YVR & Sea Island Developments Discussion II

[trofirhen]

TK to Istanbul is still limited to 3 weekly by Transport Canada. /// Why is that? /// (TK wants one more, I believe). /// Is out of fear that given more frequncies (An extra one per week maybe) is going to siphon off too much other other traffic? /// That was the apparent rationale for blocking EK, which then went to Seattle. /// But I cannot understand why these excessively tight regulations are applied by Canada? /// Can someone explain it to me? Thank you.

[ninjakafi_81]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

TK to Istanbul is still limited to 3 weekly by Transport Canada. /// Why is that? /// (TK wants one more, I believe). /// Is out of fear that given more frequncies (An extra one per week maybe) is going to siphon off too much other other traffic? /// That was the apparent rationale for blocking EK, which then went to Seattle. /// But I cannot understand why these excessively tight regulations are applied by Canada? /// Can someone explain it to me? Thank you.

TK can only fly 3x weekly west of Ontario / Manitoba border.

Under the terms of the Agreement, each country may allocate among its designated air carriers twelve weekly flights to be operated using their own aircraft, in each direction. Turkish designated airlines may operate nine weekly flights east of the Ontario Manitoba border (that is Toronto and Montréal), and three west of the same border (that is Vancouver).

Turkish Airlines currently operates the maximum twelve weekly passenger flights to Canada as permitted under the Agreement: six to Toronto, three to Montréal and three to Vancouver, all from Istanbul.

https://otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2024-45

[nname]

Originally Posted by nname

ZG further increase YVR-NRT, adding Wed flight for the full season, and Tues/Thurs for part of the latter half of the season from Jan.

Overall schedule:
Oct26-Nov1 - 6x weekly x2
Nov2-Nov11 - 4x weekly x247
Nov12-Jan10 - 6x weekly x2
Jan11-Feb10 - 5x weekly x27
Feb11-Mar11 - 6x weekly x7
Mar12-Mar28 - 4x weekly x247

I guess low-cost carriers and F8 and ZG all set their schedule on week by week basis to get the capacity just right?

Looks like ZG is indecisive this winter as to how much service they want to put on the YVR route. In the 4th update today, service is increase to 6x weekly from March 20 for days x2...

If they are operating 6x weekly for much of the winter season, maybe we'll see them increase the route to daily next summer?

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

TK can only fly 3x weekly west of Ontario / Manitoba border.
https://otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2024-45

Thank you for the explanation, I appreciate it. I still don't understand why TK, having long requested more weekly flights to YVR (they began asking for 5x/week, but were pushed down to three,) cannot have the bilateral "tweaked" to give them that coveted extra flight - at least in summer. OK, WHAT is Transport Canada so afraid of?? What have they got to lose?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Looks like ZG is indecisive this winter as to how much service they want to put on the YVR route. In the 4th update today, service is increase to 6x weekly from March 20 for days x2...

If they are operating 6x weekly for much of the winter season, maybe we'll see them increase the route to daily next summer?

You are right. Summer being the peak travel season it would seem logical to have it go daily.

4 daily to Tokyo on 4 different carriers would be awesome. Osaka perhaps the next logical route to extend year round as the season continues to stretch longer.

[ninjakafi_81]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Thank you for the explanation, I appreciate it. I still don't understand why TK, having long requested more weekly flights to YVR (they began asking for 5x/week, but were pushed down to three,) cannot have the bilateral "tweaked" to give them that coveted extra flight - at least in summer. OK, WHAT is Transport Canada so afraid of?? What have they got to lose?

TK in the past have requested for additional flight to Toronto to serve it daily during the peak summer season. Earlier this year, they requested for an extra 5 flights into Canada to serve Toronto daily and Montreal / Vancouver 5x weekly. They were promptly denied, which made sense as if they want more flights into Canada, they should properly negotiate for it like with the UAE and Qatar.

Interestingly, here are some of the responses about TK wanting the extra flights into Canada.

Case number: 24-66305

Application

Turkish Airlines has applied to the Canadian Transportation Agency (Agency) for extra-bilateral authority to permit it to operate five additional flights per week between Türkiye and Canada, for the period of April 1, 2025, to October 31, 2025. Of the five additional flights, one would be between Istanbul and Toronto, two between Istanbul and Montréal, and two between Istanbul and Vancouver.

Turkish Airlines is licensed to operate a scheduled international service in accordance with the Agreement between the Government of Canada and the Government of the Republic of Turkey on Air Transport, initialled ad referendum on March 13, 2009, as amended (Agreement).

Under the terms of the Agreement, each country may allocate among its designated air carriers twelve weekly flights to be operated using their own aircraft, in each direction.

In its application, Turkish Airlines asserts that there is an increased demand for air travel between the two countries and suggests that the additional flights will potentially lead to job creation in the airline industry, boosting tourism revenue, and strengthening economic ties between the two countries.

Turkish Airlines also contends that the additional flights will enhance the connectivity between the two countries and beyond, and argues that it would permit it to remain competitive in the market, while also benefitting consumers with more choice and potentially lower fares.

Turkish Airlines thus requests extra-bilateral authority to operate five additional weekly flights per week to Canada, for a total of seventeen weekly flights.

