Many Hotter Days to come

[MolsonExport]

While daydreaming about how it seems like every stinking day this summer is above 30C (here in London), I came across this mapping tool which forecasts the expected number of very hot days (30C+) for future time periods, as the result of climate change.

https://climateatlas.ca/map/canada/plus30_2030_85#

Under conditions of high climate change ("business as usual", which is where we are heading), here are the forecasts for selected Canadian Cities (against historical averages) moving from East to West:

Coefficients to the right represent mean # days of +30 Celcius days:

Halifax:
1976-2005 0.9
2051-2080 11.9

Moncton:
1976-2005 8.4
2051-2080 41.6

Montreal:
1976-2005 11.2
2051-2080 54.3

Ottawa:
1976-2005 13.5
2051-2080 57.0

Toronto:
1976-2005 11.9
2051-2080 55.3

London:
1976-2005 12.3
2051-2080 60.5 (Jesus!)

Winnipeg:
1976-2005 14.3
2051-2080 52.1

Regina:
1976-2005 17.5
2051-2080 53.7

Calgary:
1976-2005 5.2
2051-2080 32.0

Kelowna:
1976-2005 23.7
2051-2080 62.2 (yikes!)

Vancouver:
1976-2005 1.0
2051-2080 16.3

Yellowknife:
1976-2005 0.3
2051-2080 7.0

Whitehorse:
1976-2005 0.5
2051-2080 8.7

[someone123]

In the weather thread people celebrate extreme hot days and arguing what places are like based on normals and both seem a bit off to me.

On the first point I don't know anybody who liked the heat dome here. I like when we have moderate summer weather, 20-25 and sunny. In recent years it feels like we flip-flop between cool rainy weather and extreme heat (near-30+) which maybe averages out to good weather but isn't ideal. This is what happened this year. We had 14 and rain on some days and then a week or two later 30+ and a new heat wave is coming now. 30+ days used to be rare in Vancouver.

The normals in Canada are out of date and most locations are clearly getting warmer. The current normals end in 2010 while we are up to 2022, but beyond that the normal period is centered around 1995 which is long enough ago that climate has shifted significantly since then. Due to climate change it is possible we basically won't see some of the coldest conditions of the 80's and 90's anymore or that they will go from 1 in 10 year events to 1 in 50 year events.

[Proof Sheet]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

While daydreaming about how it seems like every stinking day this summer is above 30C (here in London), I came across this mapping tool which forecasts the expected number of very hot days (30C+) for future time periods, as the result of climate change.

https://climateatlas.ca/map/canada/plus30_2030_85#

Under conditions of high climate change ("business as usual", which is where we are heading), here are the forecasts for selected Canadian Cities (against historical averages) moving from East to West:

Coefficients to the right represent mean # days of +30 Celcius days:

Halifax:
1976-2005 0.9
2051-2080 11.9

Moncton:
1976-2005 8.4
2051-2080 41.6

Montreal:
1976-2005 11.2
2051-2080 54.3

Ottawa:
1976-2005 13.5
2051-2080 57.0

Toronto:
1976-2005 11.9
2051-2080 55.3

London:
1976-2005 12.3
2051-2080 60.5 (Jesus!)

Winnipeg:
1976-2005 14.3
2051-2080 52.1

Regina:
1976-2005 17.5
2051-2080 53.7

Calgary:
1976-2005 5.2
2051-2080 32.0

Kelowna:
1976-2005 23.7
2051-2080 62.2 (yikes!)

Vancouver:
1976-2005 1.0
2051-2080 16.3

Yellowknife:
1976-2005 0.3
2051-2080 7.0

Whitehorse:
1976-2005 0.5
2051-2080 8.7

Maple Creek must be in triple digits.........................................................................................
already

Any reason why Ottawa has more 30 + days than Toronto? Lake Ontario keeping Toronto cooler?

To me, +25 and dry is great. I don't understand the appeal of 35+ and very humid. It saps my energy.

[Denscity]

Oh don't worry about Kelowna's 62.2 some of the Interior cities have already experienced that many in one year. Not an average year however lol.

