When did it become apparent that Toronto would surpass Montreal...

[Docere]

...as the country's leading population, financial, cultural centre?

The narrative is the BQ came to power in 1976 the anglos and HQs left and then Toronto "suddenly" surpassed Montreal as the leading city.

But they were very close in size through the 20th century and a lot of the factors were in place well before the 1970s.

I believe Toronto matched Montreal for headquarters by the 1950s, maybe even earlier.

The St. Lawrence Seaway completion in 1959 benefitted Toronto.

When John Porter was writing the Vertical Mosaic (early 1960s), economic elite seemed evenly split between Toronto and Montreal.

[Architype]

It's even apparent that Vancouver may one day surpass Montreal, at least in some ways, some of the immigration stats suggest that this is possible.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail.../t001b-eng.htm

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Architype

It's even apparent that Vancouver may one day surpass Montreal, at least in some ways, some of the immigration stats suggest that this is possible.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail.../t001b-eng.htm

Anything is possible of course, though this would be extremely unlikely at any point in the foreseeable future.

Montreal has a substantial lead, plus there have been recent periods where Montreal has taken in more immigrants in sheer numbers than Vancouver has.

Montreal would have to literally start emptying out for that to happen. Even under a slow-growing Montreal vs fast-growing Vancouver scenario, it would still take an extremely long time for Vancouver to overtake Montreal.

It's even more likely (though still unlikely) that Vancouver might start emptying out slightly due to affordability issues than Montreal will empty out due to some other factor.

[hipster duck]

Strangely, the era where Montreal really felt head and shoulders above Toronto was in the early 1960s, which is, of course, when Toronto was poised to overtake Montreal.

This would have been the era of the great Montreal skyscrapers like PVM, Tour de la Bourse, and CIBC as well as the construction of the metro, which would have been space age compared to the tin cans that were running under Yonge Street.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Strangely, the era where Montreal really felt head and shoulders above Toronto was in the early 1960s, which is, of course, when Toronto was poised to overtake Montreal.

This would have been the era of the great Montreal skyscrapers like PVM, Tour de la Bourse, and CIBC as well as the construction of the metro, which would have been space age compared to the tin cans that were running under Yonge Street.

It almost acts as a bit of a warning - Montreal was at its relative economic zenith (socio-cultural... not-so-much) when its rival passed it. It's not the first city to fall from apparent grace when it appeared so outwardly successful.

I wasn't around for Expo or the Olympics but I can understand the nostalgia for those times within my linguistic cohort. That being said, it is very very apparent that today's Montreal is a far superior city than yesterday's by almost every metric.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Zeej

It almost acts as a bit of a warning - Montreal was at its relative economic zenith (socio-cultural... not-so-much) when its rival passed it. It's not the first city to fall from apparent grace when it appeared so outwardly successful.

I wasn't around for Expo or the Olympics but I can understand the nostalgia for those times within my linguistic cohort. That being said, it is very very apparent that today's Montreal is a far superior city than yesterday's by almost every metric.

As I often like to say: for a far greater share of its resident population.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Anything is possible of course, though this would be extremely unlikely at any point in the foreseeable future.

Montreal has a substantial lead, plus there have been recent periods where Montreal has taken in more immigrants in sheer numbers than Vancouver has.

Montreal would have to literally start emptying out for that to happen. Even under a slow-growing Montreal vs fast-growing Vancouver scenario, it would still take an extremely long time for Vancouver to overtake Montreal.

It's even more likely (though still unlikely) that Vancouver might start emptying out slightly due to affordability issues than Montreal will empty out due to some other factor.

It could happen given a long time, even though Vancouver has more physical constraints which determine it's development.

Maybe in 2076? Here is a most convenient graph.


https://archive.canadianbusiness.com...treal-in-size/

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Architype

It could happen given a long time, even though Vancouver has more physical constraints which determine it's development.

Maybe in 2076? Here is a most convenient graph.


https://archive.canadianbusiness.com...treal-in-size/

From 2013. Since that time, there were periods where Montreal's percentage growth outpaced Vancouver's, and now since around the time of the pandemic I believe Vancouver has been growing faster in percentage terms for a couple of years.

