DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[The Dirt]

What's going on at 17 Ave and Lafayette?

[rds70]

TakeFive: What is this about? This information is 7 years old and the project has changed significantly.

Quote:
Denver Cityscape has learned that a new mixed-use project is in the early planning stages for half a block in downtown Denver. The project, proposed on existing surface parking lots along Curtis Street between 17th and 18th, is currently programmed to include a 22 story office building fronting on 17th Street and a 30 story hotel/condominium tower on 18th Street. The two buildings would be connected by a 7 story parking structure. Ground floor retail is proposed along all three street frontages. Additional information should be available in the spring of 2008, if the project moves forward.
Originally Posted by denver-cityscape.com 12/4/07
(Credits to SnyderBock 12/08/2007)

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by Curtis Park

This isn't really about infill, but sort of, in my case. I want to build an ADU over my garage. I'm looking for a simple online tool that can help me with the layout. I just need to be able to get general measurements so I have a place to start once I hire a professional. Any tips or suggestions?

I don't know about anything browser-based, but that sounds like something that could be pretty easily done in sketchup. I believe it is still a free download.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by seventwenty

The Metro Areas Where Rent Is Rising Fastest



Original source.

More info on the Zillow Rent Index

I would take any figures from Zillow with a grain of salt. Zillow is the 800lb gorilla who is awesome at marketing their mammoth search site, so much so that it is top of mind for consumers.

Zillow and their zestimates are often highly inaccurate and inconsistent as it relates to for sale real estate.

Are they polling landlords after they lease a property? Unlike for sale properties, where every transaction is recorded and there is a public record, no such thing exists for rentals. All they can see is asking price, and their site usually is really behind in updating.

With that being said, rents are up big time, no doubt about it. Just be careful with any figures that come from Zillow or Trulia.

Could we say that even though rents are way up, Denver is still a bargain compared to some of those coastal cities? Could it be that Denver was downright cheap for a long time and now it has normalized?

[rds70]

In other downtown news:

It looks like the Pavilions will be getting another new-to-market retailer. The Japanese UNIQLO chain is looking at the old Wolfgang Puck space.

Additionally, CBRE recently published a 2015 outlook report for the Denver area. Regarding proposed office space, they list a pretty specific square footage for new office space on block 162 - 815,032 square feet. If the office portion takes half the block, and parking is provided above grade, then it could be a 42-47 story building (based on the 1144 15th Street model). If it is one building - office/hotel - with 1.35 million square feet of space (per the report), then it could actually be a new tallest?

[enjo13]

Originally Posted by Curtis Park

This isn't really about infill, but sort of, in my case. I want to build an ADU over my garage. I'm looking for a simple online tool that can help me with the layout. I just need to be able to get general measurements so I have a place to start once I hire a professional. Any tips or suggestions?

Google Sketchup is perfect for this sort of thing.

[EngiNerd]

Originally Posted by Curtis Park

This isn't really about infill, but sort of, in my case. I want to build an ADU over my garage. I'm looking for a simple online tool that can help me with the layout. I just need to be able to get general measurements so I have a place to start once I hire a professional. Any tips or suggestions?

http://planner.roomsketcher.com/#

[seventwenty]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

I would take any figures from Zillow with a grain of salt. Zillow is the 800lb gorilla who is awesome at marketing their mammoth search site, so much so that it is top of mind for consumers.

Zillow and their zestimates are often highly inaccurate and inconsistent as it relates to for sale real estate.

Are they polling landlords after they lease a property? Unlike for sale properties, where every transaction is recorded and there is a public record, no such thing exists for rentals. All they can see is asking price, and their site usually is really behind in updating.

With that being said, rents are up big time, no doubt about it. Just be careful with any figures that come from Zillow or Trulia.

Could we say that even though rents are way up, Denver is still a bargain compared to some of those coastal cities? Could it be that Denver was downright cheap for a long time and now it has normalized?

Probably. A median monthly rent of $1,800 seems laughably high for Denver.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

(Credits to SnyderBock 12/08/2007)

Why on God's green earth are you resurrecting a post from seven years ago?

