Political News Affecting St. John's

[SignalHillHiker]

A companion thread to Jeddy's Economic News one.

In this thread, please post any political news that affects St. John's - excluding news related to the municipal election campaign, which has its own thread by PoscStudent.

[SignalHillHiker]

Liberals, NDP call for fewer seats in House of Assembly

"I believe 48 MHAs is too much for the Parliament that we have right now and the areas that we represent," said Ball.

"I think we could do the job representing the people of this province with 40 MHAs," added Ball.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfou...-20130301.html

[jeddy1989]

Eastern School District too Big?

There's a debate on as to whether the Eastern School District is too large.

The MHA for St. Barbe says Education Minister Clyde Jackman should be advocating for students, instead of lamenting the cost of educating them. Jim Bennett says Jackman's statement that two school boards in the province should amalgamate to reduce costs is a failure to realize education is an investment, not an expense. Bennett says he thinks all the school boards except the Eastern School Board are working well. He thinks the Eastern School Board should be divided to respond the the needs of both rural and urban students.

http://www.vocm.com/newsarticle.asp?...31506&latest=1

[SignalHillHiker]

I don't know if we are actually over-represented by 48 MHAs in comparison to other jurisdictions, but I do know that the consolidation of the province's population on the Avalon Peninsula probably means that some of the large, rural districts could be combined.

Here is what we have right now.

Newfoundland and Labrador:



Northeast Avalon:



In my opinion, the south coast of Newfoundland, from Channel-Port-aux-Basques to the Burin Peninsula, has FAR too many districts for such a small population.

[PoscStudent]

The last post in this thread is interesting considering it's currently a hot topic. I don't know if St. John's will be affected by this or not. It's currently the topic on CBC Cross Talk and someone who previously ran for the Liberals is saying that the seats in St. John's should be cut. I remember seeing Yvonne Jones question one time whether St. John's should have fewer seats.

[statbass]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

The last post in this thread is interesting considering it's currently a hot topic. I don't know if St. John's will be affected by this or not. It's currently the topic on CBC Cross Talk and someone who previously ran for the Liberals is saying that the seats in St. John's should be cut. I remember seeing Yvonne Jones question one time whether St. John's should have fewer seats.

Hmm... interesting. I believe that most districts are pretty much evenly distributed in terms of their populations and electors with St. John's metro having, on average, slightly higher numbers in both categories. Given that, it doesn't seem logical to cut the number of St. John's seats, but I realize that argument is more political than mathematical in nature.

The smaller districts by sheer numbers seem to be South Coast and Labrador. It would make sense to consolidate in those districts first. However, no matter what way you slice it up it's gonna draw some heat one way or another. Definitely not an easy task.

Does anyone else find it ironic that Yvonne Jones questioned the number of seats in St. John's? You know, given the fact she represented one of the smallest districts in the province... food for thought.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by statbass

Hmm... interesting. I believe that most districts are pretty much evenly distributed in terms of their populations and electors with St. John's metro having, on average, slightly higher numbers in both categories. Given that, it doesn't seem logical to cut the number of St. John's seats, but I realize that argument is more political than mathematical in nature.

The smaller districts by sheer numbers seem to be South Coast and Labrador. It would make sense to consolidate in those districts first. However, no matter what way you slice it up it's gonna draw some heat one way or another. Definitely not an easy task.

Does anyone else find it ironic that Yvonne Jones questioned the number of seats in St. John's? You know, given the fact she represented one of the smallest districts in the province... food for thought.

I believe at the time she mentioned it the Liberals were still a non-factor in the city. The Liberals have historically been stronger in rural areas so it's not surprising they wouldn't want seats lost in there.

Here's a list of the population of each district and it's population change between 2006 and 2011. http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/Statistic...L_PED_2011.pdf

[SignalHillHiker]

Paul Davis will cut the number of MHAs down by 10 before the next election. From 48 to 38.

[statbass]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Paul Davis will cut the number of MHAs down by 10 before the next election. From 48 to 38.

It's hard to speculate if districts will be merged or new boundaries created and new districts formed. May be a combination of both.

I do, however, think that St. John's Metro will loose a couple seats. Again, based on pure numbers this shouldn't happen but the decision will be political. Just my speculation...

[PoscStudent]

The city will probably lose a seat but I don't think you'll see the metro area really impacted.

[Trevor3]

This is really intriguing.

I think the northeast Avalon will lose 2 for sure, perhaps 3 is the commission gets stuck trying to reach the "magic 10". Though some districts are really small in population, like those in Labrador, there is legislation which states Labrador has to have at least 4 seats, so reductions there are a non-starter, despite how small Cartwright-L'Anse au Clare is population-wise.

