Oregon Population Thread Including PSU and Census Data

[PlantDad]

Originally Posted by sopdx

This isn't downtown news, but i couldn't find the population section.
PSUs 2025 estimates are out.

https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-estimate-reports

Portland estimate is up a little more than 1k from 2024

639,402 640,623

Still down about 10,000 in population from 2020. Vacancy rate in the city is currently estimated at about 6.2% (less than national, but a far cry from our recent past) per this article by the Portland Area Rental Owners Association.

Statewide population barely increased from year over year and only 1.4% based on this estimate since 2020. I'm think Oregon will likely lose the additional electoral vote (and representative seat) in 2030 to one of the faster growing southern states, unless the growth trajectory changes soon.

[maccoinnich]

Originally Posted by PlantDad

I'm think Oregon will likely lose the additional electoral vote (and representative seat) in 2030 to one of the faster growing southern states, unless the growth trajectory changes soon.

I think that's more-or-less inevitable at this point.

[colossalorder]

I thought this was an interesting study. It looked at the cost of chain restaurants in different states/cities. The idea being ... same product, different location. Washington is the most expensive state. Oregon is 3rd after California.

https://files.wha.fyi/file/VariousReports/2025-Cost-of-Dining-Report.pdf

We live in an amazing place, but the cost of living here is probably pushing many people out.

[rsbear]

Originally Posted by colossalorder

I thought this was an interesting study. It looked at the cost of chain restaurants in different states/cities. The idea being ... same product, different location. Washington is the most expensive state. Oregon is 3rd after California.

https://files.wha.fyi/file/VariousReports/2025-Cost-of-Dining-Report.pdf

We live in an amazing place, but the cost of living here is probably pushing many people out.

The results for Oregon are a bit flawed, assuming the study did not factor in sales tax on restaurant meals. Oregon's cost would be less than the reported 9% above the national average, as all states in the study but Delaware, Montana and New Hampshire impose a sales tax, which averages 7.52% nationwide.

[colossalorder]

Its an interesting point, but I think factoring in taxes is tricky to do apples to apples comparison. Like comparing OR to WA - sales tax vs. income tax. We don't pay it at register, but we do pay it out of our paycheck and there for have less after-tax $ to spend on dining out than a comparable WA resident.

[rsbear]

Originally Posted by colossalorder

Its an interesting point, but I think factoring in taxes is tricky to do apples to apples comparison. Like comparing OR to WA - sales tax vs. income tax. We don't pay it at register, but we do pay it out of our paycheck and there for have less after-tax $ to spend on dining out than a comparable WA resident.

Reasonable point on WA, but nearly 40 of the lower 48 states have an income tax AND a sales tax, so Oregon's ranking in this survey is still flawed as it does not compare the total cost of eating out - only the pre-tax cost.

[aquaticko]

Okay, but let's be real, dining-out costs are not a major expense for most people. Rent still predominates most people's expenditures, and Portland is still #11 in rent-to-income expenditures nationally. Also notable is that the greatest pressure on Oregon's housing market is probably still coming from California, which absolutely dominates those lists. Makes it all the more tragic that we don't have at least regional coordination on these these things, because from what I hear, despite these ongoing south-of-the-border pressures (and to a certain extent, probably from Seattle, too), Oregon's (Portland's) housing construction is slowing way down, due to a variety of factors.

Makes it all the more galling to hear people claim its "taxes" when really, it just that there are better deals than Oregon's housing markets, especially given how fragile the state's economy is. Sure, taxes may be a tipping point, but for most people, rent/mortgage is THE deciding factor.

[downtownpdx]

Oregon tops nationwide list for inbound movers. Is population growth on the rebound?

Oregon experienced the highest percentage of inbound movers in the nation last year, according to a new survey, another sign the state’s population slowdown may be coming to an end.

Interstate hauler United Van Lines released its annual moving survey that shows migration patterns across the U.S.

Oregon topped the list for share of inbound movers, with 64.5% of those who moved coming into the state and 35.5% moving out. A year ago, the Beaver State sat at No. 8 for inbound rankings, with 57.9% moving in and 42.1% moving out. (New Jersey ranked highest for outbound moves for the eighth year straight, according to United Van Lines, as 62.3% of those who moved were leaving the Garden State.)

(continues)

[twofiftyfive]

Originally Posted by downtownpdx

Oregon tops nationwide list for inbound movers. Is population growth on the rebound?



(continues)

If I’m reading that correctly it seems like a strange way to measure migration. If one person moves into a state and no one moves out, it would be 100% inbound migration. I didn’t see anything about actual numbers.

[downtownpdx]

Originally Posted by twofiftyfive

If I’m reading that correctly it seems like a strange way to measure migration. If one person moves into a state and no one moves out, it would be 100% inbound migration. I didn’t see anything about actual numbers.

Yeah I certainly don’t think Oregon’s population is booming right now with the economic situation (Intel layoffs etc). But they survey 2,000 movers in the state, so it’s a positive sign that there is much higher inbound activity than outbound from this sample.

[aquaticko]

Just as someone whose work entails meeting often dozens of new people every work day, it remains true that I meet far fewer native Oregonians than transplants from other states (like myself).

It's still cheaper than California. Portland is still cheaper than SF/LA, or Seattle (or Boston or NYC). The weather is a lot milder than almost anywhere else in the country (besides, of course, California). There's a greater diversity of jobs here than in, say, Idaho or North Dakota.

Oregon--and Portland--are not perfect places, but I think people here underestimate a lot of the inherent strengths of the state; that California is only now just coming to terms with the nigh 50-year old real estate development debacle that is prop 13 continues to be a huge boon to this place. Nowhere else is more like (at least northern) California than Oregon.

The lack of a solid economic foundation that isn't just resource extraction is a continued problem, yes, but not an unsolvable one. Everything else is just a side dish.

[mhays]

United Van Lines would be counting people with a lot of stuff (generally well into adulthood) but not most 22-year-olds. They'd also miss the typical overseas immigrant. So it's somewhat skewed.

But what the heck. They track their trucks so it's easy to publish numbers, as they are. It's also closer to real-time than most population stats. It's an interesting canary.

[downtownpdx]

U-Haul's 2025 report also points to increasing Oregon in-migration growth, at least from within the country.

The state jumped from 34th (net loser) in inbound activity in 2024 to 11th in 2025, the largest ranking gain of any state.