BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[Tetsuo]

The Greens are surging on the Prediction Market

Feels good, bought $50 worth of PV at $.10

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Betcha the greens surge in the polls after this, the NDP collapses, and the Liberals win a majority in 2 weeks.

Caveat emptor in terms of using terminology "polls". Same cheap/free polling junk akin to 2013 that fooled everyone - IVR (robo) and opt-in online panel methodologies, which have terrible track records in BC incl. 2015 fed election.

Was hoping that we would have at least one CATI (very expensive/accurate) poll by Innovative Research. But, alas, apparently not in the cards. You know... fed Nanos very high-quality stuff.

The only pollster receiving the majority of the attention is Mainstreet Research every week in the Vancouver Sun. Mainstreet is an IVR/robo pollster and some consider it (along with Forum Research) as the "McDonald's" of the Canadian polling industry. Moreover, a major "RED FLAG" therein, to me, in terms of their past 2 polls in terms of a key data metric that co-relates to voting intentions. Mainstreet appears to be wayyyyy off in terms of that key data metric compared to other pollsters/methodologies.

As an aside, right after the 2013 BC election debate, Ipsos (opt-in online panel methodology) took a snap poll of "Who Won Leader Debate?":

Dix: 35%
Clark: 30%
Sterk (Green): 10%
Cummins (BC Con): 3%

On that same evening, the BC Libs also undertook an internal poll on same question - utilizing CATI methodology:

Clark: 38%
Dix: 21%
Sterk: 6%
Cummins: 3%

As you can see - completely different results/data. Remember also that the 2013 BC Libs internal CATI riding polls predicted 48 seats on the Friday before Tuesday e-day, 2013. BC Libs actually won 49 seats. And the final BC Lib internal provincial numbers nailed the actual results. That's the power of very expensive/accurate CATI data.

Last night Mainstreet Research also conducted a "Who won the debate" poll:

Horgan: 33%
Weaver: 29%
Clark: 28%
Undecided: 10%

Personally, I thought Clark met expectations, Weaver exceeded expectations, and Horgan under-performed expectations at last nights debate. Of course, that is both an objective/subjective analysis.

Finally, nobody is aware that the BC Libs also conducted a CATI poll as well re: last nights debate but the fact they did so in 2013 confirms to me that they also did so last night. Moreover, 2 folk within the highest echelons of the BC Lib campaign (who have this CATI data) tweeted within the past 2 hours. Tweets are somewhat cryptic/"read between lines" stuff:

1. "Who dodged it worse: Dix or Horgan?";
2. "The More Things Change... the More Things Stay the Same" (in comparison to 2013).

PS. Weird election in some respects. I won't have a firm grasp of same until the end of next week.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Tetsuo

The Greens are surging on the Prediction Market

Feels good, bought $50 worth of PV at $.10

3 markets exists therein:

1. Popular Vote Market;
2. Seats Share Market;
3. Majority Gov't Market;

I assume that you are referring to Popular Vote Market? If so, hang on to same. If BC Greens had run full slate in 2013, they would have already obtained ~10% popular vote share under Jane Sterk. Under Weaver with a 83/87 slate they will out perform that in 2017.

BTW, back in 2013, on the Tuesday one week before e-day, I placed $1,000 (max. allowable) on the Majority Gov't Market when the Libs were at ~20%. Based upon obscure CATI data and other data points, I was very confident that the BC Libs had their 43 seats for a majority gov't. Bet paid off handsomely. Again, the problem with this market is that most purchase/sell "contracts" based upon public opinion polls, poll aggregators such as 308, etc. Poor/terrible infomration IMHO.

For 2017, was waiting until the "Majority Gov't Market" was at its lowest ebb for the BC Libs - so bought in Easter Sunday at 48% BC Lib majority - 3 separate accounts/3 legal entities for total of $3,000 (as max. allowable is $1,000). Will sit there until market closes on e-day. Again, very confident based upon various key data points akin to 2013.

[hollywoodnorth]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Betcha the greens surge in the polls after this, the NDP collapses, and the Liberals win a majority in 2 weeks.

my prediction as well!

[Tetsuo]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

3 markets exists therein:

1. Popular Vote Market;
2. Seats Share Market;
3. Majority Gov't Market;

I assume that you are referring to Popular Vote Market? If so, hang on to same. If BC Greens had run full slate in 2013, they would have already obtained ~10% popular vote share under Jane Sterk. Under Weaver with a 83/87 slate they will out perform that in 2017.

BTW, back in 2013, on the Tuesday one week before e-day, I placed $1,000 (max. allowable) on the Majority Gov't Market when the Libs were at ~20%. Based upon obscure CATI data and other data points, I was very confident that the BC Libs had their 43 seats for a majority gov't. Bet paid off handsomely. Again, the problem with this market is that most purchase/sell "contracts" based upon public opinion polls, poll aggregators such as 308, etc. Poor/terrible infomration IMHO.

