Halifax NHL Team

[q12]

Quebec, Halifax and Hamilton among cities favoured for NHL team: poll


HALIFAX - There's no denying Halifax has loyal hockey fans.

After all, the city is home to one of the most famous players in the world - Sidney Crosby - and other

But, people are once again wondering if Halifax is hockey-mad enough to host an NHL team.

A recent poll by Forum Research asked which Canadian city should be the next to get a franchise: While Quebec City - formerly the home of the Nordiques - came in first, Halifax tied with Hamilton as the second pick.


Read more on Global News: http://www.globalmaritimes.com/hocke...225/story.html

[someone123]

It's just a poll. One problem with Halifax is that the Metro Centre is too small.

I do think however that Halifax is probably pretty close to a city like Winnipeg as far as the potential of the market. Halifax itself is somewhat smaller than Winnipeg but an NHL team there would appeal to hockey fans in other parts of the region.

[q12]

Originally Posted by someone123

I do think however that Halifax is probably pretty close to a city like Winnipeg as far as the potential of the market. Halifax itself is somewhat smaller than Winnipeg but an NHL team there would appeal to hockey fans in other parts of the region.

I agree with you there. Manitoba is 1.25 million and the Maritimes is 1.85 Million.



Take out Northern and Western New Brunswick and you still have nearly the same population.

Even just Mainland Nova Scotia, Moncton area & P.E.I. is about 1.1 million.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo02a-eng.htm

[spaustin]

You can't just add up the population of part of NB, PEI and mainland NS and declare that the population that could support a NHL or CFL team. Out-of-towners do help to boost attendance, but sports teams really live and die based on their own local population. More than an hour away is probably about the limit for the average spectator. With that in mind, it's worth noting that Winnipeg's metro area has just under 750,000 whereas we're somewhere just over 400,000. A CFL team might be able to make a go of it, but besides the outlier that is Saskatchewan, we would be the smallest market in the league. For an NHL team, there is no way that 400,000 is going to cut it. It's unfortunate, but it's the truth.

[q12]

Originally Posted by spaustin

You can't just add up the population of part of NB, PEI and mainland NS and declare that the population that could support a NHL or CFL team. Out-of-towners do help to boost attendance, but sports teams really live and die based on their own local population. More than an hour away is probably about the limit for the average spectator. With that in mind, it's worth noting that Winnipeg's metro area has just under 750,000 whereas we're somewhere just over 400,000. A CFL team might be able to make a go of it, but besides the outlier that is Saskatchewan, we would be the smallest market in the league. For an NHL team, there is no way that 400,000 is going to cut it. It's unfortunate, but it's the truth.

There is atleast 500,000 within an approximate hour or so of Halifax probably closer to 600,000. Not that far fetched. I'm pretty sure Winnipeg still would have sold all its season tickets with 600,000 people.

[-Harlington-]

Not gonna happen anytime soon but the potential is there, once a new arena and more of a population with money is in place I could see this happening in the next 30 years or so

if it did Id gladly give Moncton the CFL team but until then that would be nice to have and something Halifax could support no problem with the right infrastructure

[someone123]

Originally Posted by spaustin

More than an hour away is probably about the limit for the average spectator.

If you go by this then actually the Winnipeg and Halifax markets are a bit closer in size than the CMA populations would suggest. I don't think there are many towns around the outskirts of Winnipeg, but I do think people living in towns like Windsor/Kentville/Wolfville, Lunenburg/Mahone Bay/Chester and Truro would make the trip down for an NHL game. I also think that you could get the rest of Atlantic Canada to identify with a team located in Halifax that focuses on the region -- you'd therefore have the regional population of around 2 million people watching TV and buying merchandise, plus the large population of expats.

The real point is that if Winnipeg has a team, Halifax is not actually that far off from being a viable city. It's easy to imagine things going the right way over the next 10-20 years. It would be a very different story if the NHL were limited to cities like Toronto or Montreal.

[Antigonish]

Considering the cost of tickets for each game, I would be surprised if Haligonians (and a few thousand other Maritimers) could afford to go 41 games a season. A CFL team would be more financially viable in my opinion.

[Nouvellecosse]

I'd say you're probably right on all counts.

[PoscStudent]

Why hasn't Halifax been able to get the AHL back?

[q12]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

Why hasn't Halifax been able to get the AHL back?

We don't want that garbage. CHL has elite players, AHL = leftovers. No offense to St. John's but the CHL is far more exciting than the AHL.

I've been to Halifax Citadel's and Nova Scotia Oiler's games. The Mooseheads are far more exciting.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by q12

We don't want that garbage. CHL has elite players, AHL = leftovers. No offense to St. John's but the CHL is far more exciting than the AHL.

I've been to Halifax Citadel's and Nova Scotia Oiler's games. The Mooseheads are far more exciting.

Yet attendance for the Mooseheads has not been strong.

[q12]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

Yet attendance for the Mooseheads has not been strong.