[DownhomeDenver]

Originally Posted by rds70

In other downtown news:

It looks like the Pavilions will be getting another new-to-market retailer. The Japanese UNIQLO chain is looking at the old Wolfgang Puck space.

Additionally, CBRE recently published a 2015 outlook report for the Denver area. Regarding proposed office space, they list a pretty specific square footage for new office space on block 162 - 815,032 square feet. If the office portion takes half the block, and parking is provided above grade, then it could be a 42-47 story building (based on the 1144 15th Street model). If it is one building - office/hotel - with 1.35 million square feet of space (per the report), then it could actually be a new tallest?

RDS, I will believe this when I see it. I have lost all faith that block 162 will ever be developed in my lifetime. However, the info you've provided is helpful.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
(Credits to SnyderBock 12/08/2007)
Why on God's green earth are you resurrecting a post from seven years ago?

The heat in Arizona must be messing with his brain or something.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by rds70

In other downtown news:

It looks like the Pavilions will be getting another new-to-market retailer. The Japanese UNIQLO chain is looking at the old Wolfgang Puck space.

Additionally, CBRE recently published a 2015 outlook report for the Denver area. Regarding proposed office space, they list a pretty specific square footage for new office space on block 162 - 815,032 square feet. If the office portion takes half the block, and parking is provided above grade, then it could be a 42-47 story building (based on the 1144 15th Street model). If it is one building - office/hotel - with 1.35 million square feet of space (per the report), then it could actually be a new tallest?

I love UNIQLO and this would be a big deal for downtown. It's hip and the mall really isn't. I expect to see a lot more of this...

[blm3034L!fe]

Originally Posted by rds70

In other downtown news:

It looks like the Pavilions will be getting another new-to-market retailer. The Japanese UNIQLO chain is looking at the old Wolfgang Puck space.

Additionally, CBRE recently published a 2015 outlook report for the Denver area. Regarding proposed office space, they list a pretty specific square footage for new office space on block 162 - 815,032 square feet. If the office portion takes half the block, and parking is provided above grade, then it could be a 42-47 story building (based on the 1144 15th Street model). If it is one building - office/hotel - with 1.35 million square feet of space (per the report), then it could actually be a new tallest?

How would a 47 story tower end up being a new tallest? 1.35 Million Sq ft would well surpass 47 floors unless we're talking about a very broad 47 stories? But even then you would expect 1.35 Million Sq ft to be placed in a tower more along the lines of a 75/80 story tower!

Either way Hines has yet to kick off construction on their 42 story tower, I highly doubt Denver will gain a new tallest until after 2020. And I'm usually the optimistic one!

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by seventwenty

Probably. A median monthly rent of $1,800 seems laughably high for Denver.

Just a guess as I can't really know.

How many of you pay retail for anything? At least for the great majority of humanity nobody pays "sticker;" everything is marked off to some degree. I'll assume that the advertised or internet price is the sticker price.

Likely when prospective tenants stop by they are offered one special or another, a move-in or "Look and Lease" special for example. Perhaps for a few who are transferring in with a good job they may want to secure their living space ahead of time, sight unseen and may pay retail.

My sense is that landlord strategies whether leasing an apartment or a full floor of office space is to maintain "high" street or retail asking rates and then make it easy and tempting for tenants to make a decision through various discounts upfront. Nothing radical here but it all has become more sophisticated or software driven just like the internet in general where prices can change constantly.

I still sense that the market has peaked or is peaking. Some projects are starting to show some wear and tear already. Hard to predict accurately the future but one question is how much will Cherry Creek inventory compete with downtown inventory? How much will Lower Highlands compete as it continues to become an attractive alternative?

The good news is that the market appears to remain strong enough that the pipeline should remain active, at least for awhile.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Why on God's green earth are you resurrecting a post from seven years ago?

Just a fun blast from the past. Think about how much has changed over the last seven years? How much have you or your life changed over that period?

But Trango Tower and the 1976 Olympics could still happen, no?

