Winnipeg CMA in 5 years (2026)

[BlackDog204]

What will the population of Winnipeg CMA be on July 1 2026 (including the under-count)?

Technically, Stats Canada has the Winnipeg CMA population at 834,678, but population estimates have the population 852,771 (which includes the under-count).

I predict that the Winnipeg CMA will be 896,500 by 2026. It will fall just shy of that elusive 900K number.

[thebasketballgeek]

I think the estimates will be 905k or higher, but the undercount in the census will pull it down to 890-900k.

I remain cautiously optimistic. Hopefully our future growth can start shifting to inner-city neighbourhoods instead of the edge of the city.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

I think the estimates will be 905k or higher, but the undercount in the census will pull it down to 890-900k.

I remain cautiously optimistic. Hopefully our future growth can start shifting to inner-city neighbourhoods instead of the edge of the city.

Back in the mid 90s when I became an adult, I never understood why places like River Heights, Cresentwood, Riverview, and Wolsey had so many cheap homes, as I lived off Corydon near the 7-11 on Niagara. I kept thinking this is the absolute perfect area of the city.

If only I had taken out a loan to buy a house, instead of moving to Alberta for 5 years, I saw the value of the properties in those neighbourhoods skyrocket a decade. How is Old St.B? I always loved Norwood and especially the area north of Provencher.

Even West Broadway is so much different from the 90s. It went from being a part of the hood, to a desirable part of the city to live in. I hope the West End experiences the good fortune of Wolsey and West B.

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

If only I had taken out a loan to buy a house, instead of moving to Alberta for 5 years, I saw the value of the properties in those neighbourhoods skyrocket a decade. How is Old St.B? I always loved Norwood and especially the area north of Provencher .

Old St. Boniface is one of the areas currently growing steady but I can see a boom incoming. It’s too convenient of an area with very high safety for an inner-city neighbourhood. The development going on there is great, and once I move out of Waverley West it’s at the top of my list as a place where I would raise my family.

Councillor Allard even has the audacity to take a lane off of Provencher Blvd and convert it to a protected bike lane in the near future (great idea imo).

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

Old St. Boniface is one of the areas currently growing steady but I can see a boom incoming. It’s too convenient of an area with the added caveat of relatively affordable prices and very high safety for an inner-city neighbourhood. The development going on there is great, and once I move out of Waverley West it’s at the top of my list as a place where I would raise my family.

Councillor Allard even has the audacity to take a lane off of Provencher Blvd and convert it to a protected bike lane in the near future (great idea imo).

Do it.

Waverley West is a suburban wasteland. I know since I grew up in Fort Garry. The inner city has so much character, and is generally underrated. Same goes with River Park South, Island Lakes/Southdale, Canterbury Park, or Amber Trails. There is so much character is some of the old neighborhoods, transit is better, closer to all amenities of the city. Most are also close proximity to the rivers, which is great to walk along.

[dennis]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Do it.

Waverley West is a suburban wasteland. I know since I grew up in Fort Garry. The inner city has so much character, and is generally underrated. Same goes with River Park South, Island Lakes/Southdale, Canterbury Park, or Amber Trails. There is so much character is some of the old neighborhoods, transit is better, closer to all amenities of the city. Most are also close proximity to the rivers, which is great to walk along.

Weren’t the original plans to have a more walkable neighbourhood with storefronts facing the streets and more sidewalks and active transit corridors? Was it all scaled back?

[Jammon]

I voted for 890K- 904K. I think the diaspora of Ukrainian refugees could play a significant impact as well the the growing call for more international immigration to prop up our system, such as nursing shortages. Even our own PC government is looking for ways to streamline registration processes for those who are qualified to work in a professional role. Something I never thought I'd see from a PC government.

[Wpgstvsouth94]

Anyone know what’s going on with the population estimates for Manitoba? I’ve been watching it lately and we just keep dropping. A month ago we were 1,392,895 but now we are all the way down to 1,392,002. Super weird we are about to drop to 1,391,000 again. Any opinions??

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...018005-eng.htm

[Winnipegger]

Originally Posted by Wpgstvsouth94

Anyone know what’s going on with the population estimates for Manitoba? I’ve been watching it lately and we just keep dropping. A month ago we were 1,392,895 but now we are all the way down to 1,392,002. Super weird we are about to drop to 1,391,000 again. Any opinions??

