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  #881  
Old Posted May 22, 2024, 8:46 PM
drewber drewber is offline
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Originally Posted by sailor734 View Post
Just saw a CTV story with the headline “ Poverty and food insecurity surging in all provinces”

Tough headline for any government to carry into an election…..but I have to think it hurts the federal liberals the most. Voters tend to see economic conditions as national issue.
Poverty and food insecurity are caused by inflation which is high world wide so not a federal issue exactly. We're still 16 months away from a federal election so depending on interest rates and inflation rates it may not be as big of an issue by then
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  #882  
Old Posted May 22, 2024, 8:49 PM
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The parties don't like each other. They're not friends. They are not interchangable. As if to prove my point, YESTERDAY Arseneau accused the Liberals of forcing nursing home residents, including his grandmother, to register with the party during their most recent leadership race. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...ters-1.7205317

Your comment about a Higgs deeming a minority government constitutional is unfounded. We'd simply get BC 2017 redux at most.

No coalition talk will come until after an election. What this guy asked for was rejected by both parties very clearly. What he suggests is not something winning parties do-- Unite to Remain flipped precisely one extremely vulnerable Tory seat in the UK in 2019. The big-tent 'Por México al Frente' and 'Va por México' coalitions both failed in 2018 and 2021. These are moves floundering parties make. The NB Liberals are not floundering, they just have horrible vote distribution, which they're attempting to undo with 'good-government moderates' and have a strong chance at doing so. How you view this as subjective, IDK.

I am not amenable to the PCs or CPC for various reasons, which are not remotely relevant to development, taxation, social policy, or electoral politics. I simply like the entertainment aspect of provincial politics.

Amalgamation would be awful for the annexed and would produce few tangible benefits for residents. Saint John can't manage the lands it annexed in the 20th century properly, let alone taking on 3/4 of Kings County's population. I have no desire to inflict Brent Harris, Ivan Court, etc. types on anyone else. All these localities are functionally governed, and AFAIK have no serious financial issues. Within the last decade Saint John was under provincial direction reminiscent of Detroit. What I would do is fully municipalize the province. Either incorporate the rural districts if populated and contiguous, or annex their lands to neighbouring municipalities. The Southeast RD had 8 segments across two counties, for example. We could probably do with fewer types. We have one regional municipality. Not needed. Villages and towns should be merged into a single type, with larger towns pushed towards city status.

I just assume Higgs would take a similar approach to Harper in 2008 when the opposition parties attempted to form a collation. Higgs would try and call it undemocratic and push for a do over. As for Higgs deeming a minority government unconstitutional… not sure what you mean. I never said that.

Regardless, strategic voting will be crucial in this next election. Best bet for the province, and entertainment value would be another minority government situation like 2018. Fingers crossed.


As for amalgamation? Awful for the annexed areas? In what way? If we all amalgamated tomorrow, Rothesay, Quispamsis, and Grand Bay would still be very nice communities. They wouldn’t be wiped off the map or suddenly become terrible places to live.

Not wanting to inflict Brent Harris types on the valley… how kind and thoughtful of you. But I think your logic is flawed. If we amalgamated, the valley could play a role in saving us from having toxic people like Brent Harris on council, rather than us taking the brunt of these types caustic influence on our city’s development.

It’s interesting you brought up Detroit, because it’s quite an analogous comparison. What we have in The Saint John Region is a very typical American style city and suburbs outside the city situation. Which is atypical in Canada. Why we’d want to follow the Detroit model instead of the Halifax or Toronto model is just beyond reason at this point.

No matter how you try and spin it, it’s a rotten situation in the Saint John Region. The city’s top income earners overwhelmingly live outside the city limits, have disproportionate influence on the politics and economy of a city in which they don’t reside, and many of the top positions at the City of Saint John are held by people who live outside the city. Meanwhile, Quispamsis, Rothesay, Grand Bay’s leaders try and say they already contribute their “fair share” towards the City of Saint John, and that providing anymore would start to be unfair to them. Their combined contributions are a mere drop in the bucket towards the city budget, but close to half of the regions population now resides outside the city limits.

