How does Wynne keep her job?

[Phil McAvity]

The last two polls I saw placed her at the bottom of all premiers in Canada in terms of approval rating so can someone explain to me how Kathleen Wynne is still premier of Ontario? Christy Clark's approval rating was double that of Kathleen Wynne and following the BC election which was basically a tie between her Liberals and the NDP, she resigned.

Yet Wynne stays on.

[mistercorporate]

Think of how she got her job in the first place. As atrocious as she is, she could never be as bad as Tim Hudak. That would have been some North Korea level incompetence.

[lio45]

That's the kind of job you keep for ~4 years, whether or not you're good at it. If you have a majority, you can pretty much be as horrible as you want, and you won't get the boot until the following election.

(Generally speaking; I don't follow Ontario politics and have no opinion on Wynne.)

[ssiguy]

I think Wynne was hoping that a balanced budget as promised was delivered, a strong economy, a major cut in Hydro rates, and massive infrastructure spending would help her profile and that of the Liberal party but that hasn't materialized.

Still I wouldn't count her out as she is regaining some of her support in Toronto and the Tories are still weak in the GTA, Ottawa, London, and Windsor. Hudak also remains quite unpopular himself.

The one thing that the Tories and NDP also have in their favour s having a Liberal government in Ottawa. Ontario has a near flawless record of voting in the opposite part of who is governing in Ottawa and this has been true in the last half century.

[csbvan]

The economy is Ontario is pretty good, jobs are being created. Her opposition last election literally campaigned on reducing jobs...no matter how unpopular she is, how do you lose to that kind of idiocy?

[Bcasey25raptor]

Because Tories are unelectable and for good reason.

[WhipperSnapper]

She's the leader of a majority government. Why would she step down?

She has one real opponent. (NDP are still screwed over by the 1990s recession) That's a democracy at work.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Still I wouldn't count her out as she is regaining some of her support in Toronto and the Tories are still weak in the GTA, Ottawa, London, and Windsor. Hudak also remains quite unpopular himself.

I'm not so sure Hudak's popularity will affect the PCs at this point.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Phil McAvity

The last two polls I saw placed her at the bottom of all premiers in Canada in terms of approval rating so can someone explain to me how Kathleen Wynne is still premier of Ontario? Christy Clark's approval rating was double that of Kathleen Wynne and following the BC election which was basically a tie between her Liberals and the NDP, she resigned.

Yet Wynne stays on.

ermm...she hasn't yet been turfed by the voters. Look it up.

[vid]

The PCs were leading in the polls for a large part of the campaigns in 2007, 2011 and 2014 and lost every time due to their leader's incompetence, and all of that was despite the poor performance of the Liberals in public opinion polls before and after the election, especially in 2011 and 2014.

Whether or not Wynne gets re-elected next spring isn't based on her actual popularity, but rather on how capable the PCs are of picking up centrist votes; their base isn't big enough for them to win with that alone, and they've had some pretty major gaffes in previous campaigns (funding Islamic schools in 2007, reinstating prison chain gangs as a money saving initiative in 2011, and putting almost 10% of provincial employees onto the job market in 2014—that policy announcement alone gave Wynne a majority that she wouldn't have otherwise had). Look at the 2014 election and put yourself in the perspective of someone who is unemployed: The Liberals campaigned on spending billions on construction. The PCs ran on making 100,000 more people unemployed. Who you gonna vote for? Not Hudak.

Patrick Brown's path to victory has two prongs:

1: Disavow the social conservative and libertarian fringe of the PC party. They hurt the party's public image and give political opponents a target to attack during the campaign. The quieter right-wing candidates like Hillier and Osterhoof stay, the better that is for Patrick Brown. His party is going to need to run on a campaign on de-privatizing our hydro grid (something his own party started in 1998), he can't have pro-free-market goons fucking this up for him. If they jump ship to the Libertarian or Trillium party, who cares. They're fringe candidates and those are fringe parties, they were made for each other and they're less harmful to everyone there, even if they win a fluke seat. (The Liberatarians would likely have had a seat in Ontario if we actually adopted MMP in 2007.)

2: Swing the party toward the centre, similar to where it was under Bill Davis, to pull in all of those Liberal voters that are disappointed in Wynne. 39% supported her in 2014. 12% support her now. That's 27% of the province that wants to support a left/centre-left leader but not Wynne. If Patrick Brown takes that role, he will become the next premier.

