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  #1321  
Old Posted Nov 29, 2006, 7:52 AM
mechanico mechanico is offline
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"Facelift finally"
Come on, you don't like that late communist Russia goverment building look.
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  #1322  
Old Posted Nov 29, 2006, 8:25 AM
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does anyone know what sort of foundation work 500 CM will require after they dismantle the TV and the lot is clear?? are they going do dig for underground parking?
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  #1323  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 7:01 AM
brandon12 brandon12 is offline
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hmm. Not the most positive signs. I hope the project gets done, but who knows now. Maybe he was too ambitious. Maybe the market has gone too far south. Maybe the buyers just weren't there. I'll guess we'll have to wait and see. The next few weeks and months should be telling...
======================================
Towers project facing hurdles
Downtown high-rise residence far over budget; unit sales lag.
By Jon Ortiz - Bee Staff Writer
Published 12:00 am PST Thursday, November 30, 2006
Story appeared in BUSINESS section, Page D1

Print | E-Mail | Comments (6)

It's little more than a giant hole in the ground, but already the 53-story Towers hotel and condominium project is $70 million over its original $500 million budget.

Meanwhile, sales of the Towers' condos are slow, and developer John Saca has switched general contractors.

What all of that means for one of the tallest residential construction projects on the West Coast remains to be seen. Saca is in talks with his backers for more money, and his isn't the first commercial development to overshoot its budget. Contractor changes aren't as common, but Saca says that the swap brings in a more experienced high-rise mixed-use construction firm.

However, one thing is clear: Saca admits the Towers, at Third Street and Capitol Mall, is being pinched between a weak housing market and rising prices for materials such as steel and concrete.

Despite those challenges, Saca, a scrappy local developer who has already brought his project farther along than naysayers thought he would, remains optimistic.

"We're close to a deal with our backers for more money," he said Wednesday. "We're pumping along."

Saca went public two years ago with his vision for a massive twin-tower structure anchored by a luxury hotel, high-end retail and 804 condos rising 600 feet and drastically changing the Sacramento skyline. He figured it would cost about $500 million for the land and construction.

Many thought the building was too ambitious to be Sacramento's first high-rise condo project and questioned whether there were enough customers to fill all those units, priced from $368,000 to $852,000.

Saca, whose father founded the Filco home appliance chain, had a reputation as a savvy land investor and shopping center developer, but had no history with high-rise construction. Still, he gained credibility in April when the giant California Public Employees' Retirement System agreed to invest $100 million in his project.

Two months later, he signed a $375 million loan agreement with Deutsche Bank, contingent on Saca preselling 400 condos. Saca committed his own money to make up the balance.

Construction started, but as massive pile drivers over the summer banged away at the Towers' downtown Sacramento site, Saca realized the initial cost estimates fell short.

He appealed to Sacramento city officials and received an $11 million subsidy in October for the 18-story Intercontinental Hotel that will anchor one of the building's two towers. Now, he's in talks with his other financial backers for more.

"Costs are higher than when we struck our deals," Saca said. "We've had to go back, and we're close to loan closings with CalPERS and Deutsche Bank."

A CalPERS spokesman on Thursday said that the system's real estate representatives "have been in discussions with Saca about more money," but, like Saca, declined to say how much.

Calls to Deutsche Bank's New York offices were not returned.

Sacramento developer Paul Petrovich said that Saca probably will give up more or all of his ownership stake in the project for more construction cash.

"The pot at the end of the rainbow for John at this point isn't money, it's credibility with politicians, other cities and other lenders," Petrovich said.

With the Towers on his resumé, Saca could get into even bigger projects down the road, Petrovich said.

Besides funding challenges, Saca also said the condo market has gone soft with the rest of the housing market, and the Tower's sales are "slowing down." He also has a condo competitor, Craig Nassi, whose Denver-based BCN Development has plans to build the Aura tower two blocks east on Capitol Mall and Sixth Street.

Through September, buyers had made deposits on 364 units at the Towers, according to the most recent figures from Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, a Costa Mesa firm that tracks residential construction.

The slump didn't deter Bovis Lend Lease Inc. from taking over the general contracting duties from Turner Construction Co., which had overseen the project's pile driving phase. Both firms are based in New York City.

Privately-held Bovis is one of the world's largest project management and construction companies.

Bovis' Western Regional Vice President Todd Pennington said that he couldn't yet estimate when the Towers will open.

"We're developing schedules and hiring the trade contractors," Pennington said. "We'll just keep moving from where others left off and keep the progress going."
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  #1324  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 8:29 AM
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Quote:
Sacramento developer Paul Petrovich said that Saca probably will give up more or all of his ownership stake in the project for more construction cash.

"The pot at the end of the rainbow for John at this point isn't money, it's credibility with politicians, other cities and other lenders," Petrovich said.

With the Towers on his resumé, Saca could get into even bigger projects down the road, Petrovich said.
Could this be some vindication for Construction Guy???

I noticed there were more undriven piles today (35-40) than on Monday (25-30). It looks like they still have a significant amount to do.
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  #1325  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 3:56 PM
joninsac joninsac is offline
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Other than the reference to Bovis and cost overruns, which happens to 99.9% of projects like these, the article is basically a rehash of another article from a couple of months ago. Old news.
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  #1326  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 5:58 PM
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Today's SBJ

Here's what the Sacramento Business Journal had to say this morning:



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  #1327  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 6:18 PM
joninsac joninsac is offline
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Saca is close enough that Deutsche Bank is giving him the money anyway. Done deal.
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  #1328  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 6:41 PM
sugit sugit is offline
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It's amazing the differance in tones between the two article. Funny how the Jounanal has many more important details that the Bee doesn't...shocking.

