Decision 2010: Calgary Municipal Election - Page 94

LFRENCH · #**1861** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 2:58 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by devonb

That latest poll put Nenshi at 21%

Yeah there were saying his support could really be much closer to that of the other too if you were able to account for support by individuals who do not have a stationary phone. That is something I never even thought of untill he mentioned it

DizzyEdge · #**1862** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 3:11 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LFRENCH

The person they interviewed on the news, some MRU professor mentioned that nenshi support is underestimated as a large majority of his support is from the youth vote. This youth vote doesn't utilize lan lines and the poll never called cellular phones. Interesting point, but who knows if this is the case

Is there anyone on here really in the know about how these phone polls work? I've heard the same thing, that they are randomly picked from a phone list, but have also heard that is incorrect and they call randomly generated numbers, even though many might not be valid phone numbers.

Radley77 · #**1863** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 3:11 AM**

A bit more detailed poll results available here:

http://www.globaltvcalgary.com/documents/OCT11PollPT2.pdf

DizzyEdge · #**1864** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 3:34 AM**

One interesting point:

"The gap between Higgins (36%) and McIver (32%) widens to four-points among those who are “absolutely certain” to vote on Election Day, while Nenshi (25%) closes the gap to both frontrunners."

freeweed · #**1865** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 3:36 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by LFRENCH

The person they interviewed on the news, some MRU professor mentioned that nenshi support is underestimated as a large majority of his support is from the youth vote. This youth vote doesn't utilize lan lines and the poll never called cellular phones. Interesting point, but who knows if this is the case

Youth are also just about always the lowest turnout, proportionally. It's great that Nenshi has the ear of young Calgarians, but if so few vote, it won't mean squat.

I'm starting to get a bit worried, personally. I've heard more than one Nenshi supporter say words to this effect:

"If polls show Nenshi can't win, I'm voting McIver so that Higgins doesn't win"

Fuck strategic voting. It's what's broken the US "democracy", and it's going to ruin this election if enough people think that way. Nenshi could easily win if polls are in fact out of touch, but he stands no chance if people start voting for the lesser of 2 evils.

You know the saying "if you don't vote, you can't complain"? I think we need to start another: "if you don't vote for your preferred candidate, you can't complain".

Ramsayfarian · #**1866** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 3:41 AM**

I wonder how many times Nenshi was discussed over turkey dinner this weekend?

bob1954 · #**1867** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 3:48 AM**

The further Dr. No drops in these polls, the better it helps Nenshi more than Higgins!

Ferreth · #**1868** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 3:51 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by freeweed

Youth are also just about always the lowest turnout, proportionally. It's great that Nenshi has the ear of young Calgarians, but if so few vote, it won't mean squat.

I'm starting to get a bit worried, personally. I've heard more than one Nenshi supporter say words to this effect:

"If polls show Nenshi can't win, I'm voting McIver so that Higgins doesn't win"

Fuck strategic voting. It's what's broken the US "democracy", and it's going to ruin this election if enough people think that way. Nenshi could easily win if polls are in fact out of touch, but he stands no chance if people start voting for the lesser of 2 evils.

You know the saying "if you don't vote, you can't complain"? I think we need to start another: "if you don't vote for your preferred candidate, you can't complain".

Strategic voting almost cost us this country - remember the Quebec referendum.

As far as I'm concerned, based on statistics and the inherent flaws in the polling process, I conclude that we are in a dead heat between three candidates at this moment in time, as far as we can tell.

The next week will be most interesting indeed.

freeweed · #**1869** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 4:00 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ferreth

As far as I'm concerned, based on statistics and the inherent flaws in the polling process, I conclude that we are in a dead heat between three candidates at this moment in time, as far as we can tell.

Obviously I have nothing but anecdotes, but I have to agree. Well, except that I've only heard of a single person who plans on voting for Higgins (seriously, who IS her demographic anyway??). If anything, I know more people voting for Nenshi which is the opposite of what I'd have expected 2 months ago. I'm no longer in the "youth" demographic like a lot of y'all are, and most of the people I work with are Boomers. Long time Calgarian conservative Boomers, at that. People who I figured would vote for Dr. No in a heartbeat. Yet most of them are supporting Nenshi.

I figured this election was a lock for McIver, with Higgins providing some sideshow. I guess Calgarians really aren't that impressed with him, considering he can barely compete against someone with a) no experience and b) no platform. In a way, I wonder if her presence is what might hand Nenshi the election?

I can't remember the last time a civic election actually held my interest like this. I'm actually planning on watching the returns on TV Monday night (do they do that here?).

floobie · #**1870** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 4:13 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by freeweed

Fuck strategic voting. It's what's broken the US "democracy", and it's going to ruin this election if enough people think that way. Nenshi could easily win if polls are in fact out of touch, but he stands no chance if people start voting for the lesser of 2 evils.

You know the saying "if you don't vote, you can't complain"? I think we need to start another: "if you don't vote for your preferred candidate, you can't complain".

I don't want to derail this thread, but I couldn't agree more with this. I'm extremely sick of the whole "if you didn't vote, you can't complain" attitude. I'll vote if I legitimately like a candidate (like Nenshi, in this case). If there are no candidates I like, I won't vote at all.

I have my principles. I refuse to support someone I think is a disgusting weasel. And I certainly won't vote for a disgusting weasel just to keep an even more disgusting weasel from winning. Playing all those reality TV show-esque voting games just undermines the whole point of an election, as far as I'm concerned. Voting for who you truly believe in holds politicians to a higher standard. Voting for someone just because they're more likely to win and you don't want another guy to win pretty much ensures that you'll have elected another mediocre, run of the mill politician who won't change a damn thing. In my mind, by voting for someone I don't like, I'm giving them the go ahead to piss all over me. I'd rather not vote at all.

Robert in Calgary · #**1871** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 4:15 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by freeweed

Obviously I have nothing but anecdotes, but I have to agree. Well, except that I've only heard of a single person who plans on voting for Higgins (seriously, who IS her demographic anyway??). If anything, I know more people voting for Nenshi which is the opposite of what I'd have expected 2 months ago. I'm no longer in the "youth" demographic like a lot of y'all are.......

I agree as well. Where are all these Higgins supporters. The only time I hear Higgins mentioned, it's not a supportive comment.

Nenshi has now added 1,165 folks on FB in the time barb has added 83.

I hope this does translate to the voting booth.

suburb · #**1872** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 4:15 AM**

retracted - point was already made by someone else above.

mersar · #**1873** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 4:42 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by freeweed

Obviously I have nothing but anecdotes, but I have to agree. Well, except that I've only heard of a single person who plans on voting for Higgins (seriously, who IS her demographic anyway??).

Someone mentioned on twitter (so take it with a grain of salt) that one of the polls (that I haven't yet looked at in detail) put Higgins strongest support in the educational demographic of "high school degree or less". If its true it wouldn't shock me either, as in that group she would be the most recognizable face of the top three.

Innersoul1 · #**1874** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 5:00 AM**

Is there going to be a televised debate?

Innersoul1 · #**1875** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 5:08 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by mersar

Someone mentioned on twitter (so take it with a grain of salt) that one of the polls (that I haven't yet looked at in detail) put Higgins strongest support in the educational demographic of "high school degree or less". If its true it wouldn't shock me either, as in that group she would be the most recognizable face of the top three.

That would be the Ipsos Reid Poll. Follow the link above. It confirms the fact. Also that Mciver has the highest amount of his support from voters in the SE

Koolfire · #**1876** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 5:10 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sir.Humphrey.Appleby

Will Hawkesworth actually file a lawsuit? (and is he doing it as a favour for future considerations from a mayoral candidate)

File a lawsuit for what? I haven't heard this yet.

freeweed · #**1877** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 5:33 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by mersar

Someone mentioned on twitter (so take it with a grain of salt) that one of the polls (that I haven't yet looked at in detail) put Higgins strongest support in the educational demographic of "high school degree or less". If its true it wouldn't shock me either, as in that group she would be the most recognizable face of the top three.

Well that explains me then. After spending 9 years in University over 2 periods of my life, and now working with people where a degree is pretty much a requirement for the past 7 years, I just don't know anyone in that demographic anymore. I wonder if that makes me a genuine snob.

Oddly enough, I recognize Nenshi from Television far more than Higgins. Mostly because I LOATHE CTV news - it's like they're trying to out-geriatric CBC with their newscasts. Global used to have Nenshi on at least once a week for various commentary; he's been on my radar for years as a result.

Surrealplaces · #**1878** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 5:35 AM**

If Nenshi doesn't win this election what do you think the chances are that he would try for an alderman position next time around?

The mayor is an important position, but keep in mind that when it comes to council votes, the mayor is only one vote, same as the alderman. If he were on council as an Alderman he would still have alot of influence.

fusili · #**1879** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 7:13 AM**

Whatever happens, I am going to be impressed with how well Nenshi did. I think many thought he would go nowhere in this campaign, and now he is a serious contender and can definitely win this thing. It gives me at least some hope for this city.

MalcolmTucker · #**1880** Posted **Oct 12, 2010, 11:24 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

Is there anyone on here really in the know about how these phone polls work? I've heard the same thing, that they are randomly picked from a phone list, but have also heard that is incorrect and they call randomly generated numbers, even though many might not be valid phone numbers.

They wouldn't want to call businesses, they pull from a list. Until the government passes a law to allow pollsters to be billed for the calls to cell phones, there aren't going to be calls to cell phones (beyond robo polls that go to everyone). Add to that skype, other less formal than Shaw Phone VoiP and you start to have a selection bias. Fortunately young people have been voting at such low rates that it hasn't changed much.