The Mooseheads have been in the league since 1994. We have been number one in attendance in the Q league except for recent years that Quebec has become popular with a good team. The Mooseheads previous seasons (except for last year) we were the worst team in the standings and we were still were number two in the Q league for attendance.

The playoffs this year have had big sellouts of 11,000. The Halifax - Quebec Series broke the all-time attendance record for a series in the Q league.

The Mooseheads are one of the most profitable teams in the CHL.

The Halifax Citadels had poor attendance due to a crappy product.

[CorbeauNoir]

That's not really a huge accoplishment considering Halifax and QC's arenas are far larger than any other in the Q. Ditto for setting an attendance record when the two largest arenas in the league play in a full seven-game series. When every other team is playing in a 2-3k seat rink it's a bit of an empty claim.

Both the AHL and the CHL are fundamentally used as development leagues. I don't really get how one is 'elite' by virtue of its players happening to be a bit younger and less experienced.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by q12

The Mooseheads have been in the league since 1994. We have been number one in attendance in the Q league except for recent years that Quebec has become popular with a good team. The Mooseheads previous seasons (except for last year) we were the worst team in the standings and we were still were number two in the Q league for attendance.

The playoffs this year have had big sellouts of 11,000. The Halifax - Quebec Series broke the all-time attendance record for a series in the Q league.

The Mooseheads are one of the most profitable teams in the CHL.

The Halifax Citadels had poor attendance due to a crappy product.

They're still not selling out for non playoff games.

[someone123]

I think the same arguments were made against Winnipeg a couple of years ago. It was an outlier, and now maybe Quebec City will also get a team. The fact is that there is a lot of money to be made in both of those markets.

I don't know the situation with Edmonton, but pro sports teams have turned extortion into an art form -- they constantly complain and threaten to leave, and many municipalities fall over themselves to provide gold-plated venues and sweetheart deals. That's not a good thing but it's how the industry works.

There have been plans from TCL to rebuild the Metro Centre and they could very easily aim for an MTS Centre-level venue.

[Waye Mason]

Winnipeg's CMA has very nearly double Halifax CMA's population. You can't count on thousands of people driving from Fredericton, Sydney and Moncton for all regular season games. I don't think this is in any way viable.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Waye Mason

Winnipeg's CMA has very nearly double Halifax CMA's population. You can't count on thousands of people driving from Fredericton, Sydney and Moncton for all regular season games.

This is pretty misleading. According to Google Maps, it takes 28 minutes to drive from City Hall to the northern edge of the Halifax CMA on the 101. The regional market for a team in Halifax is a bit over 600,000; this is the CMA plus people who would travel 30-60 minutes, not people in Fredericton. This total is about 2/3 the size of Winnipeg.

If you say that the people who have to drive 1-2 hours are worth, say, 5%, you might be looking at the 75% market. People in Halifax earn a bit more money on average too (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...il107a-eng.htm).

To be honest I don't care about the NHL really, but I just don't think it's true that Halifax should be considered beyond the pale (particularly over a longer term time frame) when Winnipeg has a team and Quebec City might get one (and actually there was talk of bringing a team to Kitchener-Waterloo). In fact unless the NHL shifts away from the smaller cities and some of those teams fold again we will probably see this as a local issue in the future, particularly when Metro Centre upgrades are considered.

As an aside, it's important to understand that the CMA substantially understates the size of Halifax as a metropolitan and commuter region. In the closer parts of Hants and Colchester, 30%+ of people work in the Halifax CMA. Towns like Lunenburg, Windsor, and Wolfville are considered "moderately influenced" by the Halifax metro area, which means that 5-30% of their workers actually work in Halifax. This phenomenon does not necessarily exist in all other metropolitan areas to the same degree, because some CMAs, like Winnipeg or St. John's, have less population nearby, and in others like Hamilton people might actually work in another CMA like Toronto.

[Waye Mason]

Originally Posted by someone123

This is pretty misleading. According to Google Maps, it takes 28 minutes to drive from City Hall to the northern edge of the Halifax CMA on the 101. The regional market for a team in Halifax is a bit over 600,000; this is the CMA plus people who would travel 30-60 minutes, not people in Fredericton. This total is about 2/3 the size of Winnipeg.

If you say that the people who have to drive 1-2 hours are worth, say, 5%, you might be looking at the 75% market. People in Halifax earn a bit more money on average too (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...il107a-eng.htm).
.

It is not misleading to compare CMA to CMA. If you want to compare 1-2 hour drives, your basically getting almost to Moncton, and to Antigonish, to Berwick, to Shelburne, maybe, what, 650,000 people? 750,000? Less than the Winnipeg CMA, still.

If you do the same thing in Winnipeg, looked at everyone within a 1-2 hour drive you end up with the same results for them... probably 1 million. Most of Manitoba lives in the south. You end up with far more people there then here, before you even get in to comparing average incomes (family, individual) and per capita GDP and such. AND without comparing ages... a lot of OLD people in rural Nova Scotia, we have an aging population out there, are they going to saddle up and drive 2 hours to get to a game in Halifax? Some will, most won't.