For 2017, was waiting until the "Majority Gov't Market" was at its lowest ebb for the BC Libs - so bought in Easter Sunday at 48% BC Lib majority - 3 separate accounts/3 legal entities for total of $3,000 (as max. allowable is $1,000). Will sit there until market closes on e-day. Again, very confident based upon various key data points akin to 2013.

I'm extremely tempted to go in more in the other markets but don't want to get too greedy haha, the markets seemed to have learned from their mistake back in 2013, not as many great potential bargains as before

[Stingray2004]

Interesting. Mainstreet Research, which has been pumping out all of these cheap IVR/robo BC opinion polls has been "suspended" from MRIA - the Canadian governing body of polling companies - based upon an MRIA press release from April, 2017 due to the following:

The Adjudication Panel found that Mainstreet Research violated

1. Article 1 (Basic Principles)
2. Article 2 (Honesty)
3. Article 3 (Professional Responsibility) and
4. Article 11 (Publishing Findings)

https://mria-arim.ca/sites/default/uploads/files/Mainstreet%20Research%20Sanction%20Posting.pdf

Again, caveat emptor on this cheap polling junk - 2013 BC election polling redux.

[bluefox]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Last night Mainstreet Research also conducted a "Who won the debate" poll:

Horgan: 33%
Weaver: 29%
Clark: 28%
Undecided: 10%

Same poll put the Liberals in front with a narrow lead, albeit within the margin of error, and only among people who watched the debate. Is that an indication of a poll shift similar to 2013 even with shaky methodology? Maybe, probably, maybe not?

I'm with you on the analysis of the polls. CATI is a class of its own. Mainstreet aside, that Justason poll was an embarrassment.

[Tetsuo]

@Stingray2004

BCLIBS and BCGRN both falling lately on the prediction markets, time to jump in again

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Tetsuo

@Stingray2004

BCLIBS and BCGRN both falling lately on the prediction markets, time to jump in again

They are neck and neck right now, both the libs and NDP projected to win 40 seats, greens 6, and 1 other.
https://predictionmarkets.ca/BC17.php

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by bluefox

Same poll put the Liberals in front with a narrow lead, albeit within the margin of error, and only among people who watched the debate. Is that an indication of a poll shift similar to 2013 even with shaky methodology? Maybe, probably, maybe not?

I'm with you on the analysis of the polls. CATI is a class of its own. Mainstreet aside, that Justason poll was an embarrassment.

I had some criticism of mainstreet but I looked them up and it turns out they were the only ones to predict the following outright

1) Liberal majority in 2015
2) Alberta PC majority in 2012
and finally
3) BC Liberal majority in 2013

This track record tells me they are actually a reliable pollster so I'll await their poll that I presume will be released tomorrow.

Personally I have vested interests in a BC NDP government but I'm still betting on a BC Liberal majority due to history.

[red-paladin]

I updated the thread title.

These are the current CBC Poll Tracker data. It's hard to know what will happen:
From: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-2017-poll-tracker-1.4054593

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Tetsuo

@Stingray2004

BCLIBS and BCGRN both falling lately on the prediction markets, time to jump in again

Haha. I'm staying put until the end. Forum Research, IVR/robo pollster, apparently will have another poll out either tomorrow or the day after. FWIW, IVR/opt-in online is just cheap polling junk.

In any event, this cryptic tidbit from Forum Research pollster on social media within the last hour might be of interest:

No one's going to lose money shorting #BCNDP
10:09 PM - 1 May 2017

[CanSpice]

All I know about how it'll turn out is the Greens will gain some percentage of the popular vote and the NDP will whine about vote splitting, while ignoring the fact that the Greens take votes from the Liberals as well as the NDP (although probably not in equal numbers).

[cornholio]

Already cast my vote and I feel dirty. It was for the NDP. But at the end it came down to I would rather watch the province burn a little then vote for the Liberals who I truly believe are corrupt through and through. Nothing worse then a corrupt government that does not represent the majority.

I am still convinced the NDP will lose again though.

[logicbomb]

I voted for the Greens.

The NDP had another marvelous opportunity to take charge but they solely relied on outlandish promises and fell into the Liberals traps a few times.

The most obvious one is the action on tolls. Idiotic to consider removing tolls without considering any alternatives first...This would mean breaking contracts with TREO, dismantling infrastructure and having to redraft many proposals in Metro Vancouver that would have relied on tolls (Patullo, GMB). It was so bloody stupid and short-sided.

The NDP also forgot that a majority of British Columbians are homeowners- that rely off renters for income. Hence being overly sympathetic towards renters totally segregated the two groups. Proposing the renters rebate would have simply seen rent increase and would have negated any benefit. Again, it was a lazy ass approached to resolving a crisis.

The straw that broke the camel was when Weaver schooled Horgan with the "you have a plan to draw up a plan that would create the plan."