Industry notice

Due to the extra-bilateral nature of Turkish Airlines' requested authority, the Agency gave notice of the application to parties that may have an interest, namely Air Canada, also carrying on business as Air Canada rouge and as Air Canada Cargo (Air Canada); Air Transat A.T. Inc., carrying on business as Air Transat (Air Transat); Aéroports de Montréal (ADM); the Greater Toronto Airports Authority (GTAA); and the Vancouver Airport Authority.

Air Canada, Air Transat, ADM and the GTAA filed interventions in respect of the application.

Position of the parties

Air Canada opposes the application. It states that the application represents a 42% increase to the capacity allowed by the Agreement, which it contends is unreasonably excessive within the confines of any extra-bilateral application and that the request is for an entire IATA season.

Air Canada is also of the view that the extra capacity sought far exceeds any prospective growth, indicating that it has reduced capacity to the region by 20% for the next 10 months.

Finally, Air Canada states that the additional flights requested should only be considered in the context of the normal bilateral negotiation process, because air transport agreements are negotiated based on a balance of benefits to both parties, and the process should not be circumvented and undermine the Government of Canada's position in any future bilateral negotiations.

Air Transat states that it opposes the application. It notes that Turkish Airlines is seeking a significant increase to the capacity allowed by the Agreement for an entire IATA season.

Air Transat contends that the substance of the extra-bilateral application is properly the subject of direct negotiations of the Agreement.

ADM supports the application. ADM asserts that Turkish Airlines' network simplifies the connection of Montréal passengers to several countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia and all of these regions would benefit from an improved service to Montréal.

Finally, the GTAA also supports the application. It indicates that the Agreement does not permit adequate capacity to serve the rapidly growing demand. The current capacity only permits a daily service to Toronto, which would not be enough to ensure a commercially viable service to Montréal at the same time.

GTAA adds that the annual demand for services between Canada and Türkiye has been growing and represents an increase of 49% in 2023, when compared with 2019.

In its reply, Turkish Airlines asserts that to its knowledge, no Canadian carrier has official plans of operating in this market from Vancouver or Montréal during the next summer season and that Air Canada has ceased its operations to Istanbul in 2017, and its 20% reduction of capacity is unrelated to Türkiye.

Turkish Airlines also claims that the assertion that bilateral negotiations alone should resolve capacity issues does not address the urgency of meeting the demand of the next summer season.

https://otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2025-25

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

TK in the past have requested for additional flight to Toronto to serve it daily during the peak summer season. Earlier this year, they requested for an extra 5 flights into Canada to serve Toronto daily and Montreal / Vancouver 5x weekly. They were promptly denied, which made sense as if they want more flights into Canada, they should properly negotiate for it like with the UAE and Qatar.

Interestingly, here are some of the responses about TK wanting the extra flights into Canada.



https://otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2025-25

So basically Air Canada, Air Transat & along with (WestJet quietly) working together to prevent more access of flights ✈️ for Middle Eastern Airlines at Toronto YYZ , Vancouver YVR & Montreal YUL.
This has been going on for the last couple of years & not changing anytime soon✅.

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Excuse me. My mistake, it seems. I heard about ANA dropping Seattle on youtube, but could not find that video again. ///// That said, DELTA has dropped Seattle><Haneda.
https://crankyflier.com/2015/06/23/delta...'s,they%20can't%20be%20justified.

You may wish to recheck your sources. Delta has not dropped SEA-HND.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Great chart as always lefty

Just a couple of changes I noticed

You’ve included some of the Mexico flights but labelled the chart Intercontinental

LH MUC is daily
AC DUB is 3 weekly
WK ZRH will be a 343
AF CDG will be a 359

Ya I put the urban Mexico and latam flights on there even though they're not intercontinental. It's really just trying to get an idea of the actual pedigree routes that aren't driven by cheapo package flights or all inclusive destinations. For example I've got San Salvador, Panama City etc... in YYZ's table too.

I made most of the changes you noted but not WK. I have to assume that is a holding note in their schedule, since I'd be surprised if they downgraded YVR to the 343 after a lot of fanfare for the 359 taking over the route this summer. If it remains 343 as we get closer to NS26 I'll definitely make the change though.

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

Thank you for continuing to make these tables. They are excellent and a source of ongoing interest to me.

It's also interesting to see how dominant Boeing wide-bodies remain at YVR. Dreamliners and 777s make up the vast majority of long-haul metal.

Ya it really is a Boeing heavy airport. Of course AC is a big part of that but even outside of AC it really is Boeing heavy.

Originally Posted by Ozabald

You may wish to recheck your sources. Delta has not dropped SEA-HND.

Ya that article was dated 2015 so not really sure what the point in posting that was.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Ozabald

You may wish to recheck your sources. Delta has not dropped SEA-HND.

