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Originally Posted by ATLtransplant
I've been reading this forum ever since the Novare building was announced. I must say I'm really disappointed in the massive amount of pessimism when it comes to the construction of some of these new buildings. Certainly there is reason for people to be cautious with all the talk of the "bubble" but rumors can easily be spread about a building being a "go" or "dead" just by someone speaking their opinion. That's one of the most frustrating things about these forums is knowing who knows what they're talking about and who's talking out of their ass.
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I don't see it that way ATLtransplant. I think this Forum tries to determine if a project is real or not. Most people here, including myself, would probably be considered high-rise "cheerleaders."
The math is easy to do for these projects: 1) Land + 2) Construction Costs + 3) Soft Costs (design, financing, broker fees, sales expenses, etc.) = Total Development Costs. Divide this amount by the total sellable SF.
Because Austin has trouble exceeding $300 PSF for high-rise condos it's very difficult to achieve development costs (less than $250 PSF) that would allow a reasonable profit.
Then, we have project announcements from groups like Spring that don't even have renderings or construction documents. They have no idea what their building will cost. Maybe it would have been better to find out that information before announcing, but this would have cost money. Nobody I know thinks their numbers can work.
As for your friends at Novare - they have done well copying their cookie-cutter "Spire" building. If they can make it fit in Austin, they may be the first to achieve prices around $325 PSF. Not sure if that's enough to make any real profit. It will probably cost Novare $180 PSF just in construction costs, so it's a tough deal. Novare has shrunk the average floorplan size and created a more apartment-style prodcut. Not suprisingly, many people in town refer to Novare's "small units." I'm certain they are referencing their small unit floorplans and not their willingness to try and make something work here.
I admire their confidence. Plus, they've done well in several cities. Hopefully, Austin is next.