Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Build Enough Homes Where People Actually Need Them

[Xelebes]

This thread is a continuation of the previous thread. Please proceed.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Xelebes

This thread is a continuation of the previous thread. Please proceed.

Shouldn't this be titled: Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Get a Rational Immigration Policy That Doesn't Fuel a Housing Bubble ?

[MolsonExport]

It used to be primarily a bubble (nearly purely the product of speculation and grannies getting in on the action, a la Bre-X). Now it is primarily supply and demand.

[MonctonRad]

Archived previous thread here:

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=192230

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Shouldn't this be titled: Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Get a Rational Immigration Policy That Doesn't Fuel a Housing Bubble ?

That threat started with the prediction that the "housing bubble" we are in is about to burst. Several years later it has not popped. I think it is safe to now conclude we don't have a bubble. We do have a problem that our supply does not keep up with our demand.

We will still have to see what happens this year. Canada has pulled a number of our diplomats out of India. That has the potential to negatively impact our ability to process student visa applications.

The "Quest to build housing where people need them" is a very appropriate tittle. That is laser focused on the problem.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by casper

That threat started with the prediction that the "housing bubble" we are in is about to burst. Several years later it has not popped. I think it is safe to now conclude we don't have a bubble. We do have a problem that our supply does not keep up with our demand.

We will still have to see what happens this year. Canada has pulled a number of our diplomats out of India. That has the potential to negatively impact our ability to process student visa applications.

The "Quest to build housing where people need them" is a very appropriate tittle. That is laser focused on the problem.

And all along that timeline the Gederal government could have throttled back immigration and acted to spur housing.

[WhipperSnapper]

Toronto/Canada is in a bubble that both have typically ranked first or second in the world in the past decade. If you're interested, we've been swapping places with Germany. Price increases are not sustainable without foreign influences for which policies have been proactive in maintaining foreign interest.

It's not evidence that this is sustained growth as predictions on its cyclical end haven't transpires during the last ten years. It's a prediction afterall and as I said policies at all levels have supported its continuation.

It's one of or even the largest driving force of Toronto's economy and the wealth of the economy is the number one determination in elections. In other words, it would have been (past tense ) political suicide to introduce real legislation that would deflate the bubble.

Is there a major market that doesn't need more homes they way things are run now?

[lio45]

The thread title is really inappropriate (others have beaten me to this point.) Ten years ago, it was the correct title, but real estate discussion in Canada nowadays should take place in “The Canadian Ponzi Scheme Discussion Thread”.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by casper

The "Quest to build housing where people need them" is a very appropriate tittle. That is laser focused on the problem.

Hard disagree. Reality is the opposite: “The quest to limit immigration so the ~250,000 new units that we can realistically build per year isn’t laughably insufficient”, also known as “The quest to vote the Federal Liberals and their pet Human QE Scheme out of office already”.

(A quest which should end in 2025, the way things are going.)

[Innsertnamehere]

Is there a reason for all these new threads specifically now? I know there used to be a 10,000 post limit rule on threads - is it just catching up to that rule?

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Is there a reason for all these new threads specifically now? I know there used to be a 10,000 post limit rule on threads - is it just catching up to that rule?

We're currently having database issues. The moderators are experimenting to see if it reduces the number of database errors while the administrators are seeing what they can do.

[ssiguy]

Canada will never be able to build enough housing while we continue to import a million people a year, it just can't happen.

Housing bubble: How Trudeau screwed the housing market and couldn't possibly care less about the harm it is causing but due to his falling ratings has decided to throw billion away by buying a rubber plug to stop the dam leak.

[casper]

Looks like we have term. "Decommodification of housing"

Banning Airbnb and similar services is the first step of "Decommodification".

At least that is what the BC Green party is calling it. The NDP are going along with it. The BC Party put up some resistance but back down. The only party now against getting rid of short term rentals as the BC Conservative party.

https://www.timescolonist.com/local-...upport-7716972

The province implementing targets for new construction in some municipalities look to be causing councils to consider how they need to stand-up to their voters.

Saanich has a 104 unit market complex that is coming before council. They being more open minded due to the provincial mandates that perhaps they would have been in the past. Given there is a 9 story residential building going up across the street, my guess is this one will be approved.

https://www.timescolonist.com/local-...n-lake-7718862

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Xelebes

We're currently having database issues. The moderators are experimenting to see if it reduces the number of database errors while the administrators are seeing what they can do.

Thanks, it seems after about two days of no issues, there was another one earlier today.

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Canada will never be able to build enough housing while we continue to import a million people a year, it just can't happen.

Housing bubble: How Trudeau screwed the housing market and couldn't possibly care less about the harm it is causing but due to his falling ratings has decided to throw billion away by buying a rubber plug to stop the dam leak.

Ironically one cause of the problem can be seen as sole reliance upon laissez-faire economics to provide housing; usually this is a principle more favoured by conservative governments. Capitalism ultimately produces both winners and losers as it's final product. More socialist governments would theoretically focus on providing social housing or similar hybrid arrangements, and more regulatory processes to keep things affordable. IMO it's hard to imagine that any political party can just swoop in and fix things that the other one can't, especially without causing other problems in their wake.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Canada will never be able to build enough housing while we continue to import a million people a year, it just can't happen.

Yes, because that is not what is happening. You post a lot of false information.

. In 2024, Canada will aim to welcome an additional 485,000 immigrants. In 2025, the target is another 500,000 new permanent residents.

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-im...els-plans.html

A lot of these immigrants will get jobs in the construction industry by the way.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by logan5

Yes, because that is not what is happening. You post a lot of false information.


https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-im...els-plans.html

This ignores all the non-permanent residents taken in. The hundreds of thousands of foreign students who come here still need a place to live.

Originally Posted by logan5

A lot of these immigrants will get jobs in the construction industry by the way.

Is there evidence of this? I can't find it right now, but abiding to my reading, Canada took in around 1k construction workers last year. An immigration system that preferences graduate degrees on points will struggle taking in construction workers. Maybe the government is hoping some of these Indian kids coming over will choose construction instead of Uber Eats delivery?

[suburbanite]

The construction industry historically has pretty bad absorption in relation to immigration. Skilled trades especially given the archaic accreditation system.

[giallo]

Just saw a two bed/two bath apartment in New Westminster trying to get $3300 a month for rent.

Pure lunacy.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by logan5

Yes, because that is not what is happening. You post a lot of false information.


https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-im...els-plans.html

A lot of these immigrants will get jobs in the construction industry by the way.

He’s correct. Our population grew by over 1 million last year with international migration being responsible for nearly all of that growth. As pointed out, our predominant migration group is no longer the landed immigrant. As per statcan we had a net increase in 1.05 million migrants to the country last year.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...30322f-eng.htm

The number is going to be substantially higher in 2023.

https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/stat...61431828889606

[harls]

Originally Posted by giallo

Just saw a two bed/two bath apartment in New Westminster trying to get $3300 a month for rent.

Pure lunacy.

Sounds like a steal for the lower mainland.

If it is on Facebook, it will be accompanied by multiple laughing emojis and comments about how landlords are crooks.