The centre-left PC strategy with John Tory didn't win in 2007 because McGuinty and the Liberals were still in their first time, they hadn't fucked up enough yet and the disastrous second term of the PCs was still fresh in people's memory. But that was almost 15 years ago now, we've got around a million voters in this province (young people and new Canadians) who have little to no idea what the Common Sense revolution was. If the Liberals try to tag that to them again, having a more moderate platform will give them better ground to stand on and give them the ability to point at the Liberals as delusional scaremongers trying to hold on to power.

[Phil McAvity]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Her opposition last election literally campaigned on reducing jobs...

Great point. If there's one thing us right-wingers hate, it's jobs and prosperity.

Originally Posted by vid

1: Disavow the social conservative and libertarian fringe of the PC party. 2: Swing the party toward the centre,"

In other words become the Liberal party and stand for nothing but getting re-elected? It would probably work given how well the Liberals usually do federally.

Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper

She's the leader of a majority government. Why would she step down?

What part of the most unpopular premier in the country didn't you understand?

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

ermm...she hasn't yet been turfed by the voters. Look it up.

It's not just about democracy though, it's also how popular she is within the party because I would think that at a 70-71% disapproval rating the party would revolt against her because it's clear that Ontario voters find her revolting.

[ssiguy]

No matter what Wynne does }or doesn't} do, history is not on her side. Her good friend and fellow Liberal, Trudeau could be her downfall.

Ontario has a near flawless record of voting in the opposite party of who is governing in Ottawa although I really have no idea why. Consider..........

1960s........PC Robarts vs Lib Pearson
1970s .......PC Davis vs Lib Trudeau
1980s........Lib Peterson & NDP Ray vs PC Mulroney
1990s....... PC Harris vs Lib Chretien
2000s........Lib McGuinty vs Con Harper
2010s........Lib Wynne vs Con Harper

For an Ontario Premier, there is no such thing as having a party friend in Ottawa.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Phil McAvity

The last two polls I saw placed her at the bottom of all premiers in Canada in terms of approval rating so can someone explain to me how Kathleen Wynne is still premier of Ontario? Christy Clark's approval rating was double that of Kathleen Wynne and following the BC election which was basically a tie between her Liberals and the NDP, she resigned.

Yet Wynne stays on.

If Christine Elliott, who is quite moderate, had become PC leader as most people had expected, then I'd say that Wynne might have stepped down by now. But with Patrick Brown as PC leader, she actually has a good but not definite chance of leading the Liberals to victory again. I've written on here a lot about how weak of a leader Brown is and he can't take a position on anything. He's not a very good speaker and is not interesting. He came to my city and had a private meeting by invitation only about hydro issues at a downtown cafe. What type of opposition leader does that? There are many people upset about hydro issues in Timmins and Brown and the PCs shut out people with concerns about the current Liberal government! Our NDP MPP made note of that.

There are other reasons why Wynne is staying on and will have a chance of leading her party to victory. Some of them are:

-balanced budget
-strong economic growth
-low unemployment rate in all regions of the province
-major investments being made in infrastructure
-public transportation initiatives
-health care investments and advancements
-will not gut health care, education, social services
-advocate for human rights

Don't forget that many of the PCs said that Ontario would be an economic basketcase due to Wynne which of course hasn't happened.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by csbvan

The economy is Ontario is pretty good, jobs are being created. Her opposition last election literally campaigned on reducing jobs...no matter how unpopular she is, how do you lose to that kind of idiocy?

It makes me wonder what the PCs will campaign on this time? So far under Patrick Brown they can't take a position on anything!

High hydro rates? Wynne government reduced the rates so what will the PCs do that's different? Balance the budget? Wynne did it! Create conditions for fastest growing economy in Canada and for low unemployment rate? Wynne did it! Hmm, what's left? Well we could always go with "reduce the size of government right?"

[Loco101]

Innovative Research poll done July 13-19, 2017 by telephone:

Decided voters:

PC: 40%

Liberal: 36%

NDP: 17%

Green: 6%

Other: 1%

http://innovativeresearch.ca/pcs-mai...ls-in-ontario/

[haljackey]

I just want a minority government. That way politicians are more accountable because if they screw up they could lose in a snap election.