While amalgamation might have been unpopular for some of Halifax’s most affluent suburbs, it would be objectively false to say amalgamation was awful for them. I see no reason to believe the situation would be any different here in the Saint John Region. It would be unpopular among the most affluent suburbs, but it would in no way be awful for them. It would set the entire region up for sustained, long term economic growth and development. The only thing keeping it from happening is the oversized political clout of these affluent suburbs, but the eventually, it’s just going to be inevitable.

One of the unique opportunities afforded by amalgamation could be a chance for a name change. The constituent communities would retain their names, but the Regional Municipality as a whole would probably benefit with going with something more marketable and original than “Saint John Regional Municipality”. Such a change could help quell confusion between Saint John and St. John’s, which is a bigger issue than many here seem to think, and which has always been a bigger issue for Saint John than St. John’s.

Most importantly, it would be a comprehensive solution to dealing with disparities and inefficiencies within the Saint John Region that exist today. It would save the Region money overall, even if it cost Rothesay a little more.

What’s good for Saint John is good for Rothesay; however, the converse of this adage is rarely the case, if not never. I’ve always been of the opinion that a suburb is only as good as the city at its core… the last model we should be looking to follow here is Detroit and other American cities with bedroom communities that double as tax shelters.

I’ve yet to hear a single cogent argument for why Amalgamation worked for Halifax, but wouldn’t work for Saint John. Just the same old tired arguments that it would be bad for KV, or highly biased and inaccurate sob stories about how regional amalgamation was actually bad for Halifax’s suburbs.

I think we’d all like to Envision a Saint John where the city and its suburbs had more equal, cooperative relations, than the situation there persisted for decades now, with quite a lot of antagonism, finger pointing, and ear plugging between Saint John and its suburbs. The city-suburb dynamic here sucks frankly, and it’s one of the aspects of the region we should be the least proud of. I don’t see a way to change this situation, short of amalgamation. Forcing Quispamsis to stop calling itself a town and start calling itself a city would barely change anything. I appreciate your response and idea, I just fail to see how it would be as nearly as positive a change for Saint John when compared to regional amalgamation. Hopefully amalgamation is something we see realized in our lifetimes.
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  #883  
Old Posted May 22, 2024, 9:34 PM
CharlotteCountyLogan CharlotteCountyLogan is offline
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My quick though on amalgamation that has already happened is that I live in a area that was never a municipality until we amalgamated into Eastern Charlotte in 2022. The pros are we have local representation. The cons are the taxes are higher and everything still goes to St. Geroge and Black's Harbour like it always did. So I understand why some people may be opposed to amalagating with a place such as Saint John.
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  #884  
Old Posted May 22, 2024, 10:05 PM
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Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan View Post
My quick though on amalgamation that has already happened is that I live in an area that was never a municipality until we amalgamated into Eastern Charlotte in 2022. The pros are we have local representation. The cons are the taxes are higher and everything still goes to St. Geroge and Black's Harbour like it always did. So I understand why some people may be opposed to amalagating with a place such as Saint John.
Not a very analogous comparison, to be fair.

Could you also understand why many Saint Johnners feel Quispamsis, Rothesay, and Grand Bay don’t pay their fair share towards Saint John, the city which they are suburbs of? Or why many SJers are for amalgamating with these surrounding suburbs, whose residents mostly work in Saint John, and spend a lot of their free time in Saint John.

Not sure why the opinion of the few to keep the status quo should outweigh the desire of the majority for a more cooperative and fair amalgamated municipality.

It’s not like it has to come down to a vote or anything. The PCs pushed through quite a few regional amalgamations without regional votes in 2022, including in Fredericton’s and Moncton’s region.