[Truenorth00]

Can't wait for the, "Weather is not climate," brigade.



https://www.cambridge.org/core/journ...212378E32985A7

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Can't wait for the, "Weather is not climate," brigade.

The federal government says it prioritizes climate change so much and yet they don't do a good job of collecting and disseminating climate data in Canada.

[Razor]

It's the extreme weather events. Some sun worshippers, not looking at the big picture, may celebrate things warming up for them, but along with milder winter there will be freezing ice storms, tornadoes in the summer, droughts, fires etc. Events we're experiencing now in fact.

[MolsonExport]

I see funnel clouds several times per year in London. Saw one close to our home last night. Saw a Tornado about 2 kms north of us a few years back. We had two Tornados touch down in London a couple of months ago.

2 tornadoes touched down in London, Ont. during Saturday’s storm, Western researchers say

[WhipperSnapper]

This week has been hot, hazy and,humid in Toronto. Otherwise, I can't complain. It's been many years since the air conditioner has been off for so many summer days. Of course, that usually means September and October will be hellish.

[WhipperSnapper]

California and the Rain Forest will be deserts. Extreme weather will make most of the US economically unfeasible for habitation. ($750 billion in the last 5 years )Number of days with 30 or more degrees temperance will probably be the least concerns.

We may want to consider building a wall in advance and let the next Trump administration pay for it.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I see funnel clouds several times per year in London. Saw one close to our home last night. Saw a Tornado about 2 kms north of us a few years back. We had two Tornados touch down in London a couple of months ago.

2 tornadoes touched down in London, Ont. during Saturday’s storm, Western researchers say

Even Vancouver had a small tornado last year.

I didn't check out the map tool yet, but along with the number of +30 days, I wonder if days above 40C will also be significant. In spite of this, Canada is likely to become a destination for climate refugees, and we are not ready for it.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper

California and the Rain Forest will be deserts. Extreme weather will make most of the US economically unfeasible for habitation. ($750 billion in the last 5 years )Number of days with 30 or more degrees temperance will probably be the least concerns.

We may want to consider building a wall in advance and let the next Trump administration pay for it.

I made this point before, but half of the US has a climate similar to the inhabited parts of Canada. Why would people be rushing borders to get into Canada when half the US has the same climate?

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I made this point before, but half of the US has a climate similar to the inhabited parts of Canada. Why would people be rushing borders to get into Canada when half the US has the same climate?

yup. The US will likely see a reversal of growth trends back towards the Northeast and Midwest, but even then, I'm not so certain. Growth will likely mostly slow in the far west where water supply is limited, but beyond that, I don't see it shifting majorly. A/C and average hot days are already quite high in much of the south and doesn't seem to be bothering people. Water supply is the bigger issue.

We are possibly already seeing this to some extent, with a lot of the rust belt posting it's best growth rates in decades in the 2020 census despite the US as a whole growing the slowest it ever has.

Generally across the board most of the Country seems to generally warm by about 2 degrees between the 1975-2005 median and 2021-2051 median according to that graph. So expect the next few decades to be significantly warmer than your childhood, which I think most people already realize. Most of Southern Ontario's frost-free period seems to be lengthened by about 20 days, and median daily highs in the winter in much of Southern Ontario are also due to rise above freezing, which we are arguably already seeing. Mild winters with longer, hotter summers, much like what the US North-east and midwest already experiences, will likely be the standard going forward.

[WarrenC12]

Can't wait for the next big conspiracy: UV rays are not real. It's all about "big sunscreen" and controlling you through "skin-based vaccination". And they say it's not good unless you keep re-applying it? WAKE UP SHEEPLE.

[hipster duck]

By all accounts, the 1300s was a terrible century. It was one of the few where the population of the world was lower at century's end than at its start. Analysis of literary texts from that period even show a striking absence of concepts like parental love for one's children. What was the point? Most of them would die anyway.

But we're still here. And the monuments and achievements of the 1300s still endure: the Duomo of Florence, the mechanical clock, Dante's Divine Comedy.

