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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 12:40 PM
WaterlooInvestor WaterlooInvestor is offline
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Canadian Business Thread

This thread is to discuss Canadian Business. I'll start things off with the latest headline:

RIM shares hits fresh high on China deal
Teams up with telecom giant Alcatel-Lucent to sell BlackBerrys in China
David George-Cosh, Financial Post
Published: Tuesday, October 23, 2007


Research in Motion co-CEO Jim Balsillie is silhouetted while speaking at the Ottawa Centre for Research and Innovation Technology Showcase. RIM has partnered with telecom giant Alcatel-Lucent to sell BlackBerry wireless devices in China.

Investors yesterday sent Research in Motion Ltd.'s stock to a record high, at one point making it the most valuable company in the country during trading yesterday, after revealing it had partnered with telecom giant Alcatel-Lucent to sell BlackBerry wireless devices in China.

The manufacturer saw its stocks surge to $120.42 on the TSX, up 8.19% following the announcement that their 8700 BlackBerry model would be distributed in the booming Chinese market later this year, though no specific date was given for distribution. The stock jumped US$11.15, or 9.8%, to close at US$124.53 on the Nasdaq market.

Canaccord Adams senior technology analyst Peter Misek said RIM's developments in China are just the beginning of what could be a banner year for the Waterloo, Ont.-based company.

"This is going to be the biggest company in Canada," said Mr. Misek, who rates RIM as a "buy." "The company is a world beater and its technology is second-to-none. It's got an excellent execution engine and tremendous earnings growth."

"This is just step one for RIM in China. They're going to have additional partnerships, additional devices, additional services," he added.

China poses a huge opportunity for RIM. The country is relatively untapped in terms of mobile device penetration, with more than 10 million workers employed in Fortune 1000 companies and around 400 million middle-class residents who have found themselves flush with disposable income and with a culture that embraces new, exciting technology.

However, RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky said that yesterday's market reaction was ahead of itself and was valuing RIM mostly on its long-term prospects rather than what he called, "modest traction in the short term." He rated the stock as an outperform.

Still, the announcement caused the street to drive RIM's market capitalization to a peak of $69.2-billion, surpassing Royal Bank of Canada as the country's most valuable company for much of the afternoon. RIM's shares are the biggest success story on the TSX, increasing 138% so far this year and rising more than twentyfold over the past five years.

Any concerns over RIM entering the risky Chinese market, says Mr. Misek, should be calmed with its decision to partner with Alcatel-Lucent, which has strong roots in China.

"Alcatel-Lucent has been ... in China a lot longer than RIM has, for about the past 25 years," he said. "You have to have senior politburo contacts in order to do business in China in the scale that they're looking at."

Entering a major market such as China won't be a cakewalk for RIM, says Rob Enderle, president of the Enderle Group, a market research firm in San Jose, Calif. He says RIM will face daunting competition in a market saturated with a number of different mobile options, including the RedBerry, a homegrown BlackBerry knockoff.

Mr. Misek doesn't believe the cheaper device, made by China Unicom, will pose any challenge for RIM's 8700 model once the device hits the Chinese market.

"[RIM] has a network operations centre that effectively manages IP address, traffic, data, everything. Then you have compression and spectral technologies that RIM employs and an operating system on its devices that is remarkably thin and efficient," said Mr. Misek.

"There's so much more intellectual property than just a brand, which is why they're beating companies like Palm, Microsoft and Apple."


From GlobeInvestor.com

RIM Stock Chart - October 23, 2007


S&P/TSX Composite Top 10 at the close October 23, 2007:
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  #2  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 2:43 PM
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This morning BNN reported that RIM is now the biggest company in Canada (by market cap).
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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 3:26 PM
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*cough* Nortel *cough*

Just kidding guys I'm sure that won't happen to you.

Seriously though RIM has an outrageous P/E multiple and is wildly overpriced by just about any metric IMO.

In regards to the talk about RIM being the largest company in Canada, perhaps it narrowly beats RBC in market cap, but take a look at real money:

RIM Q2 Revenue: $1.37B
Net Income: $287.7M

Royal Bank Q2 Revenue: $5.48B
Net Income: $1.395B
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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 3:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottFromCalgary View Post
*cough* Nortel *cough*

Just kidding guys I'm sure that won't happen to you.

Seriously though RIM has an outrageous P/E multiple and is wildly overpriced by just about any metric IMO.

In regards to the talk about RIM being the largest company in Canada, perhaps it narrowly beats RBC in market cap, but take a look at real money:

RIM Q2 Revenue: $1.37B
Net Income: $287.7M

Royal Bank Q2 Revenue: $5.48B
Net Income: $1.395B
Now why don't you compare the relative growth rates?

