BC Political Discussion: Election 2024 & 43rd Parliament

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Err doesn't that support the thesis? Once the homophobia of the candidate was revealed they "resigned" from the candidacy. Their vetting process seems to leave a lot to be desired, but it also seems as though this is the type of behaviour they claim to want to filter out.

It could be, until recently the BC Cons weren't taken seriously or drawing top drawer candidates so it wasn't hard to get a nomination. Playing devil's advocate though, a lot of their hardcore base may drift away if they just become BC Liberals II.

I expect the Social Credit/BC Liberal/BC United machine will just drift over to Rustad now the dam has been breached. Personally I think it's a shame that the Right always seems to think they have to be one party to defeat the NDP, rather than a coalition gov't of two parties. That makes voters cynical about democracy when they see a party they felt closely represented their views just morph into the establishment.

[Migrant_Coconut]

It's a Canadian thing, same with PC/Reform and PC/Wildrose - the Red Tories and Blue Tories don't have enough votes on their own to win a FPTP election.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Don't believe I've said otherwise - only that 1) the pro-trans, anti-gay circle C doesn't exist, and 2) the anti-trans, anti-gay circle D does not touch either of those circles, and I'm willing to bet most of those are voting BC Con.

Oops I meant a lot of British Columbians live inside the B area but outside the A area, these are the British Columbians that the BC Conservative party can't afford to lose.

The NDP obviously have area A under wraps and the BC Conservatives obviously have area D (outside the circles) under wraps, but in order to stay relevant the BC Conservatives need to live at least inside the B area.

I noticed that the Paul Ratchford candidate seems to have scrubbed his Twitter and is celebrating Sturko joining the party so all the evidence continues to support that the BC Cons are at least trying to be amenable to LGB if not T.

Also I didn't realise this needed to be said but if it's not clear I'm not trying to "throw trans people under the bus", I just want to acknowledge the political landscape in British Columbia. LGB acceptance for the most part is a settled issue in BC and Canada as a whole. T acceptance, not so much.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by chowhou

The NDP obviously have area A under wraps and the BC Conservatives obviously have area D (outside the circles) under wraps, but in order to stay relevant the BC Conservatives need to live at least inside the B area.

Yup. The Libs/United managed to square that circle by courting the B group and exiling the Ds, but the Cons have shifted further right; personally I doubt they'll manage to snag B and dogwhistle to D at the same time.

[whatnext]

It used to be the BC Libs got the "celebrity" candidates but this time around former Global BC newscaster Randene Neill is running for the NDP in Powell River-Sunshine Coast:

https://vancouversun.com/news/politi...source=twitter

[chowhou]

Seems like BC United and the BC Conservative Party are having trouble attracting candidates that they themselves are comfortable with.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...pped-1.7233215

B.C. United missteps divide Muslim community, strategist claims
Party dropped Asad Gondal following online backlash to his previous Gaza, 2SLGBTQ+ comments

A former B.C. United strategist says the party made a major misstep by tapping, then dropping, the head of the B.C. Muslim Association as a candidate in a key Surrey riding.

Asad Gondal was dropped by B.C. United three days after he was introduced by Leader Kevin Falcon as the candidate for Surrey North. It came after online backlash to some of Gondal's previous statements on the war in Gaza and on 2SLGBTQ+ issues.

Kareem Allam, a Vancouver-based political strategist who previously worked on Falcon's leadership campaign in 2022, said the party viewed Gondal as a way to win support from the Muslim community.

My favourite paragraphs are at the bottom:

This is the first candidate that B.C. United has had to drop. It leaves the party scrambling for a new candidate for Surrey North four months before the provincial election.

Surrey is a key battleground riding. Ten seats are up for grabs, seven of which are held by NDP incumbents. The election is set for Oct. 19.

The B.C. Conservatives have lost three candidates due to controversial social media comments.

The most recent was Damon Scrase, the former candidate for Courtenay-Comox, who resigned following social media posts which said Pride parades have become places where "perverts" expose themselves to children.

The party also dropped Jan Webb in the Esquimalt-Colwood riding for claiming that vaccinated people spread COVID-19. Denman Island doctor Stephen Malthouse was removed as a candidate for claiming that COVID-19 vaccines make a person magnetic.

[Changing City]

Another BC United candidate jumps ship to the Conservative, on the Sunshine Coast.

This seems to confirm that BC United wasn't really a Liberal party (even when they had the name) as so many of their MLAs, and candidates (and voters, if the polls are to be believed), were Conservatives.

