YVR & Sea Island Developments Discussion II

[trofirhen]

Perhaps obliquely relevant to YVR, but if Carney can figure out a way for Canada to join Mercosur trading block: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, that might induce South America commerce - and flights.

[ninjakafi_81]

Originally Posted by nname

If they go as far as DPS, then they probably also looked at CJU and OKA. But yeah FUK and PUS are the next logical destination in Japan/Korea after all the ones listed on the map.

Maybe if CTS goes well and they got many bookings from the Japanese side, they could try more destinations with XLR? The only one I can think of is SDJ, all other airports in the area are too small.

And since AC wants to fly everywhere French from YUL, wonder if they looked at YUL-YVR-PPT. TN couldn't make it work for SEA, but maybe YVR will work with the help from YUL? But then PPT is just out of range for XLR, so they'll have to use at least a 788 for this.

And then since BKK is doing very well, maybe AC will want to try HKT too.

Then there are CAN and secondary Chinese cities, each one of them are larger than everything listed above. But since pandemic AC can barely make PEK work, and HKG seems be doing very badly right now, I doubt we'll see any Chinese expansion from the AC side for a while...

I can't really think of that many additional cities that would make sense outside of Busan and Fukuoka in the Japan/Korea region. Maybe Okinawa could work as a summer seasonal route ? But I think AC would probably add additional flights to Seoul or Tokyo before going to additional secondary markets. Speaking of Tokyo, could we ever see AC launching flights to Haneda if slots ever become available ?


Do you think AC could make PPT work ? If TN was struggling at SEA with feed from AS, do you think AC could somewhat make it work with its network out of YVR ?

From a recent post from Aeroroutes, AC will be going daily to PEK from May 1st. Maybe demand can slowly pick up with the recent addition of visa free travel to China ? Is HKG doing poorly because of lack of demand or because of the addition of HX ?

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

I can't really think of that many additional cities that would make sense outside of Busan and Fukuoka in the Japan/Korea region. Maybe Okinawa could work as a summer seasonal route ? But I think AC would probably add additional flights to Seoul or Tokyo before going to additional secondary markets. Speaking of Tokyo, could we ever see AC launching flights to Haneda if slots ever become available ?


Do you think AC could make PPT work ? If TN was struggling at SEA with feed from AS, do you think AC could somewhat make it work with its network out of YVR ?

From a recent post from Aeroroutes, AC will be going daily to PEK from May 1st. Maybe demand can slowly pick up with the recent addition of visa free travel to China ? Is HKG doing poorly because of lack of demand or because of the addition of HX ?

About the great Pacific ... if PPT was not making a go of it from SEA - a very wealthy city - was that because both TN and AF flew there? If Canada allowed AF a fifth freedom CDG-YVR-PPT could that work?

Also, someone mentioned DPS (Denpasar, the airport for Bali). Is that a nonstop from YVR? Or an extension of an existing route? Seasonal or F/T? Beautiful as they say it is,
would there be a sufficient $market from YVR? It seems like rather a long shot but that's just my opinion.

[Calfan12]

According a post of the Vancouver YVR Spotters Facebook Group page

Emirates Airlines is hiring staff for its YVR operations✅.

One poster mentioned Emirates planning to start YVR to Dubai DXB - YVR service with 4x weekly sometime March 2026 on the Boeing 777✅.

[ninjakafi_81]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

About the great Pacific ... if PPT was not making a go of it from SEA - a very wealthy city - was that because both TN and AF flew there? If Canada allowed AF a fifth freedom CDG-YVR-PPT could that work?

Also, someone mentioned DPS (Denpasar, the airport for Bali). Is that a nonstop from YVR? Or an extension of an existing route? Seasonal or F/T? Beautiful as they say it is,
would there be a sufficient $market from YVR? It seems like rather a long shot but that's just my opinion.

If I remember correctly, I think AF could do a fifth freedom flight between Paris and Tahiti with a stop at YVR. I think some other posters could correct me if I'm wrong. For me personally, I cant see Tahiti working but maybe Fiji could work as it seems like FJ is slowly increasing flights over the years.

