Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Build Enough Homes Where People Actually Need Them

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Pre-sale, likely less than $600k in Burnaby / Coquitlam near the train line. numbers I got about 2 weeks ago. Sub $1,300 / psf.

I mean you might get $2,500 / psf in downtown Vancouver, but that's very specific for a type of buyer and area. Even in Kitsilano that would barely top $1,700 back in 2019 - not too different in today's market.

I don't follow your math. Sub $1300 PSF for 1800 a sq ft 3 bedroom apartment in a high rise with a kitchen is sitll well over $2 million.

Your sub $600k 2200 SQ FT townhouse is made from wood and a totally different market.

[Xelebes]

I may be wrong but I think the numbers he is running is for things like that 400 sf apartment.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I don't follow your math. Sub $1300 PSF for 1800 a sq ft 3 bedroom apartment in a high rise with a kitchen is sitll well over $2 million.

Your sub $600k 2200 SQ FT townhouse is made from wood and a totally different market.

I was replying to the comment that 400sf apartments in Vancouver are over $1m (I assume they meant Metro Vancouver).

I don't think I've seen a new 1,800sf 3-bedroom apartment in Metro Vancouver recently. A Client of mine is setting aside a penthouse in a 20-storey building for his mom and it's only 1,000sf. 900sf is maybe more typical?

EDIT: Just looking at my drawings now, we have one prime 2-bed at about 1,300sf and we only went that big because it was a money maker at $2.5m. The rest are under 1,000sf


I wish I saw 2,200 sf townhomes go for under $600k here and I'd buy one (even at 1,500sf, which is way more than my family would need) in a heartbeat. I think new duplexes in Edmonton in Hazeldean go for $650-800k.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I don't think you understand how it works.

1) Commodity prices are global. So no, there's not many ways to reduce the price of steel, timber, etc

Agreed. These things can be controlled, however that is not what western countries do.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

2) The industry needs skilled labour to lower wage pressure. The government brought in lots of Uber drivers instead. That doesn't reduce construction sector wage pressure. But it does increase overall housing demand.

The government thought it was bringing in lots of students (with parents with fat wallets). It was wrong.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

3) The government basically encouraged real estate speculation for years. The industry oriented around it. Units and buildings were constructed to sell to investors. Business models developed around selling to investors. Now that this is all falling apart with higher rates, developers are struggling. The government owns this, as much as the development sector.

That goes back decades. This government is the first that has taken any action to stop the speculation. The stress test for mortgages. The developer crisis is caused in part by actions that should be positives to constrain the growth in housing costs.

[SpongeG]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

I was replying to the comment that 400sf apartments in Vancouver are over $1m (I assume they meant Metro Vancouver).

I don't think I've seen a new 1,800sf 3-bedroom apartment in Metro Vancouver recently. A Client of mine is setting aside a penthouse in a 20-storey building for his mom and it's only 1,000sf. 900sf is maybe more typical?

EDIT: Just looking at my drawings now, we have one prime 2-bed at about 1,300sf and we only went that big because it was a money maker at $2.5m. The rest are under 1,000sf


I wish I saw 2,200 sf townhomes go for under $600k here and I'd buy one (even at 1,500sf, which is way more than my family would need) in a heartbeat. I think new duplexes in Edmonton in Hazeldean go for $650-800k.

this is a 3 bdrm in Burquitlam, 45th floor penthouse. It's the most expensive current listing for Coquitlam.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...reet-coquitlam
3 bdrms, 2 bathrooms 1731 Square Feet
$2,419,900

Another
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...enue-coquitlam
a sub-penthouse in the Austin Heights area of Coquitlam
2 bdrm, 2 bath 1090 Sq Feet
$1,499,000

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

this is a 3 bdrm in Burquitlam, 45th floor penthouse. It's the most expensive current listing for Coquitlam.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...reet-coquitlam
3 bdrms, 2 bathrooms 1731 Square Feet
$2,419,900

Why would anyone buy that when you could buy a nice house for that kind of coin? Condos should be depreciating assets, given the amount of money they require in maintenance as they age.

[P'tit Renard]

It'll be interesting to see how this ruling will rattle long-term renters in BC, as now it'll be easier for landlords to pass on their costs and ignore rent controls:

Concerns for Canadian renters after two B.C. landlords allowed to hike rent by 23.5 per cent
https://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/ne...ws%20reported.

B.C. landlord can increase rent by 23.5% after variable mortgage rate led to financial losses: RTB
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2024/0...cent-increase/

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

It'll be interesting to see how this ruling will rattle long-term renters in BC, as now it'll be easier for landlords to pass on their costs and ignore rent controls:

Concerns for Canadian renters after two B.C. landlords allowed to hike rent by 23.5 per cent
https://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/ne...ws%20reported.

B.C. landlord can increase rent by 23.5% after variable mortgage rate led to financial losses: RTB
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2024/0...cent-increase/

Yet more reason for renters to stay away from Mom & Pop landlords whose one crappy investment condo is their "get rich" plan.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

It'll be interesting to see how this ruling will rattle long-term renters in BC, as now it'll be easier for landlords to pass on their costs and ignore rent controls:

Concerns for Canadian renters after two B.C. landlords allowed to hike rent by 23.5 per cent
https://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/ne...ws%20reported.

B.C. landlord can increase rent by 23.5% after variable mortgage rate led to financial losses: RTB
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2024/0...cent-increase/

I like how "they didn't see rates going up" likely everyone else did from 2021 - 2023.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

I like how "they didn't see rates going up" likely everyone else did from 2021 - 2023.

It's easy to say that in retrospect. Half of everyone was saying that, but don't forget that the other half was saying that all inflation was transient. Remember that?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by chowhou

It's easy to say that in retrospect. Half of everyone was saying that, but don't forget that the other half was saying that all inflation was transient. Remember that?

I will never understand how people saw some of the lowest rates ever and didn't lock in. Also don't understand how dumb some finance professionals were. I was renewing in December 2020. 5 yr fixed was 1.61%. Broker advises variable because 25 bps lower. I was laughing until I realized she was serious. Then I told her to just process the fixed because 25 bps was not worth the risk. These people had all been conditioned to sell the cheapest mortgages possible regardless of risk.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I will never understand how people saw some of the lowest rates ever and didn't lock in. Also don't understand how dumb some finance professionals were. I was renewing in December 2020. 5 yr fixed was 1.61%. Broker advises variable because 25 bps lower. I was laughing until I realized she was serious. Then I told her to just process the fixed because 25 bps was not worth the risk. These people had all been conditioned to sell the cheapest mortgages possible regardless of risk.

Same thing happened to us when we bought our house in 2022. Wasn't quite that low but we could lock in for 5 years at 2.4% or do variable at a bit lower. Was a bit baffled that they were still recommending variable when the writing was on the wall at that point.