It also suggests that they were anything but United, as the haemorrhaging continues.

[Migrant_Coconut]

"Any man who must say, 'I am the King' is no true king." Ditto the People's Party and every dictatorship and/or junta calling itself a People's Democratic Republic."

[MIPS]

This is just so weird.
The fact that the BC Liberals have been so unable to recover after the last two elections to the point the Greens might actually get more seats than them.
It's the greens. The greens!

[Migrant_Coconut]

Red Tories seem to be having a bad time overall this century.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Red Tories seem to be having a bad time overall this century.

US conservatives have gone all-in on made up culture war BS, MAGA, racism, and being anti-science/anti-vax/generally just conspiracy theory lunatics. Considering the success they're having, it's not surprising that it is emboldening Canadian social conservatives to start dropping the mask and I just don't see them tolerating Red Tories in the next stage of their political movement.

[BaddieB]

New poll (although sample date is from May 21 to 25) gives NDP 15 point lead among decideds.

NDP - 47
BCC - 32
BCU - 13
Green - 7

This seems like an outlier, most (online) polls put the NDP at 10 point leads, but the greens seem to be a bit weaker here. I imagine if it comes close, a lot of Greens will go NDP, but we'll see.

Something to note is the NDP does very well with older voters, who we all know are more likely to vote. The NDP is at 36% for the Boomers/Silents, BCC at 16% and BCU at 7%, 36% '"none of these parties". The BCC is doing much better with Gen Z (who, good for the NDP, don't vote).

https://navltd.com/taking-the-pulse-bc/

[djmk]

Originally Posted by BaddieB

New poll (although sample date is from May 21 to 25) gives NDP 15 point lead among decideds.

NDP - 47
BCC - 32
BCU - 13
Green - 7

This seems like an outlier, most (online) polls put the NDP at 10 point leads, but the greens seem to be a bit weaker here. I imagine if it comes close, a lot of Greens will go NDP, but we'll see.

Something to note is the NDP does very well with older voters, who we all know are more likely to vote. The NDP is at 36% for the Boomers/Silents, BCC at 16% and BCU at 7%, 36% '"none of these parties". The BCC is doing much better with Gen Z (who, good for the NDP, don't vote).

https://navltd.com/taking-the-pulse-bc/

a 15 point lead in a first past the post system is a huge lead especially with BCC and BCU splitting the vote

[whatnext]

Bit of a blow to the Greens. Now they just have Sonya Furstenau's charisma to rely on.

B.C. Green MLA Adam Olsen won't seek re-election, citing 'existential re-evaluation'
Published June 25, 2024 12:07 p.m. PDT

British Columbia Green Party MLA Adam Olsen will not seek re-election this year, the two-term member of the legislature announced Tuesday, citing "an existential re-evaluation of what is truly important to me."

Olsen, one of only two Green MLAs in the B.C. legislature alongside party leader Sonia Furstenau, made the announcement Tuesday during a news conference in Victoria.

Olsen was first elected to the Vancouver Island riding of Saanich North and the Islands in 2017, and won re-election in 2020. He served as the interim leader of the B.C. Green Party from 2013 to 2015 and then once again before Furstenau was elected leader in 2020....

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-green-mla-...tion-1.6940526

[whatnext]

I'm going to put this here as many forumers don't go to the Canada section. Could Christy Clark be planning a run as to replace Trudeau?

Former B.C. premier Christy Clark calls for Justin Trudeau to be replaced
MARIEKE WALSH SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER
BILL CURRY DEPUTY OTTAWA BUREAU CHIEF
OTTAWA
PUBLISHED 3 HOURS AGO

Former B.C. premier Christy Clark says Prime Minister Justin Trudeau needs to be replaced and suggested MPs begin having private conversations with the Liberal Leader about the party’s electoral prospects if he stays on...

... ”This government hasn’t been focused on economic growth, we’re sliding back in our standard of living,” she said. “The Liberal Party of Canada has to get back to being a party of job creation and of fatter wallets for Canadians.”

She said that’s what the Liberal Party was about under Prime Minister Jean Chrétien and subsequent prime minister Paul Martin, and that people from that generation “want our party back.”..

....Ms. Clark has been rumoured to be considering a federal leadership run but on Thursday said at the moment she’s not planning to run federally and noted that the position isn’t open. However, she added that she knows people want her to run...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/poli...trudeau-to-be/


In the context of the upcoming provincial election I find it interesting that someone with Clark's Federal "L"iberal background would probably be considered on the left side of BC United and extreme left in Rustad's Conservatives.