Why is it always a non starter when it comes to Saint John? And why do the opinions of those who live in Rothesay and Quispamsis seemingly carry ten times the weight as those who live in Saint John?
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  #885  
Old Posted May 23, 2024, 12:24 AM
sailor734 sailor734 is online now
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Poverty and food insecurity are caused by inflation which is high world wide so not a federal issue exactly. We're still 16 months away from a federal election so depending on interest rates and inflation rates it may not be as big of an issue by then
You are talking reality, not politics. When people are hurting and times are tough in the country, federal governments get the old heave-ho. Right now the Cole's Notes explanation of Canadian Politics for 75+% of the population can be summed up as "Trudeau and his liberals bad, must go"

Yes, that could change in the next 16 months but Trudeau has been under water in the polls for 12 months now and the trend is still downwards or at best flat. At 23-25% support they are down to the die hards... people who would vote for a fence post if it was painted red. Could he still recover? Absolutely, but with every passing month it is getting less and less likely.
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  #886  
Old Posted May 26, 2024, 7:11 PM
adamuptownsj adamuptownsj is online now
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A coupel items, one predictable and one surprising.

1- Andrea Anderson-Mason will not seek another term. I'm surprised Poitras couldn't get a Higgs denunciation out of her. That's all the 713 rebels gone. Surprised none are running as Liberals, given the moderate track Holt seems to be taking with Anglo nominees. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...-run-1.7214119

2- An NDP member, supporter, or observer seems to be aware of 8 upcoming nominations, across the province but with 4 in the eastern half of Greater Saint John, and has updated Wikipedia to say 'announcement coming soon'. PCs, Greens, and PA remain unchanged, Libs tick up 1 to 35. Interesting to see the Dippers are actually dragging a slate together.
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  #887  
Old Posted May 27, 2024, 2:15 AM
Ozabald Ozabald is offline
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Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn View Post
Not a very analogous comparison, to be fair.

Could you also understand why many Saint Johnners feel Quispamsis, Rothesay, and Grand Bay don’t pay their fair share towards Saint John, the city which they are suburbs of? Or why many SJers are for amalgamating with these surrounding suburbs, whose residents mostly work in Saint John, and spend a lot of their free time in Saint John.

Not sure why the opinion of the few to keep the status quo should outweigh the desire of the majority for a more cooperative and fair amalgamated municipality.

It’s not like it has to come down to a vote or anything. The PCs pushed through quite a few regional amalgamations without regional votes in 2022, including in Fredericton’s and Moncton’s region.

Why is it always a non starter when it comes to Saint John? And why do the opinions of those who live in Rothesay and Quispamsis seemingly carry ten times the weight as those who live in Saint John?
Saint John did go through an amalgamation in 1967 with the District of Simonds and City of Lancaster becoming part of SJ. Was it beneficial for SJ or would have the region been better off if there was still a Lancaster, NB and Saint John remained a smaller and more dense city?
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  #888  
Old Posted May 27, 2024, 12:56 PM
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Saint John did go through an amalgamation in 1967 with the District of Simonds and City of Lancaster becoming part of SJ. Was it beneficial for SJ or would have the region been better off if there was still a Lancaster, NB and Saint John remained a smaller and more dense city?
It was definitely beneficial for Saint John, but perhaps not as much for Lancaster.

The development trajectory of SJ has been almost entirely eastwards since then.

Most of the highest paid workers in Saint John now live in Quispamsis and Rothesay, yet these "towns" contribute pretty paltry sums towards Saint John... I believe both contribute less than $1 million each per year, which is a joke.

It's definitely a case of them wanting to have their cake, and eating it too.

Halifax Regional Municipality style amalgamation for Saint John would be an absolute game changer for the region. How many studies should the government fund that recommend amalgamation for the Saint John Region before they actually act on it?
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  #889  
Old Posted May 27, 2024, 3:18 PM
Taeolas Taeolas is offline
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It'll probably take a lot more studies to force amalgamation, mainly for two reasons I can think of off the top of my head.

The biggest is basically the Tri-city in the room. If the province decides to force SJ to amalgamate, there will be a hell of a lot of pressure to force Moncton to amalgamate as well, which leads to the second issue.

