Canada's 4th city

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I think Calgary's 4th place will be further solidified in the coming years and not just due to it's explosive population growth. Ottawa is a political centre and therefore much of it's influence is totally dependent upon which party is in power. Trudeau's increase in the civil service by a whopping 40% in 8 years has obviously helped Ottawa and his general antipathy towards Alberta and the overall oil/gas sector has inhibited Calgary & Edmonton. Needless to say, with Trudeau being given the boot {God willing} and with PP the heir apparent, that is going to change dramatically.

The first thing PP is going to do to try to bring some kind of sanity back to the books is make massive cuts to the civil service. When gov't, especially Conservative, ones make cuts it is very much centered around the actually bureaucracy and try to instill as little damage as possible in actual local services. The Tories have very little support in Ottawa but local services hurt every part of the country including Conservative strongholds and flip ridings. People care about local service but no one gives a damn about the fat cats in Ottawa. This means a vastly disproportionate amount of these cuts are going to take place in Ottawa as well as all the spin-off jobs that benefit from Ottawa's largess.

Conversely, PP will bring in policies that emphasis oil/gas as well as general natural resource extraction/development and Calgary is the nation's economic centre for this potent part of the economy.

Oil/gas/resources are both the strength and Achilles Heel of Calgary's economy and ditto the government for Ottawa and things are about to take a huge swing in Calgary's favour much to the detriment of Ottawa.

Calgary is the business centre of the Western provinces so I do agree that the city is in 4th place in most ways. But for most people East of Manitoba, Calgary isn't seen as important as Ottawa for obvious reasons.

As for PP reducing the number of federal public servants, I don't know what his plans are because he really hasn't told us his plans. If there is any indication, the Harper government focused on higher up people and positions that they thought weren't needed for everyday operations. I had managers who were laid off back in 2008-2012 and it was bittersweet because some of the really good ones were let go but some really bad ones were as well. But they really didn't affect front-line operations. I do know that a LOT of public servants have received promotions during and after the pandemic that in my opinion weren't really necessary. And there are those in term positions who will likely not be returning once at the end.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I was going by this:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...ions_in_Canada

Montreal ~ 4.3M
Vancouver ~ 2.64M

So about 38% smaller. Not 50%. Fair.

I think having a gap that's more than the size of Ottawa-Gatineau puts Montreal in a different league. Vancouver is closer in size to Calgary than it is to Montreal. And that's just population. We're not even looking at economic and cultural relevance, of which Montreal is unquestionably in another league than Vancouver.

Montreal is by far the urban cultural capital of Canada.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I was going by this:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...ions_in_Canada

Montreal ~ 4.3M
Vancouver ~ 2.64M

So about 38% smaller. Not 50%. Fair.

I think having a gap that's more than the size of Ottawa-Gatineau puts Montreal in a different league. Vancouver is closer in size to Calgary than it is to Montreal. And that's just population. We're not even looking at economic and cultural relevance, of which Montreal is unquestionably in another league than Vancouver.

I suppose I was getting the two threads mixed up and assuming we were using the new numbers that just came out. What just came out is the following:

1) Toronto ON - 6,804,847
2) Montreal QC - 4,502,177
3) Vancouver BC - 2,971,853

Which puts vancouver about 34% smaller.

And given Greater Montreal's ludacris area of essentially 100km across in diameter the equivalent metro Vancouver population would be roughly 3.3 million, making it only about 25% smaller than Montreal. Getting pretty close to being in similar buckets, certainly much closer than the gaps between Montreal to Toronto and Vancouver to Cal/Edm/Ott.

I bet in 15 years we'll have Toronto in another stratosphere (already is), Montreal and Vancouver together in a second tranche, Calgary edging out in its own third tranche and Ottawa and Edmonton in a 4th. But only time will tell.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

And given Greater Montreal's ludacris area of essentially 100km across in diameter the equivalent metro Vancouver population would be roughly 3.3 million, making it only about 25% smaller than Montreal.