Likely, we'll see principle towns (Clarenville, Grand Falls-Windsor, Stephenville) and their bedroom communities end up with their own districts while the hinterlands with a couple thousand here and a couple thousand there get pushed together.

We'll probably get a revival of the old riding of 'Stephenville' encompassing Port au Port. Then St. George's-Burgeo and another for all of the south coast from Lapoile across. That eliminates 1 seat from the southwest corner, which is all that is possible given that the new southcoast riding would essentially be about 15% of the island's land mass (I'd hate to represent that riding).

Humber East/West, Humber Valley and Bay of Islands will probably get juggled around to displace a couple thousand people into each. Resulting in something like Bay of Island North, Bay of Islands South, Humber Valley, reducing one seat from the Corner Brook area.

They could probably reduce a seat some where between Bonavista North and Burin by bumping the lines up/down accordingly. Exploits, GFW-Buchans, and GFW-Green Bay South could probably be reduced to 2. Something like GFW-North and GFW-Interior maybe?

Regardless, we're going to see a lot of stuff where they take 3-4 districts and blend parts of all of them to end up with 2-3. I think St. John's is going to bear a lot more of the brunt than people expect simply because the districts are so small geographically, in some cases just a few city blocks. Conversely, the entire west side of the northern peninsula is one district and, though the population is small, it takes about 7 hours to drive from one end of the district to the other. There just isn't room to expand some of these rural ridings because they've already been too far stretched. Even the one I think will happen for the southcoast will be entirely ferry serviced and would actually takes DAYS to campaign through in an election.

[SignalHillHiker]

Davis has said the Labrador seats may be cut, even if the legislation protecting them has to changed.

Ideally, we could divide Labrador up into three seats with equal population and then base the island and Metro on that so all seats have the same number. It'd require adding quite a few in Metro and more on the rural island... but it'd be more fair.

Rural NL right now is hideously over-represented, but you can't make districts much bigger or its unreasonable to expect one, single MHA to serve it all.

[Marty_Mcfly]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newfoun...ile:Nl2011.PNG

At first I thought a lot of parts of rural NL were being over-represented, but after looking at the electoral map it isn't as bad as I thought. So I think now the region cuts will probably be a healthy mix of rural and urban.

I can see, or would suggest:

-Losing 2 of 4 in Labrador, splitting the area up into either east/west, or north/south
-Combining 3 of the Norther Peninsula districts into 2.
-Combining 2 of the Southern Burin Peninsula districts, leaving the norther part in it's current district, or a re-alignment so that the entire peninsula falls under one MHA (though it'd be heavily populated).
-Conception Bay North shrinking from 4 to 2-3 districts
-Some of the north-east coast's smaller districts coming together
-Some shifting/elimination of St. John's urban areas.

[PoscStudent]

The media has brought up that the legislation says Labrador must be divided up into four seats but the legislation also says that the island be divided into 44 seats. That's why it needs to be amended.

[Trevor3]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

The media has brought up that the legislation says Labrador must be divided up into four seats but the legislation also says that the island be divided into 44 seats. That's why it needs to be amended.

Ok, that makes it a bit more flexible. I wouldn't be entirely against a Straits riding that encompassed the tip of the northern peninsla and a good chunk of southern labrador. That region generally functions as one anyway, with a ton of movement across the strait.

Unorthodox for sure, but it could work.

[SignalHillHiker]

The opposition intends to filibuster the legislation that would start the seat-cutting process.

[PoscStudent]

Liberals are worried about this because they've moved ahead with nominating so many candidates. If seats are cut it could cause a lot of infighting.

[SignalHillHiker]

So much talk of Labrador separatism in the House. 3/4 Labrador MHAs have openly advocated for it.

"Labrador doesn't need Newfoundland", "We'd be the richest country in the world without you", etc.

It's only the PC member from Lab West fighting back. "How dare you stand in this sacred House and advocate separatism! You don't speak for my people!".

House is in recess. Debate continues at 12:10 a.m. Second all-night session in a week.

[PoscStudent]

So all done now! 40 seats, 4 for Labrador. 8 seats will be coming from the island and according to a prof at MUN they will need to mainly come from rural areas.

[statbass]

VOCM News
Jan 23,2015

MHAs pulled an all-nighter in the legislature and there have been some changes to Bill 42 on electoral boundaries.

MHAS have voted to amend the bill guaranteeing there will be an election this year. Premier Paul Davis says they have come to some agreements.

He says that there will be a reduction of 8 seats, not the 10 as originally proposed, and that Labrador will still be guaranteed 4 seats in the House of Assembly.
...

Here's Lorraine Michael's reaction:

She says the Liberals and the Tories worked together and "shunned" the NDP as if they didn't exist.

Well, that's because they pretty much don't exist.

http://www.vocm.com/newsarticle.asp?mn=2&ID=52201