Yikes, my mistake, excuse me. I saw on a Youtube video all about airlines pulling out of the USA for given reasons. In that video, it mentioned ANA pulling out of SEA-TAC. Obviously in error.
Regarding that link about Delta pulling out of SEA-TAC, the magazine is (on second look duh: from 2015, so I assumed it was current, but was 10 years out of date! All that said, it might be interesting to see just what airlines are in fact pulling out of the USA, and/or reducing service.
All that said, I wonder if Canadian airports could provide a more stable option for entering North America, at least for some airlines.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

...I wonder if Canadian airports could provide a more stable option for entering North America, at least for some airlines.

That word "stable" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in these uncertain days...

[nname]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

----------------------------------

I've tried to capture the S26 changes so far.

Here's what I've got. I also added in summer, winter and year round notation, and a lost of the top 5 markets.

Interestingly for an airport that used to be very summer seasonal YVR now has the fewest summer seasonal longhauls of the big 4 airports in Canada.

I think trans-Pacific flights are mostly for year-round destinations, and Asian carriers rarely operate seasonal flights. It seems like seasonal flights are mainly North American or European thing.

If you check Asian carriers at their hub airports.. CA/HU have no seasonal flights from PEK, BR/CI have none from TPE, NH/JL have none at both NRT/HND, MU/HO/FM have none at PVG, KE/OZ have combined 3 at ICN, SQ/TR combined have a single seasonal flight from SIN, TG/VZ have one seasonal flight each to the same destination out of BKK, CZ have 4 from CAN out of rows and rows of year-round destinations. Now compared to AC at YVR/YYZ/YUL or WS at YYC, where the seasonal list is as long, if not longer than the year-round ones. Seasonal list will only grow longer when XLR and more 789 arrives for AC/WS.

When SQ first announced YVR flight was seasonal, people were surprised because SQ doesn't really do seasonal flights, besides CTS for the ski season.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Great chart as always lefty

Just a couple of changes I noticed

You’ve included some of the Mexico flights but labelled the chart Intercontinental

LH MUC is daily
AC DUB is 3 weekly
WK ZRH will be a 343
AF CDG will be a 359

As of the schedule update today, YVR-DUB is now 4x weekly for the entire season.

Last year it was 3x weekly, then increase to 5x mid-season, then scale back to 4x in the later half of the season.

Also, I don't think CX is doing the extra 3x weekly mid-morning flight next year. Seems like they'll just let HX have their piece of the pie...

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

I think trans-Pacific flights are mostly for year-round destinations, and Asian carriers rarely operate seasonal flights. It seems like seasonal flights are mainly North American or European thing.

Just to visualise how seasonal YVR-Europe is:

BA goes from 7 weekly -> 21 weekly
AC 7 -> 18
LH 9 -> 14
KL 3 -> 7
AF 5-7 -> 7
DE 0 -> 7
WK 0 -> 7
FI 4 -> 6

No change

TK 3 -> 3

Total 40 weekly on 7 carriers -> 90 weekly on 9 carriers

[ninjakafi_81]

Air Canada Discontinues Vancouver – Dubai Seasonal Service in NW25

Air Canada in Thursday’s schedule update (18SEP25) closed reservations for Vancouver – Dubai seasonal route, previously scheduled from 22NOV25 to 26MAR26 (Vancouver departure). The Star Alliance member previously scheduled 3 weekly flights with 787-9 Dreamliner.

AC078 YVR2105 – 0005+2DXB 789 146
AC079 DXB0205 – 0555YVR 789 136

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250918-acnw25yvrdxb

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

Air Canada Discontinues Vancouver – Dubai Seasonal Service in NW25



https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250918-acnw25yvrdxb

Noooooooooo I wonder where the capacity will be shifted to?

[Johnny Aussie]

Another change nname

Time for another update please!

DXB is the one AC destination from YVR that I almost always forgot about

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by hehehe

Noooooooooo I wonder where the capacity will be shifted to?

Asia-Pacific is a safe bet…..

[VancityAvgeek33]

Well we lost Dubai but gained Fort McMurray. I lowkey wonder why we lost Dubai? Thought it was doing well. Hopefully Emirates can finally launch more frequent flights to Vancouver. Maybe that’s the news that we all have been waiting for.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by VancityAvgeek33

Well we lost Dubai but gained Fort McMurray. I lowkey wonder why we lost Dubai? Thought it was doing well. Hopefully Emirates can finally launch more frequent flights to Vancouver. Maybe that’s the news that we all have been waiting for.

The SEA-DXB flight typically passes through Russia and Iran. Going through Europe and Egypt (as an Air Canada flight would need to do), you're taking on 15% distance.

Then there is: who is the market. It might have been doing well seat wise, but was demand premium heavy enough? Lots of friends and family flying & transiting via Dubai to Pakistan, India, and Iran.

[ninjakafi_81]

Originally Posted by VancityAvgeek33

Well we lost Dubai but gained Fort McMurray. I lowkey wonder why we lost Dubai? Thought it was doing well. Hopefully Emirates can finally launch more frequent flights to Vancouver. Maybe that’s the news that we all have been waiting for.

Until the bilaterals between the Canada and the UAE gets updated, we won't be seeing EK at YVR. Right now the bilateral is maxed out on the UAE side with 21x weekly flights split between EK and EY (EK with 7x weekly YUL,7x weekly YYZ, and EY with 7x weekly YYZ).