Federal Government & Politics II

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

None of that is happening in any time period that is relevant to solving current budget problems. You're talking about something that could happen in the 2040s or beyond. The budget has to be balanced long before that.



Politicians in the 80s had rail lines to rip up and post offices to close. Today's governments have far fewer of those. So they will have to make difficult choices.

The better choice is to have economic growth. Cutting for the sake of just cutting doesn't normally make things better. The difficult choices will be about how much more to spend and not about cutting. Voters aren't in the mood for cuts to OAS/GIS, CCB and many other things. These things will likely be election issues that will awaken voters. There are always some things that can be cut but doing it immediately probably won't happen. It would be over a number of years.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Why are we giving one small segment of the Canadian population veto rights over prosperity for all of us?

Well we have treaties in place for many areas and legal decisions that mean that Indigenous consultations and involvement must take place for anywhere in Canada. Treaties are legal documents and many haven't been properly followed since they were signed so that alone has hurt many.

Our Indigenous peoples are not simply "one small segment." They do have rights and special status for resources. A big myth out there is that most First Nations don't want resource development at all.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

And fall right into the playbook of your party, the Bloc, which will then state "see? The feds are cutting social programs, you must vote chapeau-de-douche!!"

I’d be surprised if PP can tie JT in terms of helping the PQ and Bloc these past few years. The shittier the Feds make Canada, the more appealing sovereignty will be, and vice versa.

PQ is polling at majority territory levels right now… that party was almost dead before JT’s pet Scheme.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Loco101

The better choice is to have economic growth. Cutting for the sake of just cutting doesn't normally make things better.

This was the Liberal 2015 argument. Unfortunately, they abused the hell of it and redefined all kinds of consumption as investment to justify running massive deficits.

Instead of infrastructure and housing and industrial investments with real economic payback, we got more social spending with some vaguely defined long term benefits.

Originally Posted by Loco101

The difficult choices will be about how much more to spend and not about cutting. Voters aren't in the mood for cuts to OAS/GIS, CCB and many other things. These things will likely be election issues that will awaken voters. There are always some things that can be cut but doing it immediately probably won't happen. It would be over a number of years.

Voters may not be in the mood for cuts. But that is what they will get. And given the mandate the CPC is about to get they will go for generational change that is irreversible. It's what I would do in their shoes. So I expect substantial privatization of healthcare. Complete dismantling of recent Liberal social programs like childcare and dental care, except for maybe seniors. They'll do what the British conservatives did and cover it all up with rhetoric.

Harper's tactic seems to have worked. He cut taxes. Even Trudeau wasn't willing to reverse those tax cuts and simply ran deficits instead. This tells conservatives they are right. The more taxes they cut the harder it will be for any future Liberal government to reverse it. They'll only ever put in programs that run on deficits, which can be cut later.

The 2029 election is going to be the really testy one. We're only talking about federal spending here. Wait till they try undoing all kinds of rights the courts have affirmed for Aboriginals or try ramming a pipeline through Quebec.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This was the Liberal 2015 argument. Unfortunately, they abused the hell of it and redefined all kinds of consumption as investment to justify running massive deficits.

Instead of infrastructure and housing and industrial investments with real economic payback, we got more social spending with some vaguely defined long term benefits.



Voters may not be in the mood for cuts. But that is what they will get. And given the mandate the CPC is about to get they will go for generational change that is irreversible. It's what I would do in their shoes. So I expect substantial privatization of healthcare. Complete dismantling of recent Liberal social programs like childcare and dental care, except for maybe seniors. They'll do what the British conservatives did and cover it all up with rhetoric.

Harper's tactic seems to have worked. He cut taxes. Even Trudeau wasn't willing to reverse those tax cuts and simply ran deficits instead. This tells conservatives they are right. The more taxes they cut the harder it will be for any future Liberal government to reverse it. They'll only ever put in programs that run on deficits, which can be cut later.

The 2029 election is going to be the really testy one. We're only talking about federal spending here. Wait till they try undoing all kinds of rights the courts have affirmed for Aboriginals or try ramming a pipeline through Quebec.

Do you really think that the CPC will run on the things you mentioned? They won't win if they do. PP will be like Tim Hudak in Ontario who tried convincing us that cuts and reducing social spending would somehow make things better. Do you really think that our federal deficits are massive? Look at the rest of the G7!

They won't be able to take away Indigenous rights unless they break laws and start a war. And a pipeline through Quebec would only happen if Quebecers can be convinced that it's worth their while. PP preaches that he is for Indigenous and provincial rights.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Do you really think that the CPC will run on the things you mentioned? They won't win if they do. PP will be like Tim Hudak in Ontario who tried convincing us that cuts and reducing social spending would somehow make things better. Do you really think that our federal deficits are massive? Look at the rest of the G7!

They won't be able to take away Indigenous rights unless they break laws and start a war. And a pipeline through Quebec would only happen if Quebecers can be convinced that it's worth their while. PP preaches that he is for Indigenous and provincial rights.

Probably not, although in the current atmosphere a pledge of smaller, "less wasteful" government would resonate with many.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Do you really think that the CPC will run on the things you mentioned? They won't win if they do. PP will be like Tim Hudak in Ontario who tried convincing us that cuts and reducing social spending would somehow make things better. Do you really think that our federal deficits are massive? Look at the rest of the G7!

They won't be able to take away Indigenous rights unless they break laws and start a war. And a pipeline through Quebec would only happen if Quebecers can be convinced that it's worth their while. PP preaches that he is for Indigenous and provincial rights.

They will absolutely learn the Hudak lesson of over-confidence and too much speficity. It will make the cuts when they come more controversial but I don't think Harris cuts weren't opposed any less because they were outlined in the platform.

There is also some logic in seeing what the 2026 election looks like before deciding specifics.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Do you really think that the CPC will run on the things you mentioned? They won't win if they do.

Nobody has to bother with a platform these days except for token effort. Doug Ford proved that. And they don't have to bother doing things in their platform once they get elected. Justin Trudeau proved that. It's all vibes these days.

Originally Posted by Loco101

They won't be able to take away Indigenous rights unless they break laws and start a war. And a pipeline through Quebec would only happen if Quebecers can be convinced that it's worth their while. PP preaches that he is for Indigenous and provincial rights.

I expect insane court battles and efforts to outright ignore the law. It's working out right now for Saskatchewan who simply decided to ignored the law on remitting carbon taxes to Ottawa and dared Ottawa to prosecute their execs and ministers. If that can work provincially, it can work federally.

Maybe power will temper them. But I doubt it. I expect this lot is going for big and irreversible changes. And they will keep going till they get tossed. I think they get at least two terms in office. And Canada 2033 will be quite different.