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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 5:59 PM
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Columbus Is Firing On All Cylinders Demographically, Economically, & Culturally

Midwestern Breakout?


December 17, 2018

By Aaron M. Renn

Read More: https://www.city-journal.org/columbus-ohio-growth

Quote:
.....

A lot has gone right in Columbus. Its metro-area population has grown by 172,000, or 9 percent, since 2010, tops in the Midwest among larger regions. It has added almost 400,000 people since 2000, putting it fewer than 25,000 behind the much-larger Chicago metro’s increase. The Columbus metropolitan area now exceeds 2 million people, and some demographers project that it will hit 3 million by 2050.

- Like many cities, Columbus is experiencing an apartment-building boom, in part because of an influx of educated young people. Among the city’s younger adults aged 25–34, 43.1 percent have college degrees; overall, 36 percent of adults have them. Those figures lag the top national talent hubs but rank in the top half of major metros nationally. — Talented newcomers have helped fire up a technology startup sector, symbolized by the $1.1 billion purchase of local software firm CoverMyMeds by San Francisco–based McKesson. Columbus is home to one of the largest midwestern venture-capital funds, Drive Capital, headed by two former partners at marquee Silicon Valley venture-capital firm Sequoia.

- Columbus benefits from numerous advantages over other Ohio and midwestern locations. It’s both the capital and home to the state’s flagship university, Ohio State, whose mid-north-side location is the third-largest college campus in the United States. Its economy was less dependent on manufacturing than that of some other cities, like Cleveland and Detroit, so it weathered the sector’s decline more effectively. — Thanks to farsighted local leadership, Columbus could continue to grow geographically, like a Sunbelt city, because it required landowners to agree to annexation before it would extend water service, whereas many other midwestern cities either didn’t negotiate the right to annex suburbs in advance of giving them water, or their suburbs didn’t need such service.

- Other major cities in Ohio are competing for state dollars, too. Cincinnati and Cleveland were much bigger than Columbus, until recently; they boast stronger legacy cultural institutions. Columbus has major professional sports teams only in hockey and soccer, for example, and the soccer team has threatened to leave. And the city may be America’s largest not known on a first-name basis it’s still typically listed as “Columbus, Ohio,” to avoid confusion with other U.S. cities by the same name. — The city suffered a jolt in 2007 when NetJets, a Warren Buffett–controlled company selling fractional jet ownership, nearly moved its headquarters to the Sunbelt. In response, the Columbus region revamped its economic-development approach, in part leading to the successful Columbus 2020 strategy.

- The city also focused on downtown revitalization, building up its Arena District on the north side home to the city’s convention center and the NHL’s Blue Jackets. Culturally, Columbus has played catch-up. An emerging museum campus west of downtown, on the far side of the Scioto River, will include the new National Veterans Memorial and Museum and exhibits from New York’s famed American Museum of Natural History. — Though it trails Sunbelt boomtowns in growth, Columbus is a strong performer, roughly comparable with other midwestern capitals like Indianapolis and Minneapolis–St. Paul. Like them, it appears to be benefiting from statewide decline, drawing new residents from struggling outer regions.

- Cities like Nashville and Austin draw significant national migration, but Columbus overwhelmingly welcomes its newcomers from elsewhere in Ohio. For now, this is an advantage; long-term, it may not be, in a state that’s otherwise declining. And Columbus’s cadres of “booster bros,” who can’t abide criticism of their city, will likely make it tougher to address future challenges. — Its limitations aside, Columbus is improving demographically, economically, and culturally. Except for Chicago, no midwestern city has cracked the code on how to attract newcomers from outside the region. There’s no reason that Columbus can’t be the breakout from the midwestern pack, making itself into a national, not just regional, success story.

.....



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  #2  
Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 6:09 PM
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Indianapolis seems very similar in a lot of ways minus the large state university within city limits. Both are very different than the former industrial cities in the Midwest, more similar to Sunbelt cities in a lot of ways.
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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 6:23 PM
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state capitol + flagship state university = success in the midwest.
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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 6:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
state capitol + flagship state university + not living in the shadow of a major city = success in the midwest.
FYP.