[eternallyme]

This poll would be catastrophic for Wynne. Although I have a hard time believing this.

http://www.qpbriefing.com/2017/07/31...poll-suggests/

If the Liberals are trailing by 18 points in Toronto, and even losing downtown, they would surely lose official party status and perhaps be reduced to Kim Campbell territory. If they lose a lot of seats in the 416, there is nowhere that they can expect to gain them back as the 905 tends to flow with the 416 and they are downright hated in rural Ontario.

Interestingly, if the PC's smell so much blood in the city, could they perhaps feel they can afford to risk being outflanked on the right in rural Ontario? The carbon tax plan is very popular in Toronto, even if it isn't popular in the countryside. It's the same policy question the BC Liberals face right now in that province...

That said, that poll seems like a near-outlier, perhaps the 19th time out of 20 representing the extreme of reasonable results.

As for no byelection in Toronto Centre, that is interesting - you'd think the Liberals would want new blood since that is one of the top 5 safest seats in the province for them?

[vid]

Originally Posted by Phil McAvity

In other words become the Liberal party and stand for nothing but getting re-elected?

If the Liberals stand for nothing, why do people have so many disagreements with their policies?

Honestly I'm not sure if your comments are skilfully crafted logical fallacies or mindless gibbering from a triggered conservative.

Originally Posted by Loco101

I've written on here a lot about how weak of a leader Brown is and he can't take a position on anything. He's not a very good speaker and is not interesting. He came to my city and had a private meeting by invitation only about hydro issues at a downtown cafe. What type of opposition leader does that?

He did that here, at a grocery store in a village of 200 people. There was no media announcement that it would happen until the day of the event. It's like he is hiding from dissent.

The crazy thing is, the local candidate who hosted him (a public employee from Waterloo, since no one local was willing to run for the PCs this time) has come rather close to agreeing with me, a socialist .

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Interestingly, if the PC's smell so much blood in the city, could they perhaps feel they can afford to risk being outflanked on the right in rural Ontario? The carbon tax plan is very popular in Toronto, even if it isn't popular in the countryside. It's the same policy question the BC Liberals face right now in that province...

That's the path to victory. This is the Province of Toronto's Suburbs now, and you have to win Toronto's Suburbs to win Ontario. The PCs need to abandon social conservatism and hyperbole and lead with logic and respect.

Can they do it?? Less than a year to go and no one fucking knows!!

[Loco101]

The area to really watch is Peel Region. It always seems to go with the winner. And the region can make sudden turns during an election campaign. It may seem to be going totally PC right now but can quickly change. It's somewhere where a perceived attack on one minority is seen as an attack on all minorities.

Examples of previous PC leaders: Mike Harris did well there because he only focused on economic issues. Hudak failed there when he spoke against "foreign" workers when describing recent immigrant workers.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

This poll would be catastrophic for Wynne. Although I have a hard time believing this.

http://www.qpbriefing.com/2017/07/31...poll-suggests/

If the Liberals are trailing by 18 points in Toronto, and even losing downtown, they would surely lose official party status and perhaps be reduced to Kim Campbell territory. If they lose a lot of seats in the 416, there is nowhere that they can expect to gain them back as the 905 tends to flow with the 416 and they are downright hated in rural Ontario.

Interestingly, if the PC's smell so much blood in the city, could they perhaps feel they can afford to risk being outflanked on the right in rural Ontario? The carbon tax plan is very popular in Toronto, even if it isn't popular in the countryside. It's the same policy question the BC Liberals face right now in that province...

That said, that poll seems like a near-outlier, perhaps the 19th time out of 20 representing the extreme of reasonable results.

As for no byelection in Toronto Centre, that is interesting - you'd think the Liberals would want new blood since that is one of the top 5 safest seats in the province for them?

That poll doesn't seem right. There is no way the PCs have that much support in Toronto. Many in the city would vote NDP before even considering the PCs.

From what I've seen, many Ontarians would still consider voting Liberal. Many are indeed tired of having the same party in power since 2003. The problem is that the alternatives are not all that attractive. Nobody knows what the PCs are offering and the NDP isn't seen as being able to govern. Wynne is an extremely strong campaigner. Brown may just try to play it safe the whole time. But he risks looking weak by doing that. Very hard to predict the 2018 election.