The problem with your flawed argument regarding the P/E multiple is that RIM was wildly overpriced a few years ago too... since then the stock price has gone up by 500%... good call Scott.

The fact is... according to the market RIM is priced just right. P/E multiple by itself means very little... you also must consider the growth rate.
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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 4:38 PM
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You misunderstand my argument. I'm not saying the market got it wrong or that RIM does not deserve a large P/E. Clearly they have high growth rates. All I'm saying is that the law of large numbers has to come into play at some point and growth will slow, just ask Microsoft. At that point the P/E will drop and unless RIM has earnings numbers somewhere in the ballpark of RBC then their market cap will be lower. Yes RIM will diversify into other products and blah, blah, blah growth will continue and the market will probably always give them a higher multiple than a bank. But they have a long way to go to reach RBC's earnings.

The problem with momentum growth stocks like RIM is that eventually something happens that knocks down these precariously perched stocks. They break down real fast and as Kevin O'Leary says - "grown men will weep".

The implication behind the posts from the Waterloo forumers is that RIM's success is KW's success, and that is somewhat true. I'm just saying that a company with a huge market cap and relatively low earnings doesn't have the same amount of positive economic effect on its community as a company with tons of real earnings and investment. For example, according to the statement of cash flows in their most recently reported quarter:

Cash Used in Investing Activities (net of short term investments)
RIM: $ 105,830,000
Suncor: $1,322,000,000
Encana: $1,189,000,000

Let the Calgary/KW pissing match comence.
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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 7:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottFromCalgary View Post
You misunderstand my argument. I'm not saying the market got it wrong or that RIM does not deserve a large P/E. Clearly they have high growth rates. All I'm saying is that the law of large numbers has to come into play at some point and growth will slow, just ask Microsoft. At that point the P/E will drop and unless RIM has earnings numbers somewhere in the ballpark of RBC then their market cap will be lower. Yes RIM will diversify into other products and blah, blah, blah growth will continue and the market will probably always give them a higher multiple than a bank. But they have a long way to go to reach RBC's earnings.
Tell that to Google, and tell that to Microsoft.... RIM has a market cap of $69 billion, Google's is $211 billion and Microsoft is at $292 billion... RIM has a long way to go before its market cap matches the big boys. Microsoft was worth much more back in 2000 than it is now. Until 2000, Microsoft's market cap. kept going up and up and others using the same argument that you are using were wrong year after year after year after year.... they were eventually right, but not until they lost out big time due to lost opportunity. Just like you can say day after day that it will rain in the desert, you will be right eventually... but not until your credibility is long gone.

Quote:
The problem with momentum growth stocks like RIM is that eventually something happens that knocks down these precariously perched stocks. They break down real fast and as Kevin O'Leary says - "grown men will weep".
Sure, that has been the record in most cases... but that misses the real point, which is the question of WHEN! As long as the fundamental story stays the same... hold onto the stock.

Quote:
The implication behind the posts from the Waterloo forumers is that RIM's success is KW's success, and that is somewhat true. I'm just saying that a company with a huge market cap and relatively low earnings doesn't have the same amount of positive economic effect on its community as a company with tons of real earnings and investment.
That's not true (at least not with Waterloo).... have you ever heard of the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics?.... how about the Institute of Quantum Computing at the University of Waterloo.... how about the Centre for International Governance Innovation and Igloo? What about The Balsillie School of International Affairs? All are due to the presence of RIM in Waterloo. Manulife is the 5th largest insurance company in the world (with big earnings)..... its Canadian headoffice is in Waterloo where they employ thousands. Manulife's economic effect on Waterloo is small relative to RIM's... The city of Waterloo is being transformed because of the success and presence of RIM, not Manulife.

I would estimate the combined net worth of RIM's top two executives (residents of Waterloo) at around $7 billion.... what's the net worth of Calgary's top two executives just out of curiousity?


Quote:
For example, according to the statement of cash flows in their most recently reported quarter:

Cash Used in Investing Activities (net of short term investments)
RIM: $ 105,830,000
Suncor: $1,322,000,000
Encana: $1,189,000,000
That doesn't necessarily mean a thing.... where is the money spent? New York or Toyko?

RIM's affect on Waterloo is MUCH larger that both Encana's and Suncor's affect (added together) on Calgary.... I mean just how many WORLD CLASS institutes have those companies started in Calgary?