That's the point of a CMA. Communities that have functional economic relationships (like a significant percentage of commuters) are grouped together. The Montreal area has those. The Lower Mainland doesn't (to the same extent). By your definition, Toronto could be 9M.

And even with your numbers, where Vancouver is ahead of Calgary by 1.2M, Montreal is ahead of Vancouver by a gap large enough to fit Ottawa-Gatineau.

[LeftCoaster]

Abbotsford is functionally a part of the Vancouver Metro region, it just happens to be its own CMA. Canada doesn't combine CMAs once formed, so it never will be a part of Vancouver no matter how intertwined they functionally are.

And I agree, in my opinion Toronto does function as a metro of 9 million. It's a beast.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I bet in 15 years we'll have Toronto in another stratosphere (already is), Montreal and Vancouver together in a second tranche, Calgary edging out in its own third tranche and Ottawa and Edmonton in a 4th. But only time will tell.

Unless something really changes with the housing situation in Vancouver, it's entirely possible that Vancouver stagnates for 15 years while Montreal pulls further ahead and Calgary closes the gap from behind. As it stands, I struggle to see why any young person who isn't inheriting would bother staying in Vancouver. Toronto housing prices with Montreal wages. Meanwhile Calgary is more like Toronto wages with Montreal housing prices. I realize that the BC government is the most progressive on housing right now. But it's going to take decades of sustained work to undo the damage. Hard to say if this momentum is sustainable.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Calgary is the business centre of the Western provinces so I do agree that the city is in 4th place in most ways.

Maybe of the Prairie provinces but Vancouver tops it for Western provinces.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Unless something really changes with the housing situation in Vancouver, it's entirely possible that Vancouver stagnates for 15 years while Montreal pulls ahead and Calgary closes the gap from behind. As it stands, I struggle to see why any young people who isn't inheriting would bother staying in Vancouver. Toronto housing prices with Montreal wages. Meanwhile Calgary is more like Toronto wages with Montreal housing prices. I realize that the BC government is the most progressive on housing right now. But it's going to take decades of sustained work to undo the damage. Hard to say if this momentum is sustainable.

Honestly I'd agree with you on the logic of it, but the housing situation in Vancouver has been a mess for decades, and while its a bit worse today, its a bit worse everywhere these days and yet Vancouver keeps chugging along, defying logic, being the second highest growth rate of major cities in Canada, only behind Calgary.

Vancouver also had an all time high of housing starts last year, so that growth is getting some room to continue.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Unless something really changes with the housing situation in Vancouver, it's entirely possible that Vancouver stagnates for 15 years while Montreal pulls further ahead and Calgary closes the gap from behind. As it stands, I struggle to see why any young person who isn't inheriting would bother staying in Vancouver. Toronto housing prices with Montreal wages. Meanwhile Calgary is more like Toronto wages with Montreal housing prices. I realize that the BC government is the most progressive on housing right now. But it's going to take decades of sustained work to undo the damage. Hard to say if this momentum is sustainable.

There has been sweeping land use policy changes in all of Metro Vancouver. Every housing lot in Metro Vancouver is eligible for multiplexes (up to 6 units) with increased density. Along with high density allowed around all Skytrain stations. You would think that would make a huge dent.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Abbotsford is functionally a part of the Vancouver Metro region, it just happens to be its own CMA. Canada doesn't combine CMAs once formed, so it never will be a part of Vancouver no matter how intertwined they functionally are.

And I agree, in my opinion Toronto does function as a metro of 9 million. It's a beast.

I do wonder, as we get more communities pushing the 1M point, and especially as we have more CMAs basically being joined at the hip. (Toronto has a number of them, but Vancouver has some as well, and there will be more and more in the future), if Stats Can will eventually have to make a "SuperCMA" tier that can combine CMAs together to better reflect interconnected CMA situations.

