Don B...paging Don B...

[HX_Guy]

Census: AZ population up 1.5%
Phoenix Business Journal

Arizona’s population grew by 96,401 residents in the 12 months from July 1, 2008, to July 1, 2009, the seventh largest gain in the nation, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Texas, with an increase of 478,000 residents was No. 1 and California with an increase of 381,000 people was No. 2, while North Carolina came in third with a gain of 133,750.

In terms of percentages, Arizona’s growth translates to 1.5 percent for an eighth place ranking. Wyoming led the nation with 2.12 percent growth to 544,270; Utah was up 2.10 percent to 2.8 million; and Texas was up 1.97 percent to 24.8 million residents.

Arizona’s population stood at 6,595,778 in July up from 6,499,377 in 2008, according to the report. That moves the state up one notch to No. 14 in terms of overall resident count. The nation’s population is now estimated at 307,006,550, up from 304,374,846 last year.

California still has more people than any other state (37 million), followed by Texas (24.8 million), New York (19.5 million), Florida (18.5 million) and Illinois (12.9 million).

Three states lost people over the last year: Michigan (down 0.33 percent), Maine (down 0.11 percent) and Rhode Island (down 0.03 percent).

The Census Bureau new state population estimates are the last to be released before the agency conducts its official census of the nation next year as mandated by the Constitution.

[Leo the Dog]

Most of AZ growth could be attributed to natural births over deaths. Nevada, is still growing too, and their local economy is worse than AZ's.

We do have many young people/families reproducing in this state.

[HX_Guy]

Yes...but some people were predicting that we would have negative growth. Maybe they were talking about figures not involving natural births?

[CraftTeutonic]

so much for becoming the next detroit

[Don B.]

The U.S. Census can't estimate their way out of a paper bag. Before the 2000 census counts came in, they had estimated Phoenix's population in that year to be about 1.15 to 1.2 million; the actual count was much higher, at 1.321 million.

As mentioned by other forumers, these numbers, if accurate, represent the advantage of a higher birth rate than older cities elsewhere. They are purely the result of natural increase as more people are currently leaving Arizona than moving in.

--don

[HX_Guy]

Originally Posted by Don B.

They are purely the result of natural increase as more people are currently leaving Arizona than moving in.

Maybe...maybe not, but even growth from births helps out the economy. It may not help real estate, but babys need food, clothes, etc etc.

[combusean]

They're still estimates. Estimates are never worth a damn here.

Wait till the 2010 numbers and we'll know for certain.

[HX_Guy]

Here is a study from the Univ. of New Hampshire showing immigration trends for 3 years, including 2009, which still shows Arizona to be in the positive.

[Leo the Dog]

It'll be interesting to the 2010 census data when it comes out next December.

Source: http://www.azcentral.com/business/ar...ation1224.html

Doubts over new Census claims of AZ growth
14 comments by Catherine Reagor - Dec. 24, 2009 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic
New Census Bureau estimates show that Arizona's population growth continued to slow at the end of the decade yet still was among the fastest in the nation.

The federal data, released Wednesday, are likely to enflame the debate over whether Arizona is getting population estimates from the Census Bureau that reflect reality.

The data run counter to local research that shows metropolitan Phoenix, which accounts for at least 70 percent of the state's population, has not grown at all since 2007, when the housing downturn began.

Economists as well as business and government leaders say faulty population estimates are hurting the state's ability to make sound plans for future highways, budgets, energy needs, and commercial and housing development.

The 2009 Census estimates are the last annual ones before the 2010 decennial census, when residents will be counted through home visits and mail-in surveys.

The new estimates found that from July 2008 to July 2009, Arizona's population rose by 1.5 percent, or by 96,401 individuals. That would put total population at nearly 6.6 million.

Slowing growth

The growth was slower than the 2-plus percent to 3-plus percent increases estimated in each year from 2001 to 2008. But Arizona still ranked seventh among states in growth since 2008, second since 2000.

Arizona's accurate population may not be known until late next year, when 2010 census results are released. Local experts say those could confirm that federal and state estimates have been flawed.

"There's no evidence that Phoenix or Arizona grew at the rate the Census is citing," said Greg Vogel, a real-estate executive and president of Urban Land Institute of Arizona. "We are encouraged that it appears we didn't lose a lot of residents, but it's disturbing that the Census figure continues to overestimate our population."

Arizona's own population estimates have long been heavily weighted toward tracking home sales and building, a factor also considered by the Census Bureau. But during the housing boom, the numbers became inflated along with the housing market.

During the past two years, more than 30 of Arizona's top economists and business and government leaders have been working together to revise the state's method for tracking population.

Their report, released last month by the Urban Land Institute, found that metro Phoenix's population has not increased in three years and that the area could have lost a few thousand residents.

Leaders must make long-term plans about funding and carrying out government and private projects based on births, deaths and on how many people are moving here.

The official census will also be used for other purposes: to apportion congressional seats, redraw congressional districts and allocate billions of dollars in federal funds for transportation, Medicaid and affordable housing to state and local governments.

"We are focused now on ensuring we get a complete and accurate count in 2010," Robert Groves, director of the Census Bureau, said in a news release. "The census counts will not only determine how many U.S. House seats each state will have but will also be used as the benchmark for future population estimates."

From 2000 to 2009, Arizona was second in overall population growth after Nevada, according to the new census estimates. During the 1990s, Arizona led the nation for growth with a 40 percent increase in population. As a result, the state gained two congressional seats.

The Census Bureau's latest estimates are based on its longtime method of tracking births, deaths, employment, total number of housing units, new U.S. residents and movement between the states.

When Arizona began growing rapidly and outpacing census estimates in the 1950s, state economists began tracking the housing market more closely to get a better count of new residents. The system worked until the housing boom of 2004 to 2006, when too many new homes went up that didn't have residents living in them.

Impact on revenue

In order to generate more accurate Arizona population estimates and projections, the recent Urban Land Institute report recommends focusing on other key indicators: undocumented immigrants, school enrollment, utility customers, household size and the number of empty homes and apartments.

In metro Phoenix, the difference between a 1 percent population growth and a 1 percent drop could mean a swing of $1.5 billion in projected sales-tax revenue and billions more in business revenue.

There are no estimates yet on what that a population drop will mean for Arizona's share of federal funding.