BC Political Discussion: Election 2024 & 43rd Parliament - Page 47

madog222 · #**921** Posted **Oct 26, 2024, 11:54 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

NDP are gonna flip Surrey-Guildford.

Eby won a majority of at least 47 seats

https://x.com/chadskelton/status/1850276492573634643

That's still looking likely after the 4pm update. No others are look to be flipped though Kelowna Centre is very close.

https://x.com/chadskelton/status/1850317994800341311

47-44-2 looking like the final district count.

Alex Mackinnon · #**922** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 12:13 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by logicbomb

My own brother has bought into the belief that the election is being stolen.

So you're the logicbomb of the family, and your brother bombs-at-logic?

Migrant_Coconut · #**923** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 12:14 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMD

See my post above. Expecting there to a rational component to this type of thinking is a mistake.

You're not wrong. I'ma say it anyway.

csbvan · #**924** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 12:17 AM**

YIMBYism stays, NIMBYism punted, and the most racist and downright batsh*t political party in Canada today is likely to implode as former BC Libs realize who they are sitting next to (hello Brent Chapman and now-defeated maggot Maria Sapozhnikov). Next election Eby will run against a likely unpopular Pollievre government, and his provincial opposition? I don't think the right holds together in BC after this loss. Too wackadoo under Rustad, and the NDP just won in the most hostile, anti-incumbent electoral environment we've ever seen. Centrist revolt coming to the BC Con caucus, especially if they dip in the polls as their backbench espouses absurdities in opposition. Squeaker, but with the first 3-term NDP government in Canadian history, won in this environment, with that flimsy an opposition? Eby's gotta feel pretty relieved.

Alex Mackinnon · #**925** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 12:19 AM**

I have to wonder if the NDP will look for a speaker from another party to help bolster their majority? Seems like they'd have some potentials who're dissatisfied with a people they find themselves in opposition with.

Bcasey25raptor · #**926** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 12:33 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

I have to wonder if the NDP will look for a speaker from another party to help bolster their majority? Seems like they'd have some potentials who're dissatisfied with a people they find themselves in opposition with.

Maybe one of the Greens would do it? It's a possibility

csbvan · #**927** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 1:19 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

I have to wonder if the NDP will look for a speaker from another party to help bolster their majority? Seems like they'd have some potentials who're dissatisfied with a people they find themselves in opposition with.

I was also wondering that. They'll probably try. But will a Green give up the power they have? Maybe a centrist Conservative who is upset by their caucus. See Peter Milobar's statement about the Con's Juan de Fuca candidate today, and her almost impossibly racist election night comments. Seems like there may be some uncomfortable centrists over there. I bet a few of them have a lot to say about Rustad.

logicbomb · #**928** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 1:22 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Changing City

Has he been listening to the sort of people who say things like "My gut says the Juan De Fuca-Malahat will flip to the Cons. Central Surrey is a riding I would watch as well."?

I was dead wrong thinking the mail in ballots would go against the incumbents.

My family has always been ultra right-wing. My cousin who is equally deranged thinks we should cede BC and Alberta to the USA if Trump wins.

ssiguy · #**929** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 1:42 AM**

Whoever wins, they're going to be governing different BC then they thought just 2 weeks go due to Ott.

JT just did U-turn on immigrtion & due to pushing non-perms/students out, we're expected to see pop decline over the next 2 yers dropping by 80k in 2025 & 2026. This will be most felt in BC/Ont/Que due to being the prime destintions for newcomers. This will effect the housing sector in the 3 provinces but especilly so in BC due to BC being more dependent on it's housing sector for it's economy then the other 2 provinces.

It's high time & it will result in lower rents & more rent units which is wonderful for lower income & younger people who've been screwed over. It, however, will hurt owners & specultors & the entire housing service sector. Pop decline is unchrtered territory for BC & will be very difficult to mnuever thru no mtter who is governing. This is the U-turn this country sorely needs but in the short-term it is going to result in lots of economic problems & pound gov't revenues but over the long-term it will result in higher & more disposible income & will result in shifting from our unproductive housing bsed economy.

logicbomb · #**930** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 2:55 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Whoever wins, they're going to be governing different BC then they thought just 2 weeks go due to Ott.

JT just did U-turn on immigrtion & due to pushing non-perms/students out, we're expected to see pop decline over the next 2 yers dropping by 80k in 2025 & 2026. This will be most felt in BC/Ont/Que due to being the prime destintions for newcomers. This will effect the housing sector in the 3 provinces but especilly so in BC due to BC being more dependent on it's housing sector for it's economy then the other 2 provinces.

