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  #1  
Old Posted Sep 13, 2018, 12:27 AM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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Projects That Will Be Cancelled in the New Reality

Despite the shiny presentation centres, it's clear the housing market is in a serious correction. What projects do you think will be cancelled or put on hold indefinitely as the new reality sinks in?

My top picks:
-Little Mountain (Holborn couldn't even get it going when times were good)
-Oakridge - the demographic it was aimed at is finding it difficult to offshore the money to buy.
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  #2  
Old Posted Sep 13, 2018, 1:19 AM
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In Burnaby:

Some of the towers along Beresford and most of the buildings towards Imperial won't go beyond a sketch anytime soon.

There'll be delays on the next phases at Brentwood, Lougheed and Southgate.
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  #3  
Old Posted Sep 13, 2018, 4:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Despite the shiny presentation centres, it's clear the housing market is in a serious correction. What projects do you think will be cancelled or put on hold indefinitely as the new reality sinks in?

My top picks:
-Little Mountain (Holborn couldn't even get it going when times were good)
-Oakridge - the demographic it was aimed at is finding it difficult to offshore the money to buy.
Oak ridge is being backed by Quadreal (aka bc pension plans). I don’t think the government will let something upset their own pensions. Hell imagine the votes they may lose from teachers to nurses if there own real estate measures kill their pensions.
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  #4  
Old Posted Sep 13, 2018, 4:27 PM
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Originally Posted by misher View Post
Oak ridge is being backed by Quadreal (aka bc pension plans). I don’t think the government will let something upset their own pensions. Hell imagine the votes they may lose from teachers to nurses if there own real estate measures kill their pensions.
Except they were literally elected to create this change and the majority still supports it. So keep pissing in the wind...
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  #5  
Old Posted Sep 13, 2018, 4:33 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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Oak ridge is being backed by Quadreal (aka bc pension plans). I don’t think the government will let something upset their own pensions. Hell imagine the votes they may lose from teachers to nurses if there own real estate measures kill their pensions.
Huh? If the project gets delayed Quadreal will look somewhere else for investments and come back to this one later. It's not like they've committed billions to it. Better to halt now than start building something that won't sell or generate lease income.
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  #6  
Old Posted Sep 13, 2018, 5:31 PM
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Hate to say it but the Butterfly tower might be cancelled.

I am hoping for Beach Crescent though only because I greedily want a redesign.

Last edited by scryer; Sep 13, 2018 at 6:05 PM.
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  #7  
Old Posted Sep 13, 2018, 7:16 PM
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Hate to say it but the Butterfly tower might be cancelled.

I am hoping for Beach Crescent though only because I greedily want a redesign.
Haven't enough of the Butterfly units been presold to proceed? I can definitely see the Pinnacle project getting deferred though.
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  #8  
Old Posted Sep 13, 2018, 11:54 PM
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Butterfly is a go...

I doubt anything will get cancelled, just pushed out.

There will still be demand year in and year out, and as the pace of constitutions slows costs will come down and so will prices, then we'll be in this cycle all over again.
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  #9  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2018, 12:50 AM
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Butterfly is a go...

I doubt anything will get cancelled, just pushed out.

There will still be demand year in and year out, and as the pace of constitutions slows costs will come down and so will prices, then we'll be in this cycle all over again.
It depends on whether one believes the Chinese money train will pull into the station again. Personally I tend to think that one time aberration is over, certainly to the degree of 2005-2017. There's too much awareness of it now, and pressure on politicians to stop it. The Chinese economy's huge yearly growth figures are slowing, and Trump may slow that even further. Even if Chinese controls on capital flight were relaxed internally, I doubt we would return to the situation of five years ago. Add into that rising interest rates in general and the perception Vancouver is overvalued.

