BC Political Discussion: Election 2024 & 43rd Parliament

[SpongeG]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

It's a fight the left have to drop if they want to ever be relevant in a changing country. Far too many people are coming from India and Islamic countries and these sects immediately get very motivated to vote conservatives as they best reflect their viewpoints.

NDP should be a labour first party that takes a hard active stance against drugs and forces help on the addicted or mentally ill. Drop all identity politics.

Many liberal Chinese Born Canadians I know have now become super conservative due to the drugs/crime issues.

but all the social media commentators say that Trudeau has brought all themimmigrants into the country to vote for him. It's a pretty ridiculous argument on their side.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

RE the weather issue, some people blame this flooding this weekend on cloud seeding as they wanted to affect the voting.

Anyway its still too close to call, I heard it could take 12 days to finalize.

Elections BC confirms recounts in two ridings, official result will take another week

Elections BC says votes will be recounted by hand in two ridings where the provincial NDP and Conservative candidates are separated by fewer than 100 votes.

The agency says recounts will take place in the key ridings of Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre as part of the final count between Oct. 26 and 28, meaning the result of British Columbia’s provincial election won’t be official for another week.

The New Democrat candidates are leading by very thin margins in the two ridings, where the result could determine which party forms B.C.’s next government.

...

Elections BC adds the initial count does not reflect about 49,000 absentee and mail-in ballots that will be included in the final count starting next Saturday.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

You are one of the most lefty people on here.

This website skews older and more centre-right

[Migrant_Coconut]

If the lefties say it's too right-leaning, and the righties say it's too left-leaning... maybe it's neither?

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

but all the social media commentators say that Trudeau has brought all the immigrants into the country to vote for him. It's a pretty ridiculous argument on their side.

It's funny because Rustad and Poilievre have been mostly silent when it comes to mass immigration.

The primary reason behind bringing 1.2mil+ people per year is to supress wages and prop up the housing market but the unintended consequences is a changing political landscape in what were left-leaning neighborhoods.

Cons/Libs are ok with this.

The NDP both at the provincial and federal level should be recognizing this as a huge threat.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

And yet he got the most seats and the most votes, even with a unified right. Maybe he's more popular than you'd like to think.

Going back to the original point that Eby barely got more seats and popular vote than a party which fielded some nutty candidates and hadn’t been in the leg since 1978!

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Going back to the original point that Eby barely got more seats and popular vote than a party which fielded some nutty candidates and hadn’t been in the leg since 1978!

Nutty candidates who benefited from confusion with the federal Con brand and the Lib/United implosion. We'll see if they make it past one term once they start mouthing off about Bill Gates' microchips in the Legislature.

Going back to the other original point that without the above two things, the BC Cons would've been history once again.

[BaddieB]

Hold on, shouldn't the electronic counts in Surrey Centre and Juan the Fuca be almost 100% accurate as it is, and the hand recount be less accurate?

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by BaddieB

Hold on, shouldn't the electronic counts in Surrey Centre and Juan the Fuca be almost 100% accurate as it is, and the hand recount be less accurate?

Depends how much faith you have on the new machines. Technically they don't have an option anyway, it's the law that the recount must happen.

[casper]

Originally Posted by BaddieB

Hold on, shouldn't the electronic counts in Surrey Centre and Juan the Fuca be almost 100% accurate as it is, and the hand recount be less accurate?

They have not counted the mail in ballets or the ones where people voted at polling locations outside their ridding.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by casper

They have not counted the mail in ballets or the ones where people voted at polling locations outside their ridding.

Mainstreet polled a 10 point CPBC margin for mail ins.

I know they have swung in favour of left-leaning parties in the past.

My gut says the Juan De Fuca-Malahat will flip to the Cons. Central Surrey is a riding I would watch as well. The gap will be really close as there's now quite a bit investment properties there now with people that did mail in voting or voted outside of the area.

[Migrant_Coconut]

The same Mainstreet that spent the last few months saying the Cons were 2-3 points ahead and that Furstenau would win by 8 points? Yeah, no - they'll need to predict next year's federal election down to the nearest decimal point just to get their street cred back.

[casper]

So it looks like there is some 49,000 mail in ballots to count that were in transit.

It sounds like some of the smaller polling locations are manual and don't have the machines. I guess that makes sense. If your running a polling station in a community with only a few hundred residents the machines are overkill.

- Initial count began after polls closed at 8 p.m. Pacific time on October 19. Results from voting places with tabulators were reported faster than ever before, with first results reported within 15 minutes and over 50% of results within 30 minutes. There were non-technology voting places throughout the province, and results from these manual counts were not reported until later in the evening. Extensive out-of-district results from B.C.’s “vote anywhere” model also took more time to report.

- Elections BC’s goal was to report 50% of preliminary results by 8:30 p.m., which was achieved with 59% of preliminary results reported by that time. By 9 p.m. 85% of preliminary results had been reported. Under the manual counting processes in the 2017 B.C. election, 13.5% of preliminary results had been reported by 9 p.m. on election night.