I swear a University Political Science group could have ran a better campaign than those idiots.

It's unfortunate because I absolutely hate Christy Clark and the sight of her face enrages me.

[urbancanadian]

Originally Posted by cornholio

Already cast my vote and I feel dirty. It was for the NDP. But at the end it came down to I would rather watch the province burn a little then vote for the Liberals who I truly believe are corrupt through and through. Nothing worse then a corrupt government that does not represent the majority.

I am still convinced the NDP will lose again though.

I'm with you on this entire post. I'll be voting NDP on May 9, and it's really tough choosing a party that is so economically inept. But there is only one issue that matters to me because in the long run it's the most important issue - who is promising to ban corporate/union political donations. In a two-way contest the NDP is promising such and the Liberals are not.

Allowing big money into politics is undemocratic because it puts a dollar value on free speech therefore giving more "speech" to those who have more money. It's time to put a end to it and I'm setting aside any party allegiances for what's right.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by bluefox

I'm with you on the analysis of the polls. CATI is a class of its own. Mainstreet aside, that Justason poll was an embarrassment.

Didn't think that it would happen... but Innovative Research did release the first and only CATI poll (expensive/accurate) of the 2017 campaign today. Decided results:

BC Lib: 38%
BC NDP: 33%
BC Green: 20.3%
BC Con: 6.3%
Other: 2.5%

The foregoing results are unprompted... IOW, no political parties mentioned. So what to make of the 6.3% BC Con vote? 2013 BC Lib CATI internals (unprompted) found:

1. 1/3 respondents had federal brand confusion;
2. 1/3 respondents parked vote with BC Cons until end of campaign when realize BC NDP might win and voted BC Lib;
3. 1/3 respondents actually BC Con voters;

These respondents don't even know just 10 BC Cons/87 ridings are on ballot.

Based upon other data points as well, have stated all along that this 2017 election is akin to a pre-1972 election... more particularly a 1969 election redux in terms of popular vote share (with names of parties changed today):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_1969

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Didn't think that it would happen... but Innovative Research did release the first and only CATI poll (expensive/accurate) of the 2017 campaign today. Decided results:

BC Lib: 38%
BC NDP: 33%
BC Green: 20.3%
BC Con: 6.3%
Other: 2.5%

The foregoing results are unprompted... IOW, no political parties mentioned. So what to make of the 6.3% BC Con vote? 2013 BC Lib CATI internals (unprompted) found:

1. 1/3 respondents had federal brand confusion;
2. 1/3 respondents parked vote with BC Cons until end of campaign when realize BC NDP might win and voted BC Lib;
3. 1/3 respondents actually BC Con voters;

These respondents don't even know just 10 BC Cons/87 ridings are on ballot.

Based upon other data points as well, have stated all along that this 2017 election is akin to a pre-1972 election... more particularly a 1969 election redux in terms of popular vote share (with names of parties changed today):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_1969

Very positive results I might add!

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Didn't think that it would happen... but Innovative Research did release the first and only CATI poll (expensive/accurate) of the 2017 campaign today. Decided results:

BC Lib: 38%
BC NDP: 33%
BC Green: 20.3%
BC Con: 6.3%
Other: 2.5%

The foregoing results are unprompted... IOW, no political parties mentioned. So what to make of the 6.3% BC Con vote? 2013 BC Lib CATI internals (unprompted) found:

1. 1/3 respondents had federal brand confusion;
2. 1/3 respondents parked vote with BC Cons until end of campaign when realize BC NDP might win and voted BC Lib;
3. 1/3 respondents actually BC Con voters;

These respondents don't even know just 10 BC Cons/87 ridings are on ballot.

Based upon other data points as well, have stated all along that this 2017 election is akin to a pre-1972 election... more particularly a 1969 election redux in terms of popular vote share (with names of parties changed today):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_1969

With such a strong vote split between the greens and the NDP, I can see the BC Liberals winning as much as 60 seats.

I won't put my partisan spin here because we all know I want the NDP to win, but it is what it is anyway and it's not going to happen so instead of letting myself get disappointed or upset, I will just accept our losses this time and perhaps in 2021 we will have a better shot at it.

This election was never going to be an NDP election, it was going to be a Green election and everyone knew it.

edit: Do you have a link to the innovative research poll? A google search is bringing up nothing.

[Metro-One]

As long as the BC Conservatives never get a strong holding I will be happy, they are the one party that socially leans pretty far right, and I never want that to be a major part of politics in BC.

The NDP would maybe have my vote if they distanced themselves a little more from identity politics and supported road expansion alongside with their transit expansion. I really don't want the GMB project and other road projects to be cancelled, especially at the stages they are in. If they said something like, "we will continue with the project but reduce the bridge to 8 lanes and expand the rapid bus component to King George" I would be happy with that.

Oh well, just me feelings.