Is the old frontier the new frontier?

[pdxtex]

Technically, the US Census closed the frontier in 1890 when they decided there was no longer a distinct line between unsettled wilderness and population centers of the east. Every platted census tract had a person in it. Id argue that massive migration to the west coast is now ending in earnest. Homes have reached prohibitive costs like New England and the population is stagnating. With droves of people now looking towards lower cost metros in the inland west and SE, what do we call this new migration pattern? Its like a boomerang. Eastern settlers went west, but now later Western generations are moving back east. I dont think its curtains for the west coast but I think its safe to say the spotlight is now on the mid Atlantic, Piedmont and Texas. Florida might be gaining people also but its about to suffer the same fate as California. Overcrowding, dangerous weather and high upkeep costs. Florida will be the next big state to "close".

[edale]

Originally Posted by pdxtex

Technically, the US Census closed the frontier in 1890 when they decided there was no longer a distinct line between unsettled wilderness and population centers of the east. Every platted census tract had a person in it. Id argue that massive migration to the west coast is now ending in earnest. Homes have reached prohibitive costs like New England and the population is stagnating. With droves of people now looking towards lower cost metros in the inland west and SE, what do we call this new migration pattern? Its like a boomerang. Eastern settlers went west, but now later Western generations are moving back east. I dont think its curtains for the west coast but I think its safe to say the spotlight is now on the mid Atlantic, Piedmont and Texas. Florida might be gaining people also but its about to suffer the same fate as California. Overcrowding, dangerous weather and high upkeep costs. Florida will be the next big state to "close".

Seems like some of the places experiencing the highest levels of growth are very frontier-like places. SLC/Utah, Denver, Boise, Phoenix/Tucson...all are growing at quite a fast rate, largely fueled by Californians leaving the state. Texas continues to grow quickly too, but I also associate it a bit with a frontier image. I'd argue people are leaving the urbanized West Coast in search of the frontier-- it's just in the interior Mountain West.

It's very rare to hear of Californians moving truly back east* to places like Michigan, Ohio, or Pennsylvania despite the much lower costs of living and better urban amenities (schools, airports, shopping, dining, etc.)

*NYC, and to a lesser extent Boston, of course, are major exceptions to this.

[pdxtex]

The great basin is definitely having an it moment. I get the feeling the high plains are as well. I think eventually people are going to start eyeing the other side of the Appalachian mountains and pay more attention to places like Kentucky or the Ohio River as Nashville gets too expensive. My girlfriends brother moved from Oregon to Knoxville. I know other west coast folks who ended up in Chattanooga too.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by pdxtex

My girlfriends brother moved from Oregon to Knoxville. I know other west coast folks who ended up in Chattanooga too.

Knoxville is starting to get expensive, despite its small size and lack of cuteness. My brother's first house is now worth 3X what he paid for it in 2016.

It hasn't yet begun being overrun by the Nashville tall-skinnies because they didn't make the bone-headed decision to change the zoning. All of these people out there on Twitter pretending that single-family zoning is "racist" need to take a field trip to Nashville and see what happens when you open the floodgates to developers replacing all of the small slab homes with yuppie Tetris pieces.

[bridge25]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

replacing all of the small slab homes with yuppie Tetris pieces.

Sounds good to me

Houses in very highly desirable areas within single-family zoning are often torn down and developed into an obscene McMansion on the same lot at multiple times the price. Or, they are renovated and turned into pricey out-of-reach homes relative to the median income in an area.

Allowing multi-family by right means you can have more people living in apartments or condos at much less cost than one single-family house for the wealthy. What's the problem there exactly?

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by pdxtex

The great basin is definitely having an it moment. I get the feeling the high plains are as well. I think eventually people are going to start eyeing the other side of the Appalachian mountains and pay more attention to places like Kentucky or the Ohio River as Nashville gets too expensive. My girlfriends brother moved from Oregon to Knoxville. I know other west coast folks who ended up in Chattanooga too.

I have some friends who moved to Knoxville and love it there. I also have a relative from Connecticut who just moved to Knoxville. I've never been there myself.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Knoxville is starting to get expensive, despite its small size and lack of cuteness. My brother's first house is now worth 3X what he paid for it in 2016.

It hasn't yet begun being overrun by the Nashville tall-skinnies because they didn't make the bone-headed decision to change the zoning. All of these people out there on Twitter pretending that single-family zoning is "racist" need to take a field trip to Nashville and see what happens when you open the floodgates to developers replacing all of the small slab homes with yuppie Tetris pieces.

everybody everywhere's house is 3X what is was in 2016. at least.

[TexasPlaya]

These things happen in supercycles and there's plenty of America still.