BC Political Discussion: Election 2024 & 43rd Parliament

[Spr0ckets]

Originally Posted by Snow_Wolf

With some of the flooding that came from the Atmospheric river, I think they should have extended voting times for affected districts.

It would be truly ironic with some absurd levels of cosmic comedy if Climate change denier Rustad and his Conservatives lost out on the chance to form the next government and to lead the province, thanks in large part to an atmospheric river and flood conditions that kept people away from the ballot box,...

Especially in an election where it seems they had a stronger Turn-out-the-vote ground-game on election day, and with the possibility of a post-mortem showing that of those voters who stayed away, majority would have voted Con, and likely tipped this close election in their favour.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Spr0ckets

It would be truly ironic with some absurd levels of cosmic comedy if Climate change denier Rustad and his Conservatives lost out on the chance to form the next government and to lead the province, thanks in large part to an atmospheric river and flood conditions that kept people away from the ballot box,...

Especially in an election where it seems they had a stronger Turn-out-the-vote ground-game on election day, and with the possibility of a post-mortem showing that of those voters who stayed away, majority would have voted Con, and likely tipped this close election in their favour.

The US is obviously not completely analagous to BC, but it's fairly well established that rain reduces Democratic party turnout and actually increases Republican party turnout in the US. Considering that the BC Conservatives are kind of our Republican party this election cycle, rain might have made the difference today favouring the BC Conservatives.

[Spr0ckets]

Originally Posted by chowhou

The US is obviously not completely analagous to BC, but it's fairly well established that rain reduces Democratic party turnout and actually increases Republican party turnout in the US. Considering that the BC Conservatives are kind of our Republican party, rain might have made the difference today favouring the BC Conservatives.

It's also not analogous in the sense that in the US, it's generally well established that younger voters tend to overwhelmingly lean liberal or Democratic party, while older voters tend to vote more Conservative.

We've seen poll after poll showing us that, at least for this particular election, it was decidedly opposite to that here in BC with younger voters tending to favour Cons, while older voters where leaning NDP.

With that in mind, which demographic or crop of voters would have been likely to not want to get off their butts to go vote just because there was heavy rain outside?

Younger voters or older voters?

EDIT:

Also another point of note is that that link or article you linked to was in reference to a mid-term election and not a presidential election.
Republicans have always had an edge in mid-term elections over their Democratic counterparts who tend to show more enthusiasm and turn out more for presidential election cycle.
Furthermore, Democrats also tend to have a considerable advantage when it comes to absentee voting/Vote-by-mail and early voting than Republicans who hold the edge on day-of-election turnout.
That factor alone would negate any advantage that Republicans would get from rain on election day suppressing Democratic voter turnout if Democrats have already banked a considerable vote count before election day and were expected to get lower turnout than their Republican counterparts on the election day.
Not to get too into the weeds of American political system, but Democrats have won 7 of the last 8 presidential election popular vote counts spanning the last 32 years, with Repulicans only winning the White House courtesy of their antiquated Electoral College system - and that includes the 2000 presidential election which Bush Jr. won on Electoral votes but got fewer votes on the popular vote count. So I don't really now the extent to which that "Rainy day" advantage has helped them that much at least in presidential elections where Democrats still outdo them in total vote count most of the time .

So I would take that study with a huge grain of salt.

[Tvisforme]

Sonia Furstenau, during her concession speech Saturday night:

"...It's a strange time in politics when, during an atmospheric river, people come out and vote for a party that's denying the reality of climate change, but hey, this is where we're at..."

[Spr0ckets]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

Sonia Furstenau, during her concession speech Saturday night:

It's the cognitive dissonance that goes with being a conservative voter.
It's practically at super-power levels.

Let's not forget that outside the Metro areas in both the mainland and the Island, you'll essentially find it's a sea of blue in terms of how the vote turned out, but those are also the same regions of the province that are increasingly seeing worse and worse forest fires every summer.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Heres my wish list I want the Greens to push for
1) force through STV or MMP voting so seats will ALWAYS match popular vote
2) Force Eby tp raise Disability incomes to living income
3) KEEP THE CARBON TAX

[mezzanine]

Hard to say what the final result will be as it's so close. I have some further thoughts once results are finalized but:

1) if we do have an NDP minority govt with the greens support, i think the last time around in 2017 went relatively smoothly, so we're not quite in uncharted territory

