Quote:
Originally Posted by GMD
Because the current volume of temporary residents in the country is so huge, reducing this inflow (as planned), will mean so many more temporary residents leaving than arriving, that this reduction in temporary residents will be larger than the ongoing (reduced by 20% as you say) flow of permanent residents, resulting in a population decline.
Of course, that relies on a number of factors, so the population may not actually decline, but certainly the growth rate will be very low for a couple of years as the pig passes out of the python, so to speak.
Still, in the same way that Vancouver was cushioned from the post-Covid collapse in commercial real estate because our market was so tight prior to Covid, the fact that we are currently buckling under a huge wave of immigrants will likely make it easier to adjust to a couple of years of slow volumes.
Also, interest rates coming down should help a lot to offset this as well.
Finally, completion of LNG Canada, Site C and Broadway Extension will all be big wins for the province, although this also means that the government should be looking at new capital projects to pick up the slack these completions will leave.
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Actually the more pertinent reason is because immigrants typically tend to have higher fertility rates and have babies at a more robust rate than native born citizens.
This has been an established phenomenon for several decades now - and not just in Canada but in most western countries that rely considerably on immigration to balance their population growth and meet their labor needs.
Eventually their birth rates level down as the generations pass through and it comes to match what the native-born fertility rate is, which is why significantly cutting down immigration would likely have a considerable (and disproportionate) impact on population growth necessary to keep up with the growing economy we have, and the workforce labor needs it entails.
Unless you have a way of dialing up the native-born fertility rate - which would be a reverse of what normally happens in developed and first world countries.
The ugly truth about immigration is that the First World is becoming more reliant on the developing world (and emigrees from fellow first world countries) to keep their stagnant or declining populations from dropping far below replacement levels, (more than they already are) and within the next 30-40 years there will be an arms race, ...of sorts, for skilled, educated (and yes, young and fertile) immigrants between the various First World nations, as they begin to experience population crunches from retiring workforces and declining population growth.
Far East Asian countries like Japan are already experiencing this.
Their current workforce demographic is having babies at lower than the necessary replacement levels to be able to support them when they retire and will have to figure out a solution sooner rather than later.
The solution for them is not just as easy as open up the tap to allow more immigrants in given how they're a notoriously very nationalistic and culturally insular nation, that's hard for immigrants to move to and settle in.
The
'population decline' issue is something that's just going to whiff past most people's heads as they're agitating for cutting down on immigration, but it is one of the factors that's a reality for a country like Canada that definitely relies on immigration to the degree we do.
It's also worth noting that cutting down immigration is absolutely not going to fix Canada's affordability and housing crisis issues (not to the degree that most people, like,....those seemingly on here,.. think it will), and it could actually backfire in terms of the effects on the economy for those who think that incomes will rise just because you've removed a signification portion of an exploited low-earning labor force.
What do you think happens to the price of your espresso or you large French Vanilla when the coffee shop is forced to raise the wages and incomes of the people making it?
It's an easy issue to demagogue during election cycles, and immigrants are - as they always always have been and will be -.....an easy and soft target, and uber-convenient scapegoats.
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