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...018005-eng.htm

Not sure how granular the data is that Statistics Canada has access to, but I'm assuming it is more detailed than what they publish online. I'm guessing it has to do with the timing if births, deaths, international, and interprovincial migration. During certain periods, we get an influx of births and migrants which results in net positive growth, and then over time the population declines marginally as people die or leave for other provinces.

On net, all the currently-available data points to decent population growth in Manitoba (July 2021 to July 2022) for the upcoming July 1 estimate - permanent and non-permanent international migration to Manitoba is back to pre-pandemic levels based on the latest data from IRCC which should add substantial growth, but this will be offset by significant declines in fertility rates that were observed during the pandemic (people having less kids) and a small uptick in deaths, so the natural increase to population in Manitoba (and Canada) is very small. Interprovincial out-migration will likely continue to be very high, and I don't see this coming down anytime soon. But on net, population growth should be positive this coming July, and larger than last year.

Think of population change like a bucket: You've got a very big cup (international migration) and a small cup (natural increase) dumping water into a bucket. But Manitoba's bucket has two leaks, one is very big (people leaving Manitoba for other provinces) and one is small (deaths). During COVID, international migration and natural increase fell, while people leaving to other provinces (mainly BC, AB, and ON) increased significantly, along with deaths. In the short term, migration is heading back up to normal levels, but births will be likely be suppressed. Migration out of province largely depends on the economic state of other provinces, so its difficult to predict where that figure is headed.

[Luisito]

Much of that growth will come from the growing Punjabi community. A decade ago Filipinos were the main visible minority group in Wpg. That is no longer the case. The indian community here is growing extremely fast. I have never seen anything like it.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Luisito

Much of that growth will come from the growing Punjabi community. A decade ago Filipinos were the main visible minority group in Wpg. That is no longer the case. The indian community here is growing extremely fast. I have never seen anything like it.

That's interesting. For a while it felt like there was going to be a huge uptick in immigration for China... there was very little of it through most of the 90s but then it started to accelerate by the latter part of the decade. It has been steady but it never really hit overdrive.

By contrast, it's interesting to see the growth in the Indian community. I suppose there is a sufficiently large critical mass that makes it easier for others to come over? Filipino people have rightfully become a large part of the city's identity but it's not quite the case with the Indian community. I wonder if that will change in the years ahead?

[Luisito]

Originally Posted by esquire

That's interesting. For a while it felt like there was going to be a huge uptick in immigration for China... there was very little of it through most of the 90s but then it started to accelerate by the latter part of the decade. It has been steady but it never really hit overdrive.

By contrast, it's interesting to see the growth in the Indian community. I suppose there is a sufficiently large critical mass that makes it easier for others to come over? Filipino people have rightfully become a large part of the city's identity but it's not quite the case with the Indian community. I wonder if that will change in the years ahead?

I think it already has. I noticced in my car when listening to the radio we already have 2 or 3 indian/Punjabi radio stations.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Luisito

Much of that growth will come from the growing Punjabi community. A decade ago Filipinos were the main visible minority group in Wpg. That is no longer the case. The indian community here is growing extremely fast. I have never seen anything like it.

Filipinos are still the main visible minority group, AINEC. At least 80,000 people of Filipino descent live in Winnipeg, nearly double the entire South Asian population of the city.

[Luisito]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Filipinos are still the main visible minority group, AINEC. At least 80,000 people of Filipino descent live in Winnipeg, nearly double the entire South Asian population of the city.

Is that right??

I just see south Asians every where. it seems like every car that passes me on the street has the "Khanda" thing dangling from their review mirror. Or the "no farmers no food" stickers with the map of punjab. Many jobs seems to have become dominated by Indians now. Could just be where i live I guess.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Wpgstvsouth94

Anyone know what’s going on with the population estimates for Manitoba? I’ve been watching it lately and we just keep dropping. A month ago we were 1,392,895 but now we are all the way down to 1,392,002. Super weird we are about to drop to 1,391,000 again. Any opinions??

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...018005-eng.htm

An old post (late April 2022), but interesting. Stats Canada gives the total number of people living in Manitoba at the beginning of Q2 (April 1 , 2022), as 1,401,967, which is nearly 10,000 more people than the population clock.

I wonder what caused the discrepancy?

[Winnipegger]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

An old post (late April 2022), but interesting. Stats Canada gives the total number of people living in Manitoba at the beginning of Q2 (April 1 , 2022), as 1,401,967, which is nearly 10,000 more people than the population clock.

