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  #9281  
Old Posted Today, 1:51 AM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Don’t worry, he hears people’s concerns. Everything will be fine.

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Jagmeet Singh's reaction to this was pretty funny: "People are really angry at the Liberals". Yet apparently completely unaware that his own party's support in the riding dropped by nearly 6% from 2021 - proportionally, worse than the Liberal's (ie. they lost ~1/3 of their vote share, vs. the Libs only having lost 1/5 of theirs). I guess people aren't thrilled with the NDP either.
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  #9282  
Old Posted Today, 3:10 AM
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Originally Posted by theman23 View Post
I think they’ve all bought the kool aid at this point and it’ll take a complete house cleaning for them to make any meaningful changes.
I agree and this is why I think the only person that could give PP a run for his money is Carney.

Love him or hate him, he is a known commodity and he could legitimately claim he has no connection to the Trudeau gov't. He would represent the clear break from Trudeau & Co. and hence wouldn't come with all the baggage any of the current potential leaders would. He would run on being a new leader in a reinvigorated party and this is exactly what the Liberals need. He is socially progressive and very much a climate change activist so he would appeal to the more left of centre Liberal vote.

Again, however, I don't think he will run. I think he knows that, no matter who is in charge, it's simply too late to rescue the Liberal brand and will take a pass until the following election when PP's gov't policies maybe ill received and he too has his far amount of scandals to campaign against.
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  #9283  
Old Posted Today, 3:24 AM
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Acouple of good ones by de Adder.
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  #9284  
Old Posted Today, 3:25 AM
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I don’t think Carney is plausible. Even if he wanted the job and even if the PM resigns in July we are talking a fall leadership convention. Even a rushed by election doesn’t get him in Parliament until after Christmas (assuming they can find a safe Liberal seat).

The most sensible thing for Carney to do would be to disavow most of the Trudeau agenda of the last 5 years, which would risk NDP support, which means he could have to fight an election without any experience and without ever having set foot in Parliament.
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  #9285  
Old Posted Today, 3:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Build.It View Post
I guess those reasons are somewhat understandable, but it also just seems kinda phoney. Both JT and PP are WASP multigen Canadians who probably know very little about that region of the world and all the events that led up to this current war. What happens over there is none of their business, and frankly not our problem as a nation either.

I will add that I'm not following the war at all, but from the bits and pieces I've picked up, both sides' actions are deplorable and neither deserve support. The only people who deserve support are the innocent bystanders who have to keep food on the table without getting killed in the process.
Exactly. This is where the Liberal policy is far more rational. Basically we don't want to see civilians killed or displaced either by terrorists or the military.
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  #9286  
Old Posted Today, 4:23 AM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
Jagmeet Singh's reaction to this was pretty funny: "People are really angry at the Liberals". Yet apparently completely unaware that his own party's support in the riding dropped by nearly 6% from 2021 - proportionally, worse than the Liberal's (ie. they lost ~1/3 of their vote share, vs. the Libs only having lost 1/5 of theirs). I guess people aren't thrilled with the NDP either.
Singh’s statement makes sense if the full quote is “People are really angry at the Liberals, and really really angry at the NDP”
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  #9287  
Old Posted Today, 4:28 AM
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
I agree and this is why I think the only person that could give PP a run for his money is Carney.

Love him or hate him, he is a known commodity and he could legitimately claim he has no connection to the Trudeau gov't. He would represent the clear break from Trudeau & Co. and hence wouldn't come with all the baggage any of the current potential leaders would. He would run on being a new leader in a reinvigorated party and this is exactly what the Liberals need. He is socially progressive and very much a climate change activist so he would appeal to the more left of centre Liberal vote.

Again, however, I don't think he will run. I think he knows that, no matter who is in charge, it's simply too late to rescue the Liberal brand and will take a pass until the following election when PP's gov't policies maybe ill received and he too has his far amount of scandals to campaign against.
Maybe, but I don't see it. Its doubtful that Fraser, Freeland, Joly et al would fall on their swords with JT, but that would need to happen for the party to move on. The Liberal record is poor, but the leader still has to defend it in a campaign to be reelected. Carney won't be able to separate himself from JT for some time if he were to be leader, and will probably be 68 by the time the Liberals have a shot at winning the election. Carney came onto the political scene when the Liberals still were competitive and it seemed like JT would make a graceful exit. At this point, I doubt he's interested.
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  #9288  
Old Posted Today, 5:04 AM
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How to say "I don't want to lead the steaming turd that is now the LPC" without saying "I don't want to lead the steaming turd that is now the LPC"!
Quote:
Trudeau ‘does not need to quit’ after Liberals lose traditionally safe Toronto riding: Freeland

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will stay on as leader, his government signalled Tuesday as Liberals demanded the party make urgent changes in response to an unexpected by-election loss in a stronghold Toronto seat.
...
Earlier in downtown Toronto, Ms. Freeland, the Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, told reporters Mr. Trudeau is still the right person to lead the party.