See Madison, WI and Lansing, MI for example.
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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 6:52 PM
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Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17 View Post

See Madison, WI
huh? madison is doing great these days.

it's certainly outperforming milwaukee in any measure of growth that i can think of.
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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 6:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
huh? madison is doing really well these days.

it's certainly outperforming milwaukee in any measure of growth that i can think of.
It's doing modestly, but hardly booming like Columbus and is still is under Milwaukee's magnetic pull.

I'd compare it more to Ann Arbor.
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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 7:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
state capitol + flagship state university = success in the midwest.
Add Minneapolis/St Paul to that list. The only thing holding them back are the brutal winters.
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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 7:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17 View Post
It's doing modestly, but hardly booming like Columbus
madison's growth is in columbus' ballpark.


2010 - 2017 MSA population growth:

columbus - 9.29%

madison - 8.06%




Quote:
Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17 View Post
I'd compare it more to Ann Arbor.
madison is much more of its own independent deal than ann arbor is.

as the crow flies:

milwaukee to madison - 75 miles

detroit to ann arbor - 35 miles


it's also a state capital, which allows it to wield influence statewide.
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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 7:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
state capitol + flagship state university = success in the midwest.
The Austin recipe.
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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 7:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
madison's growth is in columbus' ballpark.


2010 - 2017 MSA population growth:

columbus - 9.29%

madison - 8.06%





madison is much more of its own independent deal than ann arbor is.

as the crow flies:

milwaukee to madison - 75 miles

detroit to ann arbor - 35 miles


it's also a state capital, which allows it to wield influence statewide.
Agree that Madison is far more independent than Ann Arbor. Ann Arbor is part of Metro Detroit, whether or not people will admit it.

East Lansing is about the same distance from Detroit as Madison from Milwaukee.
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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 7:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
madison's growth is in columbus' ballpark.


2010 - 2017 MSA population growth:

columbus - 9.29%

madison - 8.06%





madison is much more of its own independent deal than ann arbor is.

as the crow flies:

milwaukee to madison - 75 miles

detroit to ann arbor - 35 miles


it's also a state capital, which allows it to wield influence statewide.
In absolute numbers, Columbus is growing much faster. It has added roughly 100,000 people just in the city proper this decade.

Ohio in general is different from most states in the Midwest (with exception to Missouri) because the socio-economic influence is fairly evenly divided between 4 mid-tier metros of similar size, which works to Columbus' benefit because it's on equal footing with its peers when it comes to competing for individuals who desire big city amenities in the state.

That's not the case in Wisconsin. With Milwaukee being home to much of the state's big city amenties (minus The Packers) and 35% of the population, this stunts Madison's potential and thus its growth isn't nearly as exponential as Columbus is experiencing, Just like with Ann Arbor and Lansing in Michigan.

Last edited by skyscraperpage17; Dec 19, 2018 at 7:26 PM.
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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 7:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17 View Post
In absolute numbers, Columbus is growing much faster. It has added roughly 100,000 people just in the city prpper this decade.

Ohio in general is different from most states in the Mudwest (with exception to Missouri) because the socio-economic influence is fairly evenly divided between 4 mid-tier metros of similar size, which works to Columbus' benefit because it's on equal footing with its peers when it comes to competing for individuals who desire big city amenities in the state.

That's not the case in Wisconsin. With Milwaukee being home to much of the state's big city amenties (minus The Packers) and 35% of the population, this stunts Madison's potential and thus its growth isn't nearly as exponential as Columbus is experiencing.
Madison seems like Wisconsin's economic bright spot more than Milwaukee. I know two people who have gone to live in Madison for work in the last decade, and when I first came out of school I turned down an offer to work in Madison.

Wisconsin has a much smaller population than Ohio, but Madison and Columbus account for a similar percentage of their respective state's residents.
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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 7:31 PM
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I would like to check out Columbus.

My fear is that, like most boomtowns in America these days, I will be vastly disappointed.