How often has Vancouver added more people in sheer numbers than Montreal? I don't have those stats, but this would be a better indicator of the likelihood of one city passing another at some point.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by Acajack

From 2013. Since that time, there were periods where Montreal's percentage growth outpaced Vancouver's, and now since around the time of the pandemic I believe Vancouver has been growing faster in percentage terms for a couple of years.

How often has Vancouver added more people in sheer numbers than Montreal? I don't have those stats, but this would be a better indicator of the likelihood of one city passing another at some point.

But you're missing context. Vancouver is Canada's best city, apparently, so of course it will exceed Montreal (or any other place Canada) in all aspects. This idea appears regularly in the weather thread... get with the program!

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by Architype

It could happen given a long time, even though Vancouver has more physical constraints which determine it's development.

Maybe in 2076? Here is a most convenient graph.


https://archive.canadianbusiness.com...treal-in-size/

The graph is cute but such long term projections are almost always wrong. Remember, Montreal was supposed to have 7M people... in the year 2000. How did that go?

Here is the article that the graph came from: https://archive.canadianbusiness.com...treal-in-size/

The dude applied the growth rates from the latest census at the time (2016) in perpetuity.

I have a hard time imagining an 8.8M Vancouver or an 8.2M Montreal. This also assumes that the government's current immigration policies will continue for the next 40 years. Like... do the citizens of Greater Vancouver want to become a megacity (approaching the 10M threshold)?

It should be pointed out that pre-covid Montreal was still adding more people than Vancouver, widening the gap. We've yet to really see how population trends in Canada will settle post-covid.

Personally, I don't see Vancouver surpassing Montreal. Extraordinary circumstances would be necessary.

Can we talk about when Calgary will surpass Vancouver (and then of course, Montreal) though?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Zeej

The graph is cute but such long term projections are almost always wrong. Remember, Montreal was supposed to have 7M people... in the year 2000. How did that go?

I have a hard time imagining an 8.8M Vancouver or an 8.2M Montreal. This also assumes that the government's current immigration policies will continue for the next 40 years. Like... do the citizens of Greater Vancouver want to become a megacity (approaching the 10M threshold)?

It should be pointed out that pre-covid Montreal was still adding more people than Vancouver, widening the gap. We've yet to really see how population trends in Canada will settle post-covid.

Personally, I don't see Vancouver surpassing Montreal. Extraordinary circumstances would be necessary.

Can we talk about when Calgary will surpass Vancouver (and then of, course Montreal) though?

Most likely demographic "overtakings" in Canada:

City of Surrey overtaking City of Vancouver

Alberta overtaking British Columbia

[Denscity]

Originally Posted by Architype

It's even apparent that Vancouver may one day surpass Montreal, at least in some ways, some of the immigration stats suggest that this is possible.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail.../t001b-eng.htm

Vancouver has already surpassed Montreal in 3 different places:
Number of towers
Airport passengers
Port size/container movements

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Denscity

Vancouver has already surpassed Montreal in 3 different places:
Number of towers
Airport passengers
Port size/container movements

Also bigger mountains.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Also bigger mountains.

More fiscally efficient snow removal budget per capita.

[Denscity]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Also bigger mountains.

True but they were never smaller at first

[Martin Mtl]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

also bigger mountains.

lol

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Also bigger mountains.

And Montreal has bigger mountains than Toronto!

[Djeffery]

Toronto might have more people and a larger economy, but I think if you took a poll in the rest of the world, more people if they were considering a visit to Canada, would choose Montreal over Toronto as the city they wanted to come to (I would say Vancouver would be ahead as well, maybe even of both). And I think that pisses Torontonians off lol.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Toronto might have more people and a larger economy, but I think if you took a poll in the rest of the world, more people if they were considering a visit to Canada, would choose Montreal over Toronto as the city they wanted to come to (I would say Vancouver would be ahead as well, maybe even of both). And I think that pisses Torontonians off lol.

But Toronto receives far more visitors annually than does Montreal, no?

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

But Toronto receives far more visitors annually than does Montreal, no?

It does. Toronto has the most international visitors in Canada.
Kind of shoots his assumption/argument out of the water.