Bali was mentioned as a potential destination in the Air Canada investor day map that they released. I would assume it would be a nonstop flight but would start out as a seasonal flight during the winter.

Originally Posted by Calfan12

According a post of the Vancouver YVR Spotters Facebook Group page

Emirates Airlines is hiring staff for its YVR operations✅.

One poster mentioned Emirates planning to start YVR to Dubai DXB - YVR service with 4x weekly sometime March 2026 on the Boeing 777✅.

What kind of positions are they hiring at YVR because they usually always post job postings in Vancouver.

[nname]

WS updated summer schedule until June 21. Changes I've found so far...

Suspension
YVR-SFO from 1x daily
YVR-SAN from 4x weekly
YVR-BOS from 1x daily
YVR-BNA from 2x weekly
YVR-MCO from 2x weekly

YVR-YUL from 2x weekly

Reduction
YVR-HNL to 5x weekly from 1x daily
YVR-OGG to 4x weekly from 5x weekly
YVR-LAX to 1x daily from 2x daily
YVR-LAS to 8x weekly from 2x daily
YVR-PHX to 2x weekly from 4x weekly
YVR-ATL to 8x weekly from 2x daily

YVR-YQR to 4x weekly from 1x daily

PSP and PHX have further cut for the month of May.


As for increase, I think there's some minor addition to YXE, YWG, YEG, and YYC.. but too sure though since I'm not really tracking anything over 1x daily

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Calfan12

According a post of the Vancouver YVR Spotters Facebook Group page

Emirates Airlines is hiring staff for its YVR operations✅.

One poster mentioned Emirates planning to start YVR to Dubai DXB - YVR service with 4x weekly sometime March 2026 on the Boeing 777✅.

* Wow! Does that mean Emirates is plannning service to YVR? What a breakthrough that would be!! I hope that what you read comes true.

[Johnny Aussie]

It would be nice if people actually took a few seconds to think before they post

The Emirates job postings in Vancouver are for pilots. If anyone thinks they are actually hiring pilots for a Vancouver base that’s awesome! Doesn’t matter if you block people on here but if someone quotes them you still have to read what they say. (Calfan just doesn’t get it along with a few others on here) Ugh.

Anyway, having looked through the comments of that post. There is a very reliable well connected forumer who has indicated EK is happening. Timeline is unsure atm but this year sounds like a given. I still prefer to corroborate any speculation like most rumours but sounds like this is going to happen. Should be a decent year for YVR?

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by nname

WS updated summer schedule until June 21. Changes I've found so far...

Suspension
YVR-SFO from 1x daily
YVR-SAN from 4x weekly
YVR-BOS from 1x daily
YVR-BNA from 2x weekly
YVR-MCO from 2x weekly

YVR-YUL from 2x weekly

Reduction
YVR-HNL to 5x weekly from 1x daily
YVR-OGG to 4x weekly from 5x weekly
YVR-LAX to 1x daily from 2x daily
YVR-LAS to 8x weekly from 2x daily
YVR-PHX to 2x weekly from 4x weekly
YVR-ATL to 8x weekly from 2x daily

YVR-YQR to 4x weekly from 1x daily

PSP and PHX have further cut for the month of May.


As for increase, I think there's some minor addition to YXE, YWG, YEG, and YYC.. but too sure though since I'm not really tracking anything over 1x daily

Not too surprised about the (WS) WestJet Vancouver YVR flight✈️ cuts/suspensions.
As WS in S26 will consolidate most Domestic, US & International passengers through its Calgary YYC Fortress Hub✅!

While (AC) Air Canada doing the “same” through its Toronto YYZ, Vancouver YVR & Montreal YUL Hubs✅!

[trofirhen]

The current geopolitical and economic shifts are impacting air travel, obviously. With Canada and Mexico linking arms economically, I wonder if MTY (Monterrey Mex) would be be a possible route.
Not a palmy resort by any stretch, the city is a major industrial and economic centre, often dubbed "The Wealthiest City In Latin America" due to its large urban GDP. YYZ has it. Would J class from YVR work?

