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-   -   Your Projected 2030 CSA Rankings (vs. 2018 CSA Estimates) (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum//showthread.php?t=240323)

JAYNYC Sep 14, 2019 4:47 PM

Your Projected 2030 CSA Rankings (vs. 2018 CSA Estimates)
 
2018 CSA Estimates:

1. New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA Combined Statistical Area
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Combined Statistical Area
3. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Combined Statistical Area
4. Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA Combined Statistical Area
5. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA Combined Statistical Area
6. Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT Combined Statistical Area
7. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK Combined Statistical Area
8. Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD Combined Statistical Area
9. Houston-The Woodlands, TX Combined Statistical Area
10. Miami-Port St. Lucie-Fort Lauderdale, FL Combined Statistical Area
11. Atlanta–Athens-Clarke County–Sandy Springs, GA-AL Combined Statistical Area
12. Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI Combined Statistical Area
13. Phoenix-Mesa, AZ Combined Statistical Area
14. Seattle-Tacoma, WA Combined Statistical Area
15. Orlando-Lakeland-Deltona, FL Combined Statistical Area
16. Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI Combined Statistical Area
17. Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH Combined Statistical Area
18. Denver-Aurora, CO Combined Statistical Area
19. Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA Combined Statistical Area
20. St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL Combined Statistical Area


My 2030 Projections:

1. New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA Combined Statistical Area
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Combined Statistical Area
3. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA Combined Statistical Area
4. Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA Combined Statistical Area
5. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Combined Statistical Area
6. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK Combined Statistical Area
7. Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT Combined Statistical Area
8. Houston-The Woodlands, TX Combined Statistical Area
9. Miami-Port St. Lucie-Fort Lauderdale, FL Combined Statistical Area
10. Atlanta–Athens-Clarke County–Sandy Springs, GA-AL Combined Statistical Area
11. Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD Combined Statistical Area
12. Phoenix-Mesa, AZ Combined Statistical Area
13. Seattle-Tacoma, WA Combined Statistical Area
14. Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI Combined Statistical Area
15. Orlando-Lakeland-Deltona, FL Combined Statistical Area
16. Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI Combined Statistical Area
17. Denver-Aurora, CO Combined Statistical Area
18. Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA Combined Statistical Area
19. Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH Combined Statistical Area
20. Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC Combined Statistical Area

JManc Sep 14, 2019 7:19 PM

I would move Boston below DFW and Houston for 2030. These two cities are projected to add a lot more in that time frame.

austlar1 Sep 14, 2019 8:39 PM

I can imagine San Antonio giving Charlotte a run for that number 20 slot by 2030.

JAYNYC Sep 14, 2019 8:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 8687182)
I would move Boston below DFW and Houston for 2030. These two cities are projected to add a lot more in that time frame.

I already have Boston below DFW for 2030.

Although Houston is on fire, I don't think Houston will surpass Boston by 2030. Unlike NYC & Philly, Boston's CSA is still growing at a decent clip, and is already 1 million+ ahead of Houston's.

2018 CSA Estimates & % Change From 2010:

6. Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT Combined Statistical Area
8,285,407
+4.97%

9. Houston-The Woodlands, TX Combined Statistical Area
7,197,883
+17.72%

pj3000 Sep 14, 2019 10:03 PM

Arbitrary silliness.

JAYNYC Sep 14, 2019 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pj3000 (Post 8687266)
Arbitrary silliness.

Sure, if "arbitrary" means "based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist".

pj3000 Sep 14, 2019 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAYNYC (Post 8687268)
Sure, if "arbitrary" means "based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist".

How does one separate NYC CSA from Philadelphia CSA “based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist” in a manner that is not arbitrary?

JAYNYC Sep 14, 2019 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pj3000 (Post 8687271)
How does one separate NYC CSA from Philadelphia CSA “based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist” in a manner that is not arbitrary?

How does one separate Alabama from Georgia “based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist” in a manner that is not arbitrary?

How does one separate Canada from the United States “based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist” in a manner that is not arbitrary?

How does one separate the Pacific Ocean from the Southern Ocean “based on factual data and documented growth trends that actually exist” in a manner that is not arbitrary?

Your point? :rolleyes:

pj3000 Sep 14, 2019 10:27 PM

You just proved it

JAYNYC Sep 14, 2019 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pj3000 (Post 8687279)
You just proved it

Great, thrilled to know that anything that can be proven based on factual data and documented trends that actually exist is synonymous with arbitrary silliness.

pj3000 Sep 14, 2019 11:01 PM

Again, how does one separate NYC CSA from Philadelphia CSA?

It's a legitimate question. If there is factual data and documented trends, as you state, to prove that it can be done without being arbitrary, then I'm seriously interested in understanding how.