Last edited by Waterlooson; Oct 24, 2007 at 8:29 PM.
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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 8:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottFromCalgary View Post
".

The implication behind the posts from the Waterloo forumers is that RIM's success is KW's success, and that is somewhat true. I'm just saying that a company with a huge market cap and relatively low earnings doesn't have the same amount of positive economic effect on its community as a company with tons of real earnings and investment. For example, according to the statement of cash flows in their most recently reported quarter:

Cash Used in Investing Activities (net of short term investments)
RIM: $ 105,830,000
Suncor: $1,322,000,000
Encana: $1,189,000,000

Let the Calgary/KW pissing match comence.
You can make the same implication for Suncor and Encana. The largest share of their Canadian investors are likely in Ontario. - Seeing how the majority of high net worth Canadains live in Ontario. Some things are relative.

I will give WaterlooInvestor this, RIM is changing the way all Canadian businesses will be viewed in the future. They are truely on the leading edge of technology in a way Nortel could never say it was.

BTW: Nortel still exist in Brampton and Ottawa ( they didn't disappear after their stockprice nosedived.)

Edit: Oh shit, I just forgot, Nortel sold their Brampton headquarters to Rogers a couple of years ago.
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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 10:56 PM
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Originally Posted by caltrane74 View Post
You can make the same implication for Suncor and Encana. The largest share of their Canadian investors are likely in Ontario. - Seeing how the majority of high net worth Canadains live in Ontario. Some things are relative.

Actually I was quoting Cash Used in Investing Activities, not dividends per share or share price appreciation. Suncor's investments are pretty much all in Alberta and Encana has most of their's here as well.

@Waterlooson: Yes I have heard of all of those facilities (only on this forum though - actually it seems like that's all I ever hear from the KW people), their is no doubt that RIM and its founders have been generous to Waterloo. Also, I really hope that RIM does become as large as Microsoft or Google some day, I just don't see it happening. Feel free to buy a whole swack of RIM stock, I just won't be joining you. I would consider having it as 1% of my portfolio at most.
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2007, 12:02 PM
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Originally Posted by ScottFromCalgary View Post
Let the Calgary/KW pissing match comence.
No need for a Calgary/KW fight. The Calgary oil sector and boom are both much larger than Waterloo's tech sector and boom. I can easily admit this. However, both cities are doing well and I think we can respect each other for our different business sectors. If Canada is to succeed and be a global leader, we need global companies in many different sectors.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottFromCalgary View Post
Seriously though RIM has an outrageous P/E multiple and is wildly overpriced by just about any metric IMO.
In regards to the talk about RIM being the largest company in Canada, perhaps it narrowly beats RBC in market cap, but take a look at real money:
RIM Q2 Revenue: $1.37B
Net Income: $287.7M
Royal Bank Q2 Revenue: $5.48B
Net Income: $1.395B
As Waterlooson mentioned, it's all about the growth rate.

Period - Revenue (US$millions) - Net Income (US$millions) - Subscribers (in thousands)
2003 - 306 - (148) - 534
2004 - 594 - 47 - 1,069
2005 - 1,350 - 205 - 2,510
2006 - 2,065 - 374 - 4,900
2007 - 3,037 - 631 - 8,000

2Q2008 - 1,372 or *4 = 5,488 annualized - 287 or *4 = 1,148 annualized - 10,500

Expected 3Q2008 - 1,600to1,670 or 6,400 annualized - 339to362 or 1,356 annualized - 12,000

As you can see, there's been large increases over the past 5 years and the trend continues with a jump between Q2 and Q3 (which ends soon ~December 1st). It's likely RIM currently has 11.5 million subscribers as of October 25, 2007. "Subscriber account additions in the third quarter are expected to be approximately 1.65 million." Since this is a city discussion forum, let's relate this growth to cities. RIM is growing by a:
  • North Battleford every day.
  • Thunder Bay every week.
  • Waterloo Region every month.
  • Calgary every two months.
  • Inner Ring Golden Horseshoe (Toronto-Hamilton) every year.