NHL average ticket - $51.00. Fan Price Index $300. Average season tickets ice $8,058.80 nosebleeds $946.02. That is a lot.

I don't think it is hating on Halifax to think this is a bit beyond....

[roccerfeller]

Originally Posted by Waye Mason

It is not misleading to compare CMA to CMA. If you want to compare 1-2 hour drives, your basically getting almost to Moncton, and to Antigonish, to Berwick, to Shelburne, maybe, what, 650,000 people? 750,000? Less than the Winnipeg CMA, still.

If you do the same thing in Winnipeg, looked at everyone within a 1-2 hour drive you end up with the same results for them... probably 1 million. Most of Manitoba lives in the south. You end up with far more people there then here, before you even get in to comparing average incomes (family, individual) and per capita GDP and such. AND without comparing ages... a lot of OLD people in rural Nova Scotia, we have an aging population out there, are they going to saddle up and drive 2 hours to get to a game in Halifax? Some will, most won't.

NHL average ticket - $51.00. Fan Price Index $300. Average season tickets ice $8,058.80 nosebleeds $946.02. That is a lot.

I don't think it is hating on Halifax to think this is a bit beyond....

I agree.

I'd personally love to see the NHL in Halifax

But it is not realistic. At least with cities like Winnipeg and Quebec City, never mind that they are about twice the size of Halifax, they have real/prospective owners in TNSE and PKP of Quebecor.

Who would be the owner of a ~150 million dollar franchise in Halifax?

They have/will have modern NHL ready arenas, in le nouveux colisée and MTS Centre. The current Pepsi colisée is old and severely outdated even with its current upgrades. It is only a placeholder for their $400 million dollar arena project scheduled to be completed by summer/fall 2015.

What is the news with building a new arena in Halifax? It only holds somewhere south of 11k seats (for hockey) iirc. Plus its fairly outdated.

And what of the corporate support? Quebec City is fairly self contained, being as it is a government city (second only to Ottawa) and there is a huge focus on the french market there (self containing business environment) notwithstanding many Montreal based corporations would be willing to support business revenues in Quebec city especially the dozens that are left out during Habs games.

Winnipeg is the only major city in Manitoba with all the government and provincial business focus, and it has more head offices of major corporations than either Edmonton or Ottawa, a history of an organization that has honed its skills with an AHL franchise, in partnership with the richest man in Canada, built a new arena in the city, built a decade plus of good relationship with the NHL, did their homework for several years following smaller market business models in Edmonton and Nashville, and still Winnipeg was heavily criticized about owning an NHL team. It's current success (by which I mean it is a profitable NHL franchise) has to do simply with the fact that ticket prices are high, people are willing to shed out money, its exceptionally hard to get a ticket to see a game, everything is privately owned by TNSE, and the entire business model is set up so that even in the worst of times losses could be offset.

Quebec City has also been in contact with Winnipeg and Edmonton regarding their business models and arena plans, and I think even Ottawa.

How many registered small business are there in Halifax?
Halifax and Dartmouth together show a rough result of about 11.3k businesses (http://www.manta.com/world/North+Ame...a/Nova+Scotia/) a decent gauge of people who would be buying box seats or club seats or a general gauge of business strength in the city.

Versus Quebec City (>19k) http://www.manta.com/world/North+America/Canada/Quebec/

Winnipeg (>25k)
http://www.manta.com/world/North+Ame...nada/Manitoba/

Ottawa (>26k)
http://www.manta.com/world/North+Ame...anada/Ontario/

Edmonton (>34k)
http://www.manta.com/world/North+Ame...anada/Alberta/

And note I counted Dartmouth with Halifax. These are just urban businesses. If we took businesses nearby these other cities, they too would be higher in some cases (Winnipeg + Selkirk, Steinbach, Stonewall, Roblin), much higher in others (Edmonton + Fort Sask, Leduc, St Albert). Again, this is all disregarding that Halifax is much smaller than Quebec City or Winnipeg. Halifax itself has ~6.7k registered businesses. Halifax's small business market (including Dartmouth) is about the same size as Regina and Saskatoon. Though, in fairness to Halifax, the entire area in Nova Scotia is very spread out and there are multiple small businesses around the region. Nevermind that the Halifax CMA region has many more small businesses than Regina or Saskatoon, Halifax is the Atlantic Centre of big Canadian businesses in the country, and there are many head offices there. Halifax is an important transportation and shipping centre, moreso than either Regina or Saskatoon.


My point is not to be negative regarding Halifax's chances (as I said I would love to see the NHL there and I truly mean that) but to be realistic. Setting up false expectations and hopes are never good. At least those vying for a team in Quebec City have realistic grounds for that; there could be a functional franchise in that city. Halifax, I don't think so. That list is simply a "wish list" for Canadians, and if i was voting, I would vote for Quebec City and Halifax myself.

Halifax has struggle attracting the CFL which is much cheaper to function; how could it realistically attract the NHL?