Remember at the end of the 1980's people were convinced Japan's real estate buying spree would go on forever.
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  #10  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2018, 3:38 AM
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Butterfly will go ahead. So will Oakridge. Oakridge is a huge multi phase project spanning over a decade, it won't be stopped due to the government that is currently in power. We will see a more then one election before it's completed and I'm sure at least one change in government.
I do expect several projects will get curtailed and some possibly redrawn to different standards similar to what we saw happen in 2008.
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  #11  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2018, 4:19 AM
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Remember at the end of the 1980's people were convinced Japan's real estate buying spree would go on forever.
Market slowdown =/= recession. We're hardly going to see something like Oakridge just flat-out cancelled.
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  #12  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2018, 5:34 AM
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Market slowdown =/= recession. We're hardly going to see something like Oakridge just flat-out cancelled.
Depends if NDP are in again? Lol
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  #13  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2018, 6:19 PM
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It depends on whether one believes the Chinese money train will pull into the station again. Personally I tend to think that one time aberration is over, certainly to the degree of 2005-2017. There's too much awareness of it now, and pressure on politicians to stop it. The Chinese economy's huge yearly growth figures are slowing, and Trump may slow that even further. Even if Chinese controls on capital flight were relaxed internally, I doubt we would return to the situation of five years ago. Add into that rising interest rates in general and the perception Vancouver is overvalued.

Remember at the end of the 1980's people were convinced Japan's real estate buying spree would go on forever.
People are still going to move to Vancouver and need a place to live.

We build housing for more than just Chinese capital.
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  #14  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2018, 12:22 PM
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I think many which haven't made it to the pre-sale phase will be cancelled or seriously re-work to more modest offerings.

Projects which involve large demos could be cancelled such as the Big Thom proposal at Bidwell and Alberni which involves the demo of a 70's high-rise or the twin towers proposed for the 1400 block of Alberni. Anthem is likely re-working their vision for the 1600 block of Georgia as well.

The issue with most of these is that they were targeting off-shore buyers with uber-luxury $2500/sf+ units. This is the segment that's hurting most in the market at the moment. If some of these projects do proceed I suspect they'll be down-gauged to smaller more modest units or market-rentals.
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  #15  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2018, 2:11 PM
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The New Reality sounds rather melodramatic, I have to say.

Cyclic and bubbly markets have always been the reality, haven't they?
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  #16  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2018, 7:42 PM
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The New Reality sounds rather melodramatic, I have to say.

Cyclic and bubbly markets have always been the reality, haven't they?
Yes, but keep in mind someone posting here now and is 21 year old "came of age" during the 8-10 year period when rising amounts of Chinese money was flooding into Vancouver. To them that is the "normal".

My hypothesis is that particular set of circumstances won't be repeated. It won't just pick up where it left off if the NDP were voted out next year.

Of course construction won't stop, but land prices will have to fall to make projects viable for a more local market.
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  #17  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2018, 2:57 PM
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^^^^^

Not to mention the Provincial and Municipal governments are both talking about all the housing they will build. It might not be some of the specific projects on the drawing board now, but there will continue to be a bunch of residential construction.
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  #18  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2018, 6:08 PM
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^^^^^

Not to mention the Provincial and Municipal governments are both talking about all the housing they will build. It might not be some of the specific projects on the drawing board now, but there will continue to be a bunch of residential construction.
Its funny how they say they will build much more then go on to trash developers, investors, and the real estate market that are funding/doing/pushing the building. Kind of feels like our politicians are two faced.
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  #19  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2018, 6:34 PM
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Its funny how they say they will build much more then go on to trash developers, investors, and the real estate market that are funding/doing/pushing the building. Kind of feels like our politicians are two faced.
Please let me know who is "trashing developers" and where they are making these statements?

The RE Agent industry has shown itself to be in serious need of regulation.
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  #20  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2018, 6:48 PM
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Please let me know who is "trashing developers" and where they are making these statements?

The RE Agent industry has shown itself to be in serious need of regulation.
The RE industry requires an overhaul of its education system. It should be a 3-4 year graduate school program same as medical and law instead of a 2 month one, but its regulation is extremely strict.

