BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[WarrenC12]

I think the BC Libs will squeek out a majority by a few seats, but will end up with something like 38% of the vote, pissing off a lot of people.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I think the BC Libs will squeek out a majority by a few seats, but will end up with something like 38% of the vote, pissing off a lot of people.

seeing how people react after they count the ballots tomorrow night will certainly be, interesting, to say the least.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I think the BC Libs will squeek out a majority by a few seats, but will end up with something like 38% of the vote, pissing off a lot of people.

Say the Greens get 12% of the vote

100% - 12% - 38% = 50%

Unless the greens surprise everyone, somehow I think its currently impossible for any party to get a majority of the seats with 38% of the vote

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by djmk

Say the Greens get 12% of the vote

100% - 12% - 38% = 50%

Unless the greens surprise everyone, somehow I think its currently impossible for any party to get a majority of the seats with 38% of the vote

The greens are polling in the low 20s. They are going to get a ton of votes compared to the seats they actually win.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by djmk

Say the Greens get 12% of the vote

100% - 12% - 38% = 50%

Unless the greens surprise everyone, somehow I think its currently impossible for any party to get a majority of the seats with 38% of the vote

I think the greens will win more than 12% of the vote, I'm betting they will make it to 15%.

I think the BC Liberals will win 42% of the vote, NDP 40% of the vote, Greens 15%, 3% other

[Jebby]

Originally Posted by Common Sense

Sure it is working well because of the equalization payments for the Federal government. Basically taxpayers from the rest of the country is funding Quebec's daycare program.

Another reason I'm voting for Bernier as the leader of the CP.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Quebec gets those payments with or without the daycare program, so that's meaningless.

Yup. Equalization doesn't give Quebec more money than the ROC. It just equalizes the playing field. How they choose to divvy that up is their choice just as in every other province.

[Jebby]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

Yup. Equalization doesn't give Quebec more money than the ROC. It just equalizes the playing field. How they choose to divvy that up is their choice just as in every other province.

"Equalizing the playing field" is bad for struggling provinces as well as for those that do well. It gives provinces no incentive to keep improving, punishes those that do well, and rewards provinces to keep expanding government spending.

It's ridiculous that a province like Ontario receives payment from the other provinces, for example.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Oh look, people that have literally NO IDEA how equalization payments work are arguing for their abolition.

Why am I not surprised?

Alberta isn't having money taken away and given to other provinces, thats not how equalization payments work. Ottawa takes in tax money from all provinces an an equal rate and the taxes raised by Ottawa are divvied up based on need to the provinces to spend in their jurisdiction.

http://thoughtundermined.com/2012/04/24/equalization-misconceptions/

[Jebby]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Oh look, people that have literally NO IDEA how equalization payments work are arguing for their abolition.

Why am I not surprised?

Alberta isn't having money taken away and given to other provinces, thats not how equalization payments work. Ottawa takes in tax money from all provinces an an equal rate and the taxes raised by Ottawa are divvied up based on need to the provinces to spend in their jurisdiction.

http://thoughtundermined.com/2012/04/24/equalization-misconceptions/

Of course it is taking money away from richer provinces and giving more to poorer provinces. That is the whole point of the program, to give provinces that have less potential to collect taxes a "level playing field". That the entire premise behind the program, to give "poorer" provinces more money to be able to offer services at the same level as "richer" provinces on programs that are pretty much entirely within provincial jurisdiction.

[bb1510]

What christy clark's son posted:

[Metro-One]

Anyone who thinks they can predict the outcome of this election is fooling themselves.

I know so many people who are switching sides this election or not voting it is not even funny.

My Dad for example has voted for the NDP in every election they have been in, not this time, he is voting Green.

[hollywoodnorth]

Go CHRISTY Go!

[bluefox]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Keep in mind I highly doubt this will happen anyway, I think it will go something more like this.

Liberal 53 seats
NDP 30 seats
greens 4

My final projection is 53 Liberals, 32 NDP and 2 Greens. Very close to you!

Overall, the likeliest pickups for the Greens in order (IMO) are: Saanich North, Cowichan Valley, Esquimalt-Metchosin, Victoria-Beacon Hill, New Westminster and Nelson-Creston. I'd put Beacon Hill as third most likely but since the Esquimalt seat is open it's a better opportunity for the Greens.

[Common Sense]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

Anyone who thinks they can predict the outcome of this election is fooling themselves.

I know so many people who are switching sides this election or not voting it is not even funny.

My Dad for example has voted for the NDP in every election they have been in, not this time, he is voting Green.

Yes, I think you are right. The Greens will take votes away from The Liberals too. A lot of former Liberal voters don't like Christy Clark or the party and will vote for the Greens as a protest vote instead of the NDP.

[Bcasey25raptor]

I still believe the Liberals will be victorious but it is true the Greens are not JUST taking from the NDP.

In fact a recent poll shows 80% of NDP voters from 2013 say they will vote NDP again while only 79% of BC Liberal voters say the same.

[Stingray2004]

I was going to post a long detailed final analysis with corroborating data points, 9 swing/key riding polls, other key data points + key Liberal strategist material musings on their internal poll data (Unlike the cheap public poll freebies... these guys spend $hundreds of thousands on "Rolls Royce-equivalent" CATI methodology data - daily riding tracking polls/provincial polls - they nailed both riding & provincial results in 2013).

But, alas, it' been a loooong day. Suffice to say, those surprised by the election results on 2013 e-day... will be even more surprised by tomorrow night's results.

Grab your bags of popcorn. Gonna be a fun one watching the results come in tomorrow night.

[BobLoblawsLawBlog]

My predictions

NDP - 39%
"""""Liberals"""" - 41%
Greens - 14%
Conseratives - 5%
Everything else - <1%

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by Jebby

Of course it is taking money away from richer provinces and giving more to poorer provinces. That is the whole point of the program, to give provinces that have less potential to collect taxes a "level playing field". That the entire premise behind the program, to give "poorer" provinces more money to be able to offer services at the same level as "richer" provinces on programs that are pretty much entirely within provincial jurisdiction.

It's a much better system than having permanently crippled regions like Alabama in the US.

My prediction is the BC Liberals will benefit from the Greens splitting the left with the NDP and will stay in power without popular support. And once again I will be furious that our stupid province (and country) continues to dismiss STV.

Originally Posted by bb1510

What christy clark's son posted:

Like mother like son I guess. What a naive, hypocritical turd.

[urbancanadian]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Like mother like son I guess. What a naive, hypocritical turd.

He's only like 15 I think. It's pretty hard to have your own, developed opinions at that age. Especially when you consider virtually all of the information he takes in is heavily biased.

I just feel uneasy thinking that he's probably been tempted by the people around him to publically assert his positions before really understanding what he's talking about, whether he's right or wrong.