So sure the stock is expensive with only 11.5million subscribers, but is it still expensive looking out two years from now with 25 million customers?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottFromCalgary View Post
You misunderstand my argument. I'm not saying the market got it wrong or that RIM does not deserve a large P/E. Clearly they have high growth rates. All I'm saying is that the law of large numbers has to come into play at some point and growth will slow, just ask Microsoft. At that point the P/E will drop and unless RIM has earnings numbers somewhere in the ballpark of RBC then their market cap will be lower. Yes RIM will diversify into other products and blah, blah, blah growth will continue and the market will probably always give them a higher multiple than a bank. But they have a long way to go to reach RBC's earnings.
I hear and understand what you're saying, but also realize the market is pricing in expectations that RIM will eventually match (or come much closer) to RBC's earnings. The market is willing to look ahead a bit, and can see the potential only two years in the future when RIM's customer base will be double the current level.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottFromCalgary View Post
The problem with momentum growth stocks like RIM is that eventually something happens that knocks down these precariously perched stocks. They break down real fast and as Kevin O'Leary says - "grown men will weep".
I watch SqueezePlay daily. Kevin wasn't on Wednesday, but he was there on Tuesday and mentioned how he'd been wrong on RIM. He went bearish on the stock back in 2005, but now admits his arguments back then didn't materialize.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottFromCalgary View Post
The implication behind the posts from the Waterloo forumers is that RIM's success is KW's success, and that is somewhat true. I'm just saying that a company with a huge market cap and relatively low earnings doesn't have the same amount of positive economic effect on its community as a company with tons of real earnings and investment. For example, according to the statement of cash flows in their most recently reported quarter:
Cash Used in Investing Activities (net of short term investments)
RIM: $ 105,830,000
Suncor: $1,322,000,000
Encana: $1,189,000,000
Once again I hear what you're saying, but please realize that the RIM numbers are growing very rapidly. 100million one year can quickly become 200 million the next or 500million in a few years.

Still though, market cap can have a very positive effect on a community as well. For example, the 3 RIM billionaires (and other millionaires) have invested a few hundred million of their own money into research institutes, schools, and other causes throughout the community. They also employ ~5,000 people in Waterloo Region with 408 openings as of today. It wouldn't surprise me to see their employee count in Waterloo hit 10,000 over the next few years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Waterlooson View Post
I would estimate the combined net worth of RIM's top two executives (residents of Waterloo) at around $7 billion
Even better, I'd estimate:

Lazaridis (Michael) @ $4.475 billion
Balsillie (James L) @ $4.258 billion

so combined $8.733 billion. There's also a 3rd RIM billionaire in Waterloo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by caltrane74 View Post
I will give WaterlooInvestor this, RIM is changing the way all Canadian businesses will be viewed in the future. They are truely on the leading edge of technology in a way Nortel could never say it was.
Awhile back on SSC, we were talking about Canada and a European mentioned Blackberry as one of our Canadian brands. If we want to be known as a nation of modern glass vibrant cities - being known as a country with technology helps. RIM is helping to boost Canada's image abroad.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottFromCalgary View Post
@Waterlooson: Yes I have heard of all of those facilities (only on this forum though - actually it seems like that's all I ever hear from the KW people), their is no doubt that RIM and its founders have been generous to Waterloo. Also, I really hope that RIM does become as large as Microsoft or Google some day, I just don't see it happening. Feel free to buy a whole swack of RIM stock, I just won't be joining you. I would consider having it as 1% of my portfolio at most.
Honestly it does sound beyond belief that Waterloo could have a $200-300 billion market cap company.

That said, tech companies are only as good as their workforce. There are many years when Microsoft hires more grads from the University of Waterloo than anywhere else in the world. Obviously RIM has home-field advantage in recruiting Waterloo students. Lazaridis is also the chancellor of the university.

Heck, if tiny Finland can build a Nokia ($160-billion market cap), surely a G7 country like Canada can do the same.
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2007, 3:17 PM
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Originally Posted by WaterlooInvestor View Post

.... I'd estimate:

Lazaridis (Michael) @ $4.475 billion
Balsillie (James L) @ $4.258 billion

so combined $8.733 billion. There's also a 3rd RIM billionaire in Waterloo.
How so? What percentage of RIM do the top 3 own? Who is the 3rd billionaire? Fregin?
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2007, 3:25 PM
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... They also employ ~5,000 people in Waterloo Region with 408 openings as of today. It wouldn't surprise me to see their employee count in Waterloo hit 10,000 over the next few years.


.... those 408 openings in Waterloo (at RIM) doesn't include the 172 job openings for coop students, so the total is 580 openings @ RIM in Waterloo.
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Old Posted Oct 25, 2007, 10:18 AM
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Out of curiousity, do you perchance work for RIM?
Nope, but as my name suggests I have an interest in both Waterloo and Investing. RIM is a major influence for both, hence my constant following.