I wonder what caused the discrepancy?

Statistics Canada does regular revisions to population estimates, and usually many of those adjustments occur after a census has been released to account for new information. This is because the data are just that, estimates.

For example, during the pandemic Manitoba's Vital Statistics agency had a massive backlog so the total amount of births and deaths being recorded was out of date most of the time. But at some point, StatCan needs to obtain that information from Manitoba Vital Stats even if it isn't accurate (due to the backlog). So when StatCan publishes the population numbers of Manitoba for 2021, they may be inaccurate due to them receiving inaccurate statistics from Vital Stats. Then, later in the year once Vital Stats catches up, StatCan will add the revised info the next time they update the national/provincial population numbers which only happens once per year, usually in February. You can often find this type information spread across the various footnotes in the StatCan data tables.

Population estimates rely on a variety of provincial agencies outside the Federal Government to accurately calculate all the various components of population change (births, deaths, immigration, international post-secondary students, etc.), and things may not always be accurate or 100% complete by the time StatCan requests the info. That, combined with census data being updated every 5 years, can lead to historical population estimate revisions.

Also, I'm always surprised how much stock this forum and the national forum put in the population clock. I would never use the population clock numbers for any models or formal work because they are just representative. StatCan doesn't actually know how many immigrations arrive in BC on April 4 at 10:35 AM. They likely just take a look at aggregate numbers over the past few quarters and distribute them evenly over the next quarter while adjusting for seasonal effects. It's not really indicative of what's actually happening since it is just taking historical trends and projecting them forward. It's better than nothing obviously, but quarterly population estimates will always be the best number to look at, and will always supersede the accuracy of the population clock. The population clock is just for fun IMO.

[thebasketballgeek]

I think an underlooked part is that people haven’t been really taking their yearly vacation (atleast I haven’t) so people just want to gtfo any way possible. A lot of my friends that moved just wanted a change of pace that Winnipeg didn’t offer to them. I noticed when I took vacations I actually appreciate the small things that the city/province offers like cleaner air, better tap water, minimal traffic, and of course the people.

Living in Manitoba for 2 years continuously and dealing with the crazy weather takes an unbelievable mental toll on someone too. My thinking on why people are moving out is nothing unusual for interprovincial migration in this province for the last century which is weather, flat geography, and incompetent governance.

[esquire]

I've heard the theory that outflows have continued as usual, but inflows have slowed down due to COVID. Not sure that there's anything to that though, as you'd think both would be equally affected?

[Biff]

Stats Can update - Manitoba has passed 1.4m

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

3rd quarter population numbers are out for July 1st.

The population clock has been updated and now reads as follows as of 11:15am Atlantic:

Newfoundland and Labrador 527,779

Prince Edward Island 172,354

Nova Scotia 1,027,618

New Brunswick 818,004

Quebec 8,721,475

Ontario 15,186,163

Manitoba 1,413,597

Saskatchewan 1,197,950

Alberta 4,565,970

British Columbia 5,349,660

Yukon 43,943

Northwest Territories 45,586

Nunavut 40,702

[Winnipegger]

Originally Posted by Biff

Stats Can update - Manitoba has passed 1.4m

Province had recent record high net international migration (+24,000 people) but also recent record high net interprovincial out-migration (-10,000 people).

So much of Canada's economic growth is tied to population growth, and yet our local politicians basically ignore what is one of the biggest glaring issues in this province: thousands of people leaving for Alberta, Ontario, and BC every single year. If Manitoba had "average" out-migration for the last 30 years, we'd have an extra 150,000 people and Winnipeg would have an extra 100,000 people more-or-less.

Politicians across all sides of the spectrum always talk about "growing the economy" but consistently fail to even acknowledge the biggest issue, which is people leaving the province. Sure, politicians here have no control over our cold weather or lack of mountains or lack of Big 5 bank head offices or lack of oil in the ground, but there are a few things related to infrastructure, education, cleanliness, and reconciliation with Indigenous people they could be doing better at that would help at least stem some of the tide of people leaving.

More people will choose to stay here if they feel safe, if the province looks clean, post-secondary education quality has a good reputation, infrastructure and transportation is adequate, parks are well kept, and local businesses see value in expanding and providing well paying jobs.

But so as long as people keep leaving in such large amounts, businesses will seek areas with bigger customer bases and job/salary growth will be more limited.