - you have 2 high income earners, say a household pre-tax income of $240,000. These two will be living in a one bedroom condo, possibly 2 bedroom at best (assuming new transplants without ridiculous equity from previous Van RE), if they have a kid and a car, they are going to be scraping by, when accounted for daycare, cost of living, and taxes.

The earnings would have to be in the very high six figures to get an appreciably better lifestyle than that.

I suspect that most people given the choice would still choose an alternative option.

We have already seen this with many senior positions - recently, Telus CEO choosing to not relocated to Vancouver due to cost.

And certainly no shortage of recent articles of hourly workers leaving the Lower Mainland for elsewhere BC due to wages being similar, but costs of living dramatically lower.

In the recent example I'm thinking of, Mechanics earning $35-40hr are impossible to come by locally, they rather earn the same elsewhere.

Even I been having the same though lately - why not sell my condo and trade it for a fixer upper in Anywhere that's not Lower Mainland, BC, without need for a mortgage or a tiny one most.

Even if I take a 25% pay cut in my somewhat specialised career - net/net I would be way ahead.

[LeftCoaster]

The Amazon offices being opened in Vancouver are not temporary and are not immigration staging grounds.

I don't know why everyone think that's what the tech scene in Vancouver is just because Microsoft tried this 10 years ago. Even more so I don't know why they say it with such certainty when they have no involvement with the deal and no particular insider insight.

Believe it or not American technology firms want to locate and operate in Vancouver, its really not that hard to believe given this country's liberal attitudes, immigration policies and favourable employment costs.

But those on this forum who just can't find a single positive thing to say will keep finding reasons to be negative and complain.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

The Amazon offices being opened in Vancouver are not temporary and are not immigration staging grounds.

I don't know why everyone think that's what the tech scene in Vancouver is just because Microsoft tried this 10 years ago. Even more so I don't know why they say it with such certainty when they have no involvement with the deal and no particular insider insight.

Believe it or not American technology firms want to locate and operate in Vancouver, its really not that hard to believe given this country's liberal attitudes, immigration policies and favourable employment costs.

But those on this forum who just can't find a single positive thing to say will keep finding reasons to be negative and complain.

I agree with you, but the sentiment is there because is has been done before. Facebook operated here for a temporary period as well.

Even if these companies are using this to hire from outside of North America because our immigration rules are different, it's still a bonus. What is the limit on high paid professional immigrants we want here?

[nds88]

Originally Posted by rofina

Even I been having the same though lately - why not sell my condo and trade it for a fixer upper in Anywhere that's not Lower Mainland, BC, without need for a mortgage or a tiny one most.

If you cash out for $1,500/sf and live like a king else where, I'm all for that. But my issue with regulating (ie attempting to manipulate/crash) the market is that its not just. The person (whether local or foreign) that paid $1,500/sf and then the premier/mayor attempt to purposely devalue their asset is wrong. That will hurt trust and confidence in investment. Someone saved up for their down payment and committed to monthly payments only to have it manipulated by government because they feel its too expensive and others deserve to have property at a discount. We are selfish creatures and there is no way in hell I want my property value to be cut in half on purpose. I couldn't care less if a waiter or mechanic can live where I live. If I want them to service my car locally, I'll have to pay more, or the desirability of my area will go down and less demand will want to live where I live.

The idea that condos are empty throughout the city is overblown. I live in a relatively pricey area and my building, and surrounding buildings, are full. Things are selling fast at $1,300-$1,500/sf and rent for a shoebox is $2,000+. There's service staff, mechanics, constructions workers etc around and I have absolutely no complaints feeling a specific need is not met.

One could argue its for the overall good (ie keeping mechanics, labourers, waitresses etc) and should be regulated because it benefits everyone. The market will itself correct itself, although would take time. If it got so expensive and service staff etc left, then the desirability would go down and demand to live in these areas go down. On the flip side, if these people with money want the services nearby, then the market will demand they pay higher wages to attract the staff back. If they want to drive up the price for an area and not pay enough to attract service, then they suck up the cost/time to commute to services themselves or move. Monaco has $5,000+/sf real estate and it functions fine. Service staff commute in (hence why I'm a huge supporter of rapid transit...one of the few things I don't mind paying more taxes for). They have other options but realize that's the best.

Now, if there is a second credit crunch or a global recession and the Vancouver real estate market crashes on its own, then the government should not bail out those who paid $1,500/sf for something that the market itself now values at $600/sf. Its a two way street.

Now back to the issue with Amazon. If Amazon comes in Vancouver with 50,000+ 6 figure jobs, that will just raise the average income even more. Prices and rents are going to skyrocket on top of a skyrocket. I like the idea how Brentwood, Lougheed, Metrotown, Surrey Center are creating mini downtowns. This could spread out areas of commerce/jobs so people don't need to commute to Vancouver. I'm all for rapid transit expansion (preferably underground expansion so traffic is not impeded and pedestrians don't need to cross streets....Tokyo was amazing like that, hardly any traffic relative to their density) and development of mini downtowns near transit and creating highly desirable amenities surrounding. People will have less reason to strive to live in Vancouver if there are comparable "flashy" areas by rapid transit, so Vancouver demand decreases.

[whatnext]

According to a study Vancouver ranks dead last in a list of 64 possible cities for Amazon HQ2:

http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vanco...on-hq2-ranking

[LowerLonsdaleMike]

Originally Posted by whatnext

According to a study Vancouver ranks dead last in a list of 64 possible cities for Amazon HQ2:

http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vanco...on-hq2-ranking

The key word here is a "study". It's quite amusing seeing folks comments on social media about this study. I don't think Vancouver will win the HQ, but I'm pretty sure it won't end up dead last. This is someones interpretation of Amazon's decision process, not a definitive roster.

[WarrenC12]

If Vancouver really gets the ~1000 jobs promised a few weeks back, we made out better than 62 other cities on that list.

[sacrifice333]

Originally Posted by nds88

I'm not sure of Trump's specific immigration/visa policies, but regarding the temporary "travel ban" strictly from a business perspective (which is something Amazon and other tech giants balk about....imo just to be PC)....really, how much tech talent comes out of Syria and North Korea??? I think some tech talent might come out of Iran, but other than that, I don't think the travel ban will have a huge effect regarding tech talent supply. Certainly not enough to sway Amazon's decision to move out of the US because individuals from "volatile" countries can't come in for a while.

As a part of Trump's various immigration changes there've been two key changes to the H1-B visa -- the visa most relied upon by the tech industry. First, the fast processing option known as premium processing was suspended. Secondly, the minimum salary requirement of the H1-B visa used to be $60,000USD. Trump was trying to have it doubled to $120K. The House Judiciary Committee just voted to increase it to $90K.

These changes could indeed push tech businesses elsewhere.