2) when the greens discuss the confidence and supply agreement, I really hope proportional representation comes up again. FPTP amplifies a lot of problems, whereas PR encourages more voices, would be an 'escape valve' for populism and extremism and the greens would get a lot more ongoing support. Heck, even the BC liberals/united could make a comeback

interesting to note that even with the NDP/green minority govt LNG plans, site C and trans mountain pipeline were never cancelled. Delayed for review, but still proceeded

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Heres my wish list I want the Greens to push for
1) force through STV or MMP voting so seats will ALWAYS match popular vote
2) Force Eby tp raise Disability incomes to living income
3) KEEP THE CARBON TAX

I have no doubt Eby will be a hypocrite and keep the carbon tax even if Poilievre axes the federal one. Eby only floated that as an election ploy to try and get votes.

[MIPS]

Originally Posted by Spr0ckets

Especially in an election where it seems they had a stronger Turn-out-the-vote ground-game on election day, and with the possibility of a post-mortem showing that of those voters who stayed away, majority would have voted Con, and likely tipped this close election in their favour.

It was still something like a 55% turn-out, no?
Laughably bad. More or less half of the province didn't care.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by MIPS

It was still something like a 55% turn-out, no?
Laughably bad. More or less half of the province didn't care.

It's currently at 57.4% turnout of registered voters, with some 'vote anywhere in BC' and mail-in ballots received after October 15th still to be added.

The 2020 election, which didn't see any rainfall records broken, had a 54.5% turnout.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by MIPS

It was still something like a 55% turn-out, no?
Laughably bad. More or less half of the province didn't care.

Used to be above 70% until the 2000s. Political literacy continues to decline despite having more access to information.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Used to be above 70% until the 2000s. Political literacy continues to decline despite having more access to information.

The last time turnout of eligible voters was 70% was in 1983. The turnout this time is probably not that different from most elections in the past 25 years.

1983 70.5%
1986 65.8%
1991 64.0%
1996 59.1%
2001 55.4%
2005 57.8%
2009 51.0%
2013 55.3%
2017 57.7%
2020 51.8%

Source BC Elections

[Tvisforme]

Turnout has declined since the turn of the century, although there was an upward trend following the low in 2009:

1996 General Election - 71.50%
2001 General Election - 70.95%
2005 General Election - 62.36%
2009 General Election - 55.14%
2013 General Election - 57.10%
2017 General Election - 61.18%
2020 General Election - 53.86%

The low turnout in 2020 is generally attributed to it being held during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Elections BC: Voter Turnout (registered voters)

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I have no doubt Eby will be a hypocrite and keep the carbon tax even if Poilievre axes the federal one. Eby only floated that as an election ploy to try and get votes.

It will be a point of negotiation with the Green Party. I can't see it being acceptable to the Greens and I don't think it is a priority for the NDP.

The carbon tax is here to stay.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The last time turnout was 70% was in 1983...

Just wondering where you sourced this from. I'll revise my post if you have a more reliable source, but the stats I used are from Elections BC.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

Just wondering where you sourced this from. I'll revise my post if you have a more reliable source, but the stats I used are from Elections BC.

So were mine. I think it depends on whether it's a percentage of eligible voters, or registered voters. I was looking at eligible voters, you were quoting numbers for registered voters, so we were both correct. There's a separate debate about the population that don't register to vote, although that's not as many as it used to be. I've updated my post and added a link to the data to acknowledge what it shows.

Having noted that, I realized I don't know what the number of eligible voters was in this election, so my 57% calculation will be too high. If 96% of eligible voters registered, as in 2020, it would be closer to a 54% of eligible voters, and 57% of registered voters.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

If seats hold, it's another GreeNDP government. BC will swing left after tonight, not the result I wanted

You are one of the most lefty people on here.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by chowhou

If it's a GreeNDP government it's not necessarily a swing left; it's a swing Green. Don't assume the Greens are strictly further left than the NDP. Green politics and conservation come from an inherently conservative place; Things should stay the same as they are/should go back to what they were before.

Greens are against "high pace" housing development and greens are against transit development. Pretty much my nightmare.

If you've been listening to this version of the Greens, they aren't Andrew Weaver anymore. They are solid left.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

NDP has a lot of soul searching to do over wtf happened to the south asian vote

SOGI and drug decrim.

[BaddieB]

People were expecting the next government to swing left, but instead it swung more left :/

Hoping tbe next NDP government gets to keep their good policies and introduce some good green ones, instead of adopting bad green policies like vacancy control and more decriminalization.