It's high time & it will result in lower rents & more rent units which is wonderful for lower income & younger people who've been screwed over. It, however, will hurt owners & specultors & the entire housing service sector. Pop decline is unchrtered territory for BC & will be very difficult to mnuever thru no mtter who is governing. This is the U-turn this country sorely needs but in the short-term it is going to result in lots of economic problems & pound gov't revenues but over the long-term it will result in higher & more disposible income & will result in shifting from our unproductive housing bsed economy.

Devil is in the details. They are curtailing the PR program for foreign applicants but Trudeau and Marc Miller have opened up so many other potential pathways into the country. Most TFW's and International Students will get PR, apply for the PGWP or apply for asylum.

What's insane is there is zero enforcement or ability to forcefully deport people unless the person is convicted of a serious offense. Travellers are blatently overstaying their visas and our country doesn't have the resources or will to deport people.

We also have to remember the projected immigration numbers are still insane when you look at the numbers pre-COVID.

BaddieB · #**931** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 2:56 AM**

Population decline? They only cut the 'rate' of immigration a measly 20%.

GMD · #**932** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 3:17 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaddieB

Population decline? They only cut the 'rate' of immigration a measly 20%.

Because the current volume of temporary residents in the country is so huge, reducing this inflow (as planned), will mean so many more temporary residents leaving than arriving, that this reduction in temporary residents will be larger than the ongoing (reduced by 20% as you say) flow of permanent residents, resulting in a population decline.

Of course, that relies on a number of factors, so the population may not actually decline, but certainly the growth rate will be very low for a couple of years as the pig passes out of the python, so to speak.

Still, in the same way that Vancouver was cushioned from the post-Covid collapse in commercial real estate because our market was so tight prior to Covid, the fact that we are currently buckling under a huge wave of immigrants will likely make it easier to adjust to a couple of years of slow volumes.

Also, interest rates coming down should help a lot to offset this as well.

Finally, completion of LNG Canada, Site C and Broadway Extension will all be big wins for the province, although this also means that the government should be looking at new capital projects to pick up the slack these completions will leave.

BaddieB · #**933** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 3:22 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

I have to wonder if the NDP will look for a speaker from another party to help bolster their majority? Seems like they'd have some potentials who're dissatisfied with a people they find themselves in opposition with.

Anyone have to rundown on the more moderate BCC MLa-elects? All I know is Warbus.

WarrenC12 · #**934** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 7:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

How much of that is actual conspiracy nuts and how much is just bots trying to rile up the conspiracy nuts (like the ones flooding the American election)? I highly doubt we'll see a hoser mob storming the legislature.

It's probably a lot of bots. This is what Russia wants, and the idiots are giving it to them.

WarrenC12 · #**935** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 7:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMD

Because the current volume of temporary residents in the country is so huge, reducing this inflow (as planned), will mean so many more temporary residents leaving than arriving, that this reduction in temporary residents will be larger than the ongoing (reduced by 20% as you say) flow of permanent residents, resulting in a population decline.

The population decline will be very short term, if it even materializes. It will give the housing sector a little breathing room, since it appears impossible to increase supply in any sustained fashion.

ssiguy · #**936** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 9:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaddieB

Population decline? They only cut the 'rate' of immigration a measly 20%.

Immigrtion will drop from 500k in 2025 to 396k & 500k in 2025 to 385k.

The big difference is temp workers/ student numbers will drop {thrown out of the country} by 495k in both 2025 & 2026. Most of these people rent so we will hve more then 900k rent units freed up. It will push up incomes too due to businesses no longer getting to rely on low cost foreign workers.

BaddieB · #**937** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 9:47 PM**

As much as I want you to be right, I am doubtful Trudeau's government will do much to deport people who are overstaying.

casper · #**938** Posted **Oct 27, 2024, 9:59 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaddieB

As much as I want you to be right, I am doubtful Trudeau's government will do much to deport people who are overstaying.

I would question the merits of tossing people out who are established in Canada.

If they are working, paying their bills, we should just leave them be. What do we gain by turning them away after being here. Worse thing is to turn the into criminals by having them overstay their visas.

CanSpice · #**939** Posted **Oct 28, 2024, 3:55 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper

I would question the merits of tossing people out who are established in Canada.

If they are working, paying their bills, we should just leave them be. What do we gain by turning them away after being here. Worse thing is to turn the into criminals by having them overstay their visas.

Tell me again, what does the T stand for in TFW?

casper · #**940** Posted **Oct 28, 2024, 5:07 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Tell me again, what does the T stand for in TFW?

Does it matter what T stands for?

We need to be pragmatic about this. (Some right leaning folks like to use the word common sense). If they are put door roots and productive members of Canadian society why do we care if three/four years earlier they came in on a temporary work visa.