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

The current geopolitical and economic shifts are impacting air travel, obviously. With Canada and Mexico linking arms economically, I wonder if MTY (Monterrey Mex) would be be a possible route.
Not a palmy resort by any stretch, the city is a major industrial and economic centre, often dubbed "The Wealthiest City In Latin America" due to its large urban GDP. YYZ has it. Would J class from YVR work?

Ive been to Monterrey a few times for work, it has a large Asian company presence so having connections to Asia makes sense. There is something like 150 Asian companies with a footprint in that region, mostly from Japan, Korea and China.
There are direct flights to Tokyo, Seoul from MTY already but that is a city that should be on the radar for the Asian connections.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I’ll throw my support into the SGN is next camp (or at least soon)

That'd be a pretty colourful destination

Originally Posted by nname

WS updated summer schedule until June 21. Changes I've found so far...

Suspension
YVR-SFO from 1x daily
YVR-SAN from 4x weekly
YVR-BOS from 1x daily
YVR-BNA from 2x weekly
YVR-MCO from 2x weekly

YVR-YUL from 2x weekly

Reduction
YVR-HNL to 5x weekly from 1x daily
YVR-OGG to 4x weekly from 5x weekly
YVR-LAX to 1x daily from 2x daily
YVR-LAS to 8x weekly from 2x daily
YVR-PHX to 2x weekly from 4x weekly
YVR-ATL to 8x weekly from 2x daily

YVR-YQR to 4x weekly from 1x daily

PSP and PHX have further cut for the month of May.


As for increase, I think there's some minor addition to YXE, YWG, YEG, and YYC.. but too sure though since I'm not really tracking anything over 1x daily

Oof that's a beatdown, though not at all unsurprising. I know I'm avoiding that dumpster fire like the plague right now.

Hope they get their act together sooner rather than later... but I'm not too hopeful.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

Do you think AC could make PPT work ? If TN was struggling at SEA with feed from AS, do you think AC could somewhat make it work with its network out of YVR ?

As the fleet grows, the 787-8s have to be deployed somewhere. PPT-YVR-CDG could be interesting.

[nname]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

As the fleet grows, the 787-8s have to be deployed somewhere. PPT-YVR-CDG could be interesting.

Well, the 788 fly 3 days a week to CTS, so they'll have to find somewhere else to fly to for the other 4 days.

Unless, of course, they are going to mixing it in with PEK/PVG/NRT/ICN by downgauging and cutting 3 weekly flight from there...

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Oof that's a beatdown, though not at all unsurprising. I know I'm avoiding that dumpster fire like the plague right now.

Hope they get their act together sooner rather than later... but I'm not too hopeful.

That's about 50% cut in transborder capacity from WS... YEG and YWG got hit pretty hard as well, while YYC sees only a minor reduction.

Wonder if this is the beginning of the retreat of WS from YVR and starting to make YHZ their secondary hub... For everything destination that was cut from YVR, they can always put you on a connecting flight through YYC


As for AC, they are increasing capacity to AUS and BNA from 223 to 7M8 through the end of June. Wonder if it's due to the WS cuts, or because they do not have enough 223 during the beginning of the summer season.

Wonder after WS retreat, if AC going to try with BOS and MCO again, now that they got both 223 and Rouge available at YVR base. Noticed they haven't announce anything new with 223 and Rouge yet, and from the linkedin post from VP, seems like there will be new announcement.

This is just the start of our next phase in Vancouver. We have plenty more in store for Canada's West Coast, as our A220 base expands, our first Rouge 737s get deployed, and we take delivery of more widebody aircraft in the years to come. We are all extremely proud that our Vancouver hub is, and will continue to be, one of the continent's largest Transpacific gateways.

source

Just don't know if they're for S26 or W26 or later...

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

That's about 50% cut in transborder capacity from WS...

Looks like they haven’t cut anything from the actual peak summer scheds yet. Looking at how transborder traffic is plummeting across the country probably doesn’t leave the Canadian carriers much choice but to cut. The trend downwards doesn’t seem to be recovering either.