Originally Posted by DownhomeDenver

RDS, I will believe this when I see it. I have lost all faith that block 162 will ever be developed in my lifetime. However, the info you've provided is helpful.

The heat in Arizona must be messing with his brain or something.

Yeah, I'm just hoping that we get 1144 15th St out of the ground. Between that, 1401 Lawrence, hopefully Z Block and Union Station that may be it for a couple of years, at least for large projects.

No overheating issues as yet but wait for my summertime posts. At my age delusions become even more probable.

[seventwenty]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Just a guess as I can't really know.

How many of you pay retail for anything? At least for the great majority of humanity nobody pays "sticker;" everything is marked off to some degree. I'll assume that the advertised or internet price is the sticker price.

Likely when prospective tenants stop by they are offered one special or another, a move-in or "Look and Lease" special for example. Perhaps for a few who are transferring in with a good job they may want to secure their living space ahead of time, sight unseen and may pay retail.

My sense is that landlord strategies whether leasing an apartment or a full floor of office space is to maintain "high" street or retail asking rates and then make it easy and tempting for tenants to make a decision through various discounts upfront. Nothing radical here but it all has become more sophisticated or software driven just like the internet in general where prices can change constantly.

I still sense that the market has peaked or is peaking. Some projects are starting to show some wear and tear already. Hard to predict accurately the future but one question is how much will Cherry Creek inventory compete with downtown inventory? How much will Lower Highlands compete as it continues to become an attractive alternative?

The good news is that the market appears to remain strong enough that the pipeline should remain active, at least for awhile.

Zillow's quote also the highest rate I've seen for Denver rent, and it would be a massive jump from 2014. I think their quote is down to their methodology of including everything for rent. Renting a 4 bedroom house in Denver's going to cost a pretty penny–– several are listed between $3,000 and $4,000–– but break it down by bedroom and the rent's no where near that price. Zillow, from my understanding would list the full house price and not the bedroom price.

Here's another rent metric that places rental rates for 1 & 2 bedroom apartments closer to $1,300, which includes a near doubling of 1 br rent since 2009.

[TakeFive]

Just to set the record straight
and because you've been dying to know:

"Construction Materials Prices Plummet in First Month of 2015"
02/25/2015 - ENR Mountain States

Construction input prices dipped 2% in January and have now failed to rise for six consecutive months, according to the Feb. 18 producer price index (PPI) release from the U.S. Dept. of Labor. On a year-over-year basis, construction input prices are down 3.6%. In addition, nonresidential construction input prices fell 2.1% on a monthly basis and 4.6% on a yearly basis.

So there's an upside to the downside in crude oil prices then?

“The decline in oil and petroleum prices finally showed up in the PPI data,” said Associated Builders and Contractors Chief Economist Anirban Basu

But it's not only crude oil prices is it?

...but other input categories also experienced downward pressure, including nonferrous wire and cable and softwood lumber.

“There are reasons to believe that prices will continue to be suppressed by a host of factors, including a strong U.S. dollar, the lack of supply response to the significant price declines and ongoing weakness in Europe, which is translating into low interest rates throughout the advanced world,” said Basu.

So this should be good for developers and the pipeline, right?

“In general, falling input prices are good for contractors since they tend to bolster margins, increase the likelihood that certain construction projects will move forward and allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its accommodative monetary stance.

Let's Go Denver
and if you're having a leisurely day, try this one.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by seventwenty

Zillow's quote also the highest rate I've seen for Denver rent, and it would be a massive jump from 2014. I think their quote is down to their methodology of including everything for rent. Renting a 4 bedroom house in Denver's going to cost a pretty penny–– several are listed between $3,000 and $4,000–– but break it down by bedroom and the rent's no where near that price. Zillow, from my understanding would list the full house price and not the bedroom price.

Here's another rent metric that places rental rates for 1 & 2 bedroom apartments closer to $1,300, which includes a near doubling of 1 br rent since 2009.

All very good points
"Rent Jungle"... haha, I like it.

Also consider my post immediately above. Increases the likelihood of more construction/supply and over-building down the road.