Forcing Moncton and SJ to amalgamate would be absolutely deadly to any Premier, and probably to any party that forces it, at least for a decade+. So that will be a major political damper on any major urban amalgamation plans, unless we get a situation where a party knows they're going to be in the weeds for a few cycles anyways and they want to go out with a bang. (Higgs is probably in that position now, but he clearly doesn't have the desire to push any more municipal amalgamation plans)

Surprisingly, I don't really see Fredericton being in as bad a position. Freddy doesn't have the bedroom communities around it like SJ and Moncton have gotten. Oromocto is the only real 'thorn' in Freddy's urban fabric, and while it is big, it really isn't an issue like Riverview/Dieppe to Moncton or Rothesay/Quispamsis are to SJ.

That said, if a party were to bite the bullet and force urban amalgamation on SJ and Moncton, they should probably also force a Freddy Capital Region and pull in Oromocto, Lincoln, Hanwell, Marysville, Maugerville, etc... as well, and get it all over with all at once.
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  #890  
Old Posted May 27, 2024, 11:25 PM
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It'll probably take a lot more studies to force amalgamation, mainly for two reasons I can think of off the top of my head.

The biggest is basically the Tri-city in the room. If the province decides to force SJ to amalgamate, there will be a hell of a lot of pressure to force Moncton to amalgamate as well, which leads to the second issue.

Forcing Moncton and SJ to amalgamate would be absolutely deadly to any Premier, and probably to any party that forces it, at least for a decade+. So that will be a major political damper on any major urban amalgamation plans, unless we get a situation where a party knows they're going to be in the weeds for a few cycles anyways and they want to go out with a bang. (Higgs is probably in that position now, but he clearly doesn't have the desire to push any more municipal amalgamation plans)

Surprisingly, I don't really see Fredericton being in as bad a position. Freddy doesn't have the bedroom communities around it like SJ and Moncton have gotten. Oromocto is the only real 'thorn' in Freddy's urban fabric, and while it is big, it really isn't an issue like Riverview/Dieppe to Moncton or Rothesay/Quispamsis are to SJ.

That said, if a party were to bite the bullet and force urban amalgamation on SJ and Moncton, they should probably also force a Freddy Capital Region and pull in Oromocto, Lincoln, Hanwell, Marysville, Maugerville, etc... as well, and get it all over with all at once.
If the Liberals were to amalgamate greater Saint John and left it at that, how would it exactly be deadly to them? Rothesay and Quispamsis vote pretty reliably conservative anyways. Might actually help them win re-election since Saint Johnners will see it as the province doing something positive to for Saint John for once.

It’s been studied so many times already and the reports all basically say the same thing.


Yet, Saint Johnners never ever seen to try to make this an election issue. Envision Saint John didn’t deliver the game changing benefits it was promised to bring. Amalgamation would be an actual game changer.
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  #891  
Old Posted May 28, 2024, 6:05 PM
sailor734 sailor734 is online now
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Just saw this. I'm not up to speed on Moncton area politics. Was this expected? It seems odd to run in a byelection one year and then decide not to reoffer the next.
Did he jump or was he pushed?


"Please join me in wishing our MLA for Dieppe, Richard Losier all the best with his next chapter. Richard announced today that he does not intend to run in the upcoming election in October. Richard was elected in a 2023 by-election and has spent the last year serving the people of his riding, ensuring their voices have been heard in Fredericton and holding the Higgs government to account in his role as Housing critic.

In a statement he shared today Richard says “Over the past year, it has been an honour and a privilege to serve as MLA for Dieppe. I am deeply grateful for the opportunity to have contributed to our community in this capacity. I want to express my gratitude to our party leader, Susan Holt, for her leadership and determination. Susan will be a great Premier for all New Brunswickers and I am confident that her vision and dedication will make New Brunswick a unified and prosperous province, once again.”

Prior to his time in government, Richard spent many years working in primary, secondary, and tertiary health care, as well as in the public and private sectors. Please join me in wishing Richard all the best with his future endeavours.

Sincerely,


Carley Parish K.C.