He does not need to quit,” she said. “The Prime Minister is committed to leading us into the next election and he has our support.”
...
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  #9289  
Old Posted Today, 10:45 AM
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Curious why everyone wants Carney. What makes him so good? Isn't he also a believer in Keynesian economics ... aka deficit spending? Sounds like more of the same.
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  #9290  
Old Posted Today, 10:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Build.It View Post
Curious why everyone wants Carney. What makes him so good? Isn't he also a believer in Keynesian economics ... aka deficit spending? Sounds like more of the same.
Keynesian economists usually support deficits in times of recession and then paying down the debt in times of growth.
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  #9291  
Old Posted Today, 11:19 AM
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Angus Reid poll ... basically whomever is the captain will be taken out by the iceberg.
Quote:
While Trudeau’s personal unpopularity is viewed as a major drag on the party’s support, the data does not suggest a leadership change would close the 21-point gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

Canadians are more likely than not to say rumoured successors such as Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc and President of the Treasury Board Anita Anand would drive them away from the party.
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  #9292  
Old Posted Today, 12:54 PM
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Too much speculation about individuals, istm. This government is tired and people are now looking for change. It's normal. Baring a huge shift in policies by this government, which doesn't seem likely, it's hard to see how they can turn things around, even this far out from an election.
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  #9293  
Old Posted Today, 1:21 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Keynesian economists usually support deficits in times of recession and then paying down the debt in times of growth.
The tricky part is what to do in 2025. I think it is certain PP will have big cuts. Which are needed. I guess big tax cuts if we are in recession and small tax cuts if we aren't. Or he might be like Trump and just pump pump. There isn't a lot of history of Conservative governments being fiscally responsible though Harper was a pretty strong exception and PP is a student of his.
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  #9294  
Old Posted Today, 1:28 PM
acottawa acottawa is online now
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Originally Posted by YOWetal View Post
The tricky part is what to do in 2025. I think it is certain PP will have big cuts. Which are needed. I guess big tax cuts if we are in recession and small tax cuts if we aren't. Or he might be like Trump and just pump pump. There isn't a lot of history of Conservative governments being fiscally responsible though Harper was a pretty strong exception and PP is a student of his.
The only tax cut I would expect early on is the carbon tax, which is mostly revenue neutral. I would expect more tax cuts in 2028 or so.
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  #9295  
Old Posted Today, 1:37 PM
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Originally Posted by shreddog View Post
Angus Reid poll ... basically whomever is the captain will be taken out by the iceberg.
These polls are a bit hard to read as an actual leadership takeover changes things in ways people aren't able to respond to now. Intersting that soft Liberal voters are neutral to positive towards Freeland.
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  #9296  
Old Posted Today, 1:49 PM
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These polls are a bit hard to read as an actual leadership takeover changes things in ways people aren't able to respond to now. Intersting that soft Liberal voters are neutral to positive towards Freeland.
True that ... most polls are often too speculative, however I do think this puts some water on the idea that "if only there was a new leader the LPC would win again" mode of thinking.

As acottawa has stated a number of times, it's too late for a leadership change with only 12ish months to dropping the writ. Even if JT quit today, the LPC couldn't stand up a race in less than 3 months. If boy wonder Carney won, either someone would have to quit in a safe red riding (and that would be??) with a byelection called or Carney would have to campaign for PM from the outside. Neither of which is a good spot to be in this close to an election.

Nope, the LPC wagon is hitched to JT - and it sinks or swims with him alone. What that poll does indicate is that it's not JT that's the problem (only one) with the LPC as the government, it's all the other stuff. The stuff which they give no indication of changing or even thinking needs changing.
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  #9297  
Old Posted Today, 1:54 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
The only tax cut I would expect early on is the carbon tax, which is mostly revenue neutral. I would expect more tax cuts in 2028 or so.
That tracks politically. Government cuts excaerbating the 2025 recession and tax cuts further juicing the recovery in 2028 as we head into election.
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  #9298  
Old Posted Today, 4:35 PM
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Former MP considering bid to replace Trudeau as Liberal leader after party's byelecti

This has stalking horse vibes but while this may be a ship going down we often forget if Trudeau resigns this summer the new leader gets to be Prime Minister for a year. That's not nothing.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fra...deau-1.7246713

Only a day after Conservatives won a federal byelection in the longtime Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul's, ending a race that was largely viewed as a referendum on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's leadership at the head of the governing party, a new potential contender says he is considering a bid to replace him.