For example, why is Trenton officially part of NYC when geographically and functionally it is much more closely associated with Philly? And considering that Bucks County displays major commuting patterns into the NYC metro area, why is it solely part of Philly? Is the Delaware River the dividing line? If so, why is Allentown part of NYC? :shrug: It's all BS. The answer is, you cannot separate the two via non-arbitrary means. Where do you split Jersey?

Sun Belt Sep 15, 2019 12:59 AM

Phoenix doesn't have a CSA. It's MSA will likely pass Boston by 2020.

Sun Belt Sep 15, 2019 1:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 8687182)
I would move Boston below DFW and Houston for 2030. These two cities are projected to add a lot more in that time frame.

There's no reason to believe Texas cities won't slow down, especially compared to high tax, older established cities.

JAYNYC Sep 15, 2019 1:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Belt (Post 8687369)
Phoenix doesn't have a CSA.

13

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_statistical_area

Sam Hill Sep 15, 2019 1:24 AM

Being the giant nerd that I am, I pretty much have the CSA/MSA rankings memorized. :redface: Something seemed off when I saw that 2018 list. Orlando jumped up a bunch of spots and is now in between Minneapolis/St Paul and Seattle/Tacoma somehow? I looked it up to make sure I'm not crazy. Perhaps someone made some wacky edits to some wikipedia articles? The Census Bureau's data doesn't match the wikipedia articles for CSA's or Primary Statistical Areas.

Sun Belt Sep 15, 2019 1:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAYNYC (Post 8687381)

Is that new? I had no idea.

And if that includes Payson, Arizona -- LOL. Payson has nothing to do with Phoenix. It's at the base of the Mogollon Rim in an Alpine region, with heavy snow in the winter months. I used to sleep in cabin at Kohl's Ranch.

JAYNYC Sep 15, 2019 1:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sam Hill (Post 8687384)
Being the giant nerd that I am, I pretty much have the CSA/MSA rankings memorized. :redface: Something seemed off when I saw that 2018 list. Orlando jumped up a bunch of spots and is now in between Minneapolis/St Paul and Seattle/Tacoma somehow? I looked it up to make sure I'm not crazy. Perhaps someone made some wacky edits to some wikipedia articles? The Census Bureau's data doesn't match the wikipedia articles for CSA's or Primary Statistical Areas.

Yeah, I thought the 4 million+ figure for Orlando's CSA seemed at least 1 to 1.5 million too high.

I also thought it was strange that Austin wasn't listed. Is it not a part of a CSA?

N90 Sep 15, 2019 2:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sam Hill (Post 8687384)
Being the giant nerd that I am, I pretty much have the CSA/MSA rankings memorized. :redface: Something seemed off when I saw that 2018 list. Orlando jumped up a bunch of spots and is now in between Minneapolis/St Paul and Seattle/Tacoma somehow? I looked it up to make sure I'm not crazy. Perhaps someone made some wacky edits to some wikipedia articles? The Census Bureau's data doesn't match the wikipedia articles for CSA's or Primary Statistical Areas.

CSA definitions were redefined last October. Orlando gained Lakeland, Phoenix got a CSA, and Austin lost its CSA in 2013 when Marble Falls was removed.

JManc Sep 15, 2019 2:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Belt (Post 8687370)
There's no reason to believe Texas cities won't slow down, especially compared to high tax, older established cities.

Houston is already slowing down to some extent and the rest of Texas could as well as the rest of the country improves economically opening up more options for people to work/ live rather than just the sunbelt cities. I just think it will at least top Boston in the next 10-11 years. I lived there (briefly) and much of the region is pretty stagnant where as virtually everything within 75 miles of downtown (Houston) is growing. Boston and the area around it is just loaded with tons of decent sized MSA's in their own right; Providence; Worcester, Nashua, Manchester, etc...

JAYNYC Sep 15, 2019 4:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc (Post 8687420)
Houston is already slowing down to some extent and the rest of Texas could as well as the rest of the country improves economically opening up more options for people to work/ live rather than just the sunbelt cities. I just think it will at least top Boston in the next 10-11 years. I lived there (briefly) and much of the region is pretty stagnant where as virtually everything within 75 miles of downtown is growing. Boston and the area around it is just loaded with tons of decent sized MSA's in their own right; Providence; Worcester, Nashua, Manchester, etc...

As of 2018, the Boston CSA had approximately 1,087,524 more residents than the Houston CSA (8,285,407 vs. 7,197,883).

Houston's CSA gained approximately 1,083,321 residents between 2010 and 2018.

Boston's CSA gained approximately 392,031 residents between 2010 and 2018.

So even if Boston's CSA only gained half as many residents (196,015) between 2018 and 2030 - a 12 year period - as it did during that 8 year period, Houston's CSA (which is slowing down as you already noted) would have to gain 1,283,539 residents between 2018 and 2030 just to tie Boston's CSA, and both of those scenarios appear unlikely.


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