Quote:
Originally Posted by 1overcosc
We're in completely unknown territory. Swing models break down entirely once third parties shift to front runner status, because when this happens it means a third party has acquired new chunks of support it's never had before, whereas swing models only calculate changes in already existing support bases. It's almost impossible to predict how the seats will line up. I do tend to think that the PCs are going to have more efficient distribution regardless so the NDP need at least 2-3 points of a lead to actually win though.
What I find interesting is how firm the Liberal floor is. It's been clear for weeks now that the Liberals are in third and that anyone who wants to stop Ford should vote NDP. Yet strategic voting hasn't really manifested that much, the Liberals are still firmly holding onto that 22%-23% or so of the vote in every poll. The NDP have continued to gain since the Liberals have dropped to the low 20s, but those gains have actually come at the expense of the PCs.
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Some of this is party loyalty but there are also committed centrists. Who do they vote for this cycle? Many are low information voters and voting for Ford already. Some know the extreme positions of both NDP and PC in this election so will stick with Liberals even though they may know this is a wasted vote.