The Golden Horseshoe, the Lower Mainland and the Montreal area (Possibly the Ottawa-Montreal-QC region in total) would all be viable "SuperCMA"s as is, and the Edmonton-Calgary corridor is rapidly approaching that point too.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

How is Vancouver @ 3 million "almost half" of Montreal at 4 million?

Montreal and Vancouver are getting more and more close to being a clump of the number 2 and 3 cities separated by a big gulf from Toronto and from numbers 3-6.

Montreal is now closer to 5 million than it is to 4M. Based on the numbers released this week, we can reasonably assume that Vancouver is closing in on 3.1M and Montreal somewhere in the 4.63M range.

And just as the Lower Mainland US MSA analogy can be applied to Vancouver to push it to 3.3-3.4M, there are several cities between 50-100k in Montreal's orbit that are not part of its CMA (Granby, Ste Hyacinthe, Sorel-Tracy, Salaberry-de-Valleyfield). It's MSA equivalent would be well over 5M by now. Still a gap there roughly equivalent to 50% of Vancouver's population.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Loco101

As for PP reducing the number of federal public servants, I don't know what his plans are because he really hasn't told us his plans. If there is any indication, the Harper government focused on higher up people and positions that they thought weren't needed for everyday operations. I had managers who were laid off back in 2008-2012 and it was bittersweet because some of the really good ones were let go but some really bad ones were as well. But they really didn't affect front-line operations. I do know that a LOT of public servants have received promotions during and after the pandemic that in my opinion weren't really necessary. And there are those in term positions who will likely not be returning once at the end.

Sums it up pretty well. Cons cut with a chainsaw, not a surgical knife. Absolutely, there needs to be some cuts to Government operations and waste, but the Cons way is not the right way. No current political Party has the right approach to this particular question.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Loco101

As for PP reducing the number of federal public servants, I don't know what his plans are because he really hasn't told us his plans. If there is any indication, the Harper government focused on higher up people and positions that they thought weren't needed for everyday operations. I had managers who were laid off back in 2008-2012 and it was bittersweet because some of the really good ones were let go but some really bad ones were as well. But they really didn't affect front-line operations. I do know that a LOT of public servants have received promotions during and after the pandemic that in my opinion weren't really necessary. And there are those in term positions who will likely not be returning once at the end.

I don't think the Harper model applies this time. A lot of the growth in the PS hasn't been in management. And there's been substantial growth in the NCR. Not to mention that Ottawa seems to be home to a substantial amount of PS resistance to RTO (which is something the Conservatives are absolutely pushing for). I am predicting at least 20k job cuts in Ottawa itself. Possibly 30k. Ottawa. I don't think Ottawa's population growth is going to be keeping up with Calgary and Edmonton post-2025.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I don't think the Harper model applies this time. A lot of the growth in the PS hasn't been in management. And there's been substantial growth in the NCR. Not to mention that Ottawa seems to be home to a substantial amount of PS resistance to RTO (which is something the Conservatives are absolutely pushing for). I am predicting at least 20k job cuts in Ottawa itself. Possibly 30k. Ottawa. I don't think Ottawa's population growth is going to be keeping up with Calgary and Edmonton post-2025.

100% agree. I would even go as high as 40k jobs cut in Ottawa assuming 80k job cuts and half in Ottawa. I hear some say that shouldn't impact population by 40k as most will stay in Ottawa retire or work elsewhere. I think that's questionable and it could be even worse as 40k less employed people means a few less restaurants, realtors etc in business.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

100% agree. I would even go as high as 40k jobs cut in Ottawa assuming 80k job cuts and half in Ottawa. I hear some say that shouldn't impact population by 40k as most will stay in Ottawa retire or work elsewhere. I think that's questionable and it could be even worse as 40k less employed people means a few less restaurants, realtors etc in business.