Growth is boring.
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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 8:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17 View Post
In absolute numbers, Columbus is growing much faster.
well duh, columbus has roughly 3x as many people as madison to begin with, so of course it's going to add a lot more in raw numbers with a similar growth percentage.

but my point wasn't that madison is on columbus' overall level (it's not), my point was that being a state capital (SC) and/or having the state flagship university (FU) is a pretty good predictor for the fastest growing urban centers in the midwest these days.



2010-2017 MSA growth for midwest metros over 500,000:

des moines: 13.39% (SC)
columbus 9.29% (SC + FU)
madison: 8.06% (SC + FU)
omaha: 7.85%
twin cities: 7.52% (SC + FU)

indianapolis: 7.45% (SC)
grand rapids: 7.10%
kansas city: 5.95%
cincinnati: 3.05%
wichita: 2.33%

milwaukee: 1.31%
chicago: 0.76%
st. louis: 0.70%
dayton: 0.52%
detroit: 0.39%

akron: 0.04%
cleveland: -0.89%
toledo: -1.04%
youngstown: -4.21%

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_areas




lansing (with 2.94% MSA growth) doesn't fit this general mold, and that's ok.

it's not absolute law, just generally true.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Dec 20, 2018 at 6:12 PM.
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Old Posted Dec 19, 2018, 10:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
I would like to check out Columbus.

My fear is that, like most boomtowns in America these days, I will be vastly disappointed.

Growth is boring.
Cincy and Cleveland are far more interesting to urban enthusiasts.

Columbus feels like Indianapolis but worse downtown and better/more neighborhood infill.
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Old Posted Dec 20, 2018, 1:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Cincy and Cleveland are far more interesting to urban enthusiasts.

Columbus feels like Indianapolis but worse downtown and better/more neighborhood infill.
Indy struck me as a mini Chicago while Columbus more of a sunbelt city in the middle of Ohio. The latter kinda reminds me of Austin.
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Old Posted Dec 20, 2018, 2:50 PM
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Indy struck me as a mini Chicago while Columbus more of a sunbelt city in the middle of Ohio. The latter kinda reminds me of Austin.
Indy feels like a jumbo windswept central Illinois city to me with a better economy...lots of frame houses, lack of any major neighborhood centers of gravity, not located on a navigable waterway (but located at a major tangle of interstates), no geographical boundaries to growth on any sides. Not a lot like Chicago at all to me except for the foot traffic and chains downtown (and the fact that it is prairie midwestern city that does on the other hand feel semi-Illinoisan). I guess it (or the people) feels more like Chicago than say Cincinnati.

Unlike Indy, Columbus has some interesting urban fabric that gets swept under the rug in these conversations for some reason.
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Old Posted Dec 20, 2018, 3:02 PM
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Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
Indianapolis seems very similar in a lot of ways minus the large state university within city limits. Both are very different than the former industrial cities in the Midwest, more similar to Sunbelt cities in a lot of ways.
Indianapolis has good numbers, but still feels very archetype prairie-rustbelt midwestern in practice. Even coming from St. Louis, large parts of the city feel post industrial bleak to me like a giant Decatur, IL.


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Old Posted Dec 20, 2018, 3:09 PM
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^ agreed on all counts.

if anything in the midwest is a mini-chicago, it's milwaukee, not indy.

but then, because of the great fire, chicago is much brickier than any of the non-river midwest cities (cincy & st. louis). so none of these analogies ever line up super neatly.


and yeah, columbus has some quality urbanism. german village may not quite rise to the level of cincy's OTR or anything, but it's absolutely the type of intact 19th century neighborhood that any urbanist would enjoy a stroll through.

also, at ~3 miles, the high street corridor through short north & OSU has got to be one of the longest, mostly cohesive, continuous urban retail streets in the midwest. i've never found anything in indy's neighborhoods on that level in terms of scale and scope.
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Old Posted Dec 20, 2018, 3:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
state capitol + flagship state university = success in the midwest.
It's too bad they didn't put Missouri's state capitol and state university in the same city. They're close, but not quite close enough for them to gel into the same metropolis.
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