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I've always wondered the same thing.. Either that or the chamber of commerce. His posts always seem to have an "advertisement" feel to them, the way he always includes pictures of company logos, etc
Nope. It's called taking a minute to make my posts have a better presentation. It doesn't take long to change a title's size and colour, and to underline and bold it. It doesn't take long to hit the 'insert image' button, so when a news article includes a photo, it seems natural to include it.
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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 5:10 PM
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Something that could have significantly more national relevance than who has the largest market cap - Nexen is making big ass profits in areas Encana deemed unprofitable at sub 50 dollar/barrel oil. If Eddie imposes to harsh a royalty increase, expect to hear more of this ....

Nexen profits as Buzzard lifts off
Globe and Mail Update
October 24, 2007 at 7:55 AM EDT
Oil and gas producer Nexen Inc.'s [NXY-T]third-quarter profit more than doubled from a year ago to $403-million or 75 cents a share, as production ramped up at its Buzzard oil field in the North Sea.
The profit for the three months ended Sept. 30 came in two cents ahead of analysts' consensus forecast and compared with $199-million or 37 cents a share a year earlier, the Calgary-based company said Wednesday. It noted that profit for the latest period included a $55-million after tax recovery on stock-based compensation.

Production climbed to the equivalent of 261,000 barrel s of oil a day from 203,000 a year earlier and net sales rose to nearly $1.45-billion from $997-million, Nexen said, while cash flow from operations rose to $868-million or $1.65 a share from $594-million or 77 cents.

The company attributed the growing production volumes to completed development projects in the North Sea, including Buzzard and Duart.
Nexen's third-quarter profit more than doubled as it ramped up production at its Buzzard gas play in the North Sea.

“A number of our development projects are now on stream, but these have taken us longer to complete than we expected,” Nexen chief executive officer Charlie Fischer said in a news release. “As we bring these development projects on stream, we are starting to achieve our target rates and our financial results are beginning to show the significant value of these projects.”

The soaring Canadian dollar took a toll on the Canadian company's numbers.
It said that although the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $75.38 a barrel from $70.48 a year ago, it was “unable to retain the full benefit of the price increase due to the weakening U.S. dollar.”
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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 5:28 PM
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Out of curiousity, do you perchance work for RIM?
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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 8:17 PM
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Out of curiousity, do you perchance work for RIM?
I've always wondered the same thing.. Either that or the chamber of commerce. His posts always seem to have an "advertisement" feel to them, the way he always includes pictures of company logos, etc
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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 8:15 PM
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well, it probably has more to do with the fact that Encana is somewhat of a "drop in the bucket" for Calgary. Waterloo is a much smaller city, so having one really successful business in town is going to make a much larger difference, proportionally
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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 8:37 PM
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Without going into the side debates in this thread, the one thing i will give RIM is that they seem to have world class management and that can go a long way....



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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 8:41 PM
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Without going into the side debates in this thread, the one thing i will give RIM is that they seem to have world class management and that can go a long way....



Claeren.
I'm not all that impressed with Jim Balsillie.... he's made too may mistakes IMO.... but Mike Lazaridis is a real genius for sure.
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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 10:41 PM
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I'm not all that impressed with Jim Balsillie.... he's made too may mistakes IMO.... but Mike Lazaridis is a real genius for sure.
Yeah, but that same aggressiveness is what makes it world class. The top guy(s) push and the rest of the executive team (when they are strong too) do everything they can to make it happen without over-extending themselves.

A weak and non-visionary top means the company plays it too safe, as is the case with many Canadian companies.

A weak secondary executive tier of 'yes-men' allows the top people to push too far, as is the case with many American companies that have been hollowed out this way.


Great companies have balance. I don't knwo for sure if that is RIM yet but i get that impression based on the moves they have been making.

I get the same impression from Richard Branson's Virgin Group, for example.




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Old Posted Oct 24, 2007, 10:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Claeren View Post
Yeah, but that same aggressiveness is what makes it world class. The top guy(s) push and the rest of the executive team (when they are strong too) do everything they can to make it happen without over-extending themselves.

A weak and non-visionary top means the company plays it too safe, as is the case with many Canadian companies.

A weak secondary executive tier of 'yes-men' allows the top people to push too far, as is the case with many American companies that have been hollowed out this way.


Great companies have balance. I don't knwo for sure if that is RIM yet but i get that impression based on the moves they have been making.

I get the same impression from Richard Branson's Virgin Group, for example.




Claeren.
RIM could have settled the NTP lawsuit for $25 million US (according to NTP).... but Balsillie was asleep at the wheel and ignored NTP's concerns until they sued.... the result was that RIM ended up paying out $612.5 million to them instead (plus millions in legal fees).... that's poor management IMO.

By the way, just where does that "vast metropolis" aka Winnipeg fit into the Canadian business scene?
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