Statistics Canada Reports II

[jamincan]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Those Burlington numbers are really odd. Burlington is already over 200,000 from what I recall, and definitely over 190,000.

You're right, it is 189k as of the 2021 census. Maybe they project with an aging population it will shrink in the near term, but that seems like a pretty unlikely.

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recen...-eng.cfm?Lang=E&GEOCODE=2021A00053524002

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by Changing City

It's interesting to see how different the sequence is when looking at the numbers of dwellings under construction at the end of October.

Toronto 89,256
Vancouver 61,577
Montreal 32,702
Calgary 26,545
Ottawa-Gatineau 20,990
Edmonton 13,539
Halifax 13,206
Quebec City 9,676
Victoria 8,896
Winnipeg 7,974
KW 7,250
Hamilton 6,837
Kelowna 6,197
London 5,200
Saskatoon 4,113
Moncton 3,714
Abbotsford-Mission 3,006

You can tell which cities have more apartment units with concrete construction. The cities with high number of starts, but smaller number of units still under construction would have more wood frame and smaller builds. Calgary for example has a lot of smaller wood frame apartments and a lot of row homes (more than any other city)

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by jamincan

You're right, it is 189k as of the 2021 census. Maybe they project with an aging population it will shrink in the near term, but that seems like a pretty unlikely.

Burlington is at an odd point too. The city is basically built-out with no additional greenfield development land in the conversation, and conversions of older building sites to towers have resulted in much debate and angst (city council is against that, for the most part). There are plenty of "suburban" commercial properties with large parking lots that can be used for new residential, but relatively few current proposals.

It may be some time before there's enough direction in local politics/opinion and growth norms before a projectable trend is clear, and forecasts that rely on historical figures won't be accurate because the situation has changed.

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

You can tell which cities have more apartment units with concrete construction. The cities with high number of starts, but smaller number of units still under construction would have more wood frame and smaller builds. Calgary for example has a lot of smaller wood frame apartments and a lot of row homes (more than any other city)

I agree, Edmonton and Saskatoon have a lot of wood frame construction on the go right now.

[hipster duck]

Isn't Burlington one of the most NIMBY places? They have some infill downtown, but it's pretty miniscule in the grand scheme of things, and I'm not sure if it can make up for the natural decrease in population from the thousands of wealthy, aging SFH owners whose kids are moving out.

It's kind of like how Mississauga declined in population between the last two censuses.

[GeneralLea]

Yeah, Burlington is pretty NIMBY. Not to the point of Oakville (outside of Oakville's new greenfield development), but it definitely stifles intensification efforts from my understanding.

[jamincan]

But I doubt Statistics Canada is gauging how NIMBY Burlington is, or even how much greenfield land is available, in generating its population projections.

[Innsertnamehere]

Yea. Burlingtons population has been pretty flat over the last decade so they probably just projected that out. Still not sure why it’s such a decline, but still.

Burlington does have some greenfield areas which will likely move forward in the next 10-15 years as well, they just aren’t massive. The area at BurlOak and Upper Middle and west of Tremaine Rd north of Dundas come to mind as areas designated for new suburban residential areas.

[rdaner]

Burlington does have a number of buildings going up in the downtown as well as around Burlington GO which has TOD zoning so not as bad as many assume.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Airboy

I agree, Edmonton and Saskatoon have a lot of wood frame construction on the go right now.

The big three metros and Ottawa are mostly apartment buildings as new housing, whereas the prairie cities seem to have a fairly high amount of houses, duplexes and rowhomes. Maybe due to land being cheaper? or no real geographical limitations?

[someone123]

Originally Posted by jamincan

But I doubt Statistics Canada is gauging how NIMBY Burlington is, or even how much greenfield land is available, in generating its population projections.

My impression is that they tend toward population lifecycle analysis and tend to weight factors like age, mortality, and fertility.

There's nothing wrong with this per se but it doesn't model things like the feds putting immigration up by 3x, people getting priced out of another city's housing, some industry exploding or collapsing somewhere, or a suburb running out of land. It works better for something like the population projection of India or China rather than the future population of Burlington.

I wonder if they are a net negative for a lot of municipalities, and if population modeling tends to be in general. I'm not sure it's ever been that accurate in North America. I think it is "scientistic"; it spits out numbers and feels objective but there isn't necessarily a way to tell that it will be more valid than any other particular model. It's not comparable to the census even though it too consists of population figures.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

The big three metros and Ottawa are mostly apartment buildings as new housing, whereas the prairie cities seem to have a fairly high amount of houses, duplexes and rowhomes. Maybe due to land being cheaper? or no real geographical limitations?

Probably both.

Here's the under construction list again, with the proportion of apartments being built. Calgary has the lowest proportion - but even there two-thirds of the units being built are apartments.

Montreal 32,702 95%
KW 7,250 93%
Quebec City 9,676 92%
Hamilton 6,837 90%
Vancouver 61,577 90%
Halifax 11,727 89%
Toronto 89,256 88%
Kelowna 6,197 88%
Victoria 8,896 88%
Moncton 3,714 84%
Ottawa-Gatineau 20,990 83%
London 5,200 80%
Edmonton 13,539 77%
Abbotsford-Mission 3,006 74%
Winnipeg 7,974 74%
Saskatoon 4,113 67%
Calgary 26,545 67%

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Probably both.