The RE industry is one of the most regulated industries in BC considering it only take two months of an online course to get licensed. There is extremely low amounts of education needed to get your license and when you start working you'll realize your education was extremely lacking. You have no idea what kind of oversight licensees have they are treated as if they are real estate lawyers after 2 months of online school and expected to know everything. Every complaint is taken very seriously and licensees are obligated to act on the orders of their client. There are very few cases of Realtors acting against their clients wishes. Unlike the Law Society which is made up of lawyers, and College of Physicans which is mostly doctors, the Real Estate Council is made up of people outside the industry who are clueless about the realities and is controlled by the BC government. https://www.recbc.ca/about/council-members.html You try to report a doctor or lawyer and you will fighting an uphill battle against an organization that defends its own. You try to report a real estate licensee? Hes assumed guilty until proven innocent. The Real Estate Council exists to discipline licenses not defend them. Can you imagine how many shady lawyers and doctors there are? People focus on realtors because real estate prices are high and they blame people who work in real estate.

And a reminder that everyone focuses on realtors but licensees make up a bunch of industries including rental managers, commercial managers, residential managers, etc. Of course everyone sees some realtors in luxury cars and tries their best to punish all licenses most of whom get paid crap. Most licensees work weekends and nights for salaries between $15-25 a hour and unlike lawyers or doctors they don't charge by the hour. The regulation, stress, and low wages are so bad that there is a severe shortage of licenses in rental, commercial, and residential management. No one wants to do it https://www.richmond-news.com/real-e...ing-1.23167187

In regards to how the NDP is being two faced,

Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkonson had this to say:

Quote:
Wilkinson's open letter on housing
To whom it may concern:

Housing is a fundamental need in our society, and we know that currently, housing is unaffordable for many British Columbians. We need clear and easily understood policies at all levels of government that help, not hinder, new housing development for all British Columbians.

The government has made grand promises to build more affordable housing, yet their actions so far will limit new development and drive away investment capital from B.C. Drastically increasing taxes on home sales and new construction will not result in more housing for people who need it right now. The current government thinks they can ignore market trends and solve the housing crisis on their own, without partnerships with builders and investors.

The NDP’s plan is to build 1700 units over the next year. Not only is this more than 80,000 short of their campaign promise, it does not even approach what is necessary to increase availability and reduce prices. When we recognize that B.C.’s population grows by 60,000 people per year, we can see this NDP plan is hopelessly out of touch with reality.

Building more supply is essential to ensure that all British Columbians have access to affordable housing. As noted by industry, the multiple tax measures introduced by this government will increase the costs of building residential homes, and those costs will be passed on to property purchasers and their tenants.

The increased Property Transfer Tax is applied at each point of the development process and will be ultimately paid by home buyers. Similarly, the increased “School” Property Tax as applied annually will add even greater costs to residential housing and negatively impact housing affordability. Finally, the yet-to-be-clarified “Speculation” Tax will not even target speculators. In its current form it will focus on property owners, builders, British Columbian homeowners, out-of-province vacationers, and foreign owners alike. The lack of detail on this tax makes it difficult to determine the full scope of its impact, other than the fact that it will cost everyone more, putting the construction and tourism industries at risk.

It isn’t just affordable housing that is put at risk by the NDP’s reckless new taxes. Over 230,000 families in BC will have a meal on their table tonight thanks to the construction industry. The GDP directly generated by the industry is $23 billion. From this, the province receives $1.2 billion in tax revenues that help pay for new schools and medical care.

Increasing supply is the only way we can make sure everyone is B.C. has a decent place to live. The total of new, unsold, multi-family homes for sale across Metro Vancouver, has fallen 74% from 2013.

The government needs to work with industry to ensure that the number of new homes rises every year. However, the current NDP government seems to be doing what they can to unfairly target builders and drastically shrink housing supply.

There is clearly an affordability issue in British Columbia. We need to work together to fix it. However, workable solutions do not include making our province an unattractive place to invest and build. Ownership does not always mean wealth, and sweeping tax changes targeting people who are perceived as wealthy can have major unintended consequences on investments, on jobs and on everyone’s way of life. This is why the NDP need to completely overhaul their property tax package, and get ready to accommodate 60,000 new British Columbians every year.

Sincerely yours,

Andrew Wilkinson

Leader, BC Liberal Official Opposition

MLA, Vancouver – Quilchena
Just to add to this cause I know many will dismiss what I say and accuse me of being a Realtor. I'm not a Realtor. If you have any family or friends who are a licensee they will confirm what I have said.

Last edited by misher; Sep 14, 2018 at 7:06 PM.
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