BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[retro_orange]

haha it can be organized cheaply on social media and done in an effective manner with no damage or loss of lives , little more than hurt feelings and lower profit margins to those running amok with our housing... I'm not talking about a military coup here, just a reality check.

[WarrenC12]

Is a revolt really what we are talking about here? It's far closer in the US, where the corruption is putting them in banana-republic territory. Those are the places that revolt.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by urbancanadian

I won't ask you to post all that, but could you say which ridings will be the ones to watch, in your opinion?

If you watch results come in tonight, the major TV stations will point out the swing ridings as results come in. OTOH, Greg Lyle of Innovative Research came out out with a "cheat sheet" today pointing out same, which has received some accolades:

http://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/BC-Election-Cheat-Sheet.pdf

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by retro_orange

haha it can be organized cheaply on social media and done in an effective manner with no damage or loss of lives , little more than hurt feelings and lower profit margins to those running amok with our housing... I'm not talking about a military coup here, just a reality check.

Like Occupy 2012 right? Are you suggesting that the people here will bring change by boycotting industries or any economic activity?

Listen, I want a change in government to bring forth meaningful change to BC Politics, however we are in this stagnant hell until the boomers die off- and even then...you have a plethora of affluent immigrants taking their place year after year. The youth vote is lost to apathy, the lower class vote is lost due to multiple reasons and the middle class are usually split. Furthermore, the Interior will always be a Liberal haven as many individuals have been indoctrinated to trust fiscal conservatism.

That's why I say...and will continue to say that it is probably best to high tail it out of here. It would take a significant housing crash and/or economic collapse to send the Liberals out the door.

My final prediction based on everything that has transpired:

Liberal 51 seats, NDP 34 seats, Green 3 seats.

Why?

The Liberals ran a rather quiet campaign but their base was very vocal in reminding BC about the NDP from the 90s and the hardship that ensued. In the end, many preferred the status quo or the "devil they knew" over "change."

The NDP made the mistake of pandering to many marginalized groups (ie. renters, those requiring subsidies, Metro Vancouver transit riders) and completely overlooked small businesses and homeowners. John Horgan pretty much ignored the Interior and Vancouver Island (once again, ignoring rural areas is a dangerous move).

It will be apparent that the green will have split the votes in some riding's to ensure the Liberals advanced. That's all the impact the Green will have. I particularly expect Steve Darling to be a noticeable winner in a highly contentious area concerned about the KM pipeline- the NDP endorsing the project was a poor move in that regard.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Common Sense

The election will be determined by the swing seats. 14 of the seats were won by less than 1000 votes.

"Which means all eyes will be on the nine seats the B.C. Liberals won by five per cent or less in 2013: Surrey-Fleetwood (200 votes), Delta North (203 votes), Port Moody-Coquitlam (437), Vancouver-Fraserview (470), Cariboo North (603), Fraser-Nicola (614), Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (620), Burnaby North (688) and North Vancouver-Lonsdale (1,188)."

Even though riding polls (CATI methodology) are "gold nuggets" IMHO, I'm not a fan of IVR methodology such as Mainstreet Research for myriad of reasons. That said, yesterday Mainstreet Research released 4 riding polls inclusive of 3 mentioned by the foregoing poster. Interesting... but take with grain of salt:

Each riding poll had a sample size of n = ~400...

1. Surrey-Fleetwood:

Lib: 48%
NDP: 39%
Green: 13%

2. Delta North:

Lib: 41%
NDP: 39%
Green: 20%

3. Fraser-Nicola:

Lib: 54%
NDP: 26%
Green: 20%

[logicbomb]

Early election results looking REALLY good for the BC Liberals.

Nearly 49% of the vote share in the Province.

It's done. The Liberals are pulling way ahead.

edit: 51% now? Surely the seats will reflect this.

[MIPS]

I knew I should of spoiled my ballot on the Communist Party.

[logicbomb]

Vote change thus far.

Liberals +2.9%
NDP -3.5%
Green +7%

There you go. The vote was split and the Greens made some huge gains.

End result is expected to be a big Liberal majority.

[bluefox]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Early election results looking REALLY good for the BC Liberals.

Nearly 49% of the vote share in the Province.

It's done. The Liberals are pulling way ahead.

edit: 51% now? Surely the seats will reflect this.

Elections BC says 47.5% Liberal. Still way above 2013.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by bluefox

Elections BC says 47.5% Liberal. Still way above 2013.

They will break 50 seats. Holy shit what a devastating loss for the BC NDP and the Greens.

Where does the NDP go from here? They nearly bankrupt their entire party's funding gunning for it this election.

[MIPS]

-potentially not the time for this. Redacted-

[bluefox]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

They will break 50 seats. Holy shit what a devastating loss for the BC NDP and the Greens.

Where does the NDP go from here? They nearly bankrupt their entire party's funding gunning for it this election.

Well, it's below 45% now. But night's not over yet.

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by MIPS

Welp, that's enough for me. Back to my alcoholism while I live in a car and get yelled at by the chinese schmuck saying I'm parked in "his spot".

Can I sleep on your hood man? I'll keep a fistful of kitty litter for those haters.

[MIPS]

-yeah, gonna forget about this as well-

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

They will break 50 seats. Holy shit what a devastating loss for the BC NDP and the Greens.

Where does the NDP go from here? They nearly bankrupt their entire party's funding gunning for it this election.

Umm what channel are you watching? CTV shows a near tie in seats. BC Libs being pushed Trumplike out of the cities.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Umm what channel are you watching? CTV shows a near tie in seats. BC Libs being pushed Trumplike out of the cities.

It was earlier on. The Liberals were leading 30 to 12 at one point, but it was a bit too early.

Looking like a very close race and the advanced ballots are still to come.

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Umm what channel are you watching? CTV shows a near tie in seats. BC Libs being pushed Trumplike out of the cities.

The fact that people continue to take early results showing 80 votes counted seriously continues to astonish me

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

The fact that people continue to take early results showing 80 votes counted seriously continues to astonish me

Not hard to see that the BC Libs are losing the most seats and being pushed to being on rural dependent party

[Kisai]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Not hard to see that the BC Libs are losing the most seats and being pushed to being on rural dependent party

Well it's been bouncing around between 44 for NDP, 41 Liberal, 2 green, to 45 for Liberal, 39 NDP, 3 green.

Andrew Weaver's riding just now reported in.

[whatnext]

It will be very interesting to see if the Greens are forced to choose between backing the NDP or Libs to form government. Weaver has trash talked Horgan, but if he backs Clark he will destroy the Green Party!