We don't even have to go that far back. My maternal grandmother was born into an elite family in Kunming, Republic of China, in 1923. She had servants at her beck and call and her father had concubines with bound feet. She left to study in Hong Kong in 1943 and never saw her family or their money again. All executed by the Communists; the family mansion turned into a garrison. She spent her last days in the 1990s in Canadian social housing surrounded by grandchildren who could barely speak her mother tongue. Her last words? "I had a happy life".

It's a very Western conceit to believe that the world is going to end one generation from now. Other cultures have a more cavalier attitude about climate change, and I'm wondering if they're not wrong. People from cultures that have experienced trauma more recently also aren't that afraid to hit the reset button. It's actually kind of liberating.

It won't be easy, but we'll get through this. Some of our institutions probably won't, but they were rotten anyway.

[goodgrowth]

Originally Posted by someone123

The federal government says it prioritizes climate change so much and yet they don't do a good job of collecting and disseminating climate data in Canada.

Because they'd rather talk about projections than actual recorded data...

[someone123]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

It's a very Western conceit to believe that the world is going to end one generation from now. Other cultures have a more cavalier attitude about climate change, and I'm wondering if they're not wrong. People from cultures that have experienced trauma more recently also aren't that afraid to hit the reset button. It's actually kind of liberating.

It is a difficult conversation but you always have to keep these things in perspective. Covid was very similar with the risks not registering in much of the world while we pulled out all the stops here, probably with only marginal impact in the end for a lot of the policies.

I think there is something you might call the "clockwork society fallacy" related to "scientism", which is that you can do a bit of analysis and then mechanistically project out the consequences of that but it's much harder to say what else might change in the future or how people will react. As an example, lots of people manage to survive in Arizona but there are projections about huge numbers of people dying farther north due to heat waves. That is just an issue we have to contemplate and respond to. By and large I think that given the way the world is if we have good institutions and politics we will (massively) outgrow any global warming problems.

If you want to complain about stratas, we had a huge heatwave that killed hundreds of people last year here and they still fight against AC unit installation. That is not a climate change issue, that's a boring small time social issue.

BTW a second fallacy is that economic growth is zero sum in some way (getting physical stuff, environmental impact; there are different flavours) and so we have to either have more negative environmental impact to have a better standard of living. This is not true at all, and in the future we may have much larger energy budgets with a lower impact. The environment overall was more degraded in a lot of places centuries in the past than it is today, due to deforestation and pollution. CO2 is a milder problem than 1600's deforestation or Victorian-era pea soup coal fog, although it is global in scope.

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by someone123

The federal government says it prioritizes climate change so much and yet they don't do a good job of collecting and disseminating climate data in Canada.

Yeah, Harper decimated a whole bunch of data records. We were angry about it.

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

By all accounts, the 1300s was a terrible century. It was one of the few where the population of the world was lower at century's end than at its start. Analysis of literary texts from that period even show a striking absence of concepts like parental love for one's children. What was the point? Most of them would die anyway.

But we're still here. And the monuments and achievements of the 1300s still endure: the Duomo of Florence, the mechanical clock, Dante's Divine Comedy.

We don't even have to go that far back. My maternal grandmother was born into an elite family in Kunming, Republic of China, in 1923. She had servants at her beck and call and her father had concubines with bound feet. She left to study in Hong Kong in 1943 and never saw her family or their money again. All executed by the Communists; the family mansion turned into a garrison. She spent her last days in the 1990s in Canadian social housing surrounded by grandchildren who could barely speak her mother tongue. Her last words? "I had a happy life".

It's a very Western conceit to believe that the world is going to end one generation from now. Other cultures have a more cavalier attitude about climate change, and I'm wondering if they're not wrong. People from cultures that have experienced trauma more recently also aren't that afraid to hit the reset button. It's actually kind of liberating.

It won't be easy, but we'll get through this. Some of our institutions probably won't, but they were rotten anyway.

Maybe you could argue that the unprecedented stability of the West since the Second World War has made us soft, entitled and terrified of tectonic change?

Great story about your grandmother!

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Can't wait for the next big conspiracy: UV rays are not real. It's all about "big sunscreen" and controlling you through "skin-based vaccination". And they say it's not good unless you keep re-applying it? WAKE UP SHEEPLE.

I can already see Fill MyCavity finding the "proof" that this is so.