Provincial Politics

[PoscStudent]

The PCs seemed to struggle to find a candidate for Fogo Island - Cape Freels but in the end managed to pull out a large win. On the other hand, the Liberals had 1200 people vote in their nomination.

Fred Hutton obviously played a big role in the Liberals winning Conception Bay East - Bell Island, but with the result in FI-CF it’s clear that there’s definitely issues that are penetrating in rural areas that aren’t in urban NL. Federally over the last couple elections we’ve seen a shift where rural areas are becoming more conservative and urban areas are between the Liberals and NDP, which is the case in most other provinces. Provincially the PCs used to dominate St. John’s but that’s changed over the last 15 years and even their grip on the suburbs have been decreasing while rural areas have been a bit more blue despite the Liberals forming government.

Baie Verte - Green Bay was already looking promising for the PCs as they nominated their former candidate who had a very strong performance last election. After this week’s by-election I would think they’re the clear favourites. The Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate and I have not seen anyone announce they’re running.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by SuperCat

You were right on with your percentages but picked the wrong horse!
PCs 3290 57.7%
Libs 2244 39.3%
NDP 169 3%

This makes two by-elections in a row where if I just switched the PC and Liberal vote share that I'd be spot on.

I at least understand Fred Hutton upsetting the PC's in Conception Bay, but this one is a true shocker. I agree with what Poscstudent said. I think there was more to this by-election than just fisheries. Getting a heavy feeling of "fuck Trudeau" out of this one.

If anyone has been following my election predictions since 2019 you know I'm very bullish on the PCs in Baie Verte, even though they've failed to win twice in a row. If they can win Fogo Island in this climate then I would think that Baie Verte is a very easy pickup for them.

[Marty_Mcfly]

By-election this Monday for Baie Verte-Green Bay. Matchup between PC Lin Paddock, and Conservative masquerading as a Liberal Owen Burt.

Will give a final numbers prediction Monday, but this feels like a very easy PC gain.

[PoscStudent]

Health Minister Tom Osborne has also announced he’s leaving politics. I’m thinking we could see a general election before a by-election in his district. Nonetheless it will be an interesting seat to watch. Osborne has easily held it as a PC and a Liberal so hard to know what support the actual parties have in the district. PCs used to dominate St. John’s but that support shifted a bit to the NDP and in recent elections to the Liberals.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Yeah, I doubt the PC's will have much success flipping Waterford Valley. The political realignment that's happened over the past 15'ish years has pretty much pushed the PCs out of the city.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Baie Verte-Green Bay by-election prediction:

PC: 60%
LIB: 36%
NDP: 4%

Let's be generous to the NDP this time around, they may be able to pull the tiny bit of progressive vote that won't vote for the CPC member running for the Liberals.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Baie Verte-Green Bay by-election prediction:

PC: 60%
LIB: 36%
NDP: 4%

Let's be generous to the NDP this time around, they may be able to pull the tiny bit of progressive vote that won't vote for the CPC member running for the Liberals.

Unofficial results:

PC: 79%
LIB: 19%
NDP: 2%

Holy crap lol. Unexpected ass-kicking.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Unofficial results:

PC: 79%
LIB: 19%
NDP: 2%

Holy crap lol. Unexpected ass-kicking.

Don’t know how you were so off the mark on this one and didn’t predict a 31 point jump in support for the PCs.

Voter turnout was at 56.49%, an increase from the 2021 election and a good turnout for a by-election.

This has traditionally been a PC seat but the size of the win should be worrying for the Liberals. I just looked back to the 2007 results when Tom Rideout was on the ballot and Danny Williams won his huge majority. Rideout won 75.5% of the vote and had around 900 fewer votes than what Paddock won in the by-election. That’s not to say Wakeham would win a majority government of that size, or even form government if an election were held, but after two by-elections it appears there is a large shift in voter intention in some rural areas.

The coming months should be interesting. Tom Osborne has announced that he’ll soon be retiring from provincial politics. Will Furey call a by-election in Waterford Valley or call a fall general election, which has been rumoured? You would have to think that last night’s by-election that the Liberals would be concerned about an early election.