President

New Brunswick Liberal Association"
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  #892  
Old Posted May 28, 2024, 6:18 PM
adamuptownsj adamuptownsj is online now
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Just saw this. I'm not up to speed on Moncton area politics. Was this expected? It seems odd to run in a byelection one year and then decide not to reoffer the next.
Did he jump or was he pushed?
Fredericton isn't for everyone. It's a crappy commute and a thankless job. Hell, Gary Keating never even took his seat when he won in the 2014 general. $93K is a good salary, but not so good if we want top mid-career talent in the legislature.

Pushed, I doubt it. Every other Liberal incumbent was renominated and this guy was, AFAIK, a bog-standard and uncontroversial MLA. Maybe they have a rock star in the wings, though.
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  #893  
Old Posted May 28, 2024, 7:32 PM
sailor734 sailor734 is online now
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Good points. The reality of a MLA’s day to day life might well come as an unpleasant surprise to someone coming from senior management positions.
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  #894  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2024, 9:25 PM
sailor734 sailor734 is online now
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TJ reporting Higgs' communications director Nicolle Carlin has resigned in order to run for the PC's in Fredericton South -Silverwood against Susan Holt.
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  #895  
Old Posted Jun 6, 2024, 8:25 PM
sailor734 sailor734 is online now
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TJ is reporting a new Narrative research poll. Among decided voters it's 37% Lib 34% PC and 13% each for Greens and NDP. That last one surprises me a bit. I would have expected the Greens to show stronger than the moribund NB NDP party. Interestingly, the undecided has risen from 19% to 30%

In spite of the vitriol against Higgs in some of the various online comment sections it still looks like a real horse race with a significant chance of a hung legislature.

I'll be interested to see what 338Canada makes of this when they update their seat projections. The efficiency of the PC vote may actually having them projected to squeak out a 1 or 2 seat majority.
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  #896  
Old Posted Jun 6, 2024, 8:58 PM
CharlotteCountyLogan CharlotteCountyLogan is offline
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PC contested convention

In some local news there is a contested convention for the PC nomination in Fundy-the-Isles-Saint John West between the Deputy Mayor and a well known teacher at the high school. This riding was one of the safest for the PCs in 2020 however with Andrea Anderson-Mason not running again this riding which was held by the Liberals from 1978-2018 could be competitive.
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  #897  
Old Posted Jun 6, 2024, 9:18 PM
adamuptownsj adamuptownsj is online now
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Originally Posted by sailor734 View Post
TJ is reporting a new Narrative research poll. Among decided voters it's 37% Lib 34% PC and 13% each for Greens and NDP. That last one surprises me a bit. I would have expected the Greens to show stronger than the moribund NB NDP party. Interestingly, the undecided has risen from 19% to 30%

In spite of the vitriol against Higgs in some of the various online comment sections it still looks like a real horse race with a significant chance of a hung legislature.

I'll be interested to see what 338Canada makes of this when they update their seat projections. The efficiency of the PC vote may actually having them projected to squeak out a 1 or 2 seat majority.
No polling company other than Narrative with their tiny sample sizes has bothered since Leger in December 2022. I'd like to see some more.

Cardy beat the poll averages in 2014 with 13%, and McKenzie narrowly underperformed the poll averages in 2018 with 5%. The wheels came off with Thomason and he underperformed polling, albeit with only 33 candidates (0 on the North Shore, only 5 in substantially French areas) in 2020. If they get a mostly full slate maybe they'll go back to 5%. How much of that saves Higgs' bacon and how much melts into inconsequential French seats, we'll see. Honestly it's probably just progressive voters moving from Trudeau to Singh, and carrying that sentiment to the provincial election. That won't hold up. I doubt 13% is possible for them.

Everything else makes sense, I'd peg all three of the PCs, Liberals, and Greens as a couple higher.
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  #898  
Old Posted Jun 6, 2024, 9:38 PM
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338Canada did a prediction update on March 7 of this year after a poll. I don't remember who it was
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