'Era of less' is arriving, real estate report says (Philly Inquirer)

[Evergrey]

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/busin...port_says.html

Posted on Sat, Nov. 13, 2010


'Era of less' is arriving, real estate report says

By Alan J. Heavens

Inquirer Real Estate Writer

The Urban Land Institute's national Emerging Trends in Real Estate report, presented to an overflow crowd of businesspeople Friday at the Union League, offered no surprises about the U.S. or Philadelphia economies.

For the country, 2011 is the gateway to the "era of less, the Twilight Zone of real estate," in the words of the report's presenter, institute senior fellow Stephen R. Blank, who compared it with the time of a lot more - more deals, more leverage, more financing - "until the mores caught up with us and the capital markets couldn't save us."

Blank said 2011 would bring a continuation of slackened demand for real estate, with new and yet unwritten government financial regulations causing considerable concern.

In addition, the sputtering job market will continue to dog the recovery, and "near stagnant U.S. wages and the absence of free-flowing credit" will unsettle consumers seeking to maintain the nation's upscale way of life, he said.

The institute's trends report, based on a survey of 875 of the nation's movers and shakers, gave Philadelphia a single paragraph, which closed with the observation that "institutional investors never muster much enthusiasm" for the city.

While those interviewed for the report "lament that the city suffers from its proximity to New York," others hope for gains from its positioning as the "cheaper alternative," according to the study.

If there were just high-speed rail traveling 150 m.p.h. to Manhattan, the city might get a major boost, the survey stated.

"It's a perception study," Blank said, "and has little to do with intrinsic value. Philadelphia is that gem between New York and Washington that no one has figured out, and the outside market doesn't understand it."

Philadelphia is "misperceived and misunderstood," said Blank, who presents highlights of the report each year to the Philadelphia region's Urban Land Institute membership. The institute is a Washington-based, nonprofit research and education organization supported by its members.

The report points to Pittsburgh as an example for other cities.

...

[CentralGrad258]

I'm a huge fan of HSR, but would a 150 mph train to Manhattan really make that big of a difference over what Acela provides now? I mean yeah, it couldn't hurt, but I don't think it's what will drive Philly over the top. Otherwise pretty solid article, nothing most of us didn't already know. I love how all these articles mention Philly should make changes to its tax structure, but never come out and say what that change should be. Perhaps it's easier to make vague declaration than to actually get down to the nitty, gritty work of governing.

[babybackribs2314]

Originally Posted by CentralGrad258

I'm a huge fan of HSR, but would a 150 mph train to Manhattan really make that big of a difference over what Acela provides now? I mean yeah, it couldn't hurt, but I don't think it's what will drive Philly over the top. Otherwise pretty solid article, nothing most of us didn't already know. I love how all these articles mention Philly should make changes to its tax structure, but never come out and say what that change should be. Perhaps it's easier to make vague declaration than to actually get down to the nitty, gritty work of governing.

I think it would make a major difference. A commute to Philadelphia would be 20-25 minutes; it would become a very viable alternative for those who would prefer a 2-3k sq/ft townhouse over a 500 sq/ft apartment.

By the same token, Baltimore and DC need a HSR link (and as they're even closer, the commute would be about 15 minutes). Cost of living in Baltimore/Philly is so much less than in DC/NY respectively, HSR between each pair (and hopefully, between Baltimore-PHL as well) would be very beneficial.

[MolsonExport]

^20-25 minutes? commutes within Manhattan are usually longer than this. You mean, only for the HSR leg. not walking/subway/bus transfers. So unless you live on top of the HSR stations....

[CentralGrad258]

Originally Posted by babybackribs2314

I think it would make a major difference. A commute to Philadelphia would be 20-25 minutes; it would become a very viable alternative for those who would prefer a 2-3k sq/ft townhouse over a 500 sq/ft apartment.

By the same token, Baltimore and DC need a HSR link (and as they're even closer, the commute would be about 15 minutes). Cost of living in Baltimore/Philly is so much less than in DC/NY respectively, HSR between each pair (and hopefully, between Baltimore-PHL as well) would be very beneficial.

Quite frankly, I have no interest in Philadelphia becoming Manhattan's bedroom community. I'm sure some people would take advantage of the cheaper cost of living, but this is the fifth biggest metro in the nation, with its own job base to grow. I think HSR helps by making the Philadelphia office market an option for companies that want to do conduct business in New York or DC (ok lobbying in DC, that's the sad reality). The current Acela trip to New York is 70 minutes...not sure how realistic 20-25 minutes is, but I think getting it down under an hour would be a nice goal.

Baltimore and DC is a very different situation. Baltimore is just a much smaller metro area and much more integrated into DC's sphere of influence. There's just no way around that.

[babybackribs2314]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

^20-25 minutes? commutes within Manhattan are usually longer than this. You mean, only for the HSR leg. not walking/subway/bus transfers. So unless you live on top of the HSR stations....

I meant for the HSR leg, yes. I'd assume those most likely to commute to Manhattan would live/work close to each station, which still gives a very large number for how dense both cities are. A total commute of 30-45 minutes still isn't bad.