St. John’s City Councillor and Olympian Jamie Korab has already announced he’s running for the Liberal nomination in Osborne’s Waterford Valley district. Osborne has been on the ballot in this area for almost 30 years so hard to know how him not running will impact voter turnout as he won big majorities as a PC and a Liberal. The fact that the Liberals have already attracted a prominent candidate for the district, he might still need to win a nomination, is a positive sign for them. With Fred Hutton’s win earlier the year, maybe it’s possible the Liberals are becoming the party of metro St. John’s?

I would think after last night’s win for the PCs that it would probably be best for Furey to call a by-election in Waterford Valley hoping that a win will show that the party can still attract good candidates and win.

[J_Murphy]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

Don’t know how you were so off the mark on this one and didn’t predict a 31 point jump in support for the PCs.

Voter turnout was at 56.49%, an increase from the 2021 election and a good turnout for a by-election.

This has traditionally been a PC seat but the size of the win should be worrying for the Liberals. I just looked back to the 2007 results when Tom Rideout was on the ballot and Danny Williams won his huge majority. Rideout won 75.5% of the vote and had around 900 fewer votes than what Paddock won in the by-election. That’s not to say Wakeham would win a majority government of that size, or even form government if an election were held, but after two by-elections it appears there is a large shift in voter intention in some rural areas.

The coming months should be interesting. Tom Osborne has announced that he’ll soon be retiring from provincial politics. Will Furey call a by-election in Waterford Valley or call a fall general election, which has been rumoured? You would have to think that last night’s by-election that the Liberals would be concerned about an early election.

St. John’s City Councillor and Olympian Jamie Korab has already announced he’s running for the Liberal nomination in Osborne’s Waterford Valley district. Osborne has been on the ballot in this area for almost 30 years so hard to know how him not running will impact voter turnout as he won big majorities as a PC and a Liberal. The fact that the Liberals have already attracted a prominent candidate for the district, he might still need to win a nomination, is a positive sign for them. With Fred Hutton’s win earlier the year, maybe it’s possible the Liberals are becoming the party of metro St. John’s?

I would think after last night’s win for the PCs that it would probably be best for Furey to call a by-election in Waterford Valley hoping that a win will show that the party can still attract good candidates and win.

Let's not forget that the liberal candidate for this district is a member of the CPC. Not sure how that weighed on voters. I do think we will start to see a shift of support to provincial PCs, but this one was a bit strange that the liberals were running a CPC member.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Paddock is a CPC member too so its not like this was an anti-CPC vote.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Paddock is a CPC member too so its not like this was an anti-CPC vote.

The region also has a CPC MP and that party has been polling well in the province so I don’t think that’s much of a negative for candidates now.

[PoscStudent]

City councillor Jamie Korab has been acclaimed as the Liberal candidate in Waterford Valley. The PCs will choose their candidate tomorrow.

https://vocm.com/2024/07/24/jamie-ko...y-by-election/

[Marty_Mcfly]

Really don't know what to predict for this one. I think it'll be a Liberal hold, but probably by a tight window.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Really don't know what to predict for this one. I think it'll be a Liberal hold, but probably by a tight window.

I’m thinking this as well. Tom Osborne was expected to not be involved because of his new job but he was at least at Korab’s launch. Tom being involved should help a lot.

I drove through a couple streets one day near Bowring Park and there were Korab signs. However, I’d be interested in seeing what the sign war is like in Shea Heights.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Waterford Valley prediction

Liberal: 45%
PC: 40%
NDP: 15%

Confidence level: low

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Waterford Valley prediction

Liberal: 45%
PC: 40%
NDP: 15%

Confidence level: low

Based on your previous predictions we are likely to see the PCs get 45% and the Liberals 40% then.

[Malreynolds]

Korab Wins Waterford Valley By-Election

[PoscStudent]

Was close at times during the night but Korab ended up with a comfortable win, largely thanks to special ballots and the advanced poll.

The other thing I noticed was that Korab’s support was most consistent throughout the district. I was watching poll by poll results, the PCs had good showings in Kilbride and Shea Heights but struggled in those areas closer to the downtown. The NDP won a few polls thanks to that more centre city vote but then struggled in other areas, such as Kilbride. The Liberals on the other hand had pretty much the same support in all polls.