Here's the under construction list again, with the proportion of apartments being built. Calgary has the lowest proportion - but even there two-thirds of the units being built are apartments.

Montreal 32,702 95%
KW 7,250 93%
Quebec City 9,676 92%
Hamilton 6,837 90%
Vancouver 61,577 90%
Halifax 11,727 89%
Toronto 89,256 88%
Kelowna 6,197 88%
Victoria 8,896 88%
Moncton 3,714 84%
Ottawa-Gatineau 20,990 83%
London 5,200 80%
Edmonton 13,539 77%
Abbotsford-Mission 3,006 74%
Winnipeg 7,974 74%
Saskatoon 4,113 67%
Calgary 26,545 67%

Now that the majority of housing is multi-unit in character, I'm curious about even more detailed breakdowns, like number of bedrooms, square footage, etc.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

The big three metros and Ottawa are mostly apartment buildings as new housing, whereas the prairie cities seem to have a fairly high amount of houses, duplexes and rowhomes. Maybe due to land being cheaper? or no real geographical limitations?

Originally Posted by Changing City

Probably both.

Here's the under construction list again, with the proportion of apartments being built. Calgary has the lowest proportion - but even there two-thirds of the units being built are apartments.

Montreal 32,702 95%
KW 7,250 93%
Quebec City 9,676 92%
Hamilton 6,837 90%
Vancouver 61,577 90%
Halifax 11,727 89%
Toronto 89,256 88%
Kelowna 6,197 88%
Victoria 8,896 88%
Moncton 3,714 84%
Ottawa-Gatineau 20,990 83%
London 5,200 80%
Edmonton 13,539 77%
Abbotsford-Mission 3,006 74%
Winnipeg 7,974 74%about
Saskatoon 4,113 67%
Calgary 26,545 67%

It's really hard to say. I'm sure part of it is related to cheaper land and less geographical constraints, as there is still a fair bit of greenfield development but also of the 26,545 units under construction at least half are new builds in established neighborhoods.
One thing to keep in mind is Calgary has the lowest % in apartment builds, but not the highest % in SFH. It's the highest % for semi and rowhome, so it murks up the numbers a bit. This list is for all Calgary multi family developments in established areas that are 25 units or more, and there's about 10,000 unit u/c in the list. There are also hundreds (not exaggerating) of brownfield developments that are between 4-24 units u/c. Definitely far more inner city and brownfield developments than in decades past where all growth was greenfield.
I would say cheaper land due to no geographical contraints helps keep greenfield development high, but about the development is also in expensive brownfield development. So kind of a mixed bag really.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Stats Can:

Canada's population decreases from July 1 to October 1, 2025. 76,068 people.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu...217b-eng.htm?HPA=1&indid=4098-1&indgeo=0

[MolsonExport]

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Stats Can:

Canada's population decreases from July 1 to October 1, 2025. 76,068 people.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu...217b-eng.htm?HPA=1&indid=4098-1&indgeo=0

Not surprised at all. I wouldn't be surprised if 2026 records negative population growth across the entire year.

I am eagerly awaiting the CMA population estimates next year to see how this is playing out across CMAs. I suspect Toronto is going to see a significant drop in population.

[FrAnKs]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Stats Can:

Canada's population decreases from July 1 to October 1, 2025. 76,068 people.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu...217b-eng.htm?HPA=1&indid=4098-1&indgeo=0

Intéressant.

Quebec catching up Ontario, on backwards.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Not surprising to see the decrease. We all knew it was coming, and will likely only be a one, maybe two year deal.

Originally Posted by FrAnKs

Intéressant.

Quebec catching up Ontario, on backwards.

I wouldn't read too much into it. This is most likely a one year trend, maybe two year trend at most.

[MolsonExport]

Geography Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
Canada 41,494,132 41,574,517 41,604,555 41,651,653 41,575,585
Newfoundland and Labrador (map) 548,402 548,842 549,456 549,911 549,738
Prince Edward Island (map) 180,877 180,686 181,289 182,657 182,508
Nova Scotia (map) 1,088,273 1,089,187 1,091,037 1,093,245 1,091,857
New Brunswick (map) 863,841 865,945 867,014 869,682 868,630
Quebec (map) 9,038,268 9,043,463 9,041,123 9,058,297 9,058,089
Ontario (map) 16,228,152 16,255,550 16,256,538 16,258,260 16,191,372
Manitoba (map) 1,500,464 1,505,644 1,508,031 1,509,702 1,507,057
Saskatchewan (map) 1,256,983 1,261,524 1,264,537 1,266,959 1,266,234
Alberta (map) 4,957,075 4,988,181 5,010,078 5,029,346 5,040,871
British Columbia (map) 5,696,852 5,699,989 5,699,690 5,697,536 5,683,201
Yukon (map) 47,939 48,176 48,089 48,278 48,261
Northwest Territories (map) 45,520 45,679 45,875 45,950 45,848
Nunavut (map) 41,486 41,651 41,798 41,830 41,919

huge quarterly population decline for Ontario. Only Alberta (plus Nunavut) is up for the last quarter.