Worldwide Demographics

[Yuri]

As most of statistical offices have their Census scheduled to this period, I found it would be nice to center all discussions in one place. Obviously the US will run the show here in this thread, but we can also bring stuff from elsewhere.

Anyway, I guess the big news is the collapse of US growth in this decade:

2000 ---- 281,421,906 ---- 13.2%

2010 ---- 308,745,538 ----- 9.7%

2020 ---- 330,047,526 ----- 6.9%

And obviously, this will impact directly the growth of their metropolitan areas. New York CSA is projected to grow mere 1.5% this decade to reach 22.6 million people, as opposed to much healthier 3.5% (2000's) and 8.5% (1990's).

And that's everywhere: Chicago CSA shriking, after growing at double-digit rate in the 1990's (10.9%). Los Angeles CSA posed to surpass New York since the 1960's, is finding its plateau with 4.7% growth this decade.

On the other hand, quite a few managed to go against the trend, most notably San Francisco MSA+San Jose MSA, reaching 9% this decade against 5% on the past or Boston MSA, jumping from 3.6% to 7% this decade.

What are your thoughts, anybody wants to guess what the Census numbers will reveal?

[Yuri]

Elsewhere, big cities seem to do much better. The biggest surprise comes from Germany, a country with one of the worst demographics in the world, improved its economy and open the doors for immigration and its cities are under a mini-boom.

Berlin, with 11.4% growth between 2011-2019, reaching 4.5 million in its (strict) metro area. That's sunbelt kind of growth. Atlanta MSA, for instance, is at 13.9% this decade.

Then we have Hamburg at 7.7%(2.7 million inh.), Munich at 10.1% (2.4 million inh.), Frankfurt at 10.6% (2 million inh.) and Leipzig for a whopping 16.3% growth (681k inh.).

In Britain, London's fast growth has been for a while. 11.4% between 2001-2011 Census and 7.8% between 2011-2018, heading for another decade double-digit. That's the agglomeration we're talking about, with its 14.2 million inh.

[The North One]

I don't see a reason to be putting much stock in US numbers since everything is going to shit and will no doubt be horribly inaccurate this decade. It was already bad without the pandemic with it being underfunded.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by The North One

I don't see a reason to be putting much stock in US numbers since everything is going to shit and will no doubt be horribly inaccurate this decade. It was already bad without the pandemic with it being underfunded.

Statistical offices have sophisticated models that calculate undercounting. US Census Bureau is one of the best, so I don't think that will be a problem.

Originally Posted by isaidso

Do you mean because most of the posters on SSP are Americans as demographically the US is only 5% of the world population. In terms of changes, most of the world's growth is happening in Africa.

Here in SSP likes to discuss the US, so that will take most of the talk.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Here in SSP likes to discuss the US, so that will take most of the talk.

You're probably right although hopefully you'll get representation from everywhere.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Obviously the US will run the show here in this thread, but we can also bring stuff from elsewhere.

Do you mean because most of the posters on SSP are Americans as demographically the US is only 5% of the world population. In terms of changes, most of the world's growth is happening in Africa.

[ssiguy]

In the West, social scientists have a horrible time predicting population growth due to so much of our population being dependent upon immigration.

Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure.

This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

In the West, social scientists have a horrible time predicting population growth due to so much of our population being dependent upon immigration.

Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure.

This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels.

That's the main problem. Fortunately for Brazil (which postponed its Census for 2021) migration is pretty much zero. All growth is natural.

And inside the country, big waves of domestic migration are a thing of the past. It makes estimates much easier to make. We can assume migration levels remain the same of the past decade or assume it grew or fell according to fluctuations on the number of births.

And speaking of which, Brazil grew 12.3% between 2000-2010 and is heading for a 9% between 2010-2020. For the next decade, I believe it will fall to 6%.

São Paulo metro area will grow by 1.5 million (8% down from 10% on the last decade) to reach 21.2 million. 1.7 million based on natural growth while migration will be negative by 200,000 people, leaving the metro area mostly to the nearby metro areas part of the macrometropolis (Campinas region, the coast).

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure.

This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels.

All true although we'll likely get to a point very soon where it will be politically difficult to bring immigration levels down drastically. The Boomers will start dying off in large numbers in about 10+ years. We're in a panic to bring in lots of young working age people and quickly. Competition for immigrants will start heating up too as most of the developed world sees natural increase head to zero or negative.

The Conservatives may want fewer immigrants but our economic future demands we stay the course. The big worry is whether a Conservative government would adhere to ideology over what's best for Canada economically. It all hinges on whether immigration will return to pre-COVID levels. Will we see net migration back to 430,000+? Demographically speaking it would be prudent to get that number to 600,000 and keep it there for at least 20 years. In 2040, re-assess.

Canada's Census is in 2021 and July 1st, 2020 estimates haven't been released yet. I'll provide figures for the year ending July 1st, 2019 as a gauge of where we were pre-COVID. The linked site below will spit out numbers for CMAs (Census Metropolitan Area) and CAs (Census Agglomeration) and data by year starting in 2007.