Note that "job cuts" aren't necessarily all people losing their jobs and having to go out and find another one. Probably at least half or more will be "attrition" so basically jobs that weren't filled and are simply eliminated, or people retiring and going on the pension plan instead of the payroll.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Honestly I'd agree with you on the logic of it, but the housing situation in Vancouver has been a mess for decades, and while its a bit worse today, its a bit worse everywhere these days and yet Vancouver keeps chugging along, defying logic, being the second highest growth rate of major cities in Canada, only behind Calgary.

Vancouver also had an all time high of housing starts last year, so that growth is getting some room to continue.

Montreal is adding more people per year than Vancouver, in other words the population gap between the two is increasing every passing year. i.e. Montreal is growing and leaving Vancouver behind.

Growth rates are medieval thinking; I guess our homo sapiens brains are basically wired to assume that everyone stays their entire life in the same village in which they were born and population growth only comes from the rate at which the locals are having babies.

The only useful use of growth rate these days (in a country like Canada) is to measure approximate infrastructure strain.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

100% agree. I would even go as high as 40k jobs cut in Ottawa assuming 80k job cuts and half in Ottawa. I hear some say that shouldn't impact population by 40k as most will stay in Ottawa retire or work elsewhere. I think that's questionable and it could be even worse as 40k less employed people means a few less restaurants, realtors etc in business.

40k is very unlikely. Since 2015, the PS has added ~41k jobs in the NCR. I don't think we're going back to 2015 numbers. I think 20-30k in Ottawa is highly likely over their first term.

https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-bo...ic-region.html

Originally Posted by Acajack

Note that "job cuts" aren't necessarily all people losing their jobs and having to go out and find another one. Probably at least half or more will be "attrition" so basically jobs that weren't filled and are simply eliminated, or people retiring and going on the pension plan instead of the payroll.

True. But relevant to this discussion is that those level of job cuts is going to basically kill growth in Ottawa. It will keep the local unemployment rate elevated for years. Ottawa could end up firmly in sixth place, behind Edmonton in CMA size. Though, I'd still say in terms of national relevance Ottawa > Edmonton.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

True. But relevant to this discussion is that those level of job cuts is going to basically kill growth in Ottawa. It will keep the local unemployment rate elevated for years. Ottawa could end up firmly in sixth place, behind Edmonton in CMA size. Though, I'd still say in terms of national relevance Ottawa > Edmonton.

Correct. In there there will be people losing their jobs and of course people *not* being hired at the usual clip for the feds, so it will still be a pretty painful time for Ottawa(-Gatineau).

[niwell]

While significant, I don't necessarily think 20-30k job cuts in Ottawa would be disastrous. Depends on how they do it of course. As Acajack mentioned above a pretty big chunk could be done through a mix of retirement packages, hiring freeze with no new positions filled and non-renewal of contract positions. Unionized positions with seniority would presumably have a period of time to try and find something else within the organization before becoming jobless.

This certainly isn't a guarantee but I've seen it happen in the Ontario Public Service both under Wynne and Ford. It's not *that* impactful internally but certainly sucked for those trying to get in early in their career. Of course the OPS never had anything close to the bloat that currently exists in the Federal PS and always ran relatively lean compared to other Provinces. I'd expect much more of an impact in a place like Ottawa but probably nowhere near as bad as oil crashes in Calgary.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by lio45

The only useful use of growth rate these days (in a country like Canada) is to measure approximate infrastructure strain.

Ahem, you mean infrastructure efficiency.

Indeed, Canadian infrastructure was extremely underused previously. A hospital at 120% capacity is more efficient use of said hospital than one at 105%. Single family suburban homes that house multiple families are more efficient. Food banks that served only a handful of people previously now are more efficient assembly lines. Traffic jams using all lanes of the 401 at all hours of the day, not just rush hour. IRCC bureaucrats furiously approving visas, the per employee metrics through the roof.

Look at the efficiency! The high density feedlot model of life! Efficient. Like Venice cranking another cruise ship of tourists through the city, the Tim’s multi-drive through genius, EMS attendants consistently busy picking up ODs - no downtime for them! Maximum efficiency!