Meanwhile, AC continues to stick with its two non-YVR transborder routes. YEG, at this stage, continuing with its seasonal SFO CR9. YYC-EWR the other route maintained year round.

MCO in the summer doesn’t seem ideal and BOS still to be served with Jetblue

[LeftCoaster]

So with the new ANA Narita service and a few other changes I updated my NS-26 chart. I assume a few more changes are upcoming but this is I believe up to date for now:



Seat growth at 8.6% is pretty strong, especially when a lot of the routes are running longer which this chart doesn't capture. Hopefully it's a good year for YVR transcon, especially since the transborder looks abysmal.

I also created a chart showing the potential for the ME carriers to enter YVR. With no better info I assumed daily EK on the 773 and daily QR on the 359. No idea if they do start service and if so what plane and frequency, but thought it would be fun to play around with:



The most interesting part of this chart is that if the assumptions here are correct we will finally be back to the seats/week high from 2019 (as I track it).

[twoNeurons]

Wow... ANA is going to fly ANOTHER flight to Tokyo? That's 5 daily flights to Tokyo in the summer.

I mean, if I'm honest, I'd have preferred YVR-KIX with NH or even YVR-FUK or YVR-NGO. I think there's a market for Fukuoka to get its first international flight to North America and pick up some American passengers who'd transfer through Vancouver.

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

So with the new ANA Narita service and a few other changes I updated my NS-26 chart. I assume a few more changes are upcoming but this is I believe up to date for now:

Seat growth at 8.6% is pretty strong, especially when a lot of the routes are running longer which this chart doesn't capture. Hopefully it's a good year for YVR transcon, especially since the transborder looks abysmal.

I also created a chart showing the potential for the ME carriers to enter YVR. With no better info I assumed daily EK on the 773 and daily QR on the 359. No idea if they do start service and if so what plane and frequency, but thought it would be fun to play around with:

The most interesting part of this chart is that if the assumptions here are correct we will finally be back to the seats/week high from 2019 (as I track it).

(Image removed from quote)

I don't think EK for QR will start with daily right away, if they are starting, at least for this summer.

As for NH, the plane will be reconfigured so it will be a regular 788 or 789 with NH standard.

If you're only tracking peak summer, then:
BA LHR is 359+77L
NZ AKL is fully 77W
QF SYD is 3x weekly for summer
FJ NAN is flying with 332
AC NRT is 789 for the summer
AC MEX is likely be Rouged by summer (so adding 6 seats each flight)
AM MEX is only 7x weekly this summer
ZG NRT is only 4x weekly for now

After these changes, summer 2026 should drop just below 2019 level (although likely to have much more passenger overall as the peak season is longer and planes are much more full)

Since the seats for Tokyo decreases and London increases, I'm actually curious which will be the top destination by seats... Tokyo or London or Hong Kong?

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

Wow... ANA is going to fly ANOTHER flight to Tokyo? That's 5 daily flights to Tokyo in the summer.

I mean, if I'm honest, I'd have preferred YVR-KIX with NH or even YVR-FUK or YVR-NGO. I think there's a market for Fukuoka to get its first international flight to North America and pick up some American passengers who'd transfer through Vancouver.

Good luck wanting NH or JL flying from anywhere other than NRT or HND. They will fly 3x daily from Tokyo and not even think of flying from a different city..

[LeftCoaster]

Thanks nname, you're always good for a few corrections!

Didn't know about the AM cut, that's a big drop (I know the visa issue is clearly at play here).

I revised BA to 7x772 and 7x35X since they don't have any 359. A dummy booking on BAs website also showed an A35X.

Made all the other changes you recommended except the MEX rouge since 6 seats was just not worth the effort at this point in the day!

As you probably expected, big drop for TYO, and a big jump for LON, totally swapped places.

Also I got the tracking table properly working when comparing to 2025, a lot of the links had broken and were saying 0.0% for some reason.

Here's the new layout (no ME carriers, that was just for fun until official):

[Johnny Aussie]

That list also just reinforces how subdued / suppressed mainland Chinese carriers remain.

Still only 12 weekly