CANADIAN POPULATION (July 1st, 2018 - July 1st 2019)

Population: 37,589,262
Annual Increase: +531,497
Natural Increase: +94,808
Net Migration: +436,689


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

In the West, social scientists have a horrible time predicting population growth due to so much of our population being dependent upon immigration.

Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure.

This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels.

The dearth of babies affects nearly every developed country. Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Greece, Hungary, Canada, the United States, Brazil....and many others besides have a fertility rate below what is necessary (anything below 2.1) to sustain population levels.


CIA Worldfactbook

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

The dearth of babies affects nearly every developed country. Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Greece, Hungary, Canada, the United States, Brazil....and many others besides have a fertility rate below what is necessary (anything below 2.1) to sustain population levels.


CIA Worldfactbook

And now there are even more countries below 2. From the top of my head, France and Argentina. As a whole, Americas, Europe, East Asia and Oceania are all below replacement level.

[forward looking]

Developed countries depend on immigration for growth in population and economically.
I saw a Japanese businessman on a plane flight reading something pre-flight. As he put down his magazine I thought to ask him, so I spoke up.
"Why has Japan been in the economic doldrums for so long anyway, do you know?"
"We have no immigration like the U.S. has. With immigration comes growth."
I found it difficult to argue with that opinion.

Originally Posted by ssiguy

In the West, social scientists have a horrible time predicting population growth due to so much of our population being dependent upon immigration.

Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure.

This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

In the West, social scientists have a horrible time predicting population growth due to so much of our population being dependent upon immigration.

Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure.

This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels.

Brazil, on the other hand, is very predictable precisely due the opposite: both emigration and immigration are relatively small and they cancel each other.

Of course, for states and specially for municipalities, things get more complicated to predict as domestic migration, even though lower than the historical highs (1960's-1980's), still influence growth.

[sentinel]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

As most of statistical offices have their Census scheduled to this period, I found it would be nice to center all discussions in one place. Obviously the US will run the show here in this thread, but we can also bring stuff from elsewhere.

Anyway, I guess the big news is the collapse of US growth in this decade:

2000 ---- 281,421,906 ---- 13.2%

2010 ---- 308,745,538 ----- 9.7%

2020 ---- 330,047,526 ----- 6.9%

And obviously, this will impact directly the growth of their metropolitan areas. New York CSA is projected to grow mere 1.5% this decade to reach 22.6 million people, as opposed to much healthier 3.5% (2000's) and 8.5% (1990's).

And that's everywhere: Chicago CSA shriking, after growing at double-digit rate in the 1990's (10.9%). Los Angeles CSA posed to surpass New York since the 1960's, is finding its plateau with 4.7% growth this decade.

On the other hand, quite a few managed to go against the trend, most notably San Francisco MSA+San Jose MSA, reaching 9% this decade against 5% on the past or Boston MSA, jumping from 3.6% to 7% this decade.

What are your thoughts, anybody wants to guess what the Census numbers will reveal?

I'm sorry, where is this information coming from? Can you provide links please?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by sentinel

I'm sorry, where is this information coming from? Can you provide links please?

The original source is the US Census Bureau. For the sake of simplicity, I go either to Wikipedia (Demographics of the United States, list of MSAs, list of CSAs) or to the https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/ to check data from the US and all over the world.

I used the 2020 estimates for the country and the 2019 for MSAs/CSAs.

[sentinel]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

The original source is the US Census Bureau. For the sake of simplicity, I go either to Wikipedia (Demographics of the United States, list of MSAs, list of CSAs) or to the https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/ to check data from the US and all over the world.

I used the 2020 estimates for the country and the 2019 for MSAs/CSAs.

But 2020 US Census hasn't even been completed yet, counting isn't supposed to cease until end of Sept.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by sentinel

But 2020 US Census hasn't even been completed yet, counting isn't supposed to cease until end of Sept.

I’m aware of it. In fact, most of census will be carried out next year (the UK, Commonwealth countries, etc.).

The whole point of the thread is discussing results as soon as they are released. Moreover estimates are fairly accurate and can provide us some lead about the actual results.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

The whole point of the thread is discussing results as soon as they are released. Moreover estimates are fairly accurate and can provide us some lead about the actual results.

Canadian Population Estimates

Q2, 2019: 37,408,205
Q3, 2019: 37,589,262
Q4, 2019: 37,797,496
Q1, 2020: 37,894,799
Q2, 2020: 37,971,020

So from July 1, 2019 to July 1, 2020 the population increase was +562,815 or +1.50%. I believe that's the fastest growth rate in the G7 and the 2nd largest absolute increase after the United States. The previous year July 1, 2018 to July 1, 2019 the increase was +531,497 or +1.43% so growth ramped up a little year over year. For the Big 4 provinces the figures as follows:


Ontario: +260,798 (+1.80%)
Quebec: +104,753 (+1.24%)
Alberta: +77,346 (+1.78%)
BC: +73,404 (+1.45%)


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710000901

[jigglysquishy]

Decades of below replacement birth rate is a distaster. A country cannot rely solely on immigration and still be healthy.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by jigglysquishy

Decades of below replacement birth rate is a distaster. A country cannot rely solely on immigration and still be healthy.

Yet immigration is the only option available.