- Out-of-district ballots take longer to report because election officials must report ballots from multiple electoral districts (in some voting places ballots from over 50 other districts had been cast). On Elections BC’s website, many districts showed their results complete except for one ballot box from Final Voting Day. Before confirming that all ballot boxes from advance voting and final voting have reported, election officials check that the results they have reported are accurate as a quality assurance measure

Final count includes absentee and mail-in ballots that cannot be counted at initial count. The majority of the ballots counted at final count will be mail-in ballots. Packages could be returned up until 8 p.m. Pacific time on October 19, either by mail or in person. Many packages were received close to the deadline and must be counted at final count. Elections BC estimates that approximately 49,000 ballots will be considered at part of final count. A breakdown of the number of ballots being considered at final count by electoral district will be provided before final count starts.

At the conclusion of initial count, voter turnout was estimated to be 57.41% ... This is up from the last B.C. election in 2020, .... 2,037,897 ballots have been cast, the most ever in a provincial election in B.C

https://elections.bc.ca/news/initial-count-complete-final-count-scheduled-for-october-26-to-28/

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

It's funny because Rustad and Poilievre have been mostly silent when it comes to mass immigration.

The primary reason behind bringing 1.2mil+ people per year is to supress wages and prop up the housing market but the unintended consequences is a changing political landscape in what were left-leaning neighborhoods.

Cons/Libs are ok with this.

The NDP both at the provincial and federal level should be recognizing this as a huge threat.

Yes and much of the federal Con vote will be people naively thinking PP’s going to change this. The only party committed to making a difference on immigration is the PPC. Voting for them means stomaching the rest of their platform or viewing it as a protest vote since it doesn't look like they're competitive in any way.

[NewfBC]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Mainstreet polled a 10 point CPBC margin for mail ins.

I know they have swung in favour of left-leaning parties in the past.

My gut says the Juan De Fuca-Malahat will flip to the Cons. Central Surrey is a riding I would watch as well. The gap will be really close as there's now quite a bit investment properties there now with people that did mail in voting or voted outside of the area.

You don't vote in an area because you have an investment property there.. lol. You vote where you live.

Ron.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by NewfBC

You don't vote in an area because you have an investment property there.. lol. You vote where you live.

Ron.

FWIW they may be mistaking provincial election rules for municipal election rules; Municipally you get a vote in every municipality you live in, and an additional vote in every municipality you own property in. (No property taxation without representation I guess?)

But yes, that individual is very incorrect.

[mezzanine]

Justin Mcelroy, on sabbatical from the CBC has a post about the recent election on his substack:

https://justinmcelroy.substack.com/p/10-thoughts-about-the-bc-election

In their first term in office, the NDP did a lot of big things. In their second term, the NDP expanded on a lot of those same things, did a U-Turn on decriminalization and autism funding and a new museum, and otherwise kept it pretty status quo.

If you want, you can write off 2021 and most of 2022 due to the government in pandemic mode and Horgan resigning.

But David Eby spent the last two years trying to show British Columbians that he could run a competent government, eschewing chances to call an election in early 2023 when they were handing out billions of dollars from the previous year’s surplus, or in early 2024 when they faced a divided opposition.

Which was a choice.

So after all that, what specific new accomplishments did he run on?

...

After the last election, the party had a giant mandate and tons of political and fiscal room to maneuver. Today, if they survive, they’re looking it being one or two votes away from an election, big deficits forecasted, a soured mood among the electorate, having already changed course on decriminalization and the carbon tax, waiting for their housing reforms to have a measurable impact on supply, and the strong possibility of a new federal government soon that will be a heck of a lot less simpatico with them.

Nobody knows what will happen next.

But what a difference four years can make.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Statistically, 49,000 ballots works out to 527 per riding... and some of the eleven remaining ones could be decided by 200 votes or less. The next week or so could get really interesting.

[Spr0ckets]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Mainstreet polled a 10 point CPBC margin for mail ins.

I know they have swung in favour of left-leaning parties in the past.

My gut says the Juan De Fuca-Malahat will flip to the Cons. Central Surrey is a riding I would watch as well. The gap will be really close as there's now quite a bit investment properties there now with people that did mail in voting or voted outside of the area.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

The same Mainstreet that spent the last few months saying the Cons were 2-3 points ahead and that Furstenau would win by 8 points? Yeah, no - they'll need to predict next year's federal election down to the nearest decimal point just to get their street cred back.

Mainstreet were saying as recently as last week in their final post-debate poll that the Cons were predicted to win by as much as 5 points.

Whatever happens in the recounts, it's doubtful either side wins by that much of a margin even if it's a clear victory and not the likely agreement majority we're likely to see.

I think it's pretty safe to state that their credibility is in the gutter and what everyone was saying about them attempting to put a thumb on the scale in favor of the Cons with their right-leaning polls has pretty much been proven correct.


It'll be fun to see what a landslide victory they predict for the Federal Conservatives next year.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by NewfBC

You don't vote in an area because you have an investment property there.. lol. You vote where you live.

Ron.

Worded that weird. There's a fair bit of individuals in that area of Vancouver Island who tend to travel this time of year. It's their "principal residence" but they tend to split time abroad. These were the individuals who are being hit hard by AirBnB restrictions.