Former Liberal MP Frank Baylis confirmed to CBC News he has been approached for a leadership run.

"A number of people are asking me to think about this, and I'm taking their request seriously," Baylis said in an interview.

"It's been a long time, there's been a demand, there's been an interest in having a more centrist viewpoint, a more fiscally responsible approach, and with my background in business, many people have approached me and talked to me about this."

Baylis represented Pierrefonds-Dollard, another riding considered one of the safest in the country for the Liberals, on Montreal's West Island, from 2015 to 2019. He stepped down that year.

He is the executive chairperson of Baylis Medical Tech, a company he sold to a larger American firm, Boston Scientific, for $1.75 billion US in 2022.

He insisted he has made no firm decision, but has been watching the fallout from the byelection result closely.

WATCH | PM says he Liberals have 'much more work to do,' following byelection loss:

‘Not the result that we wanted,’ Trudeau on Liberal Toronto-St.Paul’s byelection loss
23 hours ago
Duration1:10
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he and his Liberal team have ‘much more work to do,’ following the loss of a Liberal seat in the Toronto-St.Paul’s riding.
"This was a very, very decisive defeat, from a [previous] very strong victory," Baylis said, adding he understood the frustration of Liberal MPs who are concerned about their chances at reelection.

"Prime Minister Trudeau will decide what he wants to do if and when he decides to do that, that's his prerogative," Baylis said.

He added only then would he decide his own next steps.

On Tuesday, Trudeau addressed the byelection results but gave no indication he was thinking of stepping down.

"I and my entire team have much more hard work to do to deliver tangible, real progress that Canadians can see and feel," he said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Wednesday, June 19, 2024.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on June 19. On Tuesday, Trudeau addressed the Toronto-St. Paul's byelection results but gave no indication he was thinking of stepping down. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
Two Liberal MPs, speaking to CBC News on the condition they not be named, said they have heard of Baylis considering a leadership run.

"This has been an open secret," said one MP, who said Baylis had been one of the best new Liberal parliamentarians for the term he was elected to public office.

The MP said Baylis's name has floated around for years, though also added "at a time like this, I don't think he has the necessary experience."

Another Liberal MP said they personally advised Baylis to seriously start thinking about mounting a national campaign.

ANALYSIS

After St. Paul's, is there anything Trudeau can say or do to save his leadership?
Trudeau says he hears Canadians' 'concerns and frustrations' after dramatic byelection loss
"[Baylis] was hoping he had about two years left," this MP said. "His plan was to ramp it up over time and not be ready just now."

Nobody has publicly thrown their hat into the ring with definite plans to replace Trudeau, though former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has not ruled it out, and the Globe and Mail has reported Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc was eyeing the position.

Baylis a staunch opponent of Quebec secularism law
Though he has stayed largely out of the public eye after leaving office, Baylis has been a staunch opponent of Bill 21, the controversial Quebec legislation that bars public sector workers in positions of authority from wearing overt religious symbols such as hijabs or yarmulkes at their jobs, for the sake of secularism.

He is the co-president of Non à la Loi 21 (No to Law 21), one of many organizations hoping to fight the legislation at the Supreme Court of Canada.

Elections Canada defends slow counting process for byelection, blames 84-candidate ballot
A breakdown of the stunning Tory win in Toronto–St. Paul's
The law remains popular in Quebec, a province that is key to the Liberal Party's fortunes in federal elections. However, Baylis said he was not concerned about openly challenging its discriminatory nature.

"Too many times I see, in all politics, people are making this kind of political calculation: what will get me votes versus what's the right thing to do," he said, adding he is convinced most Quebecers would side against the law if they understood its negative societal impacts.

He said his mother, Gloria Baylis, a Black woman from Barbados, made history as the first person to win a racial discrimination lawsuit against an employer in Canada in 1965.

Controversy at company
Baylis faced controversy shortly after he stepped down from office.

In December 2020, he testified before a Parliamentary Committee about his company Baylis Medical Tech taking part in a consortium that received $237 million from the federal government to procure 10,000 ventilators during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

He defended the contract, saying the ventilators the company helped build have since been in demand in other countries, such as Pakistan, India and Ukraine.

"It's about having Canadian industry step up when there's a crisis," he said.

He said he would not be surprised if political opponents try to attack him over the procurement. "That's OK. I'm a big boy, this is politics, I understand that," he said.

But he insisted he would tell Canadians the truth about the ventilators, pointing to an award he received from an NGO for donating medical equipment to Ukraine.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Raffy Boudjikanian
Senior reporter
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  #9299  
Old Posted Today, 5:02 PM
acottawa acottawa is online now
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Not being associated with the 2020-present idiocy is certainly an advantage.
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