But as RyanD has stated, these landlords are cutting a fat hog and have plenty of air to still do Okay. So long as the local economy stays relatively healthy some over-supply would be good for the market and not that a big deal for developers either.

[BG918]

Yeah, I'm just hoping that we get 1144 15th St out of the ground. Between that, 1401 Lawrence, hopefully Z Block and Union Station that may be it for a couple of years, at least for large projects.

Z Block has started, there is fencing up around the site and they've been doing utility relocations ahead of demolition. There are already permits in place for 1144 15th and everything I've heard is that it's still starting this May.

The list of large 10+ story projects downtown either recently started or starting soon: (1) 1144 15th - 41 stories, (2) Confluence - 34 stories, (3) Skyhouse - 26 stories, (4) 1401 Lawrence - 22 stories, (5) Le Meridien/AC Hotel - 21 stories, and (6) 17W - 13 stories.

**EDIT - (7) add the recently-started 12 story Alexan Uptown apartments to the list above.

The list of proposed but not necessarily "real" projects includes 999 17th - 28 story apartment tower and 9 story office tower; Tabor II - 31 story office tower, Block 162 - 30 story hotel and 30 story office tower, Four Seasons 2 - 32 story apartment tower, The Coloradan condo tower at Union Station - 19 stories, Hilton Garden Inn at Union Station - 12 stories and 16Chestnut - 18 stories.

That's just the tall stuff, lots of smaller infill projects underway with more planned though we are definitely seeing less apartments proposed than just a couple years ago. Waiting for the condo boom to begin...

[DenverPoke]

Originally Posted by BG918

Z Block has started, there is fencing up around the site and they've been doing utility relocations ahead of demolition. There are already permits in place for 1144 15th and everything I've heard is that it's still starting this May.

The list of large 10+ story projects downtown either recently started or starting soon: (1) 1144 15th - 41 stories, (2) Confluence - 34 stories, (3) Skyhouse - 26 stories, (4) 1401 Lawrence - 22 stories, (5) Le Meridien/AC Hotel - 21 stories, and (6) 17W - 13 stories.

The list of proposed but not necessarily "real" projects includes 999 17th - 28 story apartment tower and 9 story office tower; Tabor II - 31 story office tower, Block 162 - 30 story hotel and 30 story office tower, Four Seasons 2 - 32 story apartment tower, The Coloradan condo tower at Union Station - 19 stories, Hilton Garden Inn at Union Station - 12 stories and 16Chestnut - 18 stories.

That's just the tall stuff, lots of smaller infill projects underway with more planned though we are definitely seeing less apartments proposed than just a couple years ago. Waiting for the condo boom to begin...

Let's hope for a condo boom!

Interestingly it doesn't seem like a hotel in Union Station (other than The Crawford) is going to be open when the train to DIA commences service. I wonder when the Kimpton and Union Tower West will begin construction?

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by BG918

Z Block has started, there is fencing up around the site and they've been doing utility relocations ahead of demolition. There are already permits in place for 1144 15th and everything I've heard is that it's still starting this May.

The list of large 10+ story projects downtown either recently started or starting soon: (1) 1144 15th - 41 stories, (2) Confluence - 34 stories, (3) Skyhouse - 26 stories, (4) 1401 Lawrence - 22 stories, (5) Le Meridien/AC Hotel - 21 stories, and (6) 17W - 13 stories.

The list of proposed but not necessarily "real" projects includes 999 17th - 28 story apartment tower and 9 story office tower; Tabor II - 31 story office tower, Block 162 - 30 story hotel and 30 story office tower, Four Seasons 2 - 32 story apartment tower, The Coloradan condo tower at Union Station - 19 stories, Hilton Garden Inn at Union Station - 12 stories and 16Chestnut - 18 stories.

That's just the tall stuff, lots of smaller infill projects underway with more planned though we are definitely seeing less apartments proposed than just a couple years ago. Waiting for the condo boom to begin...

Thanks for the great rundown.

When I see excavation for foundations and/or below grade parking is when I go for the gifs. Keep me posted.