Decision 2010: Calgary Municipal Election

[Ferreth]

Originally Posted by freeweed

I hope people here aren't coming across as bashing anyone (beyond some good-natured ribbing on specific issues). I certainly am not - what I am trying to communicate is the utter lack of anyone actually explaining her policies, discussing why she'd be a good candidate, etc. I've heard a lot of people explain McIver, I've heard a lot of people explain Nenshi (here more than anywhere else), but it just seems like no one actually knows what Higgins stands for - that I know, anyway.

The McIver vote I get. The Nenshi vote I mostly get. The Higgins vote? So far all I've heard in her favour is that she's "recognizable". Oh, and today someone told me he'd vote for her because his cousin suggested it.

Maybe a Higgins supporter could share?

I'm not a Higgins supporter, but I have a theory about where some of her support is coming from. Remember Ralph Klein's background - he worked in the media and that turned out quite well from what most people remember at any rate. Sad to say, for those people who don't think about these things on a deep level, such a shallow association can make a difference.

Oh, and as far as the racist population taking away from the Nenshi vote, I'd bet on ~20% that will not vote for him based on his ethnicity and/or religion. Half of those won't admit it either. I'm hoping the idjits on the the other side of the color/religion fence that will vote for him based on his ethnicity/religion will cancel that out to some extent. Actually, upon thinking about it a bit, I'd qualify that 20% a bit and say that for 20% of the population, religion / ethnicity will have a strong influence on their vote. Now I am depressed.

I was reading somewhere on the Herald today some speculation that some people will not vote for Nenshi because he comes off too high-brow professor like. THAT made my blood boil - having "common sense" to run the city is A-OK, but having someone with an above average intelligence is not.

[fusili]

My biggest problem with Higgins was her comment that she wasn't there to micromanage, but to let administration do its work. For everyone who has worked with the city, this is a bad idea. Granted, there are a lot of very talented people at the city, no question about that- but on the whole city administration is extremely bureaucratic, overly regressive and sometimes just plain obstructionist. There are very few incentives in the city for people to do a good job. Performance measures are almost non-existent. IMHO, there needs to be a massive overhaul of how business is done at the city.

[Rusty van Reddick]

Higgins has a huge level of support in the gay community. She's advertised (pricey colour ads) in Gay Calgary mag and had a fabulous entourage at the pride parade. Given what we had with Duerr (refused to declare pride week because it was a "divisive" issue) and Bronco's being a no-show at pride despite declaring pride (month no less) and he stated publically his opposition to same sex marriage, Barb's efforts and their impact on much of the gay community in Calgary are understandable. And I do think that's enough reason to support her- nobody has to justify their vote but there's one justification.

Naheed is COMPLETELY supportive of the GLBTQ community as well, marched at Pride (I marched with him as did my partner) and he has gay folks at the very top of his campaign team, but as I say, Barb has her fans too and for what it's worth she's worked to gain them.

I would not be unhappy if Barb was elected. I honestly would not. I'd be ecstatic if Naheed were and I did vote for him (and Zak for my alderman), but the very idea that at Pride 2011 we'd have the mayor as grand marshall, at long last, is a gift that you cannot comprehend if you're not gay.

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by fusili

My biggest problem with Higgins was her comment that she wasn't there to micromanage, but to let administration do its work. For everyone who has worked with the city, this is a bad idea. Granted, there are a lot of very talented people at the city, no question about that- but on the whole city administration is extremely bureaucratic, overly regressive and sometimes just plain obstructionist. There are very few incentives in the city for people to do a good job. Performance measures are almost non-existent. IMHO, there needs to be a massive overhaul of how business is done at the city.

Barb Higgins has planned to roll out a bonus incentive for managers that find more cost-effective ways of doing business, she has also been in support of secondary suites as well.

Overall, I like the direction that city administration together with 18,000 participants has set with Plan It, and I think there is due support in that area.

Naheed is my second choice, and even Ric has impressed me during the campaign. Ric is the most lacking in policies with respect to things that are important to me. If there is a vote I can't understand, it's the vote for Joe Connelly.

[Ramsayfarian]

Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick

I would not be unhappy if Barb was elected. I honestly would not. I'd be ecstatic if Naheed were and I did vote for him (and Zak for my alderman), but the very idea that at Pride 2011 we'd have the mayor as grand marshall, at long last, is a gift that you cannot comprehend if you're not gay.

Well that's one task she'll be good at. Other than that, I can't see her being a very good mayor. Her ideas are kind of gee-golly.

The one solid idea she's had was to ease restrictions so artists can live in industrial areas.


I think Nenshi is going to win this. It's going to be close but he's going to win.

[RicoLance21]

Originally Posted by fusili

Voted today in advance poll. Should be obvious my mayoral choice. Alderman I will leave a secret. Spoiled my school board vote. I didn't know enough about the candidates and honestly, I didn't want my vote skewing things.

I did just that early this afternoon. It was pretty much word-for-word of what you described.

[Boris2k7]

My biggest challenge right now in this election is avoiding the cesspool that is the Herald comments section. *shudder*

If I see one more McIver supporter claim that Nenshi is arrogant and inexperienced, then I'm going to have to go and deliver some swift Internet justice. Ditto for commenters that are all goo-goo-gaga over Higgins but can't name a single policy she stands for.

[Ferreth]

Originally Posted by Boris2k7

My biggest challenge right now in this election is avoiding the cesspool that is the Herald comments section. *shudder*

I have been on occasion surprised in Herald comments on the support for Nenshi. For example, he scored some pretty big points in that crowd questioning the value for dollar for Police services.

[Ramsayfarian]

Originally Posted by Ferreth

I have been on occasion surprised in Herald comments on the support for Nenshi. For example, he scored some pretty big points in that crowd questioning the value for dollar for Police services.

Same thing with comments in The Sun. Mind you Team Nenshi is a little more savvy with the interweb.

[freeweed]

Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick

Higgins has a huge level of support in the gay community. She's advertised (pricey colour ads) in Gay Calgary mag and had a fabulous entourage at the pride parade. Given what we had with Duerr (refused to declare pride week because it was a "divisive" issue) and Bronco's being a no-show at pride despite declaring pride (month no less) and he stated publically his opposition to same sex marriage, Barb's efforts and their impact on much of the gay community in Calgary are understandable. And I do think that's enough reason to support her- nobody has to justify their vote but there's one justification.

Interesting. Normally I'd call that a bit of a shallow reason to vote, but considering what's gone on in this city, you make a good case. I had no idea our recent mayors were so ... I dunno, backwards?

Like you said, no one needs to justify their vote but I can understand this one a little, even if only theoretically.

Higgins is pro-gay (supportive of... whatever), Nenshi is "one of dem brown people" - does that mean McIver gets the default redneck vote?

[Radley77]

A Higgins vote for me is a vote that the vast majority of what was done under the previous administration and city council was right. West LRT is the most important piece of infrastructure. I say this as an exploitation engineer who is concerned about our future energy supplies today and 10 years from now. People should be worried that oil and gas companies are spending billions of dollars every year and oil and gas production is declining despite our and mine best efforts to increase it. We need to be using the relatively cheap energy of today to build the energy efficient transportation network of the future. There needs to be a Calgary with walkable communities and is efficient at moving people between major activity nodes.

Barb and Nenshi both get this with there support of Plan It, mixed use communities and have better ideas to either continue or expand the transit network. Ric doesn't get this and some of his ideas I find unworkable with how he thinks that major activity nodes suddenly appear rather than what I have observed as a slow expansion of these clusters as businesses have an organic way of growing (expand one department\centralize intellectual nodes).

Barb understands the social content of this city and is not afraid to look at what is the worst about the city, instead of Nenshi's approach to focus on the best things. Barb focuses on crime, safety and addictions versus Nenshi's focus on arts and culture. To me, this is a matter of taste. I see people who are addicted on the streets on a daily basis and the struggles they deal with homelessness on a daily basis. I understand Nenshi did say he would maintain police officers per capita, and agree with his ideas on the issue and that one should aim to reduce costs, but his approach to this issue was horribly wrong for anyone who sincerely cares about crime and safety (late with his policy ideas on this, and no consultation with the experts on crime and safety, plus a stat that is meaningless with respect to understanding the full context). A different approach on this issue, and I probably never would have left the Nenshi Team.

This is first and foremost about building Canada's most sustainable economy.

Secondly, it's about doing so in a manner that is boldly respectful for the wide diversity of the Calgarians interests. Ms. Higgins has lead by example, and instead of just talking about embracing diversity, she has become it as outlined by her broad event schedule. She has attended everything from church events to Sudanese community to Indiafest, to community halls and everything in between. http://barbhiggins.ca/events/archive.html

I view Higgins as a bold continuation of the economic and socially progressive thrust that I think makes Calgary the best place to live in Canada.

Anyways, just one Higgins supporters perspective...

[DizzyEdge]

For anyone planning to vote Nenshi but hasn't yet (or those unsure but need a little push), a bunch of us are meeting tomorrow at Palomino between about 4 - 5:15 and then we're going to head to the advance polls at City Hall and vote.

[DizzyEdge]

Can someone confirm if the rumour that Barb hasn't been to a council meeting in 9 years is actually fact or is just hearsay?

[freeweed]

Originally Posted by Radley77

A Higgins vote for me is a vote that the vast majority of what was done under the previous administration and city council was right.

Thanks for that Radley. I actually agree in large part with this one summation - I really don't see just what recent councils have done that's so heinous. Sure, I don't agree with every little decision, but for the most part this city just keeps getting better in my eyes.

[Doug_Cgy]

For the most part Rusty and Radley explained my reasons for supporting Higgins to a "t".

She is a HUGE supporter of arts and culture. As someone who volunteers on the Pride board it amazed me to see the support she, Nenshi and Kent Hehr showed to us. Not only did she march in the parade, she and Kent Hehr both came to our dance. Barb showed her support and genuinely had fun. It was truly refreshing. She cares about Calgary and with her, what you see is what you get.

I appreciate that she has a plan to address our budget shortfalls within a week of being elected. I support her views on growing up, not out, but also want to work with and rebuild the relationship with the regional partnership. She has addressed that she believes some areas of the city have been exhausted by infrastructure, while others have been neglected. I couldn't agree more. I could list more, but truly is mostly arts, culture and her way of being active in the community is what sold me.

Hope that helps to explain my case.

[mersar]

Herald has a new poll by Leger Marketing this morning. Numbers are Nenshi and Higgins at 30%, McIver at 33%. So a dead heat (sample size of 500 gives a 4.4% margin of error)

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by mersar

Herald has a new poll by Leger Marketing this morning. Numbers are Nenshi and Higgins at 30%, McIver at 33%. So a dead heat (sample size of 500 gives a 4.4% margin of error)

Boom!

[Riise]

Excellent.

[Robert in Calgary]

Mo-Men-Tum!

Only one candidate has it.

As the old tuna commercial would say......Sorry Barb.

[ginsberg]

Dead heat in race for Calgary's mayor

University prof shows momentum in latest poll

CALGARY - Ric McIver is stumbling, Barb Higgins is steady, Naheed Nenshi is soaring -- and Calgary's race for mayor is now a three-way dead heat, a new Herald-CTV News poll shows.

For much of the campaign, election watchers have framed the race as a tense duel between the southeast alderman and the former TV anchor.

Lingering in the background was Nenshi, the Mount Royal University business professor whose public-opinion support was at just eight per cent three weeks ago.

Nenshi has now rocketed to 30 per cent, tied with Higgins and just behind Ric McIver's 33 per cent support, according to a Leger Marketing survey of 500 Calgarians conducted between Oct. 6 and 11.

The pollster reported a healthy lead for McIver in mid-September, who's now in a statistical tie with his two rivals, given the survey's margin

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of error.

"I don't think McIver slipped -- he just didn't go anywhere," said Lisa Young, political science professor at University of Calgary. "He had kind of maxed out his support. It's that both Higgins and Nenshi had huge potential to grow, and they've done that."

Pollster Ian Large of Leger noted Higgins' support didn't really shift that much -- she had 28 per cent support to McIver's 43 in the last Herald survey -- compared with Nenshi's sharp rise.

"The win-lose-or-draw is next week, but the real star in this is Naheed Nenshi, for sure," Large said.

Although Nenshi boasts the greatest momentum, when the poll includes people leaning toward a particular candidate he's at 28 per cent, slightly behind Higgins (31) and McIver (33).

The number of undecided voters -- ones not decided or leaning -- sits at 21 per cent.

Behind the top three, none of the other candidates polled above two per cent. Bob Hawkesworth, who's represented northwest Calgary for 30 years as MLA and alderman, conceded Tuesday he has no chance of winning.

Nenshi had for months been a middle-tier candidate in the crowded field of politicians and outsiders vying to replace three-term Mayor Dave Bronconnier.

Observers and rivals almost universally viewed the self-branded "common sense conservative" McIver as the one to beat ever since Bronconnier announced his retirement in February. And until now the only challenger seeming to pose a true threat was Higgins, given her name recognition after 21 years anchoring CTV's supper-hour newscast.

Her campaign struggled through September before she switched campaign managers, then seemed to pick up momentum as she started rapping McIver about his reputation as a perennial "Dr. No" critic and a divisive council member.

But Nenshi took a big grass-roots gamble, trying to build support through social-media sites Twitter and Facebook, as well as smaller individual donations than his better-connected opponents.

"To the extent there is an anybody-but-McIver movement afoot, Nenshi can claim quite credibly to be the anybody-but-McIver candidate," Young said.

"Whereas when it looked like a two-person race, there was a real risk that Nenshi support would disappear in favour of Barb Higgins, because she was the one who could beat McIver."

McIver is also the only candidate with negative momentum -- 16 per cent of respondents said their impression of him has worsened during the campaign, while 15 per cent say it's improved.

Nenshi boasts the strongest momentum, with a better impression among 32 per cent of voters and a worse one among only five per cent.

The impression of Higgins has improved for 25 per cent of those polled and worsened for 15 per cent.

She is leading among people with no post-secondary education, while Nenshi grabbed the most respondents with university degrees.

Although the women's vote was long seen to be a potential wellspring of support for Higgins, the survey shows little difference along the gender divide -- except that more women than men are still undecided.

Nenshi's online strength translates to a solid 43 per cent backing among Calgarians aged 18 to 34. But that demographic is least likely to vote, meaning that getting out the vote for his campaign will prove vital in a race that's far too close to call, Young said.

The live-operator telephone poll is considered accurate within 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

[email protected]


Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Dead+heat+race+Calgary+mayor/3661907/story.html#ixzz12F7oisQt