I gotta say, the one from the Bee did start putting some doubt in my mind.

Brandon made a good point though last night over cocktails, Bovis wouldn't be wasting their time on this if it was dead...and like joninsac said, if Deutsche Bank is saying "good enough" that's a big nod toward the project.

Also good to hear they have enough equity to keep going while the deals are finalized.
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  #1329  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 6:46 PM
joninsac joninsac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sugit
It's amazing the differance in tones between the two article. Funny how the Jounanal has many more important details that the Bee doesn't...shocking.
No kidding. It'll be a cold day in hell when the Bee stops announcing that the sky is falling.
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  #1330  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 6:52 PM
sugit sugit is offline
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Maybe someone with some knowledge could answer this, but when can a developer or contractor start , or want to lock in prices?

It seems like Saca would have been able to, or wanted to, do that a while ago, but from the article is says only now with the new deals he can start to lock in prices. Getting those locked in I imagine would sure has hell help stop some of those cost increases. I'm sure you don't want to sign contract without final lending approval, but still.

Do suppliers generally require proof of funding before they will enter into a contract?
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  #1331  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 7:11 PM
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Yeah, as we all know, the Bee has consistently played the role of Sacramento's Debbie Downer for as long as I can remember. All of the parties involved here from CalPers to Deutche Bank to Bovis are major power players and know what they're doing. I'm not worried about this at all.
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  #1332  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 7:14 PM
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Long Live the Sacramento Bee!!!

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  #1333  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 9:10 PM
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I think the biggest Debbie Downer comment came from Saca himself, in the Business Journal article:

"It's been slow," Saca said of condo sales in November. "We're about at the same place we were. Actually we lost a few units."

Is Saca saying there were more cancellations than sales in November? That's how it sounds to me.

At the current sales pace how long will it take to sell the remaining 400+ units? If he sells 2 units a week with no cancellations it will take 4-5 more years.
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  #1334  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 9:14 PM
brandon12 brandon12 is offline
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^Phillip, your logic puzzles me.
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  #1335  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 9:15 PM
mechanico mechanico is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joninsac
Other than the reference to Bovis and cost overruns, which happens to 99.9% of projects like these, the article is basically a rehash of another article from a couple of months ago. Old news.
If such projects always have cost overuns shouldn't that have been accounted for? Why didn't Saca hedge against rising material cost?

Quote:
Sacramento developer Paul Petrovich said that Saca probably will give up more or all of his ownership stake in the project for more construction cash.

"The pot at the end of the rainbow for John at this point isn't money, it's credibility with politicians, other cities and other lenders," Petrovich said.
Saca can't raise prices to make up for additional cost. He's basically maxing out his credit. He's also talking about tapping into equity to keep the project going. This is not the best sales pitch when asking for additional funding.

The Bee did paint an ugly picture but Saca provided them with the fodder.
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  #1336  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 9:18 PM
joninsac joninsac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mechanico
If such projects always have cost overuns shouldn't that have been accounted for?
How can you account for a cost overrun if you don't know how much the overrun is going to be? You can't hedge against rising material costs if you don't know how much or how fast those costs are going to rise.

Last edited by joninsac; Dec 1, 2006 at 9:25 PM.
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  #1337  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 9:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Phillip
I think the biggest Debbie Downer comment came from Saca himself, in the Business Journal article:

"It's been slow," Saca said of condo sales in November. "We're about at the same place we were. Actually we lost a few units."

Is Saca saying there were more cancellations than sales in November? That's how it sounds to me.

At the current sales pace how long will it take to sell the remaining 400+ units? If he sells 2 units a week with no cancellations it will take 4-5 more years.
Once they are built and people can actually go through the homes and
see all the great views and perks to the Towers, I believe sales will happen
much more quickly. It takes a trailblazer to buy into something that is not
even built yet... not many people have to courage to buy into an idea
before they can actually see it. In about a year when this sucker is busting
through the skyline and people can actually see it take form, then I would
expect to see much more interest.


The Debbie Downers have returned, mechanico & Phillip

Last edited by innov8; Dec 1, 2006 at 9:27 PM.
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  #1338  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 9:29 PM
mechanico mechanico is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joninsac
How can you account for a cost overrun if you don't know how much the overrun is going to be? If Saca knew he would be $70 million over budget, don't you think he would've asked for $70 million more from his lenders originally?
You don't have to know what they will be. You hedge against material cost run ups by buying futures. I assume this is common in construction but maybe I'm wrong.
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  #1339  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 9:45 PM
joninsac joninsac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mechanico
You hedge against material cost run ups by buying futures. I assume this is common in construction but maybe I'm wrong.
I don't know if it's common or not, but I imagine material costs wouldn't being rising like they are if buying futures were common in the construction industry.
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  #1340  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2006, 9:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mechanico
You don't have to know what they will be. You hedge against material cost run ups by buying futures. I assume this is common in construction but maybe I'm wrong.
futures don't actually involve delivery of anything against which they are hedged and the few exchanges exploring hedging of steel and concrete (the things used in high rise construction) have not been that successful to date. Futures work best in large, large bets (Southwest, after all, locked in millions and millions of gallons when it began hedging against jet fuel). One project requires substantial quantities of steel or concrete but the cost